The Vet vs. Prospect theory

[Indrid Cold]

AlJo or Gust?

Mazur or Motte?

What are you REALLY getting, or not getting, by playing a washed up below average Vet, as opposed to the inexperienced, yet upside having Prospect?

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[The Flying Octopus]

AJ Hinch - youth movement and look what happened the last 60 days w the tigers once they called up every prospect worthy.

Yzerman should take it out his playbook , grab a coffee and take some notes.

I’ll start with Petry. Bye

 

[Winger98]

AJ Hinch - youth movement and look what happened the last 60 days w the tigers once they called up every prospect worthy.

Yzerman should take it out his playbook , grab a coffee and take some notes.

I’ll start with Petry. Bye

Out of everyone on the blueline, Petry is the one you boot first?

 

[Winger98]

AlJo or Gust?

Mazur or Motte?

What are you REALLY getting, or not getting, by playing a washed up below average Vet, as opposed to the inexperienced, yet upside having Prospect?

Depends on roles and what you want them to work on, imo. Mazur playing 1st line, 1st PP in grand rapids is probably better for him than 4th line, defensive minutes with Veleno and Watson (or whoever). I'd wager that a number of guys sent to GR after camp are going to be expected back in Detroit before the end of the year.

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

AlJo or Gust?

Mazur or Motte?

What are you REALLY getting, or not getting, by playing a washed up below average Vet, as opposed to the inexperienced, yet upside having Prospect?

If you ask NHL GMs, it will usually be some variety of the vet has the experience of being in games, so in roles that require you to basically play even with the other team (fourth lines are a success if they eat overtime and don’t get caved in), having a guy who’s been in games with NHL talent has a better chance at being steady Eddie and the kid (with waiver ability) can go down to the AHL, play minutes commensurate with what you expect of them out of the spotlight and if a vet gets hurt, you’ve got the kid in reserve.

It’s designed on organizational depth more than only caring about the NHL roster.

Plus, for fans, they’ll say “Motte will screw up too, Mazur might screw up but he’s a kid and that’s the learning process.” Whereas GMs (Holland and Yzerman specifically) have been big on pass/fail. That the NHL isn’t a league to develop people in, it’s a league where you should be attempting to win every night.

Now, Johansson should be on the roster because he’s out of waiver eligibility. But Mazur, unless he shows out like Raymond in his promotion year, should start in the A

 

[Henkka]

AlJo or Gust?

Mazur or Motte?

What are you REALLY getting, or not getting, by playing a washed up below average Vet, as opposed to the inexperienced, yet upside having Prospect?

You have to try both, and then pick the better one.

Kid has to push the vet out from the roster.

Yzerman, Holland, Babcock, Lalonde... they all have said this, and that's the name of the game.

Depends on roles and what you want them to work on, imo. Mazur playing 1st line, 1st PP in grand rapids is probably better for him than 4th line, defensive minutes with Veleno and Watson (or whoever). I'd wager that a number of guys sent to GR after camp are going to be expected back in Detroit before the end of the year.

Yeah, I see it this way. They will have those split seasons and get fair chances for ~20 games.

Like for 1 spot it could be Mazur+Kasper+Danielson+Söderblom = 20+20+20+20 = 80 games.

For defence, they already have those kids up, so it's just a decision who will be benched or not.

 

[Henkka]

What I really think is:

1. Mazur will replace Christian Fischer, partially at this season, for next season 100%.
2. Veleno will be traded in Defenceman-package, either Danielson or Kasper will take his spot.
3. Motte proably gone after season, either Danielson or Kasper will take his spot.
4. Söderblom probably out of waiver options at next season, so takes the 13th "snively spot".

If Kane leaves, that will open a spot. I hope he will stay, if he is still elite vet.

At defence:
Either Johansson or Wallinder is traded for a legit Top4 D. Johansson will get his chance after any injury for 2024-25 season or if Gustafsson is a disaster.

After 1 year or at trade deadline:
Chiarot - Seider
Edvinsson - Legit Top4 RD
Määttä - Gustafsson (at 2024-25)
Johansson/Wallinder - Holl/Gustafsson (at 2025-26)

Määttä, Petry walk out as UFA at next summer.

 

[HisNoodliness]

AlJo or Gust?

Mazur or Motte?

What are you REALLY getting, or not getting, by playing a washed up below average Vet, as opposed to the inexperienced, yet upside having Prospect?

The good reasons to choose a vet over the kid:

The vet is the better player.

If the prospect genuinely isn't ready to play, you're not serving anyone by bringing them up.

If you know that your team sucks and there's going to be a lot of ice time where the players out there get embarrassed, you'd rather do that to Motte than Mazur.

Letting the kids succeed in GR is better for their development than fail in the NHL.

How many of those reasons apply in these situations? I think Gustafsson is better than AlJo, but Petry, Chiarot and Holl? Give me AlJo. I think most of our young forward prospects are better than most of our bottom 6.

AlJo is as ready as he'll ever be. Mazur, Kasper and Danielson are also probably ready.

I think our team is good enough that we shouldn't have to hang anyone out to dry too badly.

AlJo has nothing to learn in GR, and has probably already spent too much time there-baking in AHL habits. Mazur, Kasper and Danielson can all probably benefit from more AHL time.

 

[Indrid Cold]

If you ask NHL GMs, it will usually be some variety of the vet has the experience of being in games, so in roles that require you to basically play even with the other team (fourth lines are a success if they eat overtime and don’t get caved in), having a guy who’s been in games with NHL talent has a better chance at being steady Eddie and the kid (with waiver ability) can go down to the AHL, play minutes commensurate with what you expect of them out of the spotlight and if a vet gets hurt, you’ve got the kid in reserve.

It’s designed on organizational depth more than only caring about the NHL roster.

Plus, for fans, they’ll say “Motte will screw up too, Mazur might screw up but he’s a kid and that’s the learning process.” Whereas GMs (Holland and Yzerman specifically) have been big on pass/fail. That the NHL isn’t a league to develop people in, it’s a league where you should be attempting to win every night.

Now, Johansson should be on the roster because he’s out of waiver eligibility. But Mazur, unless he shows out like Raymond in his promotion year, should start in the A

Very good point! Although I would argue that Mazur would be 'better' than Motte/Fischer by the end of the year, and a possible playoff berth. Like the Tigers comparison made above.

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

AJ Hinch - youth movement and look what happened the last 60 days w the tigers once they called up every prospect worthy.

Yzerman should take it out his playbook , grab a coffee and take some notes.

I’ll start with Petry. Bye

Using the Tigers as an example is not a fair comparison. The Tigers tried everything under the sun. They played Javy Baez for over half of this year, for god's sake. Shit, they sold Flaherty at the TDL and had legitimate discussions about trading away Skubal. The Tigers young bucks coming up and hitting their stride like this is by far the exception and not the rule. They have had one of the best pitching staffs in MLB by stringing together a bunch of innings from mid pitchers. Like, the huge worry for me is that Scott Harris and Chris I get high on their own farts with this run and say they don't need to still improve.

The Tigers young players busting out is an amazing run, no doubt... but it is not going to be sustainable. This is a group of guys who don't know any better having a run that defies logic. Defying logic can only last for so long.

 

[RedHawkDown]

You should always play the better player. That's it. It doesn't need to be more complicated than that.

Kasper is better than everybody else in the bottom 6. He would be the best option for 3C today.

 

[Henkka]

You should always play the better player. That's it. It doesn't need to be more complicated than that.

Kasper is better than everybody else in the bottom 6. He would be the best option for 3C today.

Interesting thing is, that there really isn't any regressing vets at the bottom6.

Rasmussen 25y - entering on his prime
Copp 30y - in prime
Veleno 24y - entering on his prime
Fischer 27y - in prime
Motte 29y - in prime
Berggren 24y - still developing

But people are acting like there would be 37-year old Clearys, Nielsens and Abdelkaders with 10-year contacts. Still wounds open from the bad days.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Interesting thing is, that there really isn't any regressing vets at the bottom6.

Rasmussen 25y - entering on his prime
Copp 30y - in prime
Veleno 24y - entering on his prime
Fischer 27y - in prime
Motte 29y - in prime
Berggren 24y - still developing

But people are acting like there would be 37-year old Clearys, Nielsens and Abdelkaders with 10-year contacts. Still wounds open from the bad days.

It's got nothing to do with regression. Kasper is significantly better than Veleno, Fichser, Motte, and Berggren. He should have a spot above all of those guys.

 

[Henkka]

It's got nothing to do with regression. Kasper is significantly better than Veleno, Fichser, Motte, and Berggren. He should have a spot above all of those guys.

And realistic replacement would be for Veleno, who still has trade value, and Yzerman will want to cash and send him out at same time.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

. That the NHL isn’t a league to develop people in, it’s a league where you should be attempting to win every night.

I think that's the heart of it right there.

Without getting into specific players, I think people here often underestimate just how big the gap can be between a mediocre NHL veteran and a prospect, especially in terms of defensive play.

Unless you're in a position of not caring at all about winning, coaches are going to err on the side of the known quantity most of the time.

 

[lilidk]

And realistic replacement would be for Veleno, who still has trade value, and Yzerman will want to cash and send him out at same time.

Fischer, Berggren and Motte all have trading value, they have cheap contracts. I hope Kasper is not replacement for those guys but for Compher or similar.

 

[Henkka]

Fischer, Berggren and Motte all have trading value, they have cheap contracts. I hope Kasper is not replacement for those guys but for Compher or similar.

For Compher who produced more than Floridan Panthers 2nd line Center at last season.

A guy who produced more at Detroit, which was said to be impossible without Mikko Rantanen -effect at Colorado.

Still people can't appreciate this guy enough.

 

[Coach Reggie Dunlop]

I’d be okay with vets playing over young players…if they were good. Copp sucks, compared to his contract he’s really bad but realistically he’s like a mediocre 3rd line player to an above average 4th liner. Holl is terrible, Gustafson showed last night that he sucks too. Chariot has always made stupid decisions as a red wing but he’s more tolerable than most. The issue is yzerman just has a log jam of mediocre to bad vets and I think it’s a boat anchor weighing down this team. Personally? I think it’s time to finally cut the dead weight, even if we have to give away assets to get guys like holl off the team, they gotta go.

 

[raymond23]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1839282850668990913

 

[lilidk]

For Compher who produced more than Floridan Panthers 2nd line Center at last season.

A guy who produced more at Detroit, which was said to be impossible without Mikko Rantanen -effect at Colorado.

Still people can't appreciate this guy enough.

It's not about today, but in the future, I hope Kasper will be as good as Compher, second line center, he has everything to be better

 

[Henkka]

It's not about today, but in the future, I hope Kasper will be as good as Compher, second line center, he has everything to be better

Yeah... hope so. And Compher will be one of the mentors for him. They could even spend some time together, when Compher moves to wing at some point of next 4 seasons.

 

[Henkka]

The issue is Yzerman just has a log jam of mediocre to bad vets and I think it’s a boat anchor weighing down this team. Personally? I think it’s time to finally cut the dead weight, even if we have to give away assets to get guys like Holl off the team, they gotta go.

They don't have to go anywhere. They can still be on the bench, if the kids are better and will play. Contracts will end. We move on.

 

[Frk It]

I would rather have Mazur or Kasper or Danielson be injury call-ups for a top 9 guys that is injured as opposed to play 10-12 minutes on the 4th line.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Fans view the game in terms of players actively winning a game. Coaches any managers, however, view the game in terms of managing downside risk. They want the player who is less likely to make mistakes that cost the team games. More often than not this brings them back to the vet. To the coaches the system wins the game, to the fans the players win the game. I suspect that the truth is somewhere in the middle. As someone else mentioned, coaches and management value organizational depth much more than fans do. To consistently win, you need more than 23 guys who can play.

As for the OP's original question: AlJo is not an offensive defensemen. Gust, who was brought here for offense, is not his competition. I would like Aljo to play, however, so that we can shit or get off of the pot with him.

I want Mazur to play, but as a 3rd liner, not a 4th liner. Again, I don't think Motte is necessary the direct competitor in that regard.

 

[lilidk]

Yeah... hope so. And Compher will be one of the mentors for him. They could even spend some time together, when Compher moves to wing at some point of next 4 seasons.

And I don't expect Cat Compher, Copp , Tarasenko,Kane 4 years from now. They all going to get replaced with Danielson, Kasper, Mazur, MBN and others.