Thoughts on this seasons Flames

[Some Other Flame]

Don't know how much stock one can put in performance during dead time when a team has all but been eliminated from the playoffs where there's no pressure and coaches tend to be a lot more tolerating.

In other words, unless ordered by higher ups otherwise, I don't expect Huska to be as forgiving to Kuzmenko's abysmal defensive play to start the season. His leash will be shorter. Same goes for Mantha and his lackadaisical play.

Both Andersson and Weegar have historically struggled with elevated minutes resulting in far more mental mistakes. And I suspect Huska will lean on them heavily given how inexperienced the rest of the defense is. And they're gonna miss Kylington's puck carrying abilities a lot more than folks realize.

If Sharangovich's shooting percentage drops back to his career average, that's about 6 less goals on the same number of shots. Coleman would drop 10 goals similarly.

You should have a look at the defensive roster from the 97 team. That's what rock bottom looks like.

Woof. Okay, maybe second worst then . Top five worst at least.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

I do. And I am not the only one.


It will not be the worst thing if we are up in the standings. It will show the moves that the team has made is wokring.

The new D-men are inexperienced, but not untalented. The zone system will compensate for some talent loss.

Fans do not cheer for their team to lose? Could have fooled me.

I wouldn't call it cheering for them to lose. At least not in my POV. I am just a realist, I look around the league and I see every team around us (except maybe Anaheim but they have a lot of untapped potential) has clearly improved their roster since the start of last season. On the other hand have lost our #1 center, 4/6 of our very strong d-core, 2 of our grindiest middle 6 players, and our Vezina caliber starting goaltender. I simply expect this team to finish with at most 75 points but probably closer to 70. If the cutoff in the west for the playoffs is close to 100 points again I have a very tough time seeing us make it.

 

[Double Dion]

I do. And I am not the only one.


It will not be the worst thing if we are up in the standings. It will show the moves that the team has made is wokring.

The new D-men are inexperienced, but not untalented. The zone system will compensate for some talent loss.

Fans do not cheer for their team to lose? Could have fooled me.

You're usually more rational. What makes you think that? I'm genuinely curious. This is a group that has lost Lindholm, Hanifin, Mangiapane, Tanev, Markstrom and Zadorov. They weren't a playoff team either of the last 2 years and our key players are aging. That's 3 top 4 D, one top 6 C and a top 10 goalie out from a team that finished 23rd last year. (I'm noting Mangiapane was subbed out for Mantha and Kylington for Bean)

 

[Yepthatsme]

Let me try and explain this a different way. If I remove Kuzmenko, Mantha, Lomberg, etc from the equation and replace them with Lindholm, Mangiapane, Dube, etc. The ixG is actually much higher.
Kuzmenko/Mantha/Lomberg total for 46.27
while Lindholm/Mangiapane/Dube (24.32+25.51+9.13) total for 58.96. Nearly 13 extra expected goals. That's not even factoring in the 4 defensemen we swapped out who should raise it more.

Again I agree our powerplay will be better but I don't think you get how much worse our 5v5 play will be. Sure Kuzmenko is useful in the offensive zone specifically around the net but if we can't get anywhere near there he is borderline useless. We have been a possession style team for like the last 5 years. That style of play is not going to change this season but it will be vastly less dominant without the quality of blue line we had in past seasons. Yes in theory offensive forwards should increase scoring but unfortunately you can't win a 3v5 or 4v5 without superstar talents like McDavid.

I never said it was impossible to score more goals I just say expecting a 15-20 goal increase is not at all realistic. A 7 goal fall off is far more realistic. I think we will be on par with the Senators from last season who has 250 GF and 281 GA

That’s the biggest difference between expected goals and real goals to be honest. Mangiapane’s expected goals were extremely high due to his lines play style and a lot less his individual ability, same reason Backlund and Coleman’s iXG were actually much higher than their real output as well, and I believe anyone who plays with them would have inflated numbers. I don’t think a single person actually believes last seasons Mangiapane should score more than Mantha, or last seasons Lindholm should score more than last seasons (previous seasons he was obviously a much more valuable player).

You can keep parroting that we will be worse 5v5, but not providing any evidence other than our defense will be worse. This offensive style you keep saying we will be losing out on isn’t Calgary’s style at all, we don’t rely on attacking the zone which in transition and with numbers much at all. How many goals were scored last year total with rush offense, or off a counterattack in transition creating an odd man chance? Other than Kadri’s line, we don’t depend on rush offense at all. Tanev and Hanifin were fantastic at suppressing chances, and we will get scored on a lot more from that spot. Hanifin and Tanev both had a great first pass when they were under pressure as well and could get us moving quick the other direction for a counter attack.That’s the type of offense that is conducive to that type of plays that you think we will suffer with out. You keep saying we are a possession style, but I think you misinterpret that as players who drive possession in turn must create offense, when the majority of our offense comes from different styles. The majority of our chances came from chipping it in then retrieving and establishing in the zone, or slightly less often pulling up inside the line, finding an open player, then once again maintaining possession. Plays that usually you aren’t reliant on attacking with speed and in odd man situations. So yes, we will bleed chances at a much higher rate this year, and likely spend a bit more defensive zone time (although ending possessions actually wasn’t one of Tanev’s many strengths as much as preventing rush chances and limited high danger chances in the zone). But we will also be much more dangerous when we aren’t in our zone than last season, and have added a couple more lethal shots to our lineup full time next season (Kuzmenko, Mantha, Coronato) to capitalize on zone time.

How long has this team’s biggest complaint been we can establish in the zone but don’t create or finish much high danger chances? That’s been our teams biggest criticism and a legitimate issue for years, and that’s actually had steps taken forward to address it. Adding 2 legitimate dangerous offensive players to this roster in the O-zone is exactly what we needed with our system to have people who can help create and finish high danger chances, yet you’re hand waving it because you think Tanev helped more for creating offense than an actual offensive player.

Here are some actual numbers to disprove what you’re trying to allude to. Here are some xGF/60 of our pairings we rolled last year:

Kylington-Andersson: 2.69 xG/60
Weegar-Andersson: 2.64 xG/60
Weegar-Miromanov: 2.64 xG/60
Hanifin-Tanev: 2.62 xG/60

Yes we will miss Tanev and Hanifin, but offensively, we have plenty of pair options that drive offense just as well or only with a slight downgrade (I think Bahl-Andersson will be a better pair than last season’s Kylington-Andersson). It’s their defensive acumen that will be missed, horribly.

 

[Backlund]

I do. And I am not the only one.


It will not be the worst thing if we are up in the standings. It will show the moves that the team has made is wokring.

The new D-men are inexperienced, but not untalented. The zone system will compensate for some talent loss.

Fans do not cheer for their team to lose? Could have fooled me.

The middle of the standings while missing the playoffs is the worst place a franchise can be but yet every year Flames fans seem to invite this kind of idiocy onto the team. Short term pain for longer term success isn't cheering for losses. Why is this concept so hard for people to understand? Even if this team somehow makes the playoffs, which they won't, they will get swept in the first round. What's the point?

 

[DomBarr]

I do. And I am not the only one.


It will not be the worst thing if we are up in the standings. It will show the moves that the team has made is wokring.

The new D-men are inexperienced, but not untalented. The zone system will compensate for some talent loss.

Fans do not cheer for their team to lose? Could have fooled me.

Being up in the standings is ok if ownership holds the line this time and doesn’t push for trades to accelerate the rebuild or use picks and prospects to grab rentals and still sells off pending UFAs like Kuzmenko and Martha.
That won’t happen so it IS the worst thing that can happen

There’s a reason fans are ok and somewhat eager for the rebuild. Calgary has been a meh franchise since the 90’s never being the true contender and never really bottoming out. Now the team has announced the retool with a hopeful timeframe of 3 yrs the fans want to come out with some truly elite players and a team that looks Like a contender.

 

[Mobiandi]

Weegar-Miromanov
Bahl-Andersson
Bean-Pachal
Solovyov/Hanley

It feels like we’ll be perpetually down by 2 goals just looking at this group on paper

 

[DomBarr]

Just to be clear this team has to be bottom 10 or top 10 otherwise Montreal is gonna get a good to really good pick from us next season

 

[Bounces R Way]

I've already come to terms with being bad, plenty of years the Flames have been bad. Just ask that we're not bad and boring. Get in there and mix it up. Score some goals, take some risks, punch a guy in the mouth. If a young guy comes out his first shift with some energy give him a big night minutes wise. You fired Darryl to be less rigid and serious, let's see a little gunslinger hockey. I can abide bad(if as a means to an end), I will find it hard cheering for boring or soft.

It's a sad sight watching paid vets fold up shop and go through the motions. AKA the James Neal. I understand not having your best stuff every night, that's a lot to ask for a team that will likely not have much to play for. Hope to see minimal amounts of that but I'm sure there'll be some. It's up to Backs, Huberdeau, Weegar, Kadri, Ras, and Coleman to set the tone in that locker room. If they actually want to be part of a solution for the next number of years here they still have a significant part to play in it. Not having a solid veteran presence can hinder a rebuild badly. Just play with some professional pride and go out there trying to earn that great big paycheck is all I ask.

 

[Bond]

It will probably be the worst Flames hockey I have watched as I was pretty young when it was the young guns era. It won't be as depressing as the first Huberdeau season though

 

[Body Checker]

NHL regular season is not like the playoffs. There are points to be had every night. Flames have an interesting mix of veterans and youth ready pros. We can easily be in that 16-26 group that is within playoff spots into March. I just don’t see us in a bottom 3 spot for the season IF our veterans show up to play.

 

[HighLifeMan]

I do think this team will be competitive on a nightly basis which is what I think you want, but they will still lose a ton of games. Draft in the 4-7 range, hopefully get some draft lottery luck, and continue to stockpile assets.

There really is no blatantly stinky teams this year like Chicago and San Jose last year. I think i'd be surprised to see a team with less than 60 points on the year.

 

[Fig]

I do think this team will be competitive on a nightly basis which is what I think you want, but they will still lose a ton of games. Draft in the 4-7 range, hopefully get some draft lottery luck, and continue to stockpile assets.

There really is no blatantly stinky teams this year like Chicago and San Jose last year. I think i'd be surprised to see a team with less than 60 points on the year.

I think I'll be elated if the team loses a lot of 1-2 goal games (ie: ENG trying to tie or OTL etc.). Just don't get destroyed on a nightly basis and give different players a chance to show their development and improvement.

Anything about that is gravy.

 

[Double Dion]

I do think this team will be competitive on a nightly basis which is what I think you want, but they will still lose a ton of games. Draft in the 4-7 range, hopefully get some draft lottery luck, and continue to stockpile assets.

There really is no blatantly stinky teams this year like Chicago and San Jose last year. I think i'd be surprised to see a team with less than 60 points on the year.

I agree with this. I'd expand your draft range though between 3 and 10. We just can't conceivably be worse than San Jose and Chicago.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

That’s the biggest difference between expected goals and real goals to be honest. Mangiapane’s expected goals were extremely high due to his lines play style and a lot less his individual ability, same reason Backlund and Coleman’s iXG were actually much higher than their real output as well, and I believe anyone who plays with them would have inflated numbers. I don’t think a single person actually believes last seasons Mangiapane should score more than Mantha, or last seasons Lindholm should score more than last seasons (previous seasons he was obviously a much more valuable player).

You can keep parroting that we will be worse 5v5, but not providing any evidence other than our defense will be worse. This offensive style you keep saying we will be losing out on isn’t Calgary’s style at all, we don’t rely on attacking the zone which in transition and with numbers much at all. How many goals were scored last year total with rush offense, or off a counterattack in transition creating an odd man chance? Other than Kadri’s line, we don’t depend on rush offense at all. Tanev and Hanifin were fantastic at suppressing chances, and we will get scored on a lot more from that spot. Hanifin and Tanev both had a great first pass when they were under pressure as well and could get us moving quick the other direction for a counter attack.That’s the type of offense that is conducive to that type of plays that you think we will suffer with out. You keep saying we are a possession style, but I think you misinterpret that as players who drive possession in turn must create offense, when the majority of our offense comes from different styles. The majority of our chances came from chipping it in then retrieving and establishing in the zone, or slightly less often pulling up inside the line, finding an open player, then once again maintaining possession. Plays that usually you aren’t reliant on attacking with speed and in odd man situations. So yes, we will bleed chances at a much higher rate this year, and likely spend a bit more defensive zone time (although ending possessions actually wasn’t one of Tanev’s many strengths as much as preventing rush chances and limited high danger chances in the zone). But we will also be much more dangerous when we aren’t in our zone than last season, and have added a couple more lethal shots to our lineup full time next season (Kuzmenko, Mantha, Coronato) to capitalize on zone time.

How long has this team’s biggest complaint been we can establish in the zone but don’t create or finish much high danger chances? That’s been our teams biggest criticism and a legitimate issue for years, and that’s actually had steps taken forward to address it. Adding 2 legitimate dangerous offensive players to this roster in the O-zone is exactly what we needed with our system to have people who can help create and finish high danger chances, yet you’re hand waving it because you think Tanev helped more for creating offense than an actual offensive player.

Here are some actual numbers to disprove what you’re trying to allude to. Here are some xGF/60 of our pairings we rolled last year:

Kylington-Andersson: 2.69 xG/60
Weegar-Andersson: 2.64 xG/60
Weegar-Miromanov: 2.64 xG/60
Hanifin-Tanev: 2.62 xG/60

Yes we will miss Tanev and Hanifin, but offensively, we have plenty of pair options that drive offense just as well or only with a slight downgrade (I think Bahl-Andersson will be a better pair than last season’s Kylington-Andersson). It’s their defensive acumen that will be missed, horribly.

I used individual expected goals which is based solely on that players own shots on net. Not the line they played on. Mangiapane's ixG is much higher than his actual goal total because the puck didn't find the back of the net in situations where it should have (ie hit the post, goalie made a paddle save, etc).

I really don't get it. You keep bringing up the rush and I keep telling you that is not Calgary's style. Florida is a rush team. Tampa is a rush team. Calgary plays a high possession style game. Teams like Carolina, Dallas, Seattle do the exact same thing. Rarely does Calgary ever score from a stretch pass and breakaway or a sudden 2v1 going the other way. Most of the Flames goals are scored through attrition. Establish zone pressure, tire the opposition out by not letting them get the puck back or change, then score. This type of play is very reliant on all 5 player on the ice and not an individual effort. Sure there will probably be times when Kadri just skates the puck down ice and shoots then Kuzmenko cleans up a rebound, but I would not be shocked at all if all 5 guys (hell even more if we do an offensive zone change) touch the puck before it goes in for the majority of our goals. The point is breaking out of our own zone then establishing that offensive zone pressure and sustaining it will be much harder with a much weaker blue line. And no Tanev was actually very good on the offensive zone cycle, not Hanifin's level where he would literally skate around the opponent's net with the puck like 4+ times a game but Tanev was quite mobile in the offensive zone. There is a reason Tanev ranked 8th in the league in 22/23 for 5v5 CF/60 (200+ min), and 38th in 21/22.

 

[DomBarr]

I agree with this. I'd expand your draft range though between 3 and 10. We just can't conceivably be worse than San Jose and Chicago.

really? I can conceive it but I can picture the Flames picking anywhere from #1 (earned not just lotto luck) to 20th all for the same reasons. The goalies have a grand total of like 99 games among the 3 of them. Then the Flames have 2 top 3 dmen and the rest are bottom pair (until proven otherwise).
If goalies and d go worst case they finish dead last in the league but if they put it together

 

[Khrox]

Just ask that we're not bad and boring.

I'm okay with boring, but only on ONE condition, and that is that the guys are actively trying. If it's boring because they're phoning it in, I'll be upset. If it's boring in a sense of there are just some guys who play styles that are boring (Derek Ryan is a good example. Safe, simple, boring, but his career has always been that style. He works hard, but it's a very boring style. That's the style he plays and I'm okay with it. Now if someone like Pospisil, Lomberg, or Kadri start playing a boring style because they're phoning it in, I'm gonna be pissed because that isn't the style they normally play)

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

I agree with this. I'd expand your draft range though between 3 and 10. We just can't conceivably be worse than San Jose and Chicago.

I think Chicago could absolutely be better than us. Seth Jones takes a lot of flack for his contract but he's really only 1-2M overpaid. Bedard could quite possibly hit 40 goals and 100 points this year now that he has a legitimate supporting cast around him. They improved immensely defensively with the additions of Martinez, Brodie and Teravainen. Not to mention rookie Alex Vlasic was statistically the best defensive dman in the league last year. Brossiot (though going to miss the first month or so) will provide them much more stable goaltending in duo with Mrazek. Taylor Hall and Connor Murphy will be returning too. I guess the main question with that roster is who centers the 2nd line if Nazar isn't quite ready. Chicago finished the season with 52 points last year, I could definitely see them getting 20-30 more points this season than that.

I'm not saying we will finish below them but I would not be surprised if they finish much higher in the standings than people think. A generational talent can really fast track a teams success.

Even though San Jose really bolstered their forward group with the additions of Celebrini and Smith, along with Toffoli (especially if Couture returns too) their defense is still very likely worse than ours. I doubt they are 47 points level bad again but I can't see them getting 70 points. I do think they can get 60 though.

 

[Yepthatsme]

I used individual expected goals which is based solely on that players own shots on net. Not the line they played on. Mangiapane's ixG is much higher than his actual goal total because the puck didn't find the back of the net in situations where it should have (ie hit the post, goalie made a paddle save, etc).

I really don't get it. You keep bringing up the rush and I keep telling you that is not Calgary's style. Florida is a rush team. Tampa is a rush team. Calgary plays a high possession style game. Teams like Carolina, Dallas, Seattle do the exact same thing. Rarely does Calgary ever score from a stretch pass and breakaway or a sudden 2v1 going the other way. Most of the Flames goals are scored through attrition. Establish zone pressure, tire the opposition out by not letting them get the puck back or change, then score. This type of play is very reliant on all 5 player on the ice and not an individual effort. Sure there will probably be times when Kadri just skates the puck down ice and shoots then Kuzmenko cleans up a rebound, but I would not be shocked at all if all 5 guys (hell even more if we do an offensive zone change) touch the puck before it goes in for the majority of our goals. The point is breaking out of our own zone then establishing that offensive zone pressure and sustaining it will be much harder with a much weaker blue line. And no Tanev was actually very good on the offensive zone cycle, not Hanifin's level where he would literally skate around the opponent's net with the puck like 4+ times a game but Tanev was quite mobile in the offensive zone. There is a reason Tanev ranked 8th in the league in 22/23 for 5v5 CF/60 (200+ min), and 38th in 21/22.

iXG is in no way an individual stat, sure it’s how a player is expected to finish the chances they get, but it has no way of differentiating who created that chance. If you don’t understand that you don’t know the stat well enough to quote it. But sure, lines and playstyles have nothing to do with it. Not like Backlund had 27 iXG the previous season, while Coleman had 25, or the year before that where Coleman had 21 where Backlund had 20. That line has no history of producing a high amount of iXG relative to real totals… Do you also believe that Mangiapane having vastly different possession stats away from that line is coincidence too?

I keep bringing up the rush because that’s the style of offense you’re trying to reference. Starting from our own zone and moving the puck up ice for offense, you have stated that multiple times that’s what we will be missing out on which like you pointed out, isn’t the style of offense Calgary relies on. If you think Tanev is a high end puck distributor/mobile defenseman in the Ozone blueline, with a career high of 18 assists, I legitimately don’t know what to tell you.

Once again though, the stats prove you wrong unequivocally. Here’s how our pairs faired after the trades compared to Hanifin-Tanev:

Kylington-Andersson: 2.69 xGF/60
Weegar-Miromanov: 2.64 xGF/60
Hanifin-Tanev: 2.62 xGF/60

Once again, literally lateral movement post trade on expected offense which is what your entire argument is based on. Your claims are just quantifiably false. Now where is the difference that the team will feel? Right where I’ve said all along, team defense:

Weegar-Miromanov: 1.62 xGA/60
Hanifin-Tanev: 2.02 xGA/60
Kylington-Andersson: 2.47 xGA/60

With a huge shout out to Miromanov, who stepped in after missing a year and a half of hockey with <20GP under his belt and played 21 minutes a night of above water hockey on a bad team. But yea, the stats lay out exactly how we should expect to see the season play out. Increased offense from improvements in forwards with still an offensive orientated blue line, that lets our net get shelled night in and night out. Bahl should be a much more stabilizing force than Kylington, but expecting him to excel in top 4 minutes at his stage of development isn’t a sure thing to say the least.

 

[Nanuuk]

You're usually more rational. What makes you think that? I'm genuinely curious. This is a group that has lost Lindholm, Hanifin, Mangiapane, Tanev, Markstrom and Zadorov. They weren't a playoff team either of the last 2 years and our key players are aging. That's 3 top 4 D, one top 6 C and a top 10 goalie out from a team that finished 23rd last year. (I'm noting Mangiapane was subbed out for Mantha and Kylington for Bean)

Sorry, I didn't see your post until today.

I just feel that our overall team speed has improved. We're younger and the talent (key word) Conroy brought in, while inexperienced is ready for prime time.

We lack a #1 C, yes, but we've been there before and had very good teams. An opening is there for Zary or Pospisil (I don't think Sharky is the guy).

We have two solid centres with Kadri and Backlund, maybe even three with Rooney returning to form last season. I know some will scoff at that, and while Schwindt might take he job at camp, I though Rooney was more than adequate as the 4C.

We have very good wingers in Huberdeau, Sharangovich, Mantha, Pospisil, Zary, Kuzmenko, Coleman, and Lomberg. There will be a competition between Pelletier and Coronato.

At D, Weegar is a stud. Andersson, if he returns to form, is solid. Miromanov is the hidden gem from the Hanifin trade. He's going to be a star. Bahl is a steady, low event kind of guy. Hits a lot. Won't score like Zadorov, but I'm guessing we won't miss that. Bean is an adequate Kylington replacement. Pachal was a waiver wire find. I found him to be very solid back there.

So we've lost some offence is Hanifin that will be replaced to a degree by Miromanov. We lost some toughness and a bit of scoring in Zadorov that Bahl will pick up. We lost Shill, but Bean will be an adequate replacement. Pachal is an upgrade on Gilbert. And Hanley is a solid, solid 7th guy.

And we will see one of Solovyov, Poirier make the squad.

At goal, even though Marky we've lost Markstrom I have the feeling that the Vladar/Wolf tandem will stand tall.

It will be year two of the zone defensive system.

We will have a new PP coach and hopefully a strong PP from the end of last year will rack up points and games for us.

Colour me optimistic. If we hang in there like we did last year, the changes Conroy has made will be paying off.

If not, come TDL, a couple more judicious trades will be made.

 

[Yepthatsme]

Sorry, I didn't see your post until today.

I just feel that our overall team speed has improved. We're younger and the talent (key word) Conroy brought in, while inexperienced is ready for prime time.

We lack a #1 C, yes, but we've been there before and had very good teams. An opening is there for Zary or Pospisil (I don't think Sharky is the guy).

We have two solid centres with Kadri and Backlund, maybe even three with Rooney returning to form last season. I know some will scoff at that, and while Schwindt might take he job at camp, I though Rooney was more than adequate as the 4C.

We have very good wingers in Huberdeau, Sharangovich, Mantha, Pospisil, Zary, Kuzmenko, Coleman, and Lomberg. There will be a competition between Pelletier and Coronato.

At D, Weegar is a stud. Andersson, if he returns to form, is solid. Miromanov is the hidden gem from the Hanifin trade. He's going to be a star. Bahl is a steady, low event kind of guy. Hits a lot. Won't score like Zadorov, but I'm guessing we won't miss that. Bean is an adequate Kylington replacement. Pachal was a waiver wire find. I found him to be very solid back there.

So we've lost some offence is Hanifin that will be replaced to a degree by Miromanov. We lost some toughness and a bit of scoring in Zadorov that Bahl will pick up. We lost Shill, but Bean will be an adequate replacement. Pachal is an upgrade on Gilbert. And Hanley is a solid, solid 7th guy.

And we will see one of Solovyov, Poirier make the squad.

At goal, even though Marky we've lost Markstrom I have the feeling that the Vladar/Wolf tandem will stand tall.

It will be year two of the zone defensive system.

We will have a new PP coach and hopefully a strong PP from the end of last year will rack up points and games for us.

Colour me optimistic. If we hang in there like we did last year, the changes Conroy has made will be paying off.

If not, come TDL, a couple more judicious trades will be made.

Kadri gets way too much slander around here and is very unappreciated. 18 teams in the league last year didn’t have a single centre with as many points as Kadri did, including 6 playoff teams. He did it playing almost exclusively with two rookies, who paced for 44 points and 31 points. Unless you subscribe to the idea there are only 10-20 1C’s in the league, he is a low end one but definitely there.

I’m really hoping Zary gets switched to centre this season after his test run last year, partly because I think it balances out our offense nicely, and partly because it sets up a pretty great line of Mantha-Kadri-Kuzmenko. Can call it the trade bait line, just all offensive usage to pad their values, with great counting stats and a terrible plus-minus. Think Kadri and Kuzmenko each have a shot at 80 points with that usage and linemates, and it sets up a great spot for one/both of Coronato and Pelletier if trades happen.

 

[Double Dion]

Sorry, I didn't see your post until today.

I just feel that our overall team speed has improved. We're younger and the talent (key word) Conroy brought in, while inexperienced is ready for prime time.

We lack a #1 C, yes, but we've been there before and had very good teams. An opening is there for Zary or Pospisil (I don't think Sharky is the guy).

We have two solid centres with Kadri and Backlund, maybe even three with Rooney returning to form last season. I know some will scoff at that, and while Schwindt might take he job at camp, I though Rooney was more than adequate as the 4C.

We have very good wingers in Huberdeau, Sharangovich, Mantha, Pospisil, Zary, Kuzmenko, Coleman, and Lomberg. There will be a competition between Pelletier and Coronato.

At D, Weegar is a stud. Andersson, if he returns to form, is solid. Miromanov is the hidden gem from the Hanifin trade. He's going to be a star. Bahl is a steady, low event kind of guy. Hits a lot. Won't score like Zadorov, but I'm guessing we won't miss that. Bean is an adequate Kylington replacement. Pachal was a waiver wire find. I found him to be very solid back there.

So we've lost some offence is Hanifin that will be replaced to a degree by Miromanov. We lost some toughness and a bit of scoring in Zadorov that Bahl will pick up. We lost Shill, but Bean will be an adequate replacement. Pachal is an upgrade on Gilbert. And Hanley is a solid, solid 7th guy.

And we will see one of Solovyov, Poirier make the squad.

At goal, even though Marky we've lost Markstrom I have the feeling that the Vladar/Wolf tandem will stand tall.

It will be year two of the zone defensive system.

We will have a new PP coach and hopefully a strong PP from the end of last year will rack up points and games for us.

Colour me optimistic. If we hang in there like we did last year, the changes Conroy has made will be paying off.

If not, come TDL, a couple more judicious trades will be made.

I agree with many of your points. Weegar is a really strong 2 way defenseman. We just had 2 of those last year and were still 24th. Losing the pairing of Hanifin and Tanev will gut this team defensively. I do see Miromanov differently than you. To me he's a bottom pairing defender at best who is a #2 PPQB. I think he was very propped up by Weegar.

Andersson is a bit of an enigma. He either looks like a #1 defenseman or a #4 depending on the stretch of the season. I think he'll struggle anchoring our 2nd pair unless he gets back to his pre scooter injury form. I haven't found him very good since that incident.

Guys like Pachal and Bean are adequate #6 defensemen. I suppose there is still some slight upside with Bean, but not tons.

I agree with you on Zary and Pospisil. I think one or both might be centers. I'm particularly interested in seeing Pospisil as a 3C. I think his pace, defensive work and motor could have him in position at both ends of the ice. He's not great with the offensive instincts, but he's good with the defensive ones and can fly. Zary might be a 2C. He's got the brain and did well in limited games at the end of last season.

My question is at what point does Kadri stop looking like a 1st/2nd line tweener C and Backlund like a 2/3 tweener C? I thought Backlund did take a very small step backwards last season. Kadri just came off the 2nd best season of his career. Can he repeat that?

We have some wingers, but many of them are not the responsible guys we have had in the past. Kuzmenko and Mantha are horrific in their own end. Huberdeau is quite bad. Sharangovich was good defensively in NJ, but wasn't for us last year. Coleman is just good everywhere, but I'm not expecting 30 again. I feel like people are expecting too much from Lomberg. He's quick, but he's really an NHL tweener we paid a lot to add some sandpaper to the lineup.

I do think our PP will be substantially better, but I think that improvement will be made up for by our PK being much worse. Lindholm, Tanev and Hanifin were 3 of our top 4 PKers. Mangiapane was on the 2nd unit.

We'll see what happens, but I think it's far more likely we finish bottom 5 than compete for a playoff spot.

 

[Rubi]

I'm thinking that Wolf will gain a lot of experience this year as I suspect he'll see a lot of rubber thrown at him with Bean, Bahl, Hanley, Pachal, and Miromanov on defence.
Hopefully he doesn't get discouraged.

 

[Nanuuk]

I agree with many of your points. Weegar is a really strong 2 way defenseman. We just had 2 of those last year and were still 24th. Losing the pairing of Hanifin and Tanev will gut this team defensively. I do see Miromanov differently than you. To me he's a bottom pairing defender at best who is a #2 PPQB. I think he was very propped up by Weegar.

Andersson is a bit of an enigma. He either looks like a #1 defenseman or a #4 depending on the stretch of the season. I think he'll struggle anchoring our 2nd pair unless he gets back to his pre scooter injury form. I haven't found him very good since that incident.

Guys like Pachal and Bean are adequate #6 defensemen. I suppose there is still some slight upside with Bean, but not tons.

I agree with you on Zary and Pospisil. I think one or both might be centers. I'm particularly interested in seeing Pospisil as a 3C. I think his pace, defensive work and motor could have him in position at both ends of the ice. He's not great with the offensive instincts, but he's good with the defensive ones and can fly. Zary might be a 2C. He's got the brain and did well in limited games at the end of last season.

My question is at what point does Kadri stop looking like a 1st/2nd line tweener C and Backlund like a 2/3 tweener C? I thought Backlund did take a very small step backwards last season. Kadri just came off the 2nd best season of his career. Can he repeat that?

We have some wingers, but many of them are not the responsible guys we have had in the past. Kuzmenko and Mantha are horrific in their own end. Huberdeau is quite bad. Sharangovich was good defensively in NJ, but wasn't for us last year. Coleman is just good everywhere, but I'm not expecting 30 again. I feel like people are expecting too much from Lomberg. He's quick, but he's really an NHL tweener we paid a lot to add some sandpaper to the lineup.

I do think our PP will be substantially better, but I think that improvement will be made up for by our PK being much worse. Lindholm, Tanev and Hanifin were 3 of our top 4 PKers. Mangiapane was on the 2nd unit.

We'll see what happens, but I think it's far more likely we finish bottom 5 than compete for a playoff spot.

The stats don't back up the view that Kuzmenko and Mantha are horrible defensively. Sharangovich slid from his Jersey stint, but still wasn't bad.

Kuzmenko - CF% (even strength) 54.4, oZs%, 66.8 (ok he's sheltered a lot), Takeaways 27, Giveaways 24 (ratio 1.12:1)
Mantha - CF% 51.8, oZS% 49.3, Takeaways 23, Giveaways 22 (ratio 1.04:1)
Sharangovich - CF% 50.0, oZs% 59.5, Takeaways 35, Giveaways 39 (ratio 1:1.14)

I always use the takeaway/giveaway measure as a tell-tale sign of the effectiveness of a player and it generally holds true. If the ratio is negative they're coughing the puck up too much. If the ratio is positive, they're checking and getting the puck.

For comparisons sake,

Backlund - CF% 53.5, oZs% 37.5, Takeaways 61, Giveaways 56 (ratio 1.089:1)

A simple view perhaps, but it works for me.

As far as Kadri and Backs taking a step back goes, perhaps. It is difficult to attribute that to a possible down year or to the aging process. Given the way professional athletes train and take care of their bodies these days I don't think it necessarily follows that at age 33 or 35 they're done.

I'm not expecting anything from Lombo other than grit, a speedy forecheck, and leadership. If he happens to light a fire on the 4 line and they rack up some points, stir the pot, and be responsible defensively, it is a huge win.

Lomberg - CF% 50.0, oZs% 46.2, Takeaways 14, Giveaways 14 (ratio 1:1)

Go Flames go!

 

[Bounces R Way]

Never got Treliving's fascination for defensive wingers anyway. Sure have a couple like Frolik or Coleman or Mangiapane but there's no need for a roster full of them. Jarnkrok, Brouwer, Nordstrom, Lazar, Granlund were any of these guys net positives?

Wing is the least impactful position defensively. Get the puck off the wall and out of the zone and get in the dman's shooting lane. No matter what system you're playing that's really what it boils down to.