The Pegula ownership has a history of overshooting the market for players they want
The infamous Ville Leino contract to start. Ehrhoff as well.
In more recent history, they overpaid in dollars, term, and a full NMC to keep Skinner. They overpaid for Hall. And they overpaid Girgensons twice to keep him here, though on a much smaller scale.
Do I think that Stamkos has any interest in signing in Buffalo? No. For a lot of reasons as you mentioned. But, if he were to sign here, it'd likely be because we offered a top of market contract.
But....I'd rate the chances of Stamkos as less than 1%, so its probably not a discussion worth happening.