OT: Thread About Nothing (part # who cares)

Emperoreddy

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Apr 13, 2010
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I spend a lot of time tracking hurricanes. It's a needy hobby of mine. This storms intensification is one of the craziest things I've seen.

One good thing Tampa has going for it is the wind shear that will weaken it, but it may not weaken it as much as they hope. Tampa is in for a rough one. That city has never experienced a storm of this strength and is not built to withstand a force like this.

It's trending toward hurricane phoenix territory and that's not a good thing...

Surge is the biggest problem for Tampa and a lot of that is already baked in. Water has a lot of energy.

The final track is going to be key there. If it lands just north of Tampa then the bay is going to get the worst surge in a worst case scenario.

If the key comes in south the bay will get spared the worst of the surge.
 

Patrik26

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My ex-MIL lives in Madeira Beach. Her condo complex suffered significant flooding from Helene. Milton, based on predictions, will destroy that complex. Thankfully, her niece was able to get her and bring her over to Ocala. Still in the path of the storm, but hopefully safer.


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Killing Joke

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hows belleair beach gonna fare? my family in chicago have a condo ground level facing beach west

gulf blvd and howard

its gonna get f***ed, right?
It depends on how it comes in and where it makes landfall. If it makes landfall and hits Pinellas count like some models and runs have shown, yea. If it hits south more near Bradenton or Sarasota like some other models and runs have shown, it will get a lot of wind, but not the insane wind from the eye and no insane surge.
 

Bleedred

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hows belleair beach gonna fare? my family in chicago have a condo ground level facing beach west

gulf blvd and howard

its gonna get f***ed, right?
It may have already been f***ed by Helene, I’m not sure. Treasure Island sure was. And that was just from storm surge.

I’m at the point where I’d rather spend a winter in Denver than another summer in Florida. And by summer I don’t mean June-August. I mean May-October.

It’s not that I particularly mind snow, I just don’t like cold weather. I don’t like 40-45 degrees and sunny any more than I like 30 degrees and snowing. I don’t really like a snowstorm, but a little bit of snow is no problem.

I’m really getting tired of it here. I’m embarrassingly sweaty at work in the summer. I look like a 300 pound guy ready to have a heart attack. You don’t know how often I have someone ask me “are you alright?” Because of how much I sweat. I’m not even 190 pounds though.

f*** Florida so much. No regrets though. I have made several hundred grand to my net worth with the value of this house going up. I’d need to sell it to see any of that money though.

And by the time this storm ends the insurance is gonna be more than I wanna pay. Whether it’s damaged or not. Still cheaper than renting a place, but ridiculous for a place that’s owned free and clear.
 

My3Sons

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It may have already been f***ed by Helene, I’m not sure. Treasure Island sure was. And that was just from storm surge.

I’m at the point where I’d rather spend a winter in Denver than another summer in Florida. And by summer I don’t mean June-August. I mean May-October.

It’s not that I particularly mind snow, I just don’t like cold weather. I don’t like 40-45 degrees and sunny any more than I like 30 degrees and snowing. I don’t really like a snowstorm, but a little bit of snow is no problem.

I’m really getting tired of it here. I’m embarrassingly sweaty at work in the summer. I look like a 300 pound guy ready to have a heart attack. You don’t know how often I have someone ask me “are you alright?” Because of how much I sweat. I’m not even 190 pounds though.

f*** Florida so much. No regrets though. I have made several hundred grand to my net worth with the value of this house going up. I’d need to sell it to see any of that money though.

And by the time this storm ends the insurance is gonna be more than I wanna pay. Whether it’s damaged or not. Still cheaper than renting a place, but ridiculous for a place that’s owned free and clear.
The rents will also increase to cover the added insurance
 
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Bleedred

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The rents will also increase to cover the added insurance
I can't afford to rent anywhere anyway (except for a room at a friend's house lol) unless I were to sell my house.

I think my cost to live at my house (not including any of the utilities) averages out to about $650 a month? Maybe it's closer to $700?

That's property tax + insurance.

Spoiler alert: Over 2/3rd's of that is the homeowners insurance.

Still, that's about $800-$1000 cheaper a month than renting a one bedroom. And I have 3 bedrooms and my own pool.

Fortunately, I bought this house in cash for $150k-something (it's on the title) in 2011. Zillow currently has me at $547k on the zestimate.

It would be a heist if I could sell the place before a potential real estate bubble burst.
 
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My3Sons

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I can't afford to rent anywhere anyway (except for a room at a friend's house lol) unless I were to sell my house.

I think my cost to live at my house (not including any of the utilities) averages out to about $650 a month? Maybe it's closer to $700?

That's property tax + insurance.

Spoiler alert: Over 2/3rd's of that is the homeowners insurance.

Still, that's about $800-$1000 cheaper a month than renting a one bedroom. And I have 3 bedrooms and my own pool.

Fortunately, I bought this house in cash for $150k-something (it's on the title) in 2011. Zillow currently has me at $547k on the zestimate.

It would be a heist if I could sell the place before a potential real estate bubble burst.
One idea is you rent it out. If you could get something north of $2k monthly for a 3 bedroom with a pool I’d at least look into it. Just a thought.
 
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NjDevsRR

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Just crazy stuff. I love meteorology (almost flunked out of Rutgers going after that dream), and the rapid intensification these storms are going through these days is insane, and I have never seen these storms go through eye wall replacement cycles as fast as they do now. And the amount of energy in the ocean fueling these monsters is scary.

IMG_9640.jpeg
 
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Satans Hockey

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Just crazy stuff. I love meteorology (almost flunked out of Rutgers going after that dream), and the rapid intensification these storms are going through these days is insane, and I have never seen these storms go through eye wall replacement cycles as fast as they do now. And the amount of energy in the ocean fueling these monsters is scary.

View attachment 913570

I don't know anything about it... He emphasizes the eye being tiny, he's doing that because I assume that's because there's less chance of it be less intense? Like the eye being wider would help maybe slow it down?
 

NjDevsRR

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I don't know anything about it... He emphasizes the eye being tiny, he's doing that because I assume that's because there's less chance of it be less intense? Like the eye being wider would help maybe slow it down?
So a smaller eye, higher wind speed but a smaller size of the hurricane. (Catastrophic damage near eye, not so much outside as the circulation is smaller)

Bigger eye. Less windspeed but a much larger wind field with a bigger damage path, but not as catastrophic at the eye.


This is starting to track to the Port Charlotte area like Ian. My parents are there. That area is still rebuilding from Ian.
 

My3Sons

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So a smaller eye, higher wind speed but a smaller size of the hurricane. (Catastrophic damage near eye, not so much outside as the circulation is smaller)

Bigger eye. Less windspeed but a much larger wind field with a bigger damage path, but not as catastrophic at the eye.


This is starting to track to the Port Charlotte area like Ian. My parents are there. That area is still rebuilding from Ian.
Hopefully they can evacuate and avoid the worst of it?
 
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Bleedred

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This is my first evacuation in 13 years. My friends evacuate their house because they live on the bay on an island, and they end up over my place for the storms. The whole family. I even have them put their boat in my yard. It's safer there than on a dock at their house. It would have been a mile away if they left it there for Helene.

He took the kids and pets to a hotel up in Georgia until it passes by. She's a nurse and stayed behind. I told her she can stay at my house, as it's safer than driving back and forth to their house between work, which could be half underwater. She'll be safe at the hospital when it hits. She's even working extra shifts for people who may be evacuating, and because the hospital could unfortunately be busy during this time and more help will be needed. I've been best friends with him for probably almost my whole life.

I'm down on the east coast at my friend's. He's on the road right now for work (he's a touring musician) and he's not gonna be home for another two weeks, but our friend (Cage Helmet who used to post here) lives like a block away. They're basically neighbors. He's over here keeping me company. He'll probably be here with my dog and I for a lot of this, but he lives with and takes care of his grandmother, so he'll probably be over there during the storm, just so she's not alone.

It feels a little safer over here, but it is a mobile home. We SHOULD be safe here.
 

Bleedred

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One idea is you rent it out. If you could get something north of $2k monthly for a 3 bedroom with a pool I’d at least look into it. Just a thought.
Zillow has the rent zestimate at $3200!+

I would rent it for $2k for 6 months. That's the pain and suffering discount to anyone that wants to be in this shit hole from May-November. Ideal for someone who doesn't plan to spend much time outdoors, like going to the beach or golfing or boating. You can't make plans here in the summer, especially August-September (and certainly so far in October this year) because you may only get a 10 minute warning before it start raining/thundering.

The pool is perfect for that, because you can run inside in 2 minutes.

If you like boating, the beach, golf, watersports, running/walking, etc, Florida isn't the place for you for half the year. It's Seattle with palm trees.
 
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Saugus

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Everybody stay safe down there. This one is looking like a monster.

I work for an insurance company, we’re used to seeing CAT storms. Helene was cause for worry, but Milton is looking “hold onto your butts” level bad.
 

My3Sons

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So today is John Lennon's 83rd birthday. Hard to know what we've been deprived of without him but it would have been something of significance.

As for Milton, if there is a silver lining it looks like the hurricane force winds are a relatively small circle. I'm not sure what the slight jog to the south means for the big population centers? Hopefully the storm weakens further before it hits land.
 
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Emperoreddy

Show Me What You Got!
Apr 13, 2010
133,619
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New Jersey, Exit 16E
Stay safe everyone. Looks like the worst is going to be right around Tampa Bay.

Rule of thumb. Run from water and hide from wind. Stay high and dry and bunker down someplace secure

Be careful with all the tornados. A f*** ton all over Florida today
 
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