The San Jose Sharks are horror-bad

[weastern bias]

Yeah, but in this system you'd still have top 5 picks. Drafting definitely helps. I am not abolishing the draft.

Assuming though, that the draft is the most important singular aspect of winning the cup - all teams would be on relatively equal footing every 32 years. Where is the problem? The only difference here would be there would be no benefit in intentionally tanking while hoarding draft picks.

The problem comes when those picks are not distributed to the teams that earnestly need them to build a team

Consider this scenario:

Team X hasn't made the playoffs in years, they don't have talent and don't play in a glamor market that attracts free agents, their turn on the wheel finally comes up and they get to draft the next great young player in the league and finally have something to build around and market to fans

The next year team Y wins the cup and at the end of the year and their turn on the wheel comes up, now they get to add another young star to an already accomplished group that could have competed the next year without him but now they are a juggernaut

In a scenario like this Team X's pick is essentially invalidated, the league has fostered an environment where the best teams can get so much better that even the supplement of a #1 pick can't help them to reasonably compete, who knows if they can even make the playoffs again before their star gets mad and demands out

The random wheel is such a pandora's box of unforseen side effects waiting to happen, it doesn't help any team in any thoughtful direction and would likely lead to disastrous side effects for bottom dwelling clubs

 

[TheBeard]

Yeah, but in this system you'd still have top 5 picks. Drafting definitely helps. I am not abolishing the draft.

Assuming though, that the draft is the most important singular aspect of winning the cup - all teams would be on relatively equal footing every 32 years. Where is the problem? The only difference here would be there would be no benefit in intentionally tanking while hoarding draft picks.



I'm talking about their cups, not their playoff runs.

You don't have to draft HoF players year in and out, but you must hit on a few players during a 30 year period. Look at Montreal for example, getting Price once at 5th overall made them competitive for almost 20 years.

I’m not really sure what you’re arguing anymore. First you said we shouldn’t just be giving 1oa to teams in need but now you’re saying getting 1oa isn’t really all that important.

 

[Divine]

The problem comes when those picks are not distributed to the teams that earnestly need them to build a team

Consider this scenario:

Team X hasn't made the playoffs in years, they don't have talent and don't play in a glamor market that attracts free agents, their turn on the wheel finally comes up and they get to draft the next great young player in the league and finally have something to build around and market to fans

The next year team Y wins the cup and at the end of the year and their turn on the wheel comes up, now they get to add another young star to an already accomplished group that could have competed the next year without him but now they are a juggernaut

In a scenario like this Team X's pick is essentially invalidated, the league has fostered an environment where the best teams can get so much better that even the supplement of a #1 pick can't help them to reasonably compete, who knows if they can even make the playoffs again before their star gets mad and demands out

The random wheel is such a pandora's box of unforseen side effects waiting to happen, it doesn't help any team in any thoughtful direction and would likely lead to disastrous side effects for bottom dwelling clubs

Yes, but that scenerio is rare.

Initially, yes, that could happen. However, over time, would the balance not adjust accordingly? Teams are still going to trade their players for other teams picks and vice versa and we'll eventually get back to the normal up and down cycle of teams.

Also - I assume most teams would be competititve every year in this scenario. There shouldn't be a year where a team is actively not trying to make the playoffs.

Look at the NFL for example, no draft lottery and you have teams that are not expected to win a game the entire season. That's ridiculous to me.

I’m not really sure what you’re arguing anymore. First you said we shouldn’t just be giving 1oa to teams in need but now you’re saying getting 1oa isn’t really all that important.

I never said the former or latter.

Any draft picks, including, but not limited to first overalls are important. I think every team should try to be competitive every season and not play a season with 20M in free cap space to select first overall. I do not think that is good for entertainment, the fanbase, or the league.

 

[Stickpucker]

I saw Sharks in COW Palace in Daly City during their 1st season.They were quite awful.This Sharks team may be even worse

Okay...what is the COW palace? Sounds like there is a good history story there.

 

[weastern bias]

Yes, but that scenerio is rare.

Initially, yes, that could happen. However, over time, would the balance not adjust accordingly? Teams are still going to trade their players for other teams picks and vice versa and we'll eventually get back to the normal up and down cycle of teams.

Also - I assume most teams would be competititve every year in this scenario. There shouldn't be a year where a team is actively not trying to make the playoffs.

Look at the NFL for example, no draft lottery and you have teams that are not expected to win a game the entire season. That's ridiculous to me.

I assume you don't watch football because there hasn't been a winless team in 6 years and the only team threatening to go winless this year isn't tanking, they don't even own their own draft pick, yet no one complains because football fans understand those teams need the best prospects to reload and refresh toward their next good team

Assuming most teams would be competitive most years in the wheel scenario literally doesn't and can't make sense, altering the draft wouldn't alter how long it takes to build a competitive team, it just means that the worst teams no longer have a reliable avenue towards reloading their roster, actually EXTENDING the amount of time they will be bad, the wheel would do the opposite of what you think it's goal would be

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

It's going to be embarrassing to be the team that finally loses to them.

Every year in my fantasy leagues there is always that one god awful team that is a easy win against yet they ALWAYS end up beating a higher end team for their first win lol.... I can't even imagine being that team that loses in an actual NHL game to the garbage team.

 

[Divine]

I assume you don't watch football because there hasn't been a winless team in 6 years and the only team threatening to go winless this year isn't tanking, they don't even own their own draft pick, yet no one complains because football fans understand those teams need the best prospects to reload and refresh toward their next good team

Assuming most teams would be competitive most years in the wheel scenario literally doesn't and can't make sense, altering the draft wouldn't alter how long it takes to build a competitive team, it just means that the worst teams no longer have a reliable avenue towards reloading their roster, actually EXTENDING the amount of time they will be bad, the wheel would do the opposite of what you think it's goal would be

I disagree. I think you can be competitive by hitting on later picks also.

If we assume that only the top draft picks are competitive, every 5 years there will be 5 strong teams. It's not that much different than the current state of the NHL.

 

[ducks8]

Did not think a team would surpass the Ducks last season so quickly. Sharks making last year's ducks look competent

 

[weastern bias]

I disagree. I think you can be competitive by hitting on later picks also.

If we assume that only the top draft picks are competitive, every 5 years there will be 5 strong teams. It's not that much different than the current state of the NHL.

It's not an assumption, it's been laid out to you in this thread that no team in over a decade, save for the team that got to extract assets in an unprecedented fashion via a cap-era expansion draft, had top-5 picks on their roster, and 7 of the last 10 had a #1, you've just chosen to ignore that is a fact

 

[Divine]

It's not an assumption, it's been laid out to you in this thread that no team in over a decade, save for the team that got to extract assets in an unprecedented fashion via a cap-era expansion draft, had top-5 picks on their roster, and 7 of the last 10 had a #1, you've just chosen to ignore that is a fact

That makes no sense.

You know most teams in the NHL currently have top picks on their team? Bad and good alike. Of course you can find top picks on good teams - you can equally find top picks on bad teams.

 

[weastern bias]

That makes no sense.

You know most teams in the NHL currently have top picks on their team? Bad and good alike. Of course you can find top picks on good teams - you can equally find top picks on bad teams.

I've made my point, at this point you're moving to goalposts to obfuscate the conversation

 

[Canadiens Ghost]

I remember a few years ago someone in the NBA (I think?) proposed a cycle for the draft lottery. Teams alternate between the 32 picks (adjusted for how many teams there are) every 32 years in a cycle. That way - the only focus on the owners minds would be being as competitive as you can, because there is no benefit in losing or having 20M in cap space on any given season.

That is one of the most stupid proposals I have ever seen. What happens when you expand to 34 teams? And then when you expand again to 36 teams 10 years later? Which teams draft where? I have never seen anyone address this problem logically. The draft wheel just doesn't work.

 

[Divine]

That is one of the most stupid proposals I have ever seen. What happens when you expand to 34 teams? And then when you expand again to 36 teams 10 years later? Which teams draft where? I have never seen anyone address this problem logically. The draft wheel just doesn't work.

The same thing that happens to the current draft when you expand. You either expand the draft more or just distribute the picks among more teams.

The problems that would exist in a 36 team league would exist in the current draft system also. A few teams get the top picks and the rest of the teams have to rely on good scouting, as they currently do, in order to stay competitive.

Here is the summary of the idea:

Best Potential Fixes to NBA Draft Lottery System

Change is on the horizon for the NBA draft lottery, and we have the Philadelphia 76ers to thank. Actually, we owe our gratitude (or rancor, depending on your perspective) not so ...

bleacherreport.com

1. Long before the league sat down to discuss lottery reform in an official capacity, rumors of a more drastic plan—complete with a cool nickname—surfaced.
   Lowe reported on The Wheel in December, 2013:
   

   Grantland obtained a copy of the proposal, which would eliminate the draft lottery and replace it with a system in which each of the 30 teams would pick in a specific first-round draft slot once—and exactly once—every 30 years. Each team would simply cycle through the 30 draft slots, year by year, in a predetermined order designed so that teams pick in different areas of the draft each year.

   That's a major, top-down overhaul of the current system—one that would require all of the complicated deals involving draft picks and future protected selections to cycle out before it could be implemented. Lowe pegged the clearance time at a decade, and it's not hard to see how teams might balk at waiting that long for a plan they can't even be sure will work.
   Plus, like virtually every tweak to the current system, The Wheel makes it harder for bad teams (especially those in small markets who can only build a talent base through the draft) to get better.
   Here's the thing, though: The NBA has a robust revenue-sharing system that funnels money toward those small-market teams, leveling the playing field between big- and small-city clubs to a significant degree. Milwaukee will never be New York, but there's nothing to be done about that.
   The Wheel amounts to controlled randomization, meaning the incentive to lose games that exists now would virtually disappear.
   There's no question teams would find ways to manipulate this new system, but if it's deliberate losing the league hates, this could curb the practice.

It often gets brought up as a viable solution to tanking, I'm surprised if you've never heard about it.



You can see the full proposal here:

» The NBA’s Possible Solution for Tanking: Good-bye to the Lottery, Hello to the Wheel

grantland.com

 

[coooldude]

That is one of the most stupid proposals I have ever seen. What happens when you expand to 34 teams? And then when you expand again to 36 teams 10 years later? Which teams draft where? I have never seen anyone address this problem logically. The draft wheel just doesn't work.

In fact, the "draft wheel" essentially creates complete chaos rather than some sort of "steady state" that this guy is dreaming up with zero evidence. Drafts based on finish order create cycles (which he seems to hate).

Having a reverse order draft (or the weird contortions of the lottery) give teams a chance to rebuild, IF and ONLY IF they do it well. If, instead, we were in a system with total chaos/luck as to how top talent is distributed year from year, you're going to have way more unfairness in the system. Cup winners will get 1st-4th overall generational picks, worst ever teams will spend decades picking in the bottom half of the draft (fine, only 16-17 years until you're back in the top half of the draft, with average careers of 5 years or so). When NHL draft history shows that the bottom half of first rounders are only 50% chance to play, what, 100 games?, then you can't create a "fair" system based on complete randomness in the draft. "You can build a great team without the #1 overall pick" is missing the forest for the trees... most true contender teams build full teams, but they build them AROUND 1-4 top 5 talents.

We're not basketball where one superstar really only needs ~2 other supporting players to be a top 5 team, and only the very top picks ever become superstars and it's very clear who they are going to be. But we're also not baseball, where there's a huge amount of noise in the draft and development years post-draft.

But anyway, this Divine dude is so dug in that he's clearly not going to be convinced otherwise, so I think it's time to let him live his life believing that a silly idea is actually a great idea for reasons he can't prove or argue well.

 

[FiveTacos]

On paper our defense is the worst iced that I can ever remember since watching hockey. Literally not a single player that would be on anything higher than the 3rd pairing on any other team, and several that probably should not even be in the NHL at all.

It's not unlike Anaheim's defense last year if you took out Fowler. There's a lot of teams over the years with much more talent up front than either SJ or Ana who struggled because their blueline sucked. Superstar forwards can wallpaper over some of those issues to a degree, but even then it doesn't tend to work out well.

Okay...what is the COW palace? Sounds like there is a good history story there.

An absolutely delightful dump of an old 1940s arena that at times has hosted all manner of things. Including the NBA, hockey, boxing, and cattle. I went there for an early Sharks game and was pretty sure I could smell the livestock. And by livestock I mean cow poop.

I think the last hockey team there was the defunct SF minor league Bulls that folded midseason? Their mascot costume got sold and ended up with the Sonoma minor league baseball team. He's named Rawhide.

It's still around, I was at the Cow Palace pre COVID for their annual Dickens fair around Xmas. As wonderfully dank as ever.

 

[Chainshot]

This is pretty disgusting to see. They could draft the next McDavid next summer and they would still be at the bottom for years to come.

Unpopular opinion: Tanking is stupid and is ruining the league. You've got entire fanbases now rooting for their teams to lose.

Unpopular opinion - the trade that set the Sharks build back the furthest was the one that tried to keep their playoff window open with the Karlsson acquisition. Plug Stutzle, Norris and Demelo into the current Shark team and it's significantly better and more fun to watch. Perhaps Meier doesn't leave. But they pulled the trigger on it using a pile of futures and this is where they have now gotten.

 

[Scoripo Rising]

They're so bad it's actually good. I love watching this team. I've never seen a team with so little skill not try at all. It will even out a bit but my lord...

 

[Canadiens Ghost]

The same thing that happens to the current draft when you expand. You either expand the draft more or just distribute the picks among more teams.

The problems that would exist in a 36 team league would exist in the current draft system also. A few teams get the top picks and the rest of the teams have to rely on good scouting, as they currently do, in order to stay competitive.

You didn't answer the question. If you expand to 34 teams, let's say Québec and Houston. Where do you insert them in the draft wheel? And say by inserting them a team like Toronto that were slated to draft 1st overall in 2026 are suddenly bumped down 2 years and miss out on the next McDavid because of it, that would create a major shitstorm.
Now add 10 years later Milwaukee and Portland. Where do you insert them? When will they pick 1st or 34th? It just doesn't work. The draft wheel idea is broken and could only be (maybe) feasible if you were guaranteed to remain at 32 teams for the next 32 years. It ain't happenin'.

 

[TheBeard]

Unpopular opinion - the trade that set the Sharks build back the furthest was the one that tried to keep their playoff window open with the Karlsson acquisition. Plug Stutzle, Norris and Demelo into the current Shark team and it's significantly better and more fun to watch. Perhaps Meier doesn't leave. But they pulled the trigger on it using a pile of futures and this is where they have now gotten.

It's weird to me that some people seem to think Grier and the sharks should be punished for actually having the foresight and understanding that their window has closed and they need to look towards the future for any additional success.

Do people want teams to just continually drag it out despite knowing they're no longer contenders?

 

[Divine]

You didn't answer the question. If you expand to 34 teams, let's say Québec and Houston. Where do you insert them in the draft wheel? And say by inserting them a team like Toronto that were slated to draft 1st overall in 2026 are suddenly bumped down 2 years and miss out on the next McDavid because of it, that would create a major shitstorm.
Now add 10 years later Milwaukee and Portland. Where do you insert them? When will they pick 1st or 34th? It just doesn't work. The draft wheel idea is broken and could only be (maybe) feasible if you were guaranteed to remain at 32 teams for the next 32 years. It ain't happenin'.

Like I've said, the idea isn't perfect, but neither is the current draft. The goal should be to improve the system, not that it has to be perfect.

If a new team is added, they can be placed in the middle of the draft order or it can be adjusted accordingly.

This isn't something relatively new, as when Vegas and Seattle were added, they were automatically guaranteed a top pick. Was that 'fair' to teams who were rebuilding? Probably not.

Seattle got to pick second overall before ever playing an NHL game, meanwhile the 30th place Anaheim Ducks picked 3rd.

No system will be perfect, the goal is to optimize it as much as possible.

 

[weastern bias]

Unpopular opinion - the trade that set the Sharks build back the furthest was the one that tried to keep their playoff window open with the Karlsson acquisition. Plug Stutzle, Norris and Demelo into the current Shark team and it's significantly better and more fun to watch. Perhaps Meier doesn't leave. But they pulled the trigger on it using a pile of futures and this is where they have now gotten.

I still maintain that the Karlsson trade wasn't the mistake but the contract extension was

He showed them the player he was in the year they acquired him, an offense only D who would miss a substantial amount of available games and would only produce at a 50-ish point pace in the games he would play, and they made him the highest paid D man in the league an forfeited a conditional pick to do so

The Karlsson contract, along with picking Kane over Pavelski, really sunk the team, but even if they had kept Pavs over extending EK they would be a bubble playoff team at best because Jones, Vlasic, Thornton and Marleau all stopped beinf impact players at that exact same moment, their time was simply up

 

[Umingmak]

At this point, I am genuinely convinced that an AHL team could beat the Sharks.

This is tanking on an absolutely epic level. They should trade Hertl and Couture (once he's healthy). These guys don't deserve to suffer through this.

 

[RayMartyniukTotems]

Grier was not the guy to be the GM! He didn't have the experience and really botched the Meier deal badly!He traded a top 2-3 Forward for 3rd liners and a couple of Defensive prospects...I get he got a couple first rounders but they are an unknown and you have to hit on them...I'd be trading everyone even Couture who I'm sure doesn't want to be part of this Shit-Show...Vlasic if you can...Ferraro can stay and Hertl if he wants to stay...this team couldn't beat the 1971-72 California Golden Seals and they are all like 70-80 years old!

 

[weastern bias]

Like I've said, the idea isn't perfect, but neither is the current draft. The goal should be to improve the system, not that it has to be perfect.

If a new team is added, they can be placed in the middle of the draft order or it can be adjusted accordingly.

This isn't something relatively new, as when Vegas and Seattle were added, they were automatically guaranteed a top pick. Was that 'fair' to teams who were rebuilding? Probably not.

Seattle got to pick second overall before ever playing an NHL game, meanwhile the 30th place Anaheim Ducks picked 3rd.

No system will be perfect, the goal is to optimize it as much as possible.

The only problem with the current draft is that there's a lottery at all

There's no lottery in the NFL and no one complains, they are the healthiest and most successful pro sports league in North America, the NHL should abolish the lotto and be done with it

 

[Divine]

The only problem with the current draft is that there's a lottery at all

There's no lottery in the NFL and no one complains, they are the healthiest and most successful pro sports league in North America, the NHL should abolish the lotto and ve done with it

Sure, if the NHL can also get rid of guaranteed contracts and move to the NFL model, that can work.

The NFL has way more flexibility in terms of altering your team to fit into the salary cap. You can cut players, not guarantee contracts, and even adjust contracts to fit under the salary cap on any given year. It's the league that probably depends on the draft the least.