Can you show me some examples or numbers of maybe put them on an excel spreadsheet and show me how trading those picks for early 20 year old has a lower chance to becoming a top 6 F/Top 4 D?
This cannot be done. If this data is available, it certainly isn't public.
There are many problems with your analysis Canucks1096. It's rife with errors. Here are my explanations as to why:
- You've talked about insufficient/sufficient sample sizes, and then you cite 1 draft's worth of data. That is at once hypocritical, and it's also anecdotal. That sample is nowhere near large enough.
- You haven't defined your criteria for "reclamation".
- You haven't defined your criteria for top6/top4.
- Why doesn't your hypothesis extend to the 1st round? If you want to claim that reclamation players have the same chance at converting in either context, why ignore the best quality of one context and include the entire quality of another context?
- You define 2nd liners as "impact players". I think you should just stick to top6/top4.
- Are you taking the full array of picks squandered to produce a top6/top4 player with either strategy? For instance, are you taking Benning's full allotment of trades to produce Baertschi, or just the 2nd rounder used to produce Baertschi?
- If you are taking the array of picks, then how do you quantify that same array in regards to the draft?
- Not being in the NHL at present is not a marker on player quality re: Baertschi vs. Gaudette.
- What are your thoughts on pick value vs. reclamation players? Can you get a 2nd++ for Baertschi (the total pick array to produce him) right now? If so, explain your rationale.
- You chastise posters for using opinions and generalizations to prove their arguments without realizing that you are doing this at every turn yourself. For proof, I will outline every generalization you use in your next post -- just as a kind of marker so that you can see what you are doing, and hopefully, adjust.