Player Discussion Thomas Chabot (D) Part 2

[Loach]

I’m not gonna lie, some of the article was a bit much, calling Chabot-Jensen the top pair and then referencing the Karlsson years and peak dominance.

But Chabot still deserves credit, he’s had a nice bounce back season and it’s true that it’s the only pairing that is producing any offence at even strength for us. As much as we focus on the lack of secondary scoring from our forwards, it might be more driven by the fact that two of our defensive pairs have produced virtually

Check out SoA's link in the Kleven thread

 

[Micklebot]

Tell me you don't watch Sens games without saying you don't watch Sens games.

I mean, if your memory goes back further than the current losing streak, I'd say the opinion that Chabot's season has been strong still holds up pretty well,

The stats for Stu and Batherson away from Chabot really are more indicative of how much Sanderson has struggled though.

 

[PlayOn]

Check out SoA's link in the Kleven thread

That’s fair. Tbh the whole team has sucked the past three games imo, so I am not reading too much into that just yet.

But it’s fair to say Chabot’s consistency is still a question mark. Guess we’ll see how he plays going forward.

 

[Yost]

Tell me you don't watch Sens games without saying you don't watch Sens games.

Can you elaborate?

I’m not gonna lie, some of the article was a bit much, calling Chabot-Jensen the top pair and then referencing the Karlsson years and peak dominance.

But Chabot still deserves credit, he’s had a nice bounce back season and it’s true that it’s the only pairing that is producing any offence at even strength for us. As much as we focus on the lack of secondary scoring from our forwards, it might be more driven by the fact that two of our defensive pairs have produced virtually nothing.

Chabot is the most utilized defender at EV and the most regular EV pairing has been Chabot/Jensen. Some of this is I’m sure because of Green being cognizant of Sanderson and the penalty kill need, but they’re just six minutes split there this year. Thought that was interesting.

 

[Xspyrit]

Our defense without Chabot has ZERO offensive ability... another reason why it was stupid to let go Brannstrom just so TWO of Hamonic, Kleven and JBD would play every game of the season. Don't need hindsight to know this, I kept banging that drum in the offseason. That and Amadio over Joseph... and Perron signing (although I dont blame him for his underperformance)

Sanderson is supposed to reach another level but it hasn't been happening so far

I know some people won't like that but, since 2022-23 :

Sanderson : 40 ESP in 176 GP -9, 16:57 ES TOI/GP, 3.01 xGF/60, 2.67 xGA/60, 52.94% xGF%

Brannstrom : 42 ESP in 166 GP +13, 14:12 ES TOI/GP, 2.91 xGF/60, 2.42 xGA/60, 54.61% xGF%

Chabot : 53 ESP in 139 GP -12, 20:19 ES TOI/GP, 3.08 xGF/60, 2.79 xGA/60, 52.45% xGF%

Seriously, Brannstrom has the 23th best xGF% since 2022-23 (among 186 D-men who played at least 1500 ES mins) and 7 of the guys ahead are Canes D-men, a team system that is magical for any player analytically speaking

Why the f*** did we let him go? Oh yeah 5'10

 

[Erik Alfredsson]

Our defense without Chabot has ZERO offensive ability... another reason why it was stupid to let go Brannstrom just so TWO of Hamonic, Kleven and JBD would play every game of the season. Don't need hindsight to know this, I kept banging that drum in the offseason. That and Amadio over Joseph...

Sanderson is supposed to reach another level but it hasn't been happening so far

I know some people won't like that but, since 2022-23 :

Sanderson : 40 ESP in 176 GP -9, 16:57 ES TOI/GP, 3.01 xGF/60, 2.67 xGA/60, 52.94% xGF%

Brannstrom : 42 ESP in 166 GP +13, 14:12 ES TOI/GP, 2.91 xGF/60, 2.42 xGA/60, 54.61% xGF%

Chabot : 53 ESP in 139 GP -12, 20:19 ES TOI/GP, 3.08 xGF/60, 2.79 xGA/60, 52.45% xGF%

Seriously, Brannstrom has the 23th best xGF% since 2022-23 (among 186 D-men who played at least 1500 ES mins) and 7 of the guys ahead are Canes D-men, a team system that is magical for any player analytically speaking

Why the f*** did we let him go? Oh yeah 5'10

Brannstrom is playing limited minutes on a very good team. You seriously think he'd look anywhere near as good on this Sens team?

 

[PlayOn]

Can you elaborate?


Chabot is the most utilized defender at EV and the most regular EV pairing has been Chabot/Jensen. Some of this is I’m sure because of Green being cognizant of Sanderson and the penalty kill need, but they’re just six minutes split there this year. Thought that was interesting.

Good to know, thanks! Is Sanderson not playing significantly harder minutes? Genuinely asking, I know you referenced in the article Chabot takes on some of the toughest opponents but I’m not sure what the gap is between them in terms of competition they face.

 

[Loach]

Can you elaborate?


Chabot is the most utilized defender at EV and the most regular EV pairing has been Chabot/Jensen. Some of this is I’m sure because of Green being cognizant of Sanderson and the penalty kill need, but they’re just six minutes split there this year. Thought that was interesting.

What are his % of OZ starts during EV ? What are his EV stats with/without Jensen as his partner? Is the line of Stutzle, Batherson, Giroux the one has played the most minutes with because Tkachuk and Greig have also spent significant time with Stutzle? What are his goals against at EV?

 

[Yost]

Our defense without Chabot has ZERO offensive ability... another reason why it was stupid to let go Brannstrom just so TWO of Hamonic, Kleven and JBD would play every game of the season. Don't need hindsight to know this, I kept banging that drum in the offseason. That and Amadio over Joseph...

Sanderson is supposed to reach another level but it hasn't been happening so far

I know some people won't like that but, since 2022-23 :

Sanderson : 40 ESP in 176 GP -9, 16:57 ES TOI/GP, 3.01 xGF/60, 2.67 xGA/60, 52.94% xGF%

Brannstrom : 42 ESP in 166 GP +13, 14:12 ES TOI/GP, 2.91 xGF/60, 2.42 xGA/60, 54.61% xGF%

Chabot : 53 ESP in 139 GP -12, 20:19 ES TOI/GP, 3.08 xGF/60, 2.79 xGA/60, 52.45% xGF%

Seriously, Brannstrom has the 23th best xGF% since 2022-23 (among 186 D-men who played at least 1500 ES mins) and 7 of the guys ahead are Canes D-men, a team system that is magical for any player analytically speaking

Why the f*** did we let him go? Oh yeah 5'10

Someone else brought this up and I think it’s a really important point.

Last year, Sanderson “outplayed” Chabot to the tune of +0.4 goals in Ottawa’s favor (on-ice) every sixty minutes played at EV. That’s material.

This year? It’s reversed. And it’s +2.3 goals per-60. Which is absolutely absurd, even in just ~ 20 games!

And to your point: it’s all because of the offense. Sanderson minutes, team is at 1.8 goals scored per-60. Chabot minutes, 3.8 goals scored per-60. Nearly double, with similar defensive results behind them.

How much you apportion that to Sanderson is entirely another debate, it might very well be zero. But the issue is this team does not score when that Chabot pairing is off. Period..

 

[Yost]

What are his % of OZ starts during EV ? What are his EV stats with/without Jensen as his partner? Is the line of Stutzle, Batherson, Giroux the one has played the most minutes with because Tkachuk and Greig have also spent significant time with Stutzle? What are his goals against at EV?

Most of those are answered in the piece, but one that isn’t is Chabot with and without Jensen. Only about sixty of those minutes and Jensen has been great (+6 in real goals), but those minutes are split halfway between Kleven and Jake.

Not sure if you can glean anything from that yet for all of the other names, but increasing evidence Jensen really has been a big addition for this team. Hes been quality everywhere.

Amidst all of this, I think there’s a good discussion about why the forwards are struggling so mightily in those non-Chabot minutes. Sanderson isn’t Makar but the offence has no issue producing with his pairing last year, and his skill set beyond pure playmaking is extraordinary. So much so you kind of want to derate concerns about the defensive group in general and retate concerns about most of Ottawa’s forwards …

 

[Big Muddy]

I've been a big Chabot critic but can easily acknowledge his play has improved. He's fortunate that Sanderson is now taking the harder minutes. That's contributing to Chabot being able to tilt the ice

I think with Zub back, we can get in a groove and on a roll.

I would rather see JBD in over Harmonic simply because of the age / future thing

I think the thing that doesn’t get emphasized enough was the pairing aspect. A lot depends on finding the right partners to form a good pairing.

A lot of people were pretty excited when we got Chychrun. But, he was an offensive type defender and a LD. That’s an example of not finding the right partner even though the defender is a pretty decent player.

 

[Loach]

Most of those are answered in the piece, but one that isn’t is Chabot with and without Jensen. Only about sixty of those minutes and Jensen has been great (+6 in real goals), but those minutes are split halfway between Kleven and Jake.

Not sure if you can glean anything from that yet for all of the other names, but increasing evidence Jensen really has been a big addition for this team. Hes been quality everywhere.

Amidst all of this, I think there’s a good discussion about why the forwards are struggling so mightily in those non-Chabot minutes. Sanderson isn’t Makar but the offence has no issue producing with his pairing last year, and his skill set beyond pure playmaking is extraordinary. So much so you kind of want to derate concerns about the defensive group in general and retate concerns about most of Ottawa’s forwards …

Cool. Thanks man. Don't get suckered into talking about Brannstrom! Lol.

 

[Yost]

Good to know, thanks! Is Sanderson not playing significantly harder minutes? Genuinely asking, I know you referenced in the article Chabot takes on some of the toughest opponents but I’m not sure what the gap is between them in terms of competition they face.

Sanderson’s definitely playing tough minutes. Chabot gets good zone starts but very difficult opponents. This isn’t Marc-Andre Bergeron.

Sanderson gets most of that top opposition PLUS has spent half of it with Travis Hamonic.

And to the extent you’d change anything about the blue (I think most of this is a forward issue), it’d be firing Hamonic into the sun. But stop me if you’ve heard that one before ….

 

[RickyLafleur]

Brannstrom is playing limited minutes on a very good team. You seriously think he'd look anywhere near as good on this Sens team?

He did look good when he played on the sens, so probably yeah.

 

[StoicSensFan]

Sanderson’s definitely playing tough minutes. Chabot gets good zone starts but very difficult opponents. This isn’t Marc-Andre Bergeron.

Sanderson gets most of that top opposition PLUS has spent half of it with Travis Hamonic.

And to the extent you’d change anything about the blue (I think most of this is a forward issue), it’d be firing Hamonic into the sun. But stop me if you’ve heard that one before ….

I hope.

I have an idea of who we should call once Hamonic is gone...

 

[Xspyrit]

Brannstrom is playing limited minutes on a very good team. You seriously think he'd look anywhere near as good on this Sens team?

Yes I "seriously" would lol because he did. I have posted his ES production of the last 2 years and it was better than Jake Sanderson, and he did that in less ice time. You didn't understand the stats?

No one has ever said he should be a first pairing D-man but your argument doesn't even make sense because of this :

Brannstrom ES TOI/GP in 2022-23 : 13:51
Brannstrom ES TOI/GP in 2023-24 : 14:33
Brannstrom ES TOI/GP in 2024-25 : 14:06

He plays the same minutes in Vancouver as he did here, the only difference is less PK

And Vancouver is a "very good team" because they make smart decisions, like having Brannstrom on their 3rd pairing instead of 2 of Kleven/Hamonic/JBD

 

[Erik Alfredsson]

Yes I "seriously" would lol because he did. I have posted his ES production of the last 2 years and it was better than Jake Sanderson, and he did that in less ice time. You didn't understand the stats?

No one has ever said he should be a first pairing D-man but your argument doesn't even make sense because of this :

Brannstrom ES TOI/GP in 2022-23 : 13:51
Brannstrom ES TOI/GP in 2023-24 : 14:33
Brannstrom ES TOI/GP in 2024-25 : 14:06

He plays the same minutes in Vancouver as he did here, the only difference is less PK

And Vancouver is a "very good team" because they make smart decisions, like having Brannstrom on their 3rd pairing instead of 2 of Kleven/Hamonic/JBD

Yeah well he doesn't play here anymore, so why don't you move on?

If only Montreal signed him, then you'd really be happy.

 

[Xspyrit]

Yeah well he doesn't play here anymore, so why don't you move on?

If only Montreal signed him, then you'd really be happy.

Damn, really with that Montreal 10 y/o jab again? lol how freaking weak can someone be?

The problem I have with Brannstrom and why I can’t « move on » is the same problem I have had with this team for years :

We make GOD AWFUL pro scouting choices, which causes my team to suck and miss the playoffs every year.

Is it really that hard to understand?

 

[vandelay]

Damn, really with that Montreal 10 y/o jab again? lol how freaking weak can someone be?

The problem I have with Brannstrom and why I can’t « move on » is the same problem I have had with this team for years :

We make GOD AWFUL pro scouting choices, which causes my team to suck and miss the playoffs every year.

Is it really that hard to understand?

Do you think van picks up brannstrom if he's getting paid 2 mill?

 

[Xspyrit]

Do you think van picks up brannstrom if he's getting paid 2 mill?

No because like most teams, they didn't have enough cap space.

That said, that 2 M$ thing has been over since Ottawa let Brannstrom walk, it's not a thing anymore

I guess you asked because you're wondering how we could have kept him?

Well first, NEVER give a NMC to Hamonic (and don't pay a 3rd to get him in the first place damnit)

Also, don't give Brannstrom a 2.0 for just 1 year as he was still cost controlled, he didn't have the production to ask for even that kind of money. We could have offered him term for less AAV too.

That was when Dorion was still GM, Staios could have claimed him off waivers or offer him less and say come back if you don't get what you're looking for

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Brannstrom didn't have to sign his QO. He could have taken the team to arbitration if he was qualified. Based on the admissible criteria, there is a chance that he could have been rewarded with a number above his QO but below the walk-away threshold.

They were never going to sign him at 2M, but the suggestion that they should have qualified him at 2M isn't that simple. You're talking about holding cap in limbo for weeks until the hearing.