The Significance of the 103 Shutouts Record?

[JimEIV]

Which benchmark do you think should have been used?

I think the central idea of all of my post regarding save percentage is that there is a major difference between a goalie that plays 70 games and one that plays less than 50.

I would think a number of games to prove or disprove that point would be something more like 50 or 60 games. Or maybe even the median games played of all starting goalies in the league.

I still believe when we are looking at the goaltenders who are playing a significantly higher workload their stats can't not be compared with the same weight to the goaltender with an easier workload -- I personally think the easier workload cutoff is right about 50/55 games

What do you think?

 

[JimEIV]

Their historical records don't really support your viewpoint.

I think it kind of does...What I am looking at is the players that play a huge workload.

Thomas' really never played a huge workload, but his lowest save percentage is with his Career high games played

Tim Thomas:
38 GP, .917
66 GP, .905
57 GP, .921
49 GP, .931

Nabokov's Is the one here that is kind of messed up ... Because his lowest save% is the year with his fewest games. But this was because of a groin problem for most of the 2005-06 season.

But, His 3 highest games played of 66, 67 and 70 never produce a higher save% than the year he only played 59 games and had a .921.

11 GP, .910
66 GP, .915
67 GP, .918
55 GP, .906
59 GP, .921
45 GP, .885
50 GP, .914
77 GP, .910
52 GP, .912

Kippers highest save% came with 38 games played. During the time he playing the heavy workload of 67+ starts a season he never came close to the .930 mark he put up in 38 games.
Miikka Kiprusoff:
20 GP, .915
22 GP, .879
38 GP, .933
74 GP, .923
74 GP, .917
76 GP, .906
67 GP, .904

 

[Bear of Bad News]

I think it kind of does...What I am looking at is the players that play a huge workload.

Sample size - see post #70 in this thread. If Thomas or Kiprusoff had posted numbers on the other end of the spectrum (due to random chance), they'd have been sent to the minors and you wouldn't be talking about them at all.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Let's look at all goalies, 2006-2009.

Number of starts|Save percentage|Source
70+ games|91.36%| Source
60 to 69 games|90.80%| Source
50 to 59 games|90.83%| Source
40 to 49 games|90.82%| Source

It looks like goalies have virtually the save percentage whether they play 40ish, 50ish or 60ish games in a season.

Save percentage actually improves quite a bit in 70+ game category, but that's because only the best goalies in the league are given so many opportunities to play by their coaches. Brodeur, Luongo, Kipprusoff and Lundqvist account for 11 of the 14 seasons with 70+ games.

 

[JimEIV]

And interestingly Brodeur's highest save% in a full season came in a year he played his fewest games...Maybe just a coincidence? It seems rather significant to me.

But I really believe the differnce between 50 and 60 then 60 and 70 and finally 70+ are huge differences that effect save%.

Year Team GP GS MIN W L T OTL EGA GA GAA SA SV SV% SO
1995-96 NJ 77 75 4433 34 30 12 0 8 173 2.34 1954 1781 .911 6
1996-97 NJ 67 64 3838 37 14 13 0 5 120 1.88 1633 1513 .927 10
1997-98 NJ 70 69 4128 43 17 8 0 4 130 1.89 1569 1439 .917 10
1998-99 NJ 70 70 4239 39 21 10 0 4 162 2.29 1728 1566 .906 4
1999-00 NJ 72 72 4312 43 20 8 0 3 161 2.24 1797 1636 .910 6
2000-01 NJ 72 72 4296 42 17 11 0 2 166 2.32 1762 1596 .906 9
2001-02 NJ 73 73 4347 38 26 9 0 5 156 2.15 1655 1499 .906 4
2002-03 NJ 73 73 4374 41 23 9 0 4 147 2.02 1706 1559 .914 9
2003-04 NJ 75 75 4555 38 26 11 0 4 154 2.03 1845 1691 .917 11
2005-06 NJ 73 73 4365 43 23 0 7 2 187 2.57 2105 1918 .911 5
2006-07 NJ 78 78 4697 48 23 0 7 5 171 2.18 2182 2011 .922 12
2007-08 NJ 77 77 4635 44 27 0 6 8 168 2.17 2089 1921 .920 4
2008-09 NJ 22 22 1287 15 5 0 2 2 46 2.14 586 540 .922 5

 

[JimEIV]

Let's look at all goalies, 2006-2009.

Number of starts|Save percentage|Source
70+ games|91.36%| Source
60 to 69 games|90.80%| Source
50 to 59 games|90.83%| Source
40 to 49 games|90.82%| Source

It looks like goalies have virtually the save percentage whether they play 40ish, 50ish or 60ish games in a season.

Save percentage actually improves quite a bit in 70+ game category, but that's because only the best goalies in the league are given so many opportunities to play by their coaches. Brodeur, Luongo, Kipprusoff and Lundqvist account for 11 of the 14 seasons with 70+ games.

But I think you would have to look at the numbers on a goalie by goalie basis....If Brodeur plays 70+ games and then he plays 50 games is there a difference in HIS save%?
That is the real question.

 

[JimEIV]

Sample size - see post #70 in this thread. If Thomas or Kiprusoff had posted numbers on the other end of the spectrum (due to random chance), they'd have been sent to the minors and you wouldn't be talking about them at all.

I'm not sure what you mean with the Thomas and Kipper example...But I think in both of there cases it obvious they both couldn't put as high of a save percentage in a big workload years as they could playing few games.

The Thomas example seems rather glaring.

Tim Thomas:
38 GP, .917
66 GP, .905
57 GP, .921
49 GP, .931

 

[seventieslord]

I think a couple questions need to be asked:

1) Have you ever seen proof throughout the course of a season that a goalie's play degrades as he plays more and more, and if they start giving him nights off he starts to play better? Have you ever seen quotes from goalies saying things like "it's a little harder to keep the stats up when I play so many games" or the coaches defending their goalie for something similar,

2) If making your starting goalie stop as high a percentage of shots as possible is your goal, why on earth haven't a team as smart as the Devils figured this out and played Brodeur less? If he's merely a .915 goalie when he plays 70 games, but could hypothetically be .920 when he plays only 60, that would mean he's just .885 in those "extra" 10 games that are fatiguing him so much. Surely even a below-average backup would exceed that figure.

I would say that the reason the Devils never figured out #2, is because they have never seen a case of #1.

 

[overpass]

I think a couple questions need to be asked:

1) Have you ever seen proof throughout the course of a season that a goalie's play degrades as he plays more and more, and if they start giving him nights off he starts to play better? Have you ever seen quotes from goalies saying things like "it's a little harder to keep the stats up when I play so many games" or the coaches defending their goalie for something similar,

2) If making your starting goalie stop as high a percentage of shots as possible is your goal, why on earth haven't a team as smart as the Devils figured this out and played Brodeur less? If he's merely a .915 goalie when he plays 70 games, but could hypothetically be .920 when he plays only 60, that would mean he's just .885 in those "extra" 10 games that are fatiguing him so much. Surely even a below-average backup would exceed that figure.

I would say that the reason the Devils never figured out #2, is because they have never seen a case of #1.

I'll play devil's advocate here. Studies and common sense tell us that teams perform worse in the second game of a pair of back-to-back games on the road. It's not a stretch to suggest that goalies will perform worse in the same situations, for the same reasons. Even if they don't, the team in front of them will play worse and allow more shots and quality scoring chances, depressing their stats.

Let's suggest that your "extra" 10 games with a SV% of 0.885 are from the second half of road back-to-back games or something similar. In that case, playing the backup goalie would mean that you had a fresh goalie (although he might still be tired from travel), but if he's playing in front of a tired team he can't necessarily be expected to have a SV% above 0.885.

Also, of course the team's goal should not be to maximize the SV% of the starting goaltender, as you suggested. The team's goal with regard to SV% should be to maximize team SV%, which might involve playing the starting goaltender more simply because he's better than the backup, even if his individual SV% takes a slight hit from fatigue. This may be the case this season in Calgary.

Personally, while I'm open to the idea that there's a small effect I don't think it could be too large, for the reasons you suggest. Kiprusoff is almost certainly not a 0.915+ SV% goalie worn down by playing time - if he is, Calgary would be incredibly stupid not to rest him more often.

 

[ContrarianGoaltender]

I'm not sure what you mean with the Thomas and Kipper example...But I think in both of there cases it obvious they both couldn't put as high of a save percentage in a big workload years as they could playing few games.

The Thomas example seems rather glaring.

Tim Thomas:
38 GP, .917
66 GP, .905
57 GP, .921
49 GP, .931

It's not at all obvious, you are just seeing what you want to see.

Thomas played 277 more minutes in 2006-07 than he did in 2007-08. That is the equivalent of 4 and a half full games. There is not a chance in the world that those extra minutes had a significant impact on his ability to stop the puck. Let's assume he played those extra 277 minutes in 2007-08, and that he faced shots against at the same rate. For his .921 to drop down to .905, he would have had to let in 42 goals on 143 shots (.706 save percentage). Do you think that would be likely to happen?

Same thing with Nabokov - there is no significant difference between 59 games and 65 games, it's one extra game per month. Hockey Outsider's stats make that pretty clear.

Also, if you look at month-by-month goalie results, they are very similar month-to-month. Goalies don't get worse at the end of the season. In fact, they usually do worst in the first month of the season, before playing themselves into form. That's not what we would expect if fatigue is a very significant variable.

And interestingly Brodeur's highest save% in a full season came in a year he played his fewest games...Maybe just a coincidence? It seems rather significant to me.

Nope. Look at his backup goalie, Mike Dunham. With Dunham behind him, Brodeur had two of his lowest seasonal games played totals. With much worse goalies behind him, he played a lot more games. The talent of the backup goalie is the most significant variable in determining the number of games played by a starting goalie.

Take, for example, Thomas in 2005-06. He played more games because his backup was terrible (Hannu Toivonen and his .879 save percentage). Thomas played fewer games in 2006-07 despite playing much better, and is on pace for even fewer games this season despite playing like one of the top goalies in the league, simply because Alex Auld and Manny Fernandez are much better backups.

Nabokov is another great example. He played with Toskala in 2006-07, and they split starts. Then he played with Dmitri Patzold and Thomas Greiss, and he played 77 games and was nominated for the Vezina. His stats are almost identical both years, so somehow having worse backups means you are a better goalie?

Like Seventieslord says, if fatigue effects exist, and goalies play worse the more games they play, then there is some threshold where the team is better off having the backup goalie in the net. The better the backup, the more times he is likely to exceed the threshold, and the result is fewer games for the starting goalie.

But I think you would have to look at the numbers on a goalie by goalie basis....If Brodeur plays 70+ games and then he plays 50 games is there a difference in HIS save%?
That is the real question.

Exactly. And this year Brodeur has only played 22 games on a much better team, so naturally he has a much higher save percentage than he did the last two years:

2006-07: 78 GP, .922
2007-08: 77 GP, .920
2008-09: 22 GP, .922

Hang on a second....

 

[Guest]

Forgive me for not reading the entire thread, but I do think it is a significant achievement, but I think you have to take it in context. I'd be curious to see the number of shutouts in total during each players era to see what percentage of the total shutouts that player got. I can only speak for the current era in which I witness, but I would imagine Brodeur's got a high volume of shutouts in an era that has produced a higher volume of shutouts. For example, if all things are equal and Brodeur & Sawchuk each have 103 shutouts, I would like to see the total number of shutouts in each of those eras to see who had the highest market share of those shutouts.

It's kind of like the scoring record. When the scoring is at it's highest, it's relative to the era of the game. If you saw someone break the scoring record now, I think it would be much more significant than when Gretzky broke it because of the reduction in scoring since his success.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

I think this record will be what defines Brodeur moreso than the wins. I think the wins record wil ultimately be more associated with Roy than Brodeur, however I think the shutout record will be the one most remember when they think of Brodeur 15-20 years from now.

 

[JerseyMike]

Since everyone seems to be so up in arms over Brodeur breaking Roy's record and having the shootouts count towards that record, then I think it's fair to say that Brodeur has already beaten Terry Sawchuk's record for shutouts, or at the very least Terry Sawchuk should have an asterisk next to his name.

Luckily for Sawchuk he never had to keep his shutouts an extra 5 minutes per game since he didn't have the overtime period to be played, but the purists will just ignore that too....

 

[haakon84]

I think this record will be what defines Brodeur moreso than the wins. I think the wins record wil ultimately be more associated with Roy than Brodeur, however I think the shutout record will be the one most remember when they think of Brodeur 15-20 years from now.

I don't think this is the case at all because Brodeur could amass close to 700 wins which would be just as impressive of a feat to accomplish for any goaltender when you consider it may be 30% more than the next guy who is 30% more than the next guy.

Playoff wins maybe. As someone pointed out its a ~55% increase of wins between Roy and Brodeur, but a couple deep runs and Brodeur could close the gap to closer to 30%.

 

[JimEIV]

Exactly. And this year Brodeur has only played 22 games on a much better team, so naturally he has a much higher save percentage than he did the last two years:

2006-07: 78 GP, .922
2007-08: 77 GP, .920
2008-09: 22 GP, .922

Hang on a second....

Nothing for nothing, but Sunday morning his save% was .928 . He just had 2 games in a row of giving up 4 goals.

EDIT:

And on his backup in 1996-97. That was BS. Lou skirted the rules to get Dunham 25 games played so he wouldn't become a free agent (or eligible for the expansion draft I can't remember which).

Notice Dunham only played about 1000 minutes that season but has 26 games played.

The Devils were literally pulling Brodeur with 5 minutes left and putting Dunham in the game so he would get a "game played". That season they pulled Brodeur who was working on a shutout and put Dunham in the net....They shared the shutout (Edit: actually they didn't share it, it went to Dunham).

It was totally BS and one of the most embarressing displays I've ever seen from Management.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Since everyone seems to be so up in arms over Brodeur breaking Roy's record and having the shootouts count towards that record, then I think it's fair to say that Brodeur has already beaten Terry Sawchuk's record for shutouts, or at the very least Terry Sawchuk should have an asterisk next to his name.

Luckily for Sawchuk he never had to keep his shutouts an extra 5 minutes per game since he didn't have the overtime period to be played, but the purists will just ignore that too....

Well played.

 

[seventieslord]

Yes, totally, all those scoreless ties Sawchuk was a part of... if those went into overtime he'd probably only have 70-80 career shutouts...

 

[nik jr]

Yes, totally, all those scoreless ties Sawchuk was a part of... if those went into overtime he'd probably only have 70-80 career shutouts...

plus seasons were only 70 games for almost all of sawchuk's career.

and no OT means many fewer wins.

 

[BrodeursCups]

I think this record will be what defines Brodeur moreso than the wins. I think the wins record wil ultimately be more associated with Roy than Brodeur, however I think the shutout record will be the one most remember when they think of Brodeur 15-20 years from now.

Marty will be remembered for both next season when he has added another 27 wins to his total (thus silencing people who point to his 27 shootout wins as the reason why he's #1 right now)...