It makes sense to buy out Skinner if you think it’s worth it for him not to be on the roster anymore.
Maybe he can give us one more decent season with a new head coach to kick him in the pants.
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Maybe he can give us one more decent season with a new head coach to kick him in the pants.
The only significant difference between this year and next year is the trailing seasons. 3 with the buyout now, 2 with the buyout next year. Also, the trailing seasons are 2.44M now instead of 2.0 in a year.
It costs 14.66 M to buy him out this year and 8M next year.
However, he is taking in a 10M salary this year. So its a net savings of roughly 3.33M to buy him out now, cash wise.
If you honestly want a real change for the team, this is probably step 1. Everyone knows him and Ruff will not be a fit. Even mr positive Granato was sick of Skinners shit this year.
do you want more than 10% of your cap space locked up this year in a guy who will likely get demoted immediately and be lucky to hit 20 goals while providing almost no utility elsewhere?
Or do you want to free that up (knowing you have to work around dead cap later) and fill in some spots, especially if you plan to just buy him out next year when for slightly less dead cap
Doug Prishpreed
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Every coach has players on their roster that they wish weren't there. Part of the job is figuring out how to make them useful, even if you'd prefer not to.
I hope Skinner is gone, but don't think it's something Adams is even considering. Pegula would never allow it in the first place.
Beerz
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You just said Adams needs to find his Trocheck/Miller ... and then suggest Strum?
He needs to do better than a Strum for 3C
KeyserSoze81
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Cash savings are 7.333M if they buy him out this summer. Added liquidity appears to be of some importance to Pegula, and this move will likely make the team better while saving money. I wouldn't write off the notion.
So, while there is savings there, it's not savings this year. In fact it costs him 4.667 M more this summer, cash wise.
The Savings are spread out over the final 2 years of the deal.
Also combine that with the fact that (I would hope at least) they would be replacing him in the lineup with a veteran forward.
If Liquidity is an issue, then they won't be buying him out. A buyout and replacement would cost him much more than just hoping he's fine this year.
Doug Prishpreed
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But the assumption is that Buffalo would use up the cap space that the buyout gives us. That means more money out of Pegula's pockets with a buyout compared to not buying him out.
toddkaz
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How many are one dimensional wingers who refuses to listen and play defense and get paid 9 million?
PatLaFontaineASMR
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BUF Players
UPL 4x4.7M
Henri Jokiharju 3x4M / 1x3.3M (ARB)
Peyton Krebs 2x1.77M
Zemgus Girgensons 2x1.8M
Victor Olofsson 1x1M
Popular UFA Targets
Chandler Stephenson 5x5.6M
Elias Lindholm 5x6.75M
Sean Monahan 4x5.3M
Tyler Bertuzzi 4x5.27M
Max Domi 2x3.5M
Jonathan Marchessault 3x6.3M
Patrick Kane 2x6.3M
Dakota Joshua 4x3.25M
Warren Foegele 3x3.9M
Yakov Trenin 3x2.5M
Stefan Noesen 3x3.2M
Teddy Bleuger 2x2.1M
Brandon Duhaime 3x1.8M
Beerz
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The only significant difference between this year and next year is the trailing seasons. 3 with the buyout now, 2 with the buyout next year. Also, the trailing seasons are 2.44M now instead of 2.0 in a year.
It costs 14.66 M to buy him out this year and 8M next year.
However, he is taking in a 10M salary this year. So its a net savings of roughly 3.33M to buy him out now, cash wise.
If you honestly want a real change for the team, this is probably step 1. Everyone knows him and Ruff will not be a fit. Even mr positive Granato was sick of Skinners shit this year.
do you want more than 10% of your cap space locked up this year in a guy who will likely get demoted immediately and be lucky to hit 20 goals while providing almost no utility elsewhere?
Or do you want to free that up (knowing you have to work around dead cap later) and fill in some spots, especially if you plan to just buy him out next year when for slightly less dead cap
(and others)
Thanks for posting the numbers.
You guys are all talking like Skinner is a complete black hole, worst player in the league territory, etc. Completely predictable over reaction. He's been a successful player on multiple teams, playing with multiple different line mates under multiple different coaches. We're only one season away from him being a >PPG legit top line player. He's frustrating, one dimensional, overpaid & needs to be put into certain situations to do well - but at least call it how it is.
Players like Max Afinogenov have found success under Lindy in the past - so i don't know how you or others think there is no chance of them being able to work together successfully before they have even met.
I'd have thought there is no chance of a buyout at this point though. It just doesn't make sense. If it turns into a disaster with him & Lindy - which is possible but not guaranteed - it might make sense to look at the buyout next summer after you KNOW it isn't going to work & the penalty is easier to swallow.
One Joshua, then find a way of trading for Connor Garland.
Mattilaus
Registered User
My argument would be that no season is a success if you haven't given yourself a chance to win a championship. Skinner can get all the individual stats he wants but the purpose of playing in the NHL is to win a championship and if Skinner can't change how he plays to help the team win games then I would stop short of calling anything he does a success. Winners aren't satisfied with great personal seasons unless a chance at a cup follows. Do you think Crosby feels like this season was a success for him? Probably not, because he is a winner and individual stats aren't his goal.
thewookie1
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I’m good with keeping Skinner one more year to see if Ruff can get solid stats out of him. There’s no must have player we need the extra cap for and we’ll likely need it for Quinn and Peterka the next year anyway. I’d trade him with retention but since he’s unlikely to waive its a moot point.
StrompTroller
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Jacob582
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Afinogenov drove Ruff crazy. Max played for himself and not the team. He wanted to play his way and not the coaches way.
Uberpecker
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Wondering if Lindy might take on some of the GM duties, particularly regarding roster building at least inofficially.
Afinogenov has two very successful seasons under Ruff.....at a time where speed was king and he had enough depth he could hide Afinogenov from any defensive responsibility.
Once the crackdown on interference went away, and the team didn't have the same depth, his numbers dropped precipitously and was a routine member of Ruff's doghouse.
Ruff isn't going to employ a style that hides Skinners flaws.
Ruff is good with young players and works with them if they work with him. But what Ruff isn't going to do is tolerate the stubbornness and willing to play only one style from a seasoned vet like Skinner.
And to your point, Skinner is an absolute elite offensive player around the net. From the faceoff dots to the goal line, he can find the empty spaces and can get himself open. The problem is, the other 180 ft of ice he's below average to terrible.
He is one dimensional. When you can get his single dimension going, he's going to be an elite level goal scoring. But if you deploy him poorly or play a system that doesn't suit him, he's going to be worthless. We saw that directly under Krueger. Part of that was Krueger simply being stubborn and dumb. But...it happened again under Granato this last year. Once Peterka was on the top line and Skinner was demoted, his production went straight into the tank.
Ruff isn't going to give Skinner those kind of deployments he needs to succeed, period. He hasn't tolerated vets who won't put in an honest effort defensively, and he will move down to a 3 or 2 line team depending on the situation the team is in.
Doug Prishpreed
Registered User
“Hes been a successful player on multiple teams, with multiple linemates, under multiple coaches.”
This is simply not true in any regard. He’s had flashes of “success” with very few linemates, and sustained success with no one. And by “success,” I mean impressive individual stats on a losing team, which isn’t really success.
And think about it - every coach who Skinner has ever played for has grown to hate him. They all eventually demote him after he refuses to change his game. One of the best coaches in the league, RBA, refused to work with him and shipped him out. That team got exponentially better after he left.
For me it comes down to the question: are we a better team this year using $9 million in cap space on Skinner or are we better if we use the $7.55 million in space we gain with a buyout on say, as examples, Dakota Joshua and Warren Foegele? There is risk either way. I think we are better using the cap savings on new players who address needs that Skinner does not.
I like Skinner. He isn’t the reason we have been missing the playoffs (it’s way bigger than one guy obviously). He could score 30 next year and I would not be surprised at all. There is, though, no team that needs to make the playoffs more desperately than us. Other organizations less desperate than we should be, would buy him out and go get players who better address what is missing.
Nashville and Vancouver took bold steps with buyouts last off-season that allowed them to reshape their teams. It paid off for both.
(also @Mattilaus)
Doesn’t this just prove my point? Those mid '00s teams were the best a lot of us have ever seen. Lindy was coach & Max was arguably even more of a liability than Skinner. His presence didn't stop them from contending.
I'd like to think that Lindy will utilise his players to their strengths. It's premature to completely dismiss Skinner being able to work under Ruff - especially when the only alternative is to do something which hurts the team short to medium term.
He's had six 30+ goal seasons - three for us - playing under two different regimes with two different sets of line mates. That is more than 'flashes of success'.
I'm sure that Lindy will eventually tire of him - but it's also very possible that he initially gets a good season or two out of him before that happens. It tends to be the pattern.
I don't actually have so much of an issue with his defensive play so long as he's scoring. It goes back to utilising him accordingly. The problem has oftem been that we haven't had the defensive players (or system) to compliment or insulate him. Every player doesn't need to have the same role or responsibilities on a team.
You make good points - but i don't see his salary next year as a problem. We can go out & get the players we need while being comfortable in terms of the cap. When JJP/Quinn/Benson/Byram etc extensions kick in.... That's when it will become a problem & when an easier to digest buyout makes more sense.
Beerz
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That's a beautiful narrative you've concocted.
No reason to believe Granato "hated" Skinner.. no reason to believe Housley hated Skinner. The Carolina Hurricanes are notorious for shipping out their players before they get big contracts. The team got "exponentially" better because they were a horrible TEAM and the new core was just coming into their own with Aho, Slavin, Svech.
Skinner is one of the top goal scorers in his era... mildly successful is such a bad take. The idea that one player is the determining factor whether a team is good or bad is another horrible take.
The problem is that Skinner only works in a specific set of circumstances. One of the things I praised Granato for was unlocking Skinner and using the players he had to make us not be a basement dweller team.
The problem is, there is a real ceiling to the success you can have with Skinner. The sacrifices you make to unlock him hurt your team in other ways. You have to have a line that can create room for him or a line mate that is good enough to gobble all the defensive attention. If you don’t do that….hes a complete waste of space. He isn’t good enough to drive his own line. On a secondary offensive line, there typically isn’t enough room for him to operate. And he has been known to mail it in if he doesn’t like his circumstances
The style ruff is going to play and the accountability he has talked about simply isn’t going to mesh with Skinner.
This is a predictable bad situation we can resolve now just with money. Dead cap sucks but it’s something we can plan around.
Beerz
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You are right... Skinner can only operate in a certain set of circumstances... that is why since he isn't going to be traded or bought out I am hoping Ruff at least starts out with Skinner Thompson Tuch in hopes that they can reignite the previous years magic. Even tho Peterka looked fantastic up on that line and has seemingly passed Skinner I think Peterka can succeed with Cozens and Quinn.
Throwing Skinner on 3rd like with Krebs or whoever the hell else we get is probably going to turn that line into mush.
Skinner - Thompson - Tuch
Quinn - Cozens - Peterka
Benson - Krebs - Greenway
???? - ???? - ????
I think some will depend on how Benson can handle his 2nd year. I'd like to think Skinner can keep his 1st line role, but if not he or Benson may flip-flop on 3rd line duty. Being down a quality FW probably means that no matter who's playing well, the 3rd line will yet again be the graveyard shift for guys that don't deserve over 10 mins TOI. That's after hoping KA can cobble together a decent 4th line. The whole group is weak, and thin as hell when injuries hit.
Likewise, your points are good and valid.
I think there are meaningful changes that can be made on the edges of the roster this off-season, without a Skinner buyout. For anything to be done that goes deeper than the edges though, someone will need to go.
I think they will justify keeping Skinner by arguing, with legitimacy, that he can still produce offensively and that it is short-sighted to create the $4.44, $6.44 and then 3 x $2.444 cap hits that will extend beyond this season.
I just think the value of a buyout this year ($7.44 million that can be used to address roster needs), relative to the critical nature of this coming season, out weighs the negative of the buyout cost over the next 5 seasons (particularly when you consider that if you don't buyout Skinner now, then next year the buyout cost is almost identical, less one year of $2.44 million, without there being the benefit of a year with a $7.55 million savings).
Another example of what we could get with $7.55 million this year: Mangiapane at full price to take Skinner's place in the middle six and Iaffalo with 50% retention for the 4th line; both UFA's after this year so would not prevent Quinn/Peterka/Byram extensions.
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