The state of the Habs Rebuild - The Next step

[austin316]

Still baffled we wasted a 5th overall pick on Reinbacher. He looks more like a 5th round pick, not a 5th overall pick.

We still need:
- a number one goalie
- a number one/one A centre
- a number one right shot D
- one more top 6 forward
- more physicality and toughness to both our defense and forward core.

Long way to go still.

 

[SlafySZN]

Sharp looking top 6, but prepare to break the bank for it

Haha yes, that’s almost impossible having all of those guys. There’s a defense to pay too.

 

[ReHabs]

I don't nt think there's anything hostile about pointing out poor takes. What's truly inexplicable is sticking to an approach to assessing prospects that is quite clearly unsound, year over year. Not very interesting, grant it.

Of course my argument is unsound if one can't understand it.

I didn't assess Reinbacher (prospect) but the Habs depth chart. Pretty clear.

It's this type of specious reasoning that is "inexplicable".

Conflating assumptions with "logical and rational conclusions" is what's foolish.

The Habs should and will continue to "plan for the future " regardless of what happens to any one prospect or player... What's with the strawman?

Building prospect and pick depth, implementing an excellent development program, building a culture of excellence, treating players well (including departing ones).... is exactly what KH & co have been doing since day one.

There isn't any one prospect that will compel them to stop, or start, building depth. Every single player is one bad hit away from career altering injury, that's as true for established vets as it is for prospects.

The entire premise of this argument is unsound.

It's only unsound if you can't (or intentionally refuse to) understand the difference between a 5th OA picked prospect and a generic prospect.

Since you need further explanation: Teams don't tank and rebuild to draft 17th OA and try to peg the prospect as "building blocks". The argument that Reinbacher should be downgraded from "building block" to "prospect" is fine, in fact it's got nothing to do with Reinbacher at all. The thread is titled: The State of the Habs Rebuild, not The State of Reinbacher.

Reinbacher has all the potential in the world to be the next "D-2" or whatever it is Kent Hughes expects from him, in fact you could say Reinbacher is has the potential to be the best d-man of all time or whatever it is you believe... but given his injury and loss of important development time, it would be unwise for the Habs to count on him as a franchise cornerstone and not hedge its bets against his future. Better prospects than him have failed to reach their ceiling on account of injuries and lost development years. The Habs should therefore not give away high-potential RD prospects and likely look to acquire additional ones. It's a simple and honest conclusion -- I would keep Mailloux, Barron, and even Konyushov. We suddenly have a big question-mark in terms of RD depth, now and going forward.

Like I said, the hostility is inexplicable.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Like I said, the hostility is inexplicable.

It's not inexplicable. He spent the last two decades bitchin every habs GM on a daily basis, squaring off against their fanboys, and now he finally found one that he fell madly in love with. That's what blind love does. You can't critic nor doubt anything Hughes does or else he'll mock you. It's a childish behavior. The mocking, I mean. He's turned into the very thing he disliked. A blinded fanboy.

I really like Hughes, he's the best GM we've had in a long while. Still he's not perfect, no one is, and he'll make mistakes. I doubt Millertime will notice them even when they become more glaring.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

Sharp looking top 6, but prepare to break the bank for it

I doubt it. Suzuki and Caufield's contracts will look relatively cheap in 2-3 years. And HuGo are looking for team oriented players who presumably won't be looking to break the bank. They will likely be looking for reasonable contracts. Not home town discounts but not top of the market.

 

[Miller Time]

Of course my argument is unsound if one can't understand it.

It's understood, it's just not very good.

I didn't assess Reinbacher (prospect) but the Habs depth chart. Pretty clear.

A poor assessment relative to an NHL hockey team in 2024.

It's only unsound if you can't (or intentionally refuse to) understand the difference between a 5th OA picked prospect and a generic prospect.

That's a useless reference point outside of fan banter. For the team, the draft spot is irrelevant beyond ELC contract negotiation.

What matters is their performance & potential, as assessed by the team.

Hutson, drafted later than Mailloux and not as high a pick, appears to have surpassed him on the org depth chart, has he not?

Fans over emphasize draft spot all the time in assessing prospects. Some (poor) hockey ops departments certainly also allow their player evaluations to be skewed as such, falling prey to the sunk cost fallacy, but poor assessments are not the exclusive territory of fan message boards... Millbury and Bergevin did run teams after all lol

Since you need further explanation: Teams don't tank and rebuild to draft 17th OA and try to peg the prospect as "building blocks". The argument that Reinbacher should be downgraded from "building block" to "prospect" is fine, in fact it's got nothing to do with Reinbacher at all. The thread is titled: The State of the Habs Rebuild, not The State of Reinbacher.

Teams don't "tank & rebuild" anything like fans imagine. You assume these concepts have some sort of objective definition. It's this type of flawed premise that undermines your argument, making it quite unsound.

Reinbacher's behaviour during his rehab (as assessed by the team) and his performance progression in the months & years (barring a complete regression) after his return is what will affect wether or not the team views him as a "building block" (another highly subjective term... I'll assume you imply a top pairing NHL regular).

To state definitively that he has regressed at this point is foolish. The argument, which mirrors your arguments last fall about another prospect, could easily end up exposed as such within a calendar year depending on how well he returns from injury.

Reinbacher has all the potential in the world to be the next "D-2" or whatever it is Kent Hughes expects from him, in fact you could say Reinbacher is has the potential to be the best d-man of all time or whatever it is you believe... but given his injury and loss of important development time, it would be unwise for the Habs to count on him as a franchise cornerstone and not hedge its bets against his future.

It would be unwise for any NHL team to hedge anything on a player not yet to play an NHL season. Again here, you reach subjective conclusions that are irrational yet build your argument as is they are objective fact.

Better prospects than him have failed to reach their ceiling on account of injuries and lost development years.

And better prospects than him have failed to reach their ceiling without injuries and lost development time being the catalyst.

You're jumping to conclusions about the impact of his injury. The argument you offer from that conclusion is as thin as the ligament he's getting repaired

The Habs should therefore not give away high-potential RD prospects and likely look to acquire additional ones. It's a simple and honest conclusion -- I would keep Mailloux, Barron, and even Konyushov. We suddenly have a big question-mark in terms of RD depth, now and going forward.

Imo Habs should continue to manage their assets with the underlying goal of building a contender and sustaining that contention window as long as they can.

Has anyone argued that they should "give away potential RD prospects?". Perhaps I missed that post

Absent that context, your post has an "old man yelling at the clouds" vibe to it... Hence why I describe it as "unsound".

The organization RD depth chart, with or without RB, is arguably the weakest (bottom of barrel in vet and U25 NHLer, arguably top tier prospect-wise). Bird in hand is worth considerably more than prospects, imo, and I suspect most GMs operate that way.

You only really need 1 minute munching top pair RD... Hard asset to get in place, and until it is I would assume that the team views all assets at their disposal as "available" if it means landing that piece.

Our question mark at RD is no bigger today than it was two weeks ago. The road from top prospect to elite top pair player is not short for most... Including much "surer" picks. It was always going to be 3-5 years before we knew if we'd hit a top pair asset, that timeframe still holds true imo. 3 years seems far less likely (I would agree that it's unlikely, albeit not impossible that by next season he's playing 20+min for us), but 4? 5? This injury and recovery time doesn't preclude him staying on that track. No available information today supports a definitive statement otherwise.

The risk of RB or reaching his ceiling is perhaps a bit greater, but not nearly as much affected by this set back as you assume it to be. For many athletes, early career injuries actually are catalyst to achieving their future performance heights. The mental side of recovery is far less predictable, but can and often does result in training/rehab/mental resilience habits that sustain future growth.

Like I said, the hostility is inexplicable.

Like I said, have a take, don't suck.

Not sure why you take that so personally...

It's not "you" that sucks, it's your argument. I apologize if that old Jim rome saying, which I offer up tongue-in-cheek doesn't land as humorous with you. My daughter regularly assures me that I'm not as funny as I think I am, and she's probably right!

 

[ReHabs]

That's a useless reference point outside of fan banter. For the team, the draft spot is irrelevant beyond ELC contract negotiation.

Awful take.

To state definitively that he has regressed at this point is foolish.

Never said this and in fact said the opposite many times. You can't read (or refuse to), not my problem.

 

[Miller Time]

Awful take.

Ah yes, the quoting out of context approach lol
Some things never change eh Rehab

Never said this and in fact said the opposite many times. You can't read (or refuse to), not my problem.

 

[Miller Time]

Reinbacher is cooked until further notice.

Funny... I guess "cooked" doesn't mean regression?

 

[nhlfan9191]

It's not inexplicable. He spent the last two decades bitchin every habs GM on a daily basis, squaring off against their fanboys, and now he finally found one that he fell madly in love with. That's what blind love does. You can't critic nor doubt anything Hughes does or else he'll mock you. It's a childish behavior. The mocking, I mean. He's turned into the very thing he disliked. A blinded fanboy.

I really like Hughes, he's the best GM we've had in a long while. Still he's not perfect, no one is, and he'll make mistakes. I doubt Millertime will notice them even when they become more glaring.

Romanticizing managers and coaches is generally a terrible idea. I remember these boards pre 2016 about Bergevin and how many people loved him then flipped up on him. I notice some Habs fans treat some of their people in management position like they’re almost players and it’s a bad habit because anyone wearing a suit is disposable at any time. Marty St. Louis gets a lot of that weird fixation as well and I don’t get it. I’ve seen a few fans call him a literal coaching prodigy.

 

[Rapala]

2 years running with a complete developmental write off for a key player doesn't help.

 

[ReHabs]

Funny... I guess "cooked" doesn't mean regression?

No, not if you can read and see the statements developed and further clarified but otherwise yes of course he's regressed -- he needs to rehab a catastrophic knee injury and will miss nearly a whole season of hockey.

That's the problem with some of you. You want to 'win' arguments without trying to understand them or where the commentator is coming from, sometimes you do it purposefully and sometimes you do it because you're literally incapable of higher-order thinking.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Romanticizing managers and coaches is generally a terrible idea. I remember these boards pre 2016 about Bergevin and how many people loved him then flipped up on him. I notice some Habs fans treat some of their people in management position like they’re almost players and it’s a bad habit because anyone wearing a suit is disposable at any time. Marty St. Louis gets a lot of that weird fixation as well and I don’t get it. I’ve seen a few fans call him a literal coaching prodigy.

I see him more as a young inexperienced coach with a lot of potential. He has to fufill that potential and then he might become a prodigy.

I sincerily haven't seen anyone call him a prodigy, but considering his capacity for players to buy into his approach, he already has that part acquired.

I would disagree that he's a progidy, for now, as much as I disagree, for now, with the madmen who expect more out of a very mediocre lineup and put so much of the onus on the coach. Considering what he has on his hands, he's been doing fine overall. I presume to see what HuGo are planning with him, and because of this, I think the critics are wasting their breath asking him to be replaced. He's not going anywhere, for now, unless he wants to leave.

 

[Monsieur Miz]

Looking at the Atlantic division, we might be better than Buffalo, that's it. Going to be a long terrible season.

 

[Rapala]

Romanticizing managers and coaches is generally a terrible idea. I remember these boards pre 2016 about Bergevin and how many people loved him then flipped up on him. I notice some Habs fans treat some of their people in management position like they’re almost players and it’s a bad habit because anyone wearing a suit is disposable at any time. Marty St. Louis gets a lot of that weird fixation as well and I don’t get it. I’ve seen a few fans call him a literal coaching prodigy.

The media is responsible for much of that.
Whatever spin they put on things it tends to get absorbed fairly quickly by a good majority of the fan base.
It's actually one of the reasons I like this board because we get a wide variety of takes.
I always prefer an opinion voiced here before the crowd chirps in parroting the media on just about everything.
I like when we see the media parroting something that originated here first.

 

[Miller Time]

No, not if you can read and see the statements developed and further clarified but otherwise yes of course he's regressed -- he needs to rehab a catastrophic knee injury and will miss nearly a whole season of hockey.

No, that statement is false.

He is not playing for the next few months, that's all that we can say definitively.

Claiming he's regressed is categorically false.

Next fall he could still make the team out of camp and could still end up our 1RD on opening night. Would that be a "regression"? Only if you assumed he was going to be the 1RD this season.... Which I don't believe you did.

No one knows what level he will be performing at next season... He could have complications and be out longer. He could implode and not even make the AHL team. He could be 1RD on opening night.

This year, he looked to have an outside chance at starting in the NHL. Regression implies he will be below that when he returns. Stating your certainty of that is an opinion... Fair. Acting like it's a given (ie "of course he's regressed") is foolish and makes for a poor take.

That's the problem with some of you. You want to 'win' arguments without trying to understand them or where the commentator is coming from, sometimes you do it purposefully and sometimes you do it because you're literally incapable of higher-order thinking.

Nope. Problem here isn't understanding, it's a poor argument and weak attempts at spinning it to avoid owning it.

Defaulting to petty insults only highlights it further and is unnecessary.

Bad takes are one thing, pettiness and personal attacks are another. Enjoy your day.

 

[ReHabs]

No, that statement is false.

He is not playing for the next few months, that's all that we can say definitively.

Claiming he's regressed is categorically false.

Next fall he could still make the team out of camp and could still end up our 1RD on opening night. Would that be a "regression"? Only if you assumed he was going to be the 1RD this season.... Which I don't believe you did.

No one knows what level he will be performing at next season... He could have complications and be out longer. He could implode and not even make the AHL team. He could be 1RD on opening night.

This year, he looked to have an outside chance at starting in the NHL. Regression implies he will be below that when he returns. Stating your certainty of that is an opinion... Fair. Acting like it's a given (ie "of course he's regressed") is foolish and makes for a poor take.



Nope. Problem here isn't understanding, it's a poor argument and weak attempts at spinning it to avoid owning it.

Defaulting to petty insults only highlights it further and is unnecessary.

Bad takes are one thing, pettiness and personal attacks are another. Enjoy your day.

So I take it, you can't read and understand the actual spirit of the statements made? Fair enough. It takes a brave person. etc etc

 

[Miller Time]

So I take it, you can't read and understand the actual spirit of the statements made? Fair enough. It takes a brave person. etc etc

Crow tastes good I guess lol

 

[electron58]

19 years old.

Yep, he’s done. Guess it’s time to close the thread…

Is that really what ReHabs is saying? Because what I am understanding, is that he's implying that David Reinbacher has an extremely uphill battle just to get back to where he was before he can start to develop to being the player we're hoping he can be. I'm really disappointed in his injury bad luck too. I feel that he has a massive amount of rehab ahead of him. I'm 100% behind him and hope he can do it. The fact that DR is so young will be his biggest advantage.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Is that really what ReHabs is saying? Because what I am understanding, is that he's implying that David Reinbacher has an extremely uphill battle just to get back to where he was before he can start to develop to being the player we're hoping he can be. I'm really disappointed in his injury bad luck too. I feel that he has a massive amount of rehab ahead of him. I'm 100% behind him and hope he can do it. The fact that DR is so young will be his biggest advantage.

“If he makes it, it’s a bonus.”

Pretty clear what he’s trolling - I mean saying - there.

 

[Andrei79]

I don't think the team is quite ready yet. I think this will be another year to build upon. Many want this roster to be tight defensively with an excellent PP, but it's still a very inexperienced group and they have some fundamentals of the pro game to learn, which they started to down the stretch last year. We still don't know what some of the pieces really are either in defense and goaltending. I think 2025-2026 is where the playoffs have to be the target. My main issue right now is the lack of depth and the truly awful veterans on the bottom six. It's so frustrating seeing guys like Dvorak, Armia, Gallagher and Anderson. That bottom 6 has no identity and can't even play up/down the lineup. You at least want some grit, off puck IQ, faceoff abilities and some guys who can move up if needed, but we have none of that right now.

 

[Rapala]

I don't think the team is quite ready yet. I think this will be another year to build upon. Many want this roster to be tight defensively with an excellent PP, but it's still a very inexperienced group and they have some fundamentals of the pro game to learn, which they started to down the stretch last year. We still don't know what some of the pieces really are either in defense and goaltending. I think 2025-2026 is where the playoffs have to be the target. My main issue right now is the lack of depth and the truly awful veterans on the bottom six. It's so frustrating seeing guys like Dvorak, Armia, Gallagher and Anderson. That bottom 6 has no identity and can't even play up/down the lineup. You at least want some grit, off puck IQ, faceoff abilities and some guys who can move up if needed, but we have none of that right now.

If we don't make any strides again this year the playoffs will be a huge leap next season.
.500 is realistic but it's not a given.

As far as our special teams go an aggregate of 100% would be a decent improvement but far from excellent.
17.46 and 76.53 last year compared to say Tampa who were 28.63 and 83.33
The reason I chose Tampa is because they ended up fourth in our division.
I'm really not sure where we can make the most improvements if not on special teams.

 

[Laboeuf]

We are missing a true top line centre.

James Hagens could be that.
Also we need another horse in goalie. Carey Price lite.

 

[RealityBytes]

Rebuild? Not looking so good. First ride out/wait out till Price and Gallagher are gone, as well as Petry and Allen wasted spends are gone.

In those two to three years, fire the drafting staff and get a real one that can at least do a better job than a high school kid. Also rebuild the approach to developing any drafted players so they can actually develop. Simple process ... look at other good teams then copy their process. Put some money into it.

Live with the mess for a few years, then after three or four, try to make the playoffs. It will most likely take that. It actually looks that bad.

It is doubtful the Habs will make the playoffs this year or even next. The Atlantic division has the top four of Florida, Boston, Toronto, & Tampa. The bottom four are Detroit, Ottawa, Buffalo, and then the Habs at the bottom. The Habs certainly won't knock off the top three in the Atlantic division and would have to hope for a wild card spot. To do that, they not only have to claw past Tampa, Detroit, Ottawa, & Buffalo who are also trying to make the playoffs for one of those wild card spots, but there will also teams from the Metropolitan division going for them. So, to get a wild card spot, they would not only have to get past Tampa, Ottawa, Buffalo, & Detroit, but as well the Capitals, Penguins, Flyers, a & Devils. Two spots with eight other teams in better shape trying to get them. It just doesn't look like the Habs have the team yet to be able to do that.

So, the Habs have to keep rebuilding but they need to work on both of their acquiring/drafting players as well as developing younger ones before they will get back to a winner. If they don't, they will just sit in that secondary team spot for many years to come.

 

[morhilane]

If we don't make any strides again this year the playoffs will be a huge leap next season.
.500 is realistic but it's not a given.

As far as our special teams go an aggregate of 100% would be a decent improvement but far from excellent.
17.46 and 76.53 last year compared to say Tampa who were 28.63 and 83.33
The reason I chose Tampa is because they ended up fourth in our division.
I'm really not sure where we can make the most improvements if not on special teams.

Despite being 4th in the division last year, Tampa had the top PP in the league and their PK finished 5th as well. They sucked at 5v5, they were 5th in 5v5 GA and had a differential of -19 at 5v5 (their total differential for the season is +23).

But yes, Habs need to improve on the special teams, the defending 6v5 (1st in GA and only the Sharks had a worst differential) and the PK especially (3rd in GA). That's where they hemoraged goals last year. They also need to score more everwhere, not just the PP.