The stock market thread Part II (The GME Phenomenom)

[Fixed to Ruin]

HOLD THE LINE

@John Price

 

[Jiminy Cricket]

The suits always win. Institutions are trading both sides of this, and retail peasants will be left holding the bag, like always.

Imagine thinking you're sticking it to the man when they're profiting immensely off of this while regular folks will lose their savings.

GOSH BLESS BILLIONAIRES AND GOSH BLESS WALL STREET.

IN BILLIONAIRES WE TRUST.

Thank you for speaking out about this, James. I'm a hedge fund manager who has made a killing off of fleecing these degenerate rubes. I even like to post on Reddit pretending like I'm one of the guys and pump them into losing trades. Melvin Capital may have gotten burned, but they are just one hedge fund that got caught with their pants down by taking on too much risk. The rest of us are making a killing.

 

[varsaku]

These last few days have a real eye opener to how much manipulation goes on in the stock market. I always knew that it goes on but never knew the extent these hedge funds and brokers are willing to go.

 

[Jiminy Cricket]

I just donated to my local hedge fund, and I encourage you all to contact your representatives and tell them to bail these guys out. They need our support to knock down these retail degenerates and TAKE BACK OUR STOCK MARKET!

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

 

[dma0034]

Looks like AMC is on the hype train. Sell by Friday (2/5) imo

 

[Jiminy Cricket]

I'm a man of the Corporations. People are gross, unsophisticated vermin. Corporations are the best society has to offer, delivering products like McDoubles and 90 Day Fiancé. I will side with the corporations 9 times out of 9.

 

[Jiminy Cricket]

"My home was pillaged and burned in the 2008 financial crisis, so now I am spending my rent money on a meme stock to get revenge." — Filthy, dirty peasants

I AM NOW SHORTING $GME IN SOLIDARITY WITH MELVIN CAPITAL.

 

[napoleon in rags]

A small group of people have figured out how to use social media to leverage the mob on financial markets. Not unlike what politicians have been doing for a good while.

The idiots will certainly believe they're robbing the 1%. But it's not what will actually happen.

 

[John Price]

f*** hedge funds

power to the people

 

[dma0034]

Either it's exceptionally about to change but what I see in this GME saga is that some people convinced people to 'hold at all costs" and then likely saw how it played out and bounced leaving others to pay the bill. If you were around for the 17 dollar GME shares and sold at 300-500 then you are okay with everything. If you bought at 200-300 and watch that stock fall to 80 you'll see a lot of saving accounts cleared out. I bought a bunch of AMC shares on Friday and cashed out immediately this morning for a modest profit (and I like AMC more).

 

[WolfOfBroadStreet14]

Anyone have suggestions on a new brokerage app?

 

[Jiminy Cricket]

1. This jumps off one of the lower points the Dow was at in the 1978-1982 range, when it was already about 65% off the 1965 high and had dropped below the 1974 low. Of course it's going to look really good from there. Spoiler: we're not at the same point in time in 2020. Jump off March, 2000 and see how those gains look compared to having sat in Treasuries or even a money market account.

2. Even with today's massive rally, everyone who's "systematically put money to work continuously" (read: dollar-cost averaging) in the market is still flat for the last 5 1/2 years. Not "flat after accounting for inflation," I mean "your total return over that period is 0.00%." As of yesterday's close, you were flat for nearly 7 years. If (when) we hit 2100, you'll be flat for 8 years. 2000? 8 1/2 years. 1250 (about where I expect we'll land)? 23 years of buy-and-hold gains will be wiped out. 25 points below that? It'll wipe out everything back to 1995. Inflation-adjusted? It's even worse.

Short-term timing? I agree, 99.99% of people shouldn't do that. Long-term "set it and forget it" a la Ron Pompeil, though? That's just as dumb, IMO. Gains are paper only until you sell, and way too many people won't do that because they fear losing more gains. Buy-and-hold is great as long as stocks go up forever. When they don't, buy-and-hold quickly turns into losses because your cost basis has increased over time. Never be afraid to take gains, don't just put blind faith in "everything will always go back up" because like irrational behavior on the way up, the market can stay irrational longer on the way down than you want to believe is possible.

 

[John Price]

Anyone have suggestions on a new brokerage app?

Just use fidelity

 

[Jiminy Cricket]

 

[TootooTrain]

I think it's better invest in blockchain technologies, they will be profitable in the next few years.

I've been doing a bit of that myself.

Unrelated, but one stock that became publicly available a few days/a week ago is Holicity (HOL). They're teaming up with Astra. A competitor to many other companies (Space X, Virgin, etc). They're manufacturing and testing rockets to get satellites into earth's orbit. For whatever commercial need there is. It opened up fairly high, around 15-16$, but if there are any valleys, I'd say pick it up. Then wait it out for a few years.

 

[dma0034]

Antero Resources looks like a decent buy for today.

 

[SJSharksfan39]

Does anyone have a good paper trading platform that is not Think or Swim? I already have a Fidelity Account and I don't plan to leave it, but I want to learn how to trade option strategies (Like Verticals) and I have been rejected by TD Ameritrade for an account. They wouldn't say why, but I am looking for another platform, and where I can get some good education on how to utilize different option strategies. Does anyone have any advice?

 

[Club]

ARKK, Renewables, lithium, BTC, and REITs are my holds.

 

[John Price]

GameStop shares up 250% in two days. Here we go again?

 

[Cody Webster]

ADA

 

[Thucydides]

Anyone investing in shrooms or psychedelics ?

 

[John Price]

GME taking off again!!!

 

[HaNotsri]

Anyone investing in shrooms or psychedelics ?

Just on a meme level. I'd say it's the kind of stock that is equal to gambling, if reddit/memes start to spiral out of control the stocks will start racing as well.

Anyone bidding on Rblx today? I've gone in on market value but suspect I won't get that order to go through...

 

[Hockey Outsider]

I don't like making posts to gloat, but I'll make an exception, given how much crap I was given (mostly by one person) for this post from a year ago (March 29th, 2020) - The stock market thread.

If you listened to my advice (and bought an ETF that tracks the S&P), you'd be up about 51% (a little more, with dividends). Of course, if you invested in any number of high-growth stocks (Tesla, GME, etc), you'd be up far more than that - but even a basic ETF tracking the US market would give you excellent returns in one year.

In fact, I probably didn't need to wait a full year to write this post. The S&P took only 5 months to recovery from its nadir. But seven months later, it's only continued to increase.

In my post, I predicted that the "this time is different crowd" would show up (which they did). Every time there's a major market correction, some people are convinced that this bear market is different than all the others, and the you better stockpile cash because it will take years to recover. People said that in 1987, and 2001, and 2008. You'd think they'd get tired of having the evidence contradict their theories.

Someone posted an article from John Hussman - a well-educated fund manager. He's been saying the stock market will collapse for more than a decade. He has three equity-focused funds (HSGFX, HSIEX and HSAFX). Over the past year, they're up about 15%, 2%, and 3% respectively. Completely trounced by any basic ETF tracking the S&P (such as VOO - for the record I don't own that one).

Of those funds, HSGFX has been around the longest (since mid 2000). It's down 31% since then. The S&P is up roughly 260% during that same period. That's the trouble with being a perma-bear. Sometimes you get it right. Over limited timeframes when the market crashed (2001, 2008, 2020), Hussman's funds have done well. But since the stock market rises over time, continually betting against it means that, even when you're right over short periods, you're losing so much growth in the years that you're wrong, you end up far behind overall.

My advice to anyone reading this to take advantage of sharp stock market corrections (>20%). Don't sell anything and, if possible, use it as an opportunity to buy into the market at a discount. Betting against the power of the US economy has always been a bad bet, and will almost certainly continue to be a poor choice over the rest of our lifetimes.