Player Discussion Thomas Chabot (D) Part 2

[Golden_Jet]

There's no exercise Micklebot. Seriously, not every post on HF is an opening to argue. Chabot has posted 50 once. 40 once. His health matters.

Ya and Brannstrom has never gotten to the 20 point level.
Smart play is to move on from him, he’s not what this team needs, especially in the playoffs, when the team gets there.

 

[Micklebot]

There's no exercise Micklebot. Seriously, not every post on HF is an opening to argue. Chabot has posted 50 once. 40 once. His health matters.

I'll take that as it only counts for chabot. Thanks.

But hey, 18pts career high Brannstrom would surely get 30 pts


Seriously though, I think it's fair to point out Chabot has health issues, but I also think it's important to frame it in a way that isn't misleading. Somebody did the work to show how many games you can expect to see Chabot for, it came to about 70 games a season on average, so if you're going to prorate his production, 82 games isn't realistic, but is only hit 50 pts once and 40 pts once a fair representation of what you can expect, I'd say no, that's just as misleading as pacing him out at 82 games.

Chabot's probably giving you 70 games, ~40 pts a year unless he can stay healthy,

 

[Micklebot]

FWIW, Martin saying Chabot is expected back for the weekend.

 

[JD1]

I'll take that as it only counts for Brannstrom. Thanks.

But hey, 18pts career high Brannstrom would surely get 30 pts

I don't really feel like arguing with you today. Busy day at work.

Context Matters though. It's your saying. It applies here

 

[Micklebot]

I don't really feel like arguing with you today. Busy day at work.

Context Matters though. It's your saying. It applies here

It sure does and I expanded on my post to detail why I think you were omitting a lot of it.

 

[JD1]

I'll take that as it only counts for chabot. Thanks.

But hey, 18pts career high Brannstrom would surely get 30 pts


Seriously though, I think it's fair to point out Chabot has health issues, but I also think it's important to frame it in a way that isn't misleading. Somebody did the work to show how many games you can expect to see Chabot for, it came to about 70 games a season on average, so if you're going to prorate his production, 82 games isn't realistic, but is only hit 50 pts once and 40 pts once a fair representation of what you can expect, I'd say no, that's just as misleading as pacing him out at 82 games.

Chabot's probably giving you 70 games, ~40 pts a year unless he can stay healthy,

Except in the last 3 years he has only given you 59, 68 and 51 (if he returns Saturday and plays out the season)

I responded to a post saying he's a 50 point player. He's done it once. 5 years ago. The Brannstrom bit .... I was clearly projecting based on him being on a PP. If you want to debate whether Brannstrom could score in the 30s, sure, let's debate that. Otherwise I'm going to leave you to chasing your own tail

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

Chabot needs to be way better defensively and more responsible if all he is going to give us is 40-50 points.

same with Stutzle, Brady, Drake.

 

[Micklebot]

Except in the last 3 years he has only given you 59, 68 and 51 (if he returns Saturday and plays out the season)

I responded to a post saying he's a 50 point player. He's done it once. 5 years ago. The Brannstrom bit .... I was clearly projecting based on him being on a PP. If you want to debate whether Brannstrom could score in the 30s, sure, let's debate that. Otherwise I'm going to leave you to chasing your own tail

So do you think going forward he's only going to play 51-68 games a season? Because that's essentially what you've now re-framed it as. I don't think that's realistic either tbh but hey, maybe it happens. He's had a rough go of late, broke his leg this year in a freak accident, came back to early and aggravated it. I don't know if that's indicative of future injuries to come, but I suppose we'll see.

For Brannstrom to score thirty though, well lets just say he'd need to earn the coaches confidence first, and as a guy that every year continues to get sheltered mins and being one of the guys that gets considered for the next healthy scratch he's got some work to do. Even when he has been on the PP hasn't produced, with only 11 PP pts in ~300 mins over his career, I just don't see it. You add his career pp production to this years pts and he still comes up short. The reality is that's just not his game, his offence tends to come from exiting the zone efficiently, not from making plays in the OZ once they are set up, and he's never getting first unit mins with Sanderson, and Chychrun ahead of him.

 

[Relapsing]

I'll take that as it only counts for chabot. Thanks.

But hey, 18pts career high Brannstrom would surely get 30 pts


Seriously though, I think it's fair to point out Chabot has health issues, but I also think it's important to frame it in a way that isn't misleading. Somebody did the work to show how many games you can expect to see Chabot for, it came to about 70 games a season on average, so if you're going to prorate his production, 82 games isn't realistic, but is only hit 50 pts once and 40 pts once a fair representation of what you can expect, I'd say no, that's just as misleading as pacing him out at 82 games.

Chabot's probably giving you 70 games, ~40 pts a year unless he can stay healthy,

Damn right.

69.7 games if memory serves!

 

[aragorn]

There’s just no logic behind this other than he’s small. He’s a legitimate decent bottom pairing guy and doesn’t play the most minutes on the d corps. So you can keep him and the defence can improve. Heck korpisalo just needs to save low danger shots and it will look like the defence has improved exponentially.

He's not just small, he's weak, doesn't have a long reach, gets dominated by bigger forwards, doesn't bring enough offence & gives the puck away as much as anyone else on this team. This was one of the worse defences in the league this yr & Brannstrom was part of that. Both York & Ryan think they need to move on from him & have said you can't go into the playoffs with a player like Brannstrom. I've posted articles that state Brannstrom is a player they should move on from, he needs to be replaced. But I wouldn't stop at him, they also need to buy out Hamonic & make a decision between Chabot & Chychrun to build this defence to be much better on the PK, defensively & much harder to play against especially in front of their own net. .

That absurd. He's not the reason our defense is what it is, the guy plays 16 mins a night, not 60.

He is part of the problem ... on the PK & in front of our net where he gets dominated by bigger forwards, something has to be done to improve this defence, it was part of the problem this yr along with goaltending.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Damn right.

69.7 games if memory serves!

I did the math around the same time you did but rounded up to 70 in my post... so I can confirm with all certainty that it was between 69.5-69.8 (I would remember if it was 69.9).

 

[Micklebot]

He is part of the problem ... on the PK & in front of our net where he gets dominated by bigger forwards, something has to be done to improve this defence, it was part of the problem this yr along with goaltending.

That's not what you said though, you claimed the team's defence can't improve with him on the team, which is crazy.

He has attributes to his game that are strengths, and weaknesses; I agree, the PK isn't a place we should be using him, at least not regularly, but changing the dynamic of the D allowing us to not need to play him on the PK is also an option. He's been pretty effective playing with Kleven the last few games, they seem to compliment each others games well.

That's not to say he can't be upgraded, everyone can, but you can absolutely improve the teams defensive play and keep him on the team.

 

[Icelevel]

FWIW, Martin saying Chabot is expected back for the weekend.

He said he’d be back today. That’s changed I’m guessing?

 

[aragorn]

That's not what you said though, you claimed the team's defence can't improve with him on the team, which is crazy.

He has attributes to his game that are strengths, and weaknesses; I agree, the PK isn't a place we should be using him, at least not regularly, but changing the dynamic of the D allowing us to not need to play him on the PK is also an option. He's been pretty effective playing with Kleven the last few games, they seem to compliment each others games well.

That's not to say he can't be upgraded, everyone can, but you can absolutely improve the teams defensive play and keep him on the team.

My guess is he is replaced by Kleven LD on that 3rd pairing & the team will improve. Kleven plays with JBD next season who is IMO already better than Brannstrom defensively & a right shot. I assume they will find a RD for the top 4. They can't go into the playoffs with him on defence, he gets dominated on defence all the time. I see that he makes some nice plays sometimes & can skate it out, but they have defencemen who can do that too.

 

[Micklebot]

He said he’d be back today. That’s changed I’m guessing?

Getting close, expects him back for the weekend,

 

[Alf Silfversson]

My guess is he is replaced by Kleven LD on that 3rd pairing & the team will improve. Kleven plays with JBD next season who is IMO already better than Brannstrom defensively & a right shot. I assume they will find a RD for the top 4. They can't go into the playoffs with him on defence, he gets dominated on defence all the time. I see that he makes some nice plays sometimes & can skate it out, but they have defencemen who can do that too.

You say that Brannstrom gets dominated on D all the time and have also said that he provides next to no offense. So how is he a +5 on the season?

The facts are that he has scored 14 ES points this year. Jakes Sanderson has scored 16 with significantly more icetime. Brannstrom gets more points per minute of ES ice time than Sanderson and Chychrun. I know deployment matters but he's right there in production with everyone except Zub and Chabot (who are ahead by a good chunk) and Hamonic and Kleven (significantly lower for these two although obviously Kleven has a much smaller sample size).

Now goals against. Again this is at ES. He has played the 4th most minutes (total) at ES this year for the Sens. He has been on the ice for the 6th most goals against this year. He isn't leaking goals against this year compared to the rest of the team.

You may not like HOW Brannstrom gets beat when he does, and that's fine, but he doesn't get beat more often other D on this team. A whole season's worth of data shows that he actually is less of a liability than at least a few others. If he was constantly getting beat it would show up in the numbers. Like it does for Chychrun and Hamonic.

Brannstrom is what he is. A player with limitations and strengths. He's a solid 5th or 6th D who does well at ES, and can fill in on either the PK or PP. He shouldn't have been as much of a mainstay on the PK as he has but with Chychrun, Hamonic, and to a degree Chabot, being so poor defensively he's been forced into that role.

 

[aragorn]

You say that Brannstrom gets dominated on D all the time and have also said that he provides next to no offense. So how is he a +5 on the season?

The facts are that he has scored 14 ES points this year. Jakes Sanderson has scored 16 with significantly more icetime. Brannstrom gets more points per minute of ES ice time than Sanderson and Chychrun. I know deployment matters but he's right there in production with everyone except Zub and Chabot (who are ahead by a good chunk) and Hamonic and Kleven (significantly lower for these two although obviously Kleven has a much smaller sample size).

Now goals against. Again this is at ES. He has played the 4th most minutes (total) at ES this year for the Sens. He has been on the ice for the 6th most goals against this year. He isn't leaking goals against this year compared to the rest of the team.

You may not like HOW Brannstrom gets beat when he does, and that's fine, but he doesn't get beat more often other D on this team. A whole season's worth of data shows that he actually is less of a liability than at least a few others. If he was constantly getting beat it would show up in the numbers. Like it does for Chychrun and Hamonic.

Brannstrom is what he is. A player with limitations and strengths. He's a solid 5th or 6th D who does well at ES, and can fill in on either the PK or PP. He shouldn't have been as much of a mainstay on the PK as he has but with Chychrun, Hamonic, and to a degree Chabot, being so poor defensively he's been forced into that role.

Coming in hot have said the same thing all yr long, both York & Ryan have said you can't go into the playoffs with Brannstrom on defence. Who are you going to replace on this defence for next season or do you bring back the same players? JBD has 14 pts & Brannstrom has 18 pts, not much difference & IMO JBD is better defensively. This defence has been criticized all yr long IMO there will be changes & I have Brannstrom, Hamonic & most likely Chychrun being moved out. What would you do?

 

[Alf Silfversson]

Coming in hot have said the same thing all yr long, both York & Ryan have said you can't go into the playoffs with Brannstrom on defence. Who are you going to replace on this defence for next season or do you bring back the same players? JBD has 14 pts & Brannstrom has 18 pts, not much difference & IMO JBD is better defensively. This defence has been criticized all yr long IMO there will be changes & I have Brannstrom, Hamonic & most likely Chychrun being moved out. What would you do?

JBD gets very similar deployment to Brannstrom and scores less and allows more. Both have been improving as the season went on but Brannstrom has been the better player.

Personally I think that Brannstrom, JBD and Kleven could very easily make up our 5-7 D.

It would cost us less than $4M for the year and we'd have some depth.

Chychrun needs to go. He's poor defensively, has looked very disinterested at times and he's not as good as Chabot or Sanderson.

Hamonic will likely be our #8 D for better or worse. He's untradeable and not worth buying out.

My preference would be to bring in Matt Roy.

Sanderson - Zub
Chabot - Roy
Brann/Kleven - JBD/Brann

Those last three will rotate in and out as play and injuries dictate.

 

[Relapsing]

I did the math around the same time you did but rounded up to 70 in my post... so I can confirm with all certainty that it was between 69.5-69.8 (I would remember if it was 69.9).

I would have put that in bold if it was 69.9!!

 

[Micklebot]

JBD gets very similar deployment to Brannstrom and scores less and allows more. Both have been improving as the season went on but Brannstrom has been the better player.

Idk if that's actually true, he's certainly getting less OZ starts, and QOC appears to be a big difference too. Now, playing on the right side, JBD does typically play with more offensive minded partners while Brannstrom has played both sides, so more of a mixed bag in terms of linemates I suspect.

 

[Big Muddy]

to play devil’s advocate a bit, Chabot doesn’t have a NTC (till July 1st) and is under contract for 4 more years. Chychrun likely will only be dealt to a team he wants to sign with long term (even though he has no control) so that may reduce the number of suitors looking to extend him (a la Debrincat)

You could potentially have more suitors for Chabot in this scenario but the $8M tag is gonna be the biggest problem…

The other thing is Chychrun’s contract expires at the end of next season and will need a new one after that. Hard to say what he’ll get on his next contract and I’ll stay away from trying to make a prediction, but I think the difference in contracts is going to smaller after next season.

Staois has some tough challenges & decisions to make this summer.

 

[aragorn]

JBD gets very similar deployment to Brannstrom and scores less and allows more. Both have been improving as the season went on but Brannstrom has been the better player.

Personally I think that Brannstrom, JBD and Kleven could very easily make up our 5-7 D.

It would cost us less than $4M for the year and we'd have some depth.

Chychrun needs to go. He's poor defensively, has looked very disinterested at times and he's not as good as Chabot or Sanderson.

Hamonic will likely be our #8 D for better or worse. He's untradeable and not worth buying out.

My preference would be to bring in Matt Roy.

Sanderson - Zub
Chabot - Roy
Brann/Kleven - JBD/Brann

Those last three will rotate in and out as play and injuries dictate.

It will be interesting to see if they are able to sign a RD this off season. How much is Roy going to ask for? Without Roy in your lineup it's around $24.5 mil, Roy likely takes that number over $30 mil. Do you come back with the same goalies? They cost $6.735 mil & will another goalie cost more? Do you come back with the same forwards? They are at around $40 mil without Norris. How much more will they cost? Improving this team won't be easy given the cap restraints & IMO they will need every penny.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Idk if that's actually true, he's certainly getting less OZ starts, and QOC appears to be a big difference too. Now, playing on the right side, JBD does typically play with more offensive minded partners while Brannstrom has played both sides, so more of a mixed bag in terms of linemates I suspect.

View attachment 845982

So Branny has the easiest QoC, and second highest OZ starts, thanks for that.

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

The problem isn't that Brannstrom specifically gets beat. It was that all of Chabot, Hamonic, JBD and Brannstrom get beat in physical battles.

Brannstrom is just the shortest so some people just put most of the blame on him.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

It will be interesting to see if they are able to sign a RD this off season. How much is Roy going to ask for? Without Roy in your lineup it's around $24.5 mil, Roy likely takes that number over $30 mil. Do you come back with the same goalies? They cost $6.735 mil & will another goalie cost more? Do you come back with the same forwards? They are at around $40 mil without Norris. How much more will they cost? Improving this team won't be easy given the cap restraints & IMO they will need every penny.

I think we need to not get hung up on Roy. He is the belle of the ball. He’s not choosing Ottawa.