The stock market thread.

[DenisSamson3]

I would just be gambling on a dead cat bounce. I don’t think any Canadian oil producers are making money @ 30 dollar oil. I think 45-50 is the break even for a lot of them . Probably higher.

I’m in Nova Scotia - gas prices here are 79 cents a litre. At some gas stations if you use cash or debit it’s 75 cents .
I expect gas prices in the 60s here on Friday .

Dont forget that in certain provinces 30 to 40% of the gas price is taxes.

 

[Thucydides]

I'm liking BMO. I'm thinking about doing a Dollar Cost Average of them.

have my eye on BMO, too.

Some of the REIT’s I’m following are down almost 50% from their highs a month ago.

crombie reit 10 bucks - was 16.
True north real estate trust - was 8.18 now 4.90

vanguard index fund not moving that much . Was 62 now 46. It can’t seem to break that 45 threshold.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

I'm liking BMO. I'm thinking about doing a Dollar Cost Average of them.

Every time I hear someone talk about DCA, I want to put up a graph illustrating how it works both ways. Example: on DCA off the S&P 500, off the price when trading halted you are now flat on everything from March 27, 2014 to today. That's almost 6 years of going nowhere, where you would have been better off in just in a money market fund.

Also see BAC, which I mentioned earlier. Keep in mind, among others I'm looking at TXRH which has taken a cliff dive off its ATH and is trading where it was in August, 2014. I think it's a great company, it's not going bankrupt, it's just not going to have anyone showing up for several weeks because of what's going on. And yet, there's no way in hell I'd buy it at $26 even trying to DCA into it.

Market is getting wrecked today . Anyone jump in on anything or are you still on the sidelines ?

I tried putting in an order short the market, figuring we'd get a bounce up and my order would get filled and then I'd ride a decline from there. Nope, kept falling and now we're stopped for 15 minutes.

Good timing, too. Can get a couple minutes head start on lunch.

 

[Thucydides]

Yeah I saw the market was halted again. This is insanity !

Was anyone watching in the 2008 crash? Was it anything like this ? With the almost daily halts ?

 

[PromisedLand]

folks need to watch this if you haven't already. Informative and with facts no speculation

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

Dow -10%

 

[PromisedLand]

Who the F is buying these stocks?

 

[DenisSamson3]

Who the F is buying these stocks?

People on reddit, also some wealthy people who probably have inside knowledge as to what is going on behind the scenes.

 

[DenisSamson3]

Telus internet fell 50% in one day.

 

[Bruins4Lifer]

Telus internet fell 50% in one day.

That was a stock split; no decrease in market cap

 

[DenisSamson3]

That was a stock split; no decrease in market cap

Do you know why that was done?

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Yeah I saw the market was halted again. This is insanity !

Was anyone watching in the 2008 crash? Was it anything like this ? With the almost daily halts ?

Circuit breakers then were -10%, -20%, -30%. We never moved like that in any day, even with bans on short selling. But yeah, it was crazy back then because when the markets moved less than 2% either way we called it "nothing to talk about." The difference then was that the banking system really was f***ed from having gorged itself nearly to death on debt thinking real estate would just go up forever, and people really did have that this could be the end of the world feeling.

Instead of solving that, ... well, see my posts above detailing this.

Who the F is buying these stocks?

Suckers. Actually, it's not quite like that, but this is a great time to illustrate that any time you see talking heads crow about "all the cash on the sidelines, waiting to get into the market" you should realize they're spouting pure bullshit.

In every trade of a stock (ignoring stock issuance, which still technically applies), the buyer gives up cash for the asset and the seller gives up the asset for cash. There is no new cash created; the amount of cash sitting out of the market remains the same. The only thing in play is the desire to hold stock instead of cash; that's what helps drive prices.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

All the gains on the Dow from January 20, 2017 to now are gone. We're about 12 points from that on the S&P.

 

[Advanced stats]

Sitting on my hands

Holding now, tempted to get on some air travel stocks or oil, both of which are way way down.

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

Oil sitting just above 20$ mark.

Oil falls 24% in 3rd worst day on record, sinks to more than 18-year low

 

[Thucydides]

20.40 a barrel! Crazy!
Edit - 20.11

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

20.40 a barrel! Crazy!
Edit - 20.11

Western Canadian Select sits at 11.55

 

[Thucydides]

Western Canadian Select sits at 11.55

Are you an oil guy ?

 

[Bruins4Lifer]

Do you know why that was done?

Not sure, but it was announced a month ago

 

[Bruins4Lifer]

Western Canadian Select sits at 11.55

Unreal. It's actually under 10 now, and bottomed at $8.xx earlier today.

I bought in some last Thursday, thinking it was close to bottom. I guess not.

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

Unreal. It's actually under 10 now, and bottomed at $8.xx earlier today.

I bought in some last Thursday, thinking it was close to bottom. I guess not.

Makes sense. The ticker i was looking at only updates every 12 hrs. Who knows where the floor is on that type of Crude.

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

Are you an oil guy ?

Sorta...

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Who the F is buying these stocks?

I've used a considerable amount of cash to buy dividend-paying stocks over the past week. Everything is on sale! I haven't invested in anything new, but I'm continuing to increase my positions in companies that I already own. Specifically I'm looking at companies with a track record of maintaining or increasing dividends annually, sustainable dividend payouts (relative to net income and cash flow), and wide economic moats. I haven't invested in anything with direct exposure to oil.

When I look at a stock like, say, CIBC - I ask, has the long-term value of the business truly declined 35% over the past month? It's value has clearly dropped (as we're almost certainly entering a recession - and loan loss provisions will surely increase), but a drop anywhere near that magnitude strikes me as irrational, bordering on paranoid. (Full disclosure - I own this stock).

Will the dividend be cut (for CIBC, or comparable businesses)? I'm not sure. Most of these business survived the 2008 recession without cutting their dividends. I also screen stocks for the sustainability of dividend payouts - many of these are quite conservative and have a lot of room before they'd be compelled to do so.

The stock market will rebound. It might take a year or two, but I'm not planning on retiring for at least 10 years (possibly quite a bit longer than that). I'll continue to get paid 5+% dividend yield while I wait.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Unreal. It's actually under 10 now, and bottomed at $8.xx earlier today.

I bought in some last Thursday, thinking it was close to bottom. I guess not.

I really, really wish I had saved numerous comments from years ago where people breathlessly told me that Canadian oil would never fall below like $80, and that Canada's natural resources - especially the oil sands - were so vast and so valuable that the Canadian loonie would trade at more like $1.30US = $1CN and that it would never go back to $1.30CN = $1US.

I mocked them then because it was funny. It's "pee myself uncontrollably" funny now.

 

[Bruins4Lifer]

I really, really wish I had saved numerous comments from years ago where people breathlessly told me that Canadian oil would never fall below like $80, and that Canada's natural resources - especially the oil sands - were so vast and so valuable that the Canadian loonie would trade at more like $1.30US = $1CN and that it would never go back to $1.30CN = $1US.

I mocked them then because it was funny. It's "pee myself uncontrollably" funny now.

What's your call now? Is WCS staying under $10 forever? What will it be in 2 years?