Player Discussion The Slaf Thread - Parabolic Growth Edition

[Legend123]

He just doesn't try hard enough. Too much casual skating

 

[ReHabs]

Are we just supposed to go along with the idea that he's bottom five based on the chart you posted?

Your "chart" is comparing all of those players after three years in the NHL. You've "projected" Slafkovsky's totals for his third season, and then announced he's bottom 5.

Is this a joke?

I didn't project Slaf's totals, I used the up to date ones. It's a simple PPG comparison - my reply was to the person who called me a liar, I was simply wrong to say he's the worst producing one, he's a bottom5 producing 1OA (or first picked forward) of that cohort. It happens often that I'm wrong but that doesn't make a Republican.

 

[FerrisRox]

I didn't project Slaf's totals, I used the up to date ones. It's a simple PPG comparison - my reply was to the person who called me a liar, I was simply wrong to say he's the worst producing one, he's a bottom5 producing 1OA (or first picked forward) of that cohort. It happens often that I'm wrong but that doesn't make a Republican.

Your chart compares all the draft picks after three seasons in the NHL.

Slafkovsky is currently in the middle of his third season.

What are you talking about?

 

[ReHabs]

Your chart compares all the draft picks after three seasons in the NHL.

Slafkovsky is currently in the middle of his third season.

What are you talking about?

Slaf's PPG with 1 game played in his 3rd season, 36 games played, or 82 games played in his 3rd season will still be his PPG in his 3rd season. It will still be a single number. It could be his PPG changes between now and the end of the season (I hope it does).

I'm obviously not going to take mid-season PPG rates for historical data. The chart can be updated as the season goes on -- I responded to someone saying he is the worst productive yadayadayada but I was wrong, as of writing he's not got the worst PPG and he's unlikely to have a PPG as low as Patrik Stefan's after three seasons. Hope this helps.

 

[Erika]

"only reappearing" except for all the times I was normally appearing, sure.

It wasn't a lie, I was wrong. I posted about it here. Calling me a blatant liar is unnecessary, don't you think? Can't a fella be wrong?

Slaf isn't the worst producing 1st in the past 25 years, he's bottom5 along with Patrik Stefan and Nail Yakupov. I was totally wrong.

Brilliant comment.

Putting Slaf with Patrik Stefan and Nail Yakupov seems unreasonable at this point. The kid is still 20 years old for crying out loud. He is still on par with Cooley at this point on who goes first overall in a redraft. I'm sorry, but your boy toy Shane Wright is not going to be better and don't tell me you wanted Cooley all along because you're full of it.

You just sound like a pure troll and any debate with you to make you change your mind about Slaf is pointless. Your mind is already made up.

 

[JoelWarlord]

This all just feels way too dramatic to me. 20 year old big guy has looked off this year and hasn't looked like the same guy as he was to close out last year. Despite all that, and after spending a big chunk of the season with Dach/Armia/Newhook while those guys were also heavily struggling, he's still on pace for right around 50 points. If the floor is a ~50P pace is in what's pretty close to a "worst case" first half absent a season-ending injury I just don't think there's very much to worry about here.

Is there a compelling reason to be concerned that he suddenly forgot to play with the intensity we saw in the 2nd half of last year? The intensity is what's missing and it seems considerably more likely to me that there's a combination of a "sophomore" slump and potentially some injury stuff going on. I'd kinda get the anxiety more if we hadn't seen the proof of concept but we have already seen the fully realized vision of what this player can be and he's not the first 20 year old to have ups and downs from year to year. Over the last few weeks we've seen Christian Dvorak break out of a year+ long slump of lackadaisical play and start playing with some fire, I'm just not really sure why I'd be concerned that Slafkovsky's hockey IQ is so deficient that he can't begin playing with intensity like he did 8-12 months ago again.

 

[Frank Drebin]

I thought you said you laugh at it and dismiss it off-hand. Because you know better.


What’s the likelihood you don’t know what’s happening in the hearts of other commentators and thus can’t tell for certain that everyone with whom you disagree has ulterior motives? 0.5%? 5%? 50%? 95%?


I’m sorry to have missed your prime. Surely you’d understand meta-whining and grandstanding about your personal virtue is obnoxious but I’m sure you have your reasons.

Insisting to interact with other commentators with such animus doesn’t make you look very reasonable either. Maybe you weren’t so grumpy before.

hes always been this grumpy

 

[Prettyisland]

He’s playing poorly.Buts hes also 20 yrs old. 21 points isnt lighting the world on fire but its not exactly a no show either.

I get it’s frustrating but making any concrete analysis on what he will be for the duration of his contract is impossible right now

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Had to dust off an old file, sorry for the delay.

I was wrong, he's not the worst producing 1OA (or 2OA, first picked forward) of the last quarter century since his draft. I was totally wrong so thanks of the stat check.

He's in the bottom5 in PPG with: Patrik Stefan, Jordan Staal, Nail Yakupov, Alexis Lafreniere, and Juraj Slafkovsky.

He's better than all of those players.

But you knew that when you made your original post.

My honest to God feeling is that I still do not understand why someone with his size, reach, horsepower, and bravado cannot produce more. When he tore the league up last year it felt like a revelation. I don't know why he's not doing it again. He has all the tools. Something is missing.

View attachment 957030

He's producing just fine. 50 points at 20 years old is good. He's going to improve as he goes, this is is floor.

Again, not superstar. Never will be. But he'll be a solid 1st liner who will be able to play with some physicality. Big skilled strong players are hard to find. He's going to be just fine in that role.

Over the course of a rebuild you expect to land a couple of star players and some very good players along the way. Slaf will be among the very good we've gotten. Not a superstar but 1st line caliber. We need Demidov to hit with Hutson. If that happens we're in great shape.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Slaf career path so far looks like a less skilled Lecavalier. Lecavalier had a rough 1st season and then did very well in his 2nd season before stuggling for part of his 3rd and even more so his 4th season (specially defensively). His 5th season this is where he spread its wings.

Yeah, Lecavalier is a good comparison. That's about where I think he can get to. Maybe a little more physical with fewer goals.

 

[sampollock]

can we combine the 2 Slaf threads?????????????

 

[Victoire HuGo]

Yeah, Lecavalier is a good comparison. That's about where I think he can get to. Maybe a little more physical with fewer goals.

I'd be very happy with that outcome. Lecavalier was a top 5 player in the world at one point before he got into that fight. He was also worth Price Subban Pacioretty and Caufield too according to Lawton

 

[SlafySZN]

can we combine the 2 Slaf threads?????????????

They should at this point.

 

[Victoire HuGo]

can we combine the 2 Slaf threads?????????????

So my hard work can slip through the cracks?

 

[Naslundforever]

Do we even know why he was benched from MSL’s mouth (I mean shortening the bench was the right call but I never heard he was injured or something sry if late with the news)?

 

[cave troll]

1) He is still adjusting to the fact that he no longer has a huge size and strength advantage over 95 percent of his opponents. I see him taking hits after making passes, or along the boards, where he seems genuinely surprised by the hit. Before the NHL, these hits would bounce off him or not even register. Now, playing exclusively against men and people his size or even larger, he needs to adapt to avoid taking this kind of contact where he never had to even give it much thought. This is very common with big teenagers that play in the league. The advantage their size afforded them at lower levels is not nearly as pronounced in the NHL, and they have to make adjustments. That's what Slaf is doing right now, but there are some hard (literally) lessons along the way. Once he matures a little, physically and mentally, he will be able to use his size and strength to his advantage again.

Hockey historians don't agree with this. He didn't come to NHL form junior hockey but was writing history playing vs men in Liiga, WC, Olympics, friendlies...
He is reluctant to shoot and reluctant to make plays. There is something wrong going on inside his head. Maybe some anxiety about him just keeping the spot in 1st line for Demidov?
Well, next year he'll cheer up after his account starts to show millions on it.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I'd be very happy with that outcome. Lecavalier was a top 5 player in the world at one point before he got into that fight. He was also worth Price Subban Pacioretty and Caufield too according to Lawton

I don't think Lecavalier was ever a top five player. He had a great season but never reached the heights projected for him.

I think Slaf could be a consistent 25 goal 70+ point player with physical edge to him. 20 years old now and he's pacing for around 50 points. That's not bad at all.

Totally agree with the criticims of his play this year. Needs more intensity and it's been underwhelming. But it hasn't been terrible and I think people go overboard in their criticisms of him, mostly because he was a first overall. It's a simple fact that the Canadiens could only compare him to everyone else in THAT draft. Connor Bedard wasn't available. Cellebrini wasn't available. Neither were Crosby or Ovechkin. The guys we had to evaluate him against were Shane Wright and Cooley. So far, I'd take him over either of them. That may change over time but if you were to ask me today, he was the right choice.

And honestly, I think we wound up wtih a superstar from that draft anwyay. We just happened to get him with the 62nd pick instead of the first.

 

[Frankenheimer]

He's better than all of those players.

But you knew that when you made your original post.

It was good to admit he was wrong, but disingenous to say it was originally a mistake. If you have a personal spreadsheet just for illustrating Slaf's lack of progress relative to other draft picks, and have posted about it hundreds of times, it's not something you don't have at the tip of your fingers. It was clearly an attempt to troll a reaction and it worked. And now the purpose of bringing up the "mistake" is to highlight that he's "bottom 5".

By the way, what was your choice for the draft Rehabs? Mine was Shane Wright, but I think Slaf was a good pick and will turn out to be among the top 5 in the draft. I wasn't expecting a generational or phenomenal talent. I obviously would prefer more consistency, but when he's been consistent he has been surprisingly good and even dominant. Since its clear he can attain that level, it is now a matter of seeing if he can reach it consistently within next 2-3 years (timeframe Hughes indicated would be used for evaluating a player like Slaf).

 

[Kennerback]

He is reluctant to shoot and reluctant to make plays. There is something wrong going on inside his head. Maybe some anxiety about him just keeping the spot in 1st line for Demidov?
Well, next year he'll cheer up after his account starts to show millions on it.

One example is he’s completely stopped to skate the puck between the two blue lines. Is this the coaching staff that made him stop or is it himself? We know he can do it. He just doesn’t.

 

[morhilane]

Do we even know why he was benched from MSL’s mouth (I mean shortening the bench was the right call but I never heard he was injured or something sry if late with the news)?

I haven't found any quotes from MSL about it. The bench was shortened, Pezz only played 1 shift early in the 3rd, then Slaf, Heineman and Struble were all benched later.

 

[Naslundforever]

I haven't found any quotes from MSL about it. The bench was shortened, Pezz only played 1 shift early in the 3rd, then Slaf, Heineman and Struble were all benched later.

It’s nice to see MSL showing patience with his players but cuts it short moving forward when the game is on the line.

 

[ReHabs]

It was good to admit he was wrong, but disingenous to say it was originally a mistake. If you have a personal spreadsheet just for illustrating Slaf's lack of progress relative to other draft picks, and have posted about it hundreds of times, it's not something you don't have at the tip of your fingers. It was clearly an attempt to troll a reaction and it worked. And now the purpose of bringing up the "mistake" is to highlight that he's "bottom 5".

I hadn't updated it since some point of last season, because I thought the debate was over. I had to find the excel file in an old folder. The initial point of the tool was my attempt to prove Slaf was being misplayed in the NHL... and on a bad path. I was adamant that he should've started his career in the AHL or back in Liiga. After the second-half season he had, where he smoked the league, it seemed the Habs were proven right and I was proven wrong so the debate was settled.

Why do you guys always insist on bad faith when there's a far more clear answer -- I had to update the numbers on an old excel file. It's not so complicated. Why would I need to troll for a reaction when I could elicit a reaction with facts just as well?

By the way, what was your choice for the draft Rehabs? Mine was Shane Wright, but I think Slaf was a good pick and will turn out to be among the top 5 in the draft. I wasn't expecting a generational or phenomenal talent. I obviously would prefer more consistency, but when he's been consistent he has been surprisingly good and even dominant. Since its clear he can attain that level, it is now a matter of seeing if he can reach it consistently within next 2-3 years (timeframe Hughes indicated would be used for evaluating a player like Slaf).

I didn't follow that draft too closely because I thought it was guaranteed to be Shane Wright. The few weeks leading to the draft were much more frustrating because I insisted it should be Shane Wright because I didn't want the Habs to "galaxy brain" the pick -- this was a new Habs leadership and I didn't trust them, being the pessimist I am. I thought Slaf's prospect profile didn't show a 1OA pick just as much as Shane Wright's prospect profile declined. I didn't rate Logan Cooley due to his size. I thought Jiricek was much more interesting than Nemec.

In 2023 and 2024 I had my preferences but 2022 I went with the default and argued for the default. I was wrong about that too, obviously.

 

[sampollock]

I don't think Lecavalier was ever a top five player. He had a great season but never reached the heights projected for him.

I think Slaf could be a consistent 25 goal 70+ point player with physical edge to him. 20 years old now and he's pacing for around 50 points. That's not bad at all.

Totally agree with the criticims of his play this year. Needs more intensity and it's been underwhelming. But it hasn't been terrible and I think people go overboard in their criticisms of him, mostly because he was a first overall. It's a simple fact that the Canadiens could only compare him to everyone else in THAT draft. Connor Bedard wasn't available. Cellebrini wasn't available. Neither were Crosby or Ovechkin. The guys we had to evaluate him against were Shane Wright and Cooley. So far, I'd take him over either of them. That may change over time but if you were to ask me today, he was the right choice.

And honestly, I think we wound up wtih a superstar from that draft anwyay. We just happened to get him with the 62nd pick instead of the first.

can we combine these 2 slaf threads or not. just asking

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I hadn't updated it since some point of last season, because I thought the debate was over. I had to find the excel file in an old folder. The initial point of the tool was my attempt to prove Slaf was being misplayed in the NHL... and on a bad path. I was adamant that he should've started his career in the AHL or back in Liiga. After the second-half season he had, where he smoked the league, it seemed the Habs were proven right and I was proven wrong so the debate was settled.

Why do you guys always insist on bad faith when there's a far more clear answer -- I had to update the numbers on an old excel file. It's not so complicated. Why would I need to troll for a reaction when I could elicit a reaction with facts just as well?

It was very clearly a bad faith statement designed to rile people up.

And I don't know why you do this. You could be a much better poster than you are. But you insist on pot stirring.

If you want to say he's among the weaker first overalls... that's fine and accurate. Again though, that in itself is a little silly considering Montreal was stuck with the first overall in the 2022 draft. As said earlier, Montreal didn't have the option of drafting Celebrini or Bedard. It was Slaf or Cooley or Wright. But that's not negative enough so you have to go and make it look like they screwed up with their first overall....

The reality is that he won't be a superstar. That's fine. We got one later on anyway.

 

[FerrisRox]

Putting Slaf with Patrik Stefan and Nail Yakupov seems unreasonable at this point.

It's not just unreasonable, it's idiotic.

Nail Yakupov has *never* had a 50 point season as a professional. Not in the NHL or the KHL.

Patrik Stefan has *never* had a 50 point season as a professional. Not in the NHL, the IHL, the AHL or the Swiss League.

Slafkovsky scored 50 points in the only complete NHL season he has played. Anybody "comparing" these players is completely clueless or has an obvious (and idiotic) agenda.

Don't feed the trolls.