The Playoff Push, Tanking and Scoreboard Watching Thread

[execwrite1]

Color me nervous. Still expect to make the playoffs, but will be glad when it's clinched.

I don't mind backing in if Calgary loses too many of their games. Friday nite, rooting for Wild (I think).

 

[Stealth JD]

At this point it would appear of there being very little chance of finishing ahead of Minnesota, who has a game in hand and owns the tie-breaker. If the Blues do hold off Calgary they’re all but assured of facing Winnipeg in Round One. If they get Parayko and Holloway back, they’ve got a puncher’s chance…but Winnipeg will be rightfully favored in any scenario.

Now we just need to pick up three points over the final two games, which may be tough, with Utah and Seattle looking to play the role of spoilers.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

am	Magic Number to clinch Playoffs	Current Points	Games Remaining	Possible Points	RW	ROW	Common Games
Blues	4 (maybe 3)	93	2	97	31	39	vs U
Wild	3	93	3	99	34	40	vs C, vs V
Flames	.	88	4	96	28	33	vs W
Canucks	Out	85	4	93	27	33	vs W
Utah	Out	84	4	92	28	35	vs B

One more regulation win for the Blues (or lack if RE for Calgary) gives them the tiebreaker on Calgary, which secures the lower Magic Number (currently that’s 3). Otherwise the magic number right now is 4.

I’d put Minnesota higher than St Louis, but it’s a pain to edit the table on my phone.

 

[Beninnola]

I received a few cheap shot posts from some of you after the loss to the Jets for being worried about this team losing its gas.

How's everyone feeling now that we lost to an injured Edmonton team?

Making the playoffs is getting harder and harder.

I’m probably on an island; I really would enjoy a playoff series but the reality is a lot of our core is below the ages where they will
be overwhelmingly effective - and the competitive clubs are mostly the opposite - they’re losing/avoiding younger guys and stuffing the depth chart with guys in positions to compete at the highest level.

You don’t often see teams go deep with a bunch of younger players in key roles. Some hockey guys refer to it as a big team. Our big team is growing and 2-3 years out. Since some of our guys are pretty young we’re throwing our 4th line out with a few minutes to go in close games; when our group grows we’ll be throwing out a top 9 line of higher caliber players in these moments and resting the 4th line. On the positive side; we’ve mortgaged close to nothing and we’ve got a defense set to be fairly stable for a few years as they grow.

My bracket, if we make it, will have us win a cup because I’m a degenerate/biased homer, but in reality we’re in a building phase. I’ll always believe any team that makes it in can win, but I don’t have that expectation.

I’m thrilled at what the team is building in Neighbors, Bolduc, Holloway then all the rookies/prospects. Thomas isn’t 26 yet. It’s really Schenn, Buch, then a bunch of kids and Sunny. It’s fun to watch when the team has enough scoring to threaten other teams with a few different lines. It wasn’t so fun earlier in the season when we were figuring that out. It’s unfortunate we’re so fragile that losing the diversity of scoring has a large impact and it’s unfortunate we’re experiencing an injury to maybe our 2nd mvp of the season (imma give Thomas the award - Holloway a close second or maybe Fowler). I’m believing the things we figured out this year will be magnified next year as the group gets stronger.

We can miss the playoffs and…I obviously wouldn’t want that, but I’m satisfied with where we are going. It was and will continue to be an uphill battle for our group this year. Imma enjoy the rest of the ride no matter where it goes.

I don’t think I’d suggest anybody lose their shit over a bad outcome. Lots of good hockey to come. Lots.

 

[LogosBlue]

Flames have an uphill battle needing to essentially win out and facing the Wild, Knights and Kings among their 4 remaining games. I've watched several games of theirs over the last couple weeks and they are expending the same energy as the Blues trying to get in. I'm sure they are gassed too. Just don't see them overcoming these obstacles to make the playoffs. Heck, they just dropped a game against the Ducks for Pete's sake. Not worried, we just need to get points in these last two games. 19 seconds away from snagging a point last night. What a shame.

 

[WeWentBlues]

Flames have an uphill battle needing to essentially win out and facing the Wild, Knights and Kings among their 4 remaining games. I've watched several games of theirs over the last couple weeks and they are expending the same energy as the Blues trying to get in. I'm sure they are gassed too. Just don't see them overcoming these obstacles to make the playoffs. Heck, they just dropped a game against the Ducks for Pete's sake. Not worried, we just need to get points in these last two games. 19 seconds away from snagging a point last night. What a shame.

I was watching the 3rd period of that game. Ducks tied it late after being down 3-1 in the 3rd and then won in OT so only fitting that the Blues would lose in an equally heartbreaking fashion.

 

[MissouriMook]

Given that we’ve probably lost the opportunity to get the WC1 at this point, I’m rooting for the Wild tonight. A regulation loss by the Flames means we only need one point in our last two games to get in. Bring on the Jets.

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

I think it's highly unlikely the Flames win out with games against a revitalized Minnesota team, Vegas, and L.A. still on the schedule. But I'd rather not even have to worry about it.

Just win baby! I'm more concerned that we're going to get railroaded in Round 1 though with the way we've looked the past 5 games.

 

[Brian39]

I was watching the 3rd period of that game. Ducks tied it late after being down 3-1 in the 3rd and then won in OT so only fitting that the Blues would lose in an equally heartbreaking fashion

I'd say that the Flames loss was in more heartbreaking fashion. Leading going into the 3rd and then going up 3-1 with less than 5 minutes left in a game against the Ducks that had to be penciled in as a must-win. Entering that game, they had to gain either 7 standings points or 6 standing points and gain 4 regulation wins to jump the playoff cut line with just 5 games left to play. That's a very tall order. Then they allowed 2 goals in 8 seconds with less than 4 minutes left on the clock to turn a should-be-locked-in regulation win into an eventual OT loss. That point made it so they only need to gain 6 standings points (or 5 points while also winning all 4 of their remaining games in regulation while we don't get a regulation win).

They have won just 8 regulation games in the 23 games they've played since the 4 Nations break. Getting a point was a pretty small silver lining given how badly they needed to hold on for a regulation win to keep the tiebreaker close. Gaining just a point on us each night is simply not good enough for them.

Their playoff odds went down more than ours did last night and I would absolutely say that their late-game collapse was more egregious than ours was.

Again, our loss was also heartbreaking, but Calgary's was worse IMO.

 

[bleedblue1223]

In an absolute worst case scenario where we don't make the playoffs, I feel a hell of a lot better about our future and how this season went than the previous 2 when we worsened our draft position, but it wasn't driven by anything to make you feel better about the future. We don't have random old guys and journeymen going on heaters that drove our success.

If we do run out of gas, I'm fine with it because it was driven by Holloway becoming a high impact player, Thomas finding another level in his game, Bolduc taking his next steps, Fowler adding an extra element to the d core, etc. If Holloway and Parayko never got hurt, maybe they didn't lose gas. So, if we do completely run out of gas and we pick 16th, I'm still pretty happy with how it played out.

 

[ds774622]

Friday, MIN @ CGY:

 

[Brian39]

I think it's highly unlikely the Flames win out with games against a revitalized Minnesota team, Vegas, and L.A. still on the schedule. But I'd rather not even have to worry about it.

Just win baby! I'm more concerned that we're going to get railroaded in Round 1 though with the way we've looked the past 5 games.

I'm not too concerned about the last 5 games being all that predictive of how we will look in the playoffs.

We look tired and one massive benefit of teams having games on hand over us is that we have a lot of rest days before playoffs. 2 days off, a game, 2 days off, a game, and then 3 days off before the first possible playoff game. All told, that's 2 games in the remaining 9 days before the playoffs start next Saturday. And while the 1st round opponent would likely have rested some guys in a game or two, they all have either 4 or 5 games left on their regular season schedule so that rest won't give them too many 'extra' days off.

And while we don't have confirmation, Parayko's been skating for a good chunk of time now, his timeline was to return for playoffs, and the team announced that he might get into a game in the regular season. The D has done a very, very admirable job holding down the fort without him, but I think we can all agree that Parayko as the #1 RHD is a substantial upgrade to Faulk (and occasionally Leddy) playing that role.

And not for nothing, but the team did beat a damn good Avs team in regulation during that past 5 game stretch and we beat them twice in regulation if you expand the sample to the last 6 games. Their starter was in net both games. It's not like we're on a 1-4-1 slide the last couple weeks. We went 1-1 in closely contested, even-all-night games against the Avs/Oilers, jumped out to a big 4-0 lead and then played protect mode to beat the Avs, and we got badly outplayed (but vaguely hung around with good goaltending) in a loss to the Jets. The overall play absolutely wasn't on par with the previous few weeks, but 2-2 against top 10 teams while eeking out wins vs 2 bad teams for a 4-2 record isn't exactly a clear indictment that the team can't compete in an opening playoff round.

 

[tomin]

With this season coming to a close, assuming we make the playoffcs, we will be trading Hollaway for Parayko in the post season.

I do not expect Hollaway to be back for any playoff games.

If we secure a spot and avoid falling off a cliff these last two games the first round will be, exciting, taxing, and good for our young future core.

LGB - the second half of this season has been reassuring for our immediate future.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Im 100% cool with shutting Holloway down for the playoffs if he isn't at least 85%. His long term health isn't worth risking for 1 playoff round. Get him healthy and ready for next season

 

[ds774622]

Despite how tired the team may look, I'm not concerned about that carrying over into a potential Round 1, Game 1 (assuming we get that WC2 spot). There's going to be a break before the playoffs start to rest up.

Friedman has previously speculated that the playoff schedule will start on Saturday the 19th. When the schedule starts on the weekend, the NHL typically staggers the starts for the East Saturday/Sunday, and the West Sunday/Monday. Weekday Game 1's typically span the same two days for both conferences.

Assuming the West gets Sunday/Monday starts, LAK would probably lock into that Monday slot given that they end their season on 4/17. All the other West teams end on 4/16 except STL and MIN (4/15), and COL (4/13). COL and DAL would likely take the Sunday Central spot since COL has been off for so long. So WPG-WC2 gets Monday. That's a lot of days off for STL until Game 1.

 

[TruBlueFan1970]

Our magic number is 3 and we have games against Seattle and Utah coming (who are already eliminated and might like a better position at the draft) while Calgary still has to play the Wild, Vegas, the Sharks and the Kings. Can Calgary still catch us? Sure... is it likely? Not really.

I think our best chance is to have a healthier Minny team beat them in regulation tomorrow night. They want to finish ahead of the Blues and a reg win would put them in great shape on that front. Then we just need 1 point in our final two games.

 

[Beauterham]

I think our best chance is to have a healthier Minny team beat them in regulation tomorrow night. They want to finish ahead of the Blues and a reg win would put them in great shape on that front. Then we just need 1 point in our final two games.

It would be the easiest way to a playoff spot, but to be honest, it shouldn't have to matter who wins, as I prefer we win our own two games. I'm perfectly fine if CGY wins so we have a chance to pass the Wild.

Some people mentioned we seem gassed, which could very well be true, but have you seen Calgary lately? Talking about a team on their last legs... They had a lot of games heading into overtime lately and will now have to play 4 games in a very short timespan against difficult opponents (not counting the Sharks). If CGY wants to have a shot at the playoffs, they probably need to win ALL 4 games (or 3 if STL loses both games against UTAH and SEA), I'm not a betting man, but I definitely wouldn't put any money on it if I were them.

 

[GoldenSeal]

Until Holloway returns, our fate is in the hands of others.

 

[Xerloris]

I’m probably on an island; I really would enjoy a playoff series but the reality is a lot of our core is below the ages where they will
be overwhelmingly effective - and the competitive clubs are mostly the opposite - they’re losing/avoiding younger guys and stuffing the depth chart with guys in positions to compete at the highest level.

You don’t often see teams go deep with a bunch of younger players in key roles. Some hockey guys refer to it as a big team. Our big team is growing and 2-3 years out. Since some of our guys are pretty young we’re throwing our 4th line out with a few minutes to go in close games; when our group grows we’ll be throwing out a top 9 line of higher caliber players in these moments and resting the 4th line. On the positive side; we’ve mortgaged close to nothing and we’ve got a defense set to be fairly stable for a few years as they grow.

My bracket, if we make it, will have us win a cup because I’m a degenerate/biased homer, but in reality we’re in a building phase. I’ll always believe any team that makes it in can win, but I don’t have that expectation.

I’m thrilled at what the team is building in Neighbors, Bolduc, Holloway then all the rookies/prospects. Thomas isn’t 26 yet. It’s really Schenn, Buch, then a bunch of kids and Sunny. It’s fun to watch when the team has enough scoring to threaten other teams with a few different lines. It wasn’t so fun earlier in the season when we were figuring that out. It’s unfortunate we’re so fragile that losing the diversity of scoring has a large impact and it’s unfortunate we’re experiencing an injury to maybe our 2nd mvp of the season (imma give Thomas the award - Holloway a close second or maybe Fowler). I’m believing the things we figured out this year will be magnified next year as the group gets stronger.

We can miss the playoffs and…I obviously wouldn’t want that, but I’m satisfied with where we are going. It was and will continue to be an uphill battle for our group this year. Imma enjoy the rest of the ride no matter where it goes.

I don’t think I’d suggest anybody lose their shit over a bad outcome. Lots of good hockey to come. Lots.

It's not like we should expect a deep playoff run but our young core getting the experience of playing important and desperate hockey is just as important as any other type of development.

 

[Louie the Blue]

Until Holloway returns, our fate is in the hands of others.

That is just tangibly not true at all.

 

[GoldenSeal]

That is just tangibly not true at all.

Folks keep questioning my logic while we watch it slowly turn to fact. Stop doing that.

Two game losing streak and the Flames are coming hard. If Holloway doesn't return quick and we don't get help from other teams, we will end up exactly where I predicted all through the year - barelyissing the playoffs.

Folks with your logic on paper need to realize that the logic only works IF THE BLUES WIN. Flames games in hand might be THE nail if we can't get rolling and win out.

 

[WeWentBlues]

Folks keep questioning my logic while we watch it slowly turn to fact. Stop doing that.

Two game losing streak and the Flames are coming hard. If Holloway doesn't return quick and we don't get help from other teams, we will end up exactly where I predicted all through the year - barelyissing the playoffs.

Folks with your logic on paper need to realize that the logic only works IF THE BLUES WIN. Flames games in hand might be THE nail if we can't get rolling and win out.

If we cant beat Seattle and Utah with our season on the line, maybe we don't deserve to get in playoffs anyways. That's the new perspective I'm taking.

 

[Thallis]

Folks keep questioning my logic while we watch it slowly turn to fact. Stop doing that.

Two game losing streak and the Flames are coming hard. If Holloway doesn't return quick and we don't get help from other teams, we will end up exactly where I predicted all through the year - barelyissing the playoffs.

Folks with your logic on paper need to realize that the logic only works IF THE BLUES WIN. Flames games in hand might be THE nail if we can't get rolling and win out.

"In the hands of others" means the team doesn't have the agency to win themselves and make it on their own. It's entirely possible the Blues lose the next two and miss, but winning at least one of those games are within their own hands.

 

[GoldenSeal]

If we cant beat Seattle and Utah with our season on the line, maybe we don't deserve to get in playoffs anyways. That's the new perspective I'm taking.

And I'm ok with that. The team showed a lot and showed what we need to take the next step, nothing but proud of them.

I just won't buy into this fantasy that things are guaranteed or set in stone because it ain't.

 

[GoldenSeal]

"In the hands of others" means the team doesn't have the agency to win themselves and make it on their own. It's entirely possible the Blues lose the next two and miss, but winning at least one of those games are within their own hands.

EXACTLY. But let me expand:

The definition I will use for Agency, from the dictionary: action or intervention, especially such as to produce a particular effect.

The Blues have TWO games at 93 Points. The Flames have FOUR at 88. Those two games in hand they have put them at 92 points with two games to play.

Yes, it is THAT Close.

This why I am crowing loudly about the situation since before the Jets game. You don't rest netminders or do stupid shit, you go in all-hands on deck til you clinch THEN rest your folks, if you can. For those who think this is stupid and you don't just run your Starter that many games, how many games does your starter run to win the Cup? If the situation requires it, you leave NOTHING to chance and do it.

Now back to 'Agency'. This team because their GP is half of Calgary's and is on a losing streak may not have the agency to win on their own. They will need another team to outright beat Calgary if we lose the next two games, which is becoming a real possibility if, again, Holloway doesn't magically return.

This is negativity or doomerism, it is what it is. There is HOPE that we can win those games and HOPE that other teams will help stop the Flames, but when you're living more and more on hope, I think THAT and these other factors satisfy the definition of lacking 'Agency'.

As for the Flames, while they are a team running on fumes, they are pulling from a place deep inside just to stay in their games and earn the loser points (now at a staggering 14). Do NOT underestimate them.

These last two games we need to beware the power of the Spoiler Teams. Do not take them lightly, destroy them.