The way too early "Takeaway from Carolina's success?" thread

[Smif]

There was a thread a while back claiming that a tank and rebuild was REQUIRED for a team to be successful. I kept saying that there was teams who never bottomed out and were still successful. But it was like arguing to a hive mind that's obsessed with tanking and drafting.

The takeaway from Carolina's success, on HF I hope, is that the tanking obsession should be mitigated a decent amount, and not every team that refuses to tank is doomed to ridicule and failure.

They had some pretty high picks for a 6 year run between 2013 & 2018 though:

5 OV
7 OV
5 OV
13 OV
12 OV
2 OV

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Eating crow is very healthy. I suggest some try it.

 

[banks]

They had some pretty high picks for a 6 year run between 2013 & 2018 though:

5 OV
7 OV
5 OV
13 OV
12 OV
2 OV

2013 Lindholm
2014 Fleury
2015 Hanifin
2016 Bean
2017 Necas
2018 Svechnikov

Only Svech is on the team from those drafts. Necas was, at great expense, turned into a player originally taken in round 2. Even if you want to break it down to a value of assets thing, the Canes turned Hanafin and Lindholm into Hamilton and Fox, who they then turned into almost nothing.

Those drafts were hardly the reason the Hurricanes just won a championship. 2013 was 13 years ago. In a 32 team league, with a span of well over a decade, finding one pick in the top 4. That's not tanking and rebuilding. That's just what nearly any team would experience by virtue of being in the league and taking part in the entry draft.

 

[Chan790]

This is music to my ears, it's going to be a super sweet summer on the forum.

Same. Given a choice between properly estimated and underestimated...I'd rather be the latter.

The Canes, throughout their success, have been a team that is better than the sum of their parts. We'll still be that next year.

 

[JaegerDice]

When you have a choice between a data-driven, Ivy League-educated 'nerd' or a 'good hockey man', for the love of god, go with the former.

 

[CanesUltimate11]

2013 Lindholm
2014 Fleury
2015 Hanifin
2016 Bean
2017 Necas
2018 Svechnikov

Only Svech is on the team from those drafts. Necas was, at great expense, turned into a player originally taken in round 2. Even if you want to break it down to a value of assets thing, the Canes turned Hanafin and Lindholm into Hamilton and Fox, who they then turned into almost nothing.

Those drafts were hardly the reason the Hurricanes just won a championship. 2013 was 13 years ago. In a 32 team league, with a span of well over a decade, finding one pick in the top 4. That's not tanking and rebuilding. That's just what nearly any team would experience by virtue of being in the league and taking part in the entry draft.

Svech was also from winning the lottery to move up to 2. I think they were 10th maybe before winning?

 

[Five Alarm Fire]

Don’t blow the team up after a perceived plateau. Keep trying and building. Carolina never traded any of their core players, just stayed patient. They also never went all-in at a trade deadline, I remember past years where the east was an insane arms race and they didn’t give in.

 

[Adam da bomb]

That you should try to get members of the jets org in your team. This year Ehlers, last 2 years Maurice. Also, that you can only win once you leave the Jets.

 

[Roshi]

My takeaway of the Canes success was being patient and trusting your system. Playing the long game. I hope other organisations will see this and follow. The ability to trust through the road that what you are doing is the right way and will eventually get you there.

The parity in NHL is crazy and every team that makes it to the playoffs is good enough to get on a heater for a week or two and win any team in the league. Or you might get a cold scretch. Puck luck plays a huge role. Most teams get lost in that translation and start fixing things that dont really need to be fixed, and taking backsteps as a result.

Canes trusted their personnel through painful losses and made the most important move of not making a move (like firing Brind'Amour for the ECF bubble or making structural changes on the style they had established on ice).

On the other hand, Vegas is the exact opposite. Making every move all the time and still being succesful year in year out.

 

[Over the volcano]

Work hard consistently for a long time seems to be the blueprint.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Don’t blow the team up after a perceived plateau. Keep trying and building. Carolina never traded any of their core players, just stayed patient. They also never went all-in at a trade deadline, I remember past years where the east was an insane arms race and they didn’t give in.

The biggest "name" they acquired at the trade deadline over the last 8 years was Guenztel, who actually did have a lot of success here. After that was Stankoven, who was really the end result of a much bigger trade they made a month earlier.

But the minor ones were the ones that made the difference. For instance, at the 22-23 deadline, they acquired Gostibhere from Arizona. He played the rest of that season out, then signed with Detroit that off-season. However, even while with Detroit, he sung the praises of working under Rod. So when that Detroit contract ran out, he signed a new deal with Carolina.

 

[chaser17]

It helps having the entire core signed to under market value deals! Aho and Jarvis were really the only 2 guys that didn't have a good playoff but those are their regular season horses. The goaltending is still a ticking time bomb, Bussi played well but he's so different style wise. Just not sure it's sustainable.

 

[Ole Gil]

It helps having the entire core signed to under market value deals! Aho and Jarvis were really the only 2 guys that didn't have a good playoff but those are their regular season horses. The goaltending is still a ticking time bomb, Bussi played well but he's so different style wise. Just not sure it's sustainable.

Bussi did go 30-6 in the regular season. And then won all 3 starts in the Stanley Cup finals. So there's some hope going forward. It's just a different beast when you're giving up 18 shots a game.

 

[Nikishin al Gaib]

The only reason they’re where they are is because Florida wasn’t in the east. Their road so far has been pillow soft. Montreal is too inexperienced and it shows. Vegas is going to maul them.

You’re on the same path as Florida in 23. Except Florida actually dummied way better teams. You beat Philly, Ottawa, and Montreal lmao. Pump the brakes. You can say whatever you want now that Floird isn’t there to maul you as per usual. You have 0 cups and Florida has 2 in that time frame. Injuries add up when you have deep runs, ECF failures. When Vegas dummies you in 4 I’ll be here don’t worry.

You believe you’re the favorite over Vegas? Lmao cute. You have Andersen in net lmao. Even if god blessed you and you somehow won, you’ve never won 2 in a row, so we’ll always be ahead. Barkov on one knee is still better than your entire team so I’m not sure that’s the best gotcha.

If you think you’re the favorite over Vegas, it’s going to be a rude awakening for you lol. Your team wilters when another team has talent and physicality. Vegas is going to mop you up.

That’s exactly what’s going to happen. Vegas is going to overwhelm them. They’re more talented, they’re meaner, and they play a hard system.

 

[VivaLasVegas]

My takeaway of the Canes success was being patient and trusting your system. Playing the long game. I hope other organisations will see this and follow. The ability to trust through the road that what you are doing is the right way and will eventually get you there.

With rare exceptions, with Cup champions the stars support the team instead of the team supporting the stars. The Canes are an excellent example of this. Hockey is a team sport and holistic teams usually win. It doesn't matter if the winning goal is shot by a fourth-liner so long as it goes in.

Too many teams are built to support their stars, but if their stars can be shut down or go cold, they are screwed since the ordinary players are not used to having to step up in their place.

The ancillary lesson to this is that it is better to be deep and spread the talent over that depth than to load up on a few stars.

Stars sell tickets, teams lift the Cup.

 

[FinPanda]

Canes were dominant, but recently it has looked like if you don't have a Finnish player in your team, you aren't winning.

 

[Miami Wice]

Hire STEM Phd geek with interest in hockey and data analytics who has shown he can provide good insights. Let them get some experience to see inner workings of hockey ops so they can improve how they use their models.

Let the nerd build team with deep depth, stockpile picks, and make upgrades to elite talent where possible without sacrificing your depth.

Trust the process even if crazy people say you are failure for not being able to get past ECF in past years.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

One thing teams could start to copy: sending your best faceoff guy to take the draw on a PP. If he wins, he goes to the front of the net, if he loses, he goes off on a change. That's how the Canes used Jordan Staal, and it sparked an anemic PP midway through the year that was huge in their dominance down the stretch and into the playoffs.

 

[MinJaBen]

One thing teams could start to copy: sending your best faceoff guy to take the draw on a PP. If he wins, he goes to the front of the net, if he loses, he goes off on a change. That's how the Canes used Jordan Staal, and it sparked an anemic PP midway through the year that was huge in their dominance down the stretch and into the playoffs.

That might not work as well if you already had your dominant faceoff guy on your PP1 or if he is a short king and not a 6'4" sasquatch.

 

[PensandCaps]

That if you build a solid foundation with no bad contracts, you'll have a chance. Dallas is similar, stacked with talent for decade now but still fell short, but if you keep putting yourself in a spot to contend, you might just get lucky and come out on top.

both teams are excellent at drafting, knowing when to sell off players for assets and who to pick up for cheap in FA.

 

[JKG33]

After thinking on this, the last 3 cup winners (Carolina and Florida x2) all have something in common. They didnt have a consensus MVP. McDavid won it from the losing side in 2024, while 2025 (Bennett) and 2026 (Staal) are being criticized as "weak" winners. No one player stood out. Their leading scorers weren't above and beyond. They weren't carried by their goalie.

This shows the depth required to win a cup. The trend is that winning teams dont need to be carried by one or two players.

Carolina essentially had three 2nd line quality lines that outproduced what you'd think of them as individuals. On D, they had a defensive stud in Slavin and after that a bunch of guys who punched above their weight.

Florida had what is imo a higher quality lineup at forward, and was a little more top heavy on D, but overall they still had nobody truly set themselves a part for MVP (Barkov is still obviously far and away their best player).

We also still havent seen a player with a cap hit greater than $10m win the cup.

 

[NotOpie]

After reading the entire thread, I'll make a couple of observations/comments:

Tom Dundon reflects the team building ethos when he said shortly after buying the team, and I'm paraphrasing, "...our job as management is to find the best players and your job as players is to make sure you're one of them". What was different about this season was that the "best players" were the ones that best fit the system.

The difference in this year's Canes team from recent versions is pretty stark. They got bigger on defense (although all of their defensemen aren't big) and they simply scored more (2nd in the league after Colorado).

Related to both depth and scoring is the fact that the Hurricanes had 7 players who scored 20 or more goals (and 13 with 10 or more goals), yet none that scored 40 or more. They had 8 players with more than 40 points (and a total of 12 with more than 30 points), yet none with 90 or more. The "4th line" put up 30 goals and 57 points. Yes, the entire team forechecks like mad, but the offense came at teams in consistent waves.

Lastly, it will be interesting to see if there is a change in drafting strategy. The Canes likely felt they were exploiting an inefficiency in other teams' draft strategies by taking a boatload of Russians. Many teams shy away because of the KHL contract situation. Also, in the past, teams controlled Russian players forever. That last bit has apparently changed in the latest CBA update.

The Hurricanes are in an interesting situation as they have almost $12 million in cap space and only a couple UFAs (who may or may not be signed). Alexander Nikishin is really the only guy we have to sign (he's an RFA who is not eligible for an offer sheet). Down on the farm they have 3 or 4 guys who are likely ready for the NHL (Nadeau, Unger-Sorum, Legault, and Nystrom), but it is hard to see who on the roster they would replace. Suffice it to say, it will be an interesting off season for Carolina.

 

[Breakers]

Everyone is looking for how they can get a #1 defenseman for Pennie’s on the dollar like Carolina

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Everyone is looking for how they can get a #1 defenseman for Pennie’s on the dollar like Carolina

Well, depending on which one you’re talking about, it’s either draft him in a late round and then be a small enough market that he doesn’t receive media attention until he makes a national tournament OR take advantage of Chris Drury.

 

[Stickpucker]

Carolina just beat a better version of the team that Florida lost to in the Finals a few years back. Does that mean Florida’s Cup wins don’t have the same taste since they didn’t face Vegas?

I think it 100% does.

Florida beat teams with ahlers in net getting carried by two genreational, future HOF players.

Put Barkov out against them and win. How hard is that?