I mean... the Orioles are currently 4.5 games back of the Jays. By Pythag, they should be 5.5 back. By BaseRuns, they should be 7.5 back. The Jays run differential is more than 50 runs better. The Jays are pretty clearly the better team so far this season.
And if you really want to focus on the "should" part... the Jays have spent aggressively in both money and prospects the last 2+ years to make the team competitive, while the Orioles have been by far the worst team in baseball the last 5 years, made no moves to significantly improve the team following last year's 110 loss season, and traded away two of their most valuable pieces at the deadline. The Jays very obviously should be the better team.