The state of the Habs Rebuild - The Next step

[HuGort]

I wouldn't even give Sam Bennett 7M.
I'd be cautious giving him a long deal.
I feel like he will get injured or just be ineffective like Gallagher, Backes, etc. Guys that play hard all the time.

Best, if you want add top star, is offer sheet rather than UFA. Get them through their prime years and can trade them at 7 years. You not losing nothing. instead of second half of contract being terrible. That's If a UFA will sign here? Seen all the bad contracts Bergevin handed out to get players sign here.

 

[Victoire HuGo]

Would have been nice of Hughes to trade them when their value was high instead of holding out for a king's ransom

'Their'

Lolwut? When was that for Armia and Dvo again?

 

[WeThreeKings]

'Their'

Lolwut? When was that for Armia and Dvo again?

Even Anderson - none of the rumors were ever corroborated that he had value at that time.

 

[Benstheman]

I wish I could fast forward this season and draft.
I want to see the tank for McKenna!

I think we still have a shot at McKenna to be honest.

 

[Benstheman]

If Dach keeps Struggling for big part of the season, we are in for another top 5 pick imo.

So we can get out of the draft with 1 of the top 3 centermen of the draft : Hagens, Frondell, Misa or big boy wingers Martone and McQueen.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

Target year is still 2026-27 for me.

 

[LaP]

Would have been nice of Hughes to trade them when their value was high instead of holding out for a king's ransom

Their value has been rock bottom since the first day KH was hired. They were cap dump at this point.

 

[LaP]

Even Anderson - none of the rumors were ever corroborated that he had value at that time.

I'm still convinced that had Anderson's value been really high like dunno Toffoli he would have been traded by now. Nothing point to KH holding on for a bigger return when the player's value is a 1st and a prospect. He traded everyone who had this kind of value. If Anderson's value was lower than that then his value was indeed never high. It's possible that KH said no to 2nd / 3rd round picks but i would not call that high value.

 

[WeThreeKings]

I'm still convinced that had Anderson's value been really high like dunno Toffoli he would have been traded by now. Nothing point to KH holding on for a bigger return when the player's value is a 1st and a prospect. He traded everyone who had this kind of value. If Anderson's value was lower than that then his value was indeed never high. It's possible that KH said no to 2nd / 3rd round picks but i would not call that high value.

Or the only way to get the 1st was to retain on the contract which they didn't want to do.

 

[morhilane]

I'm still convinced that had Anderson's value been really high like dunno Toffoli he would have been traded by now. Nothing point to KH holding on for a bigger return when the player's value is a 1st and a prospect. He traded everyone who had this kind of value. If Anderson's value was lower than that then his value was indeed never high. It's possible that KH said no to 2nd / 3rd round picks but i would not call that high value.

When Hughes was hired, he didn't hide that he wanted a big overpay to move Anderson (there was trade rumors for 6 months really) and there was an insider in the 2023 summer who said that Hughes refused to trade Anderson for a 1st.

Two years ago, Hughes (or Gorton*) mistakenly thought Anderson's worth on the team was higher than his trade value, when it wasn't the case.

*Gorton said he stopped Hughes from doing trades in an interview this off-season

 

[Rapala]

Doubt it. Pretty hard for Montreal to sign high end guys like Bennett. Taxes, climate and media pressure

We have a budding Sam Bennett type in our system his name is Owen Beck.
Beck is stronger skates better has a better shot just needs to improve his puck management skills.
Sam Bennett is not a High End Guy he's a perfect role playing second line guy with snarls.
I doubt Beck can match the POS style Bennett brings but he can do everything else including driving straight at players.
Beck can possibly have better production than Sam Bennett.
Sam Bennett is a perpetual interference call waiting to happen and he gets away with it so much because it's the only way he plays.

 

[Sorinth]

When Hughes was hired, he didn't hide that he wanted a big overpay to move Anderson (there was trade rumors for 6 months really) and there was an insider in the 2023 summer who said that Hughes refused to trade Anderson for a 1st.

Two years ago, Hughes (or Gorton*) mistakenly thought Anderson's worth on the team was higher than his trade value, when it wasn't the case.

*Gorton said he stopped Hughes from doing trades in an interview this off-season

From what I can recall the insiders with credibility only said that teams enquired about Anderson and that some of the offers were "serious". A quick google search shows this

https://x.com/i/web/status/1535660818607521792

However that doesn't a 1st was actually on the table, it doesn't mean we weren't being asked to retain 50% of his contract, it doesn't mean we were being asked to take on a huge cap dump. I think this summer before the Laine trade people even talked about a Hubredeau for Anderson type of deal, it would've been a serious offer but not because Anderson had a ton of value but because Hubredeau had even less value.

Personally I very much doubt anyone offered a 1st round pick straight up for Anderson without retention simply because playoff teams just don't have the kind of cap space lying around. So if it's retain 50% and take on a 2-3m cap dump signed for a couple years then I could see why we would say no even with the late 1st being the incentive.

 

[Trabdy2]

Some current stats that are not pretty:

5 on 5 xGF%: 37% (last in league)
5 on 5 GF%: 41% (7th last in league)

The values tend to be within +/-5% of each other by season's end, which was true for all but a few teams last year, so we're about "on par" with what we should expect in terms of results at even strength. Our special teams is what's giving us some fighting hope in the standings.

These numbers are absolutely terrible though. The lowest xGF% team that made it to the playoffs last year was Washington at 47.4%, and the lowest overall was SJ at 42%. The projection for this season is very ugly (certainly bottom 5 imo) if we don't make some meaningful adjustments.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Target year is still 2026-27 for me.

Agreed. This rebuild looks good but there is too much youth learning on the job. Fans are so focused with unloading the "dead weight" and having more youth learn on the job. This guy blocking that guy and so on. It's not going to yield the results some fans are looking for. It's the NHL and we are in a very tough East (Atlantic and Metro).

We are not likely to have accelerated transition years after the rebuild. This roster might have flashes of brilliance and then moments of disappointment back/forth in the next few seasons. We are doing nothing until Suzuki is around 28 and Demidov is 23+ (most others in the middle of this range).

 

[Habs Halifax]

From what I can recall the insiders with credibility only said that teams enquired about Anderson and that some of the offers were "serious". A quick google search shows this

https://x.com/i/web/status/1535660818607521792

However that doesn't a 1st was actually on the table, it doesn't mean we weren't being asked to retain 50% of his contract, it doesn't mean we were being asked to take on a huge cap dump. I think this summer before the Laine trade people even talked about a Hubredeau for Anderson type of deal, it would've been a serious offer but not because Anderson had a ton of value but because Hubredeau had even less value.

Personally I very much doubt anyone offered a 1st round pick straight up for Anderson without retention simply because playoff teams just don't have the kind of cap space lying around. So if it's retain 50% and take on a 2-3m cap dump signed for a couple years then I could see why we would say no even with the late 1st being the incentive.

Lebrun himself was quoted... "I can assure you a 1st was offered for Anderson". I can't find it but it was said and it's not some spin on it either! But yeah, we don't know the context of the entire offer. Cap dumps, retention, etc.

Heading into this season, you can find this quote from me... "Expecting Anderson to rebound in a bottom 6F role is reaching".

Make no mistake... A lot of GM's would love to have Anderson's size and skating on their roster. They just want to acquire for cheap and not have him on their roster at a high AAV. Reasonable to assume because we would expect the same if the situation was reversed.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

From what I can recall the insiders with credibility only said that teams enquired about Anderson and that some of the offers were "serious". A quick google search shows this

https://x.com/i/web/status/1535660818607521792

However that doesn't a 1st was actually on the table, it doesn't mean we weren't being asked to retain 50% of his contract, it doesn't mean we were being asked to take on a huge cap dump. I think this summer before the Laine trade people even talked about a Hubredeau for Anderson type of deal, it would've been a serious offer but not because Anderson had a ton of value but because Hubredeau had even less value.

Personally I very much doubt anyone offered a 1st round pick straight up for Anderson without retention simply because playoff teams just don't have the kind of cap space lying around. So if it's retain 50% and take on a 2-3m cap dump signed for a couple years then I could see why we would say no even with the late 1st being the incentive.

Insane to turn down almost any “serious offer” for that bum

 

[Captain Mountain]

Some current stats that are not pretty:

5 on 5 xGF%: 37% (last in league)
5 on 5 GF%: 41% (7th last in league)

The values tend to be within +/-5% of each other by season's end, which was true for all but a few teams last year, so we're about "on par" with what we should expect in terms of results at even strength. Our special teams is what's giving us some fighting hope in the standings.

These numbers are absolutely terrible though. The lowest xGF% team that made it to the playoffs last year was Washington at 47.4%, and the lowest overall was SJ at 42%. The projection for this season is very ugly (certainly bottom 5 imo) if we don't make some meaningful adjustments.

In respect of analytics, the bright side is that Montreal at 5 on 4 has been pretty decent and 4 on 5/PK have been legitimately excellent.

Its also still early in the season, we'll see if the top line can improve 5v5 and if the second line can give anything.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

In respect of analytics, the bright side is that Montreal at 5 on 4 has been pretty decent and 4 on 5/PK have been legitimately excellent.

Its also still early in the season, we'll see if the top line can improve 5v5 and if the second line can give anything.

Laine coming back and Dach regaining his game shape, should help.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Laine coming back and Dach regaining his game shape, should help.

Offensively at least, but I think the bigger problem with Montreal right now 5v5 is defence and I don't see that being fixed this season, since IMO its a mix of coaching, personnel and poor execution.

Its also more of a top 6 problem ATM too, Heineman-Dvorak-Kapanen and Anderson-Evans-Gallagher are over 50% expected goals and goals on the ice. But the Newhook-Dach-Armia line has been atrocious and the Caufield-Suzuki-Slafkovsky line has been disjointed as hell and are costing on skill and shooting luck.

 

[LaP]

Offensively at least, but I think the bigger problem with Montreal right now 5v5 is defence and I don't see that being fixed this season, since IMO its a mix of coaching, personnel and poor execution.

Its also more of a top 6 problem ATM too, Heineman-Dvorak-Kapanen and Anderson-Evans-Gallagher are over 50% expected goals and goals on the ice. But the Newhook-Dach-Armia line has been atrocious and the Caufield-Suzuki-Slafkovsky line has been disjointed as hell and are costing on skill and shooting luck.

Let's not pretend the bottom 6 has been incredible please. That would be putting the bar very low. The most productive bottom 6 player is on pace for 27 points. That's an average production for a 3rd liner. None of them have strong intangibles. They are not physical. They do not possess selke defensive skills. None of them is very strong on the forecheck and/or are hard to play against.

The bottom 6 has been okay like the first line has been okay. But you can't really say this bottom 6 has been doing better than other bottom 6 so that means the rest of the team would need to make the difference for us to win games. Outside of Caufield and Guhle the whole team has been meh outside of some flashes here and there.

We are far from having guys like prime Mike Keane in our bottom 6 and that's the type of guys you want to give you an edge over the other teams.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Let's not pretend the bottom 6 has been incredible please. That would be putting the bar very low. The most productive bottom 6 player is on pace for 27 points. That's an average production for a 3rd liner. None of them have strong intangibles. They are not physical. They do not possess selke defensive skills. None of them is very strong on the forecheck and/or are hard to play against.

The bottom 6 has been okay like the first line has been okay. But you can't really say this bottom 6 has been doing better than other bottom 6 so that means the rest of the team would need to make the difference for us to win games. Outside of Caufield and Guhle the whole team has been meh outside of some flashes here and there.

We are far from having guys like prime Mike Keane in our bottom 6 and that's the type of guys you want to give you an edge over the other teams.

Where did I say that the bottom 6 was incredible? Or anything close to that? I said the problem is more the top-6 and referenced stats which indicate that the bottom-6's play hasn't been a problem.

I'd push back on some of those characterizations (especially since Montreal as a whole doesn't seem to want to play a strong "forecheck and/or are hard to play against" game. (And as an FYI, Heineman has been among the most physically engaged players in the NHL this season.)

The point is, the only consistently caved in current lines are Suzuki's and Dach's and the only line that's underwater goals-wise is Dach's. Don't mistake not laying blame on the bottom 6 guys as praise.

 

[Sorinth]

Insane to turn down almost any “serious offer” for that bum

Serious can easily just mean a big name, it doesn't mean it's a good deal. Would taking a bigger name on a worse contract be insane to turn down. I doubt it.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

Serious can easily just mean a big name, it doesn't mean it's a good deal. Would taking a bigger name on a worse contract be insane to turn down. I doubt it.

Could they be a worse player? I doubt it

 

[Sorinth]

Could they be a worse player? I doubt it

Maybe not but worse contract absolutetly. I know I wouldn't make a 1 for 1 trade for Hubredeau, Dubois, Nurse, Jones, or Wilson just to name a few. And they would all be considered serious offers.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

Maybe not but worse contract absolutetly. I know I wouldn't make a 1 for 1 trade for Hubredeau, Dubois, Nurse, Jones, or Wilson just to name a few. And they would all be considered serious offers.

Fair enough