The state of the Habs Rebuild - The Next step
- Thread starter Milhouse40
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Suzuki/CC/Dach/Newhook either managed to be so good that the rebuild was going to be shortened or there to be transition players.
Currently, they look like transition players, since HuGo haven't acquire and/or kept talent to go along with them to speed the rest up:
- a A1 goalie
- a top 4 RHD (or two depending how you look at it)
- a dependable 2 line center
They are in the pipeline thought (if they pan out), so in 5 years, the core could very well be Slaf/Lane/Vanya/Hage/Rein/Beck/Fowler...
Likely we can't wait for an alignment whereby we mostly drafted all the key pieces we need. So through UFAs and trade maybe we speed it up. For example, we trade Mailloux plus for Andersson after next July 1 and extend him, then we have a top 3D and maybe extend Savard for 2 years until Reinbacher is ready. In the meantime we can make do.
The critical missing pieces are a top pair RHD a 2C and a starting goalie. Winger wise we should be fine top 6 and then lots of young guys with a few vets to fill the bottom 6.
Grate n Colorful Oz
The Hutson Hawk
Most elite players are still elite between 30 and 33 years old. This whole window thing is an exageration. Suzuki and Caufield will more than likely still be very valuable at 30 years old.
This vision is also based on an assumption that Caufield and Suzuki are the ultimate central core being built on, when it is also as likely that they aren't. It is rather more likely that the players who we will have drafted since 2022 will be more important to the team. Hutson, Slaf, Demidov, Hage, Reinbacher, Fowler and whoever else we draft next will form a major core of their own, light years more impactful than the tiny core of Caufield, Suzuki and Guhle, who won't even be that old at that point and will be a much needed veteran presence.
Mrb1p
PRICERSTOPDAPUCK
How is a top 15, probably nearing top 10, center a transitional player?
We haven't had a forward this valuable since fricking Lafleur what are we doing with this f***ing rebuild.
Fall of 27-28 season mid 6th year of KH as GM...
Minus whatever UFA signings or trades that take place btw now and then (any of which would presumably be made to improve/shore up the roster)
- Price, Matheson, Savard, Armia, Dvorak, Laine, Gally, Anderson, Monty & their 50M off the books
That's 57% of the cap currently allocated to that -non playoff caliber- veteran core which will be fully re-allocated by 27-28 season, plus the likely considerable cap increase...
2027-28 Assets to work with (inevitable trades, injuries notwithstanding):
- 28: Suzuki
- 27: Barron
- 26: CC, Dach, Newhook, Xhekaj, Dobes?
- 25: Guhle, Heineman, Strubble, Tuch?
- 24: Kapanen Mailloux, Roy, Engstrom, Kony?
- 23: Slaf, Hutson, Beck, Mesar?, FloX?
- 22: Reinbacher, Fowler
- 21: Demidov, Hage, Koivu?, Protz?, Thorpe?, Sawyer?
- 20: 2025 picks
Most of our top talent will just be starting, or in the early years, of their performance prime, and the "old guys" will still be 2-4 years away from 30!
(Imo, the ones without a ? are locks to be NHL contributors, only question is how good... The ? are tbc if they can transition to NHL regulars or not, along with all the other prospects not listed)
With this kind of roster depth, age and cap situation, Years 5, 6, 7, 8+ of the Gorton/KH rebuild should very much be yielding a playoff roster, with a quality and deep group of 21-28 year old players filling up the top 9 & top 4...
It's quite likely a cup contending roster by as early as 26-27 provided they have even decent trade/UFA success over the next 2 summers and are able to add 1-2 established top 6/ top 4 vets in the 28-32 age range (&/or maybe keep Laine & Matheson)...
Future is bright
Acquiring Dach/Newhook (and Barron I guess) was clearly a move to try to bring the core age closer to Suzuki, but looks like that boat has sailed in the wrong direction...
Or, Dach and/or Newhook will be far better in their 25-30 years than they were in their 20-25 years...
That's just as, if not more likely than "what you see, at 23, is what you get" with them...
teamfirst
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Or, Dach and or Newhook are exactly what they gonna be at 25-30 years old.
That is why
Future is an unknown
There is no chance a team can draft all of key pieces such as 2C, first pairing D, #1G followed by a 3C and 1 scoring W with 1 2nd pair Dman and also wait for them to develop.
Right now on the roster, they have Suzuki, Caulfield, Slaf, and Guhle to hang your hat on. Hutson improving to be their main offensive D. But, this is 1 C, 2 W, 2 D.
You need to go and acquire a couple of those pieces via free agency (but at their stage now, hard to convince guys to take that leap of faith), or you make a trade for those pieces.
Waiting for Fowler to be your #1 goalie, he's doing his SO year at BC right now. He will need time in the AHL to carry the load and some time as a backup in the NHL.
Right... but the point is that it is highly less probable that they have reached their performance peak. Even more so considering that both have had stretches of superior play to these past 18 games, and by all indications, both have strong work ethic/no behavior red flags.Or, Dach and or Newhook are exactly what they gonna be at 25-30 years old.
That is why
Future is an unknown
Future is unknown, precedence is the best indicator available & by that standard, odds are better (baring career ending/altering injury) that they will top out at something higher than this difficult 18 game stretch
teamfirst
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Right... but the point is that it is highly less probable that they have reached their performance peak. Even more so considering that both have had stretches of superior play to these past 18 games, and by all indications, both have strong work ethic/no behavior red flags.
Future is unknown, precedence is the best indicator available & by that standard, odds are better (baring career ending/altering injury) that they will top out at something higher than this difficult 18 game stretch
Very difficult to be worst in Dach case anyway
LaP
Registered User
It's crazy how our fans panic every time a kid have 2-3 bad games and then panic the other way when he has a good game. CRAZY. It's the 2nd youngest team in the league anybody expecting consistency and instant gratification is in for a rude awakening. It's going to be a process with ups and downs.
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It would be a lot more paltable if the 'kids' had a history of producing and playing to a high-level. Then their inconsistency would be easily accepted as growing pains. But Dach has never broken out, he's always "on the verge". Many such cases.
Lafleurs Guy
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People ask for a rebuild but don't understand what it means or how it works.
And we've been really, really unlucky with injury problems.
The were acquired as prospects. In the case of both Dach and Newhook they had good momentum disrupted by injury. It sucks but it is what it is. Both players had paced for 50+ point years before injuries got in the way.
OnTheRun
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It wouldn't be a rebuild if we were working with safety nets and harnesses. It's a wait and see situation by nature, anxiety doesn't help, unless one is actively looking for a reason to be miserable.
Lafleurs Guy
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Barron hasn't even played 100 games... nothing is stalled there. Injuries have sucked, no question about it. Newhook I don't see as a core player. He's a guy who provides depth scoring.
Dach's a different story. He looked awesome and set up to be our number 2 (maybe even number one) but injuries have totally disrupted things. This is a make or break in terms of relying on him for that role and we're using him on the wing. It sucks but 2nd line center could well be an open question by the time this year's over. Still early, still lots of time for Dach to find his game but...
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I'm not even sure what a rebuild even is at this point. No matter what happens, someone will assuredly say it's par for the course of a rebuild.
I think I understand what you mean by 'safety nets and harnesses', but then I think about it, and I don't understand it at all.
They're young players, sure, but criticism of their performance and (lack of) developing of their game is -- in my humble opinion -- par for the course in sports talk no matter the 'phase' a sport organization's lifecycle. What does a rebuild have to do with it? We were upset at Kotkaniemi's poor development and Galchenyuk's poor development and Kostitsyn's before him.
Do expectations change for individual young players within a 'rebuild' phase and any other phase...? We expect them to (1) grow and (2) fulfil their potential no matter the quality of the roster or the intentions of the organization. Dach's growth is off-track, it shouldn't take those "actively looking for a reason to be miserable" to say so. Newhook seems to be what he is, no growth, and he's having a terrible season. I don't understand why we have to accept that a rebuild gives carte blanche to dismiss everything and expect the organization to sit idly while individual players stink it up. A rebuild gives every excuse to shake things and keep only the best... because they're not beholden to keeping a "winning team" together!
If players are floundering, no matter their age, they could be jettisoned and churned over. Thankfully Hughes intimated as much in his recent remarks. My point is we shouldn't shrug and say "they're young, they have potential, be patient" about individual players -- the roster overall, sure, but individual players need to grow up and show something and if they don't, they're not worth defending.
Lafleurs Guy
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There will always be those fans who need instant gratification. Look no further than the Slaf thread where we had guys screaming that he wasn't keeping pace with other number ones almost from the get go. Dumb. But some folks are just impatient with no long term vision.
This year's sucked so far. No doubt about it. Good news is that we've improved our play over the past five or so games. That's a good sign.
Still hate that we're not using Dach as a number two. I get that they want to get him going but at some point we need to figure out if he's our guy at 2nd or not. We're not going to find that out if he's not used there. Maybe they'll wait for Laine to come back...
teamfirst
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teamfirst
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So true, it seems that it is very difficult to understand for some around here
empty or heavily biased criticism is useless regardless of rebuild status... There's a big difference between critique and mindless emotional ranting.
That's apparently hard for some to understand no matter how many times their hot takes prove baseless or refuted over time... As the Slaf thread last season "should" have taught some.
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I think some commentators refuse to accept people have different tastes and interests. Seeing a young(ish) player not make much headway in his career isn't very interesting to me any more. I had enough of it with Kostitsyn, Galchenyuk, Drouin... even Latendresse to an extent. I don't think fans owe young players who've not done anything notable in their career. (obviously they shouldn't be blasted, smeared, hated, etc. but I'm referring to genuine and mundane sports commentary and debate here)
It's the organization that has to make informed and sometimes tough decisions about floundering young players. While it's only natural that fans have a superficial perspective and tend to prefer players who have shown something at some point as opposed to nothing much at any point.
As this miserable season putters on, I don't think it's irrational for fans to start doubting Kirby Dach's realistic upside -- the team is struggling and he's not pulling his own weight. Of course his return from injury is a factor that can't be ignored but that's the part that is up for debate and can lead to good discussions... which is what we're here for, isn't it? What's wrong with Dach, and if something is wrong how does it affect the rebuild? There is a good discussion baked-in there!
Some heavily imply that there are no rational grounds to criticise eg. Kirby Dach's development because (1) he's not old, (2) he was a high-draft pick/has potential for more, and (3) the team is rebuilding. I think all three excuses are up for debate and not sufficient to shield him or any player from commentary. The same applies to commentary and criticism of the rebuild as a whole.
Lafleurs Guy
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Lafleurs Guy
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