The Playoff Push, Tanking and Scoreboard Watching Thread

[GoldenSeal]

was a bit of an extreme reaction given the scenario. I think saying the loss last night might be the nail in the coffin when we are guaranteed in the playoffs with 2 wins, extremely likely in with 1 win and still more likely than not with 0 wins was a bit doomery, but I wasn't trying to insult or be extreme lol

It's not out of the question for us to end the season on a losing streak. Folks assume we'll either win out and beat the Oilers tomorrow and I count and leave nothing to chance or at the mercy of others if it can be helped. That's not being doomish or extreme, it's being pragmatic.

Hell, I'm the guy who said all through the season that it's our destiny this year to barely miss the playoffs and my greatest doomish fear right now? Being right.

 

[GoldenSeal]

One day, none of the current Blues players will be Blues players.

And the wheel is broken at the cistern...

 

[WATTAGE4451]

If I’m understanding the tiebreaker correctly, Vancouver can no longer finish ahead of us. They can tie us in points, tie us in RW, but can’t catch us in ROW. Not a “clinch” per se but seems relevant.

Correct. Canucks cant pass us. And minny has magic number of 2 points over canucks.

 

[WATTAGE4451]

It's not out of the question for us to end the season on a losing streak. Folks assume we'll either win out and beat the Oilers tomorrow and I count and leave nothing to chance or at the mercy of others if it can be helped. That's not being doomish or extreme, it's being pragmatic.

Hell, I'm the guy who said all through the season that it's our destiny this year to barely miss the playoffs and my greatest doomish fear right now? Being right.

I mean, its also possible we could have an 0-82 season next year. Its mathmatically possible.

Now us missing the playoffs is slightly more more probable than that, but to suddenly say that the hottest team in the league which has a lead and is generally favored in all its games has been hit nail in coffin because they lost 1 game is absolutely extreme pessimism.

Statistical models account for all the playoff chances. Heres one right here on moneypuck. NHL Playoff Odds -MoneyPuck 2025 Playoff & Cup Odds

It gives us a 96.4% chance of makjng the playoffs. Other models are similar. Yesnthat means its mathematically possiblemwith 3.6% chance if missing. But talking anout final nail in our coffin when we have 96.4% chance absolutely is doomerism and not being pragmatic. Especially coming off one of the best runs we had in franchise history. Theres a difference in saying its too early to celebrate and the extreme posts you had of decrying our downfall

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

I mean, its also possible we could have an 0-82 season next year. Its mathmatically possible.

Now us missing the playoffs is slightly more more probable than that, but to suddenly say that the hottest team in the league which has a lead and is generally favored in all its games has been hit nail in coffin because they lost 1 game is absolutely extreme pessimism.

Statistical models account for all the playoff chances. Heres one right here on moneypuck. NHL Playoff Odds -MoneyPuck 2025 Playoff & Cup Odds

It gives us a 96.4% chance of makjng the playoffs. Other models are similar. Yesnthat means its mathematically possiblemwith 3.6% chance if missing. But talking anout final nail in our coffin when we have 96.4% chance absolutely is doomerism and not being pragmatic. Especially coming off one of the best runs we had in franchise history. Theres a difference in saying its too early to celebrate and the extreme posts you had of decrying our downfall

An “extreme” post would be calling a fatwah on the cities of Minneapolis and Calgary, otherwise it’s just somebody being passionate about sports in a way you don’t agree with.

It’s a super tight wildcard race, a lot of things can happen. We were never going to win out on the season, but putting together an 11-game win streak was miraculous in of itself. We’ve done all we can up to this point, and imo the wear and tear are starting to show. We’re gonna have to dig deep through the final stretch here. Every point still matters. Gotta play until the whistle so to speak.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

An “extreme” post would be calling a fatwah on the cities of Minneapolis and Calgary, otherwise it’s just somebody being passionate about sports in a way you don’t agree with.

It’s a super tight wildcard race, a lot of things can happen. We were never going to win out on the season, but putting together an 11-game win streak was miraculous in of itself. We’ve done all we can up to this point, and imo the wear and tear are starting to show. We’re gonna have to dig deep through the final stretch here. Every point still matters. Gotta play until the whistle so to speak.

TWELVE!

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

TWELVE!

Shit

 

[ds774622]

Nothing wrong with planning for the worst-case, doomsday scenario. It's a great skill, actually. But it's odd to not want it to be labelled as doomerism like there's fault in it.

I posted a probability analysis last week on how unlikely it is for CGY to catch us. Still holds true even after going 1-1 since Saturday.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

From the Blues point of view, another way to look at it is:
There are 16 points available between Calgary and St Louis remaining. For Calgary to get in ver St Louis, they need St Louis to miss or Calgary to gain 13 or maybe 12 of those points (depending on the tiebreaker which could still go either way) in their favor - St Louis losses or Calgary gains them.

St Louis needs 4 of 16 (maybe 5) to go our way. It’s pretty easy for Calgary to win out and still not have a chance if the Bkues have average results. St Louis could lose out and still have a good chance to get in if Calgary has average results.

So it’s not really that close, but it’s not mathematically impossible yet. We just had a night where it could have become final (a 4 point swing was possible).

Calgary has almost no margin for error and STILL would need the Blues to slump to sneak past them.

 

[Brian39]

Games Played is our killer. Everyone other than us has games in hand and our schedule is going to be more difficult than others.

We got 3 Games left, so our best shot is 6 points @ 93 = 99 Points
Calgary has 5 Games left (2 in hand) @ 87 = 97 Points (And I expect them to win out the rest of their schedule)
Minny has 4 games left (1 in hand) @ 91 = 99 Points

This is why I was pissed that we played Binny last night over Hofer. We do NOT have a comfortable lead and are playing for our lives, so this resting him bullshit so he can be fresh for the playoffs, is absolutely stupid. There is NO room for error whatsoever. The loss last night might be the nail in the coffin. We can not lose a game and if we want the playoffs, it has to be all hands-on deck every night. Every game from hereonin should be looked at and approached as a playoff game. Because that's what it is going to take to get there.

Our sole saving grace is Minny, Vancouver and Calgary are playing one another in the last few games. If we make the playoffs and lose games, it'll be because of this.

The Oilers /look/ banged up but they're a team on a mission. We need to be the same.

I wouldn't describe your post as 'doomerism' and I get the pragmatism.

But I do think that your reaction about the goalie decision and the relative importance of the Winnipeg game is an overreaction. Starting Hofer was not just to rest Binner for playoffs. Both goalies have been playing very well down the stretch and keeping Binner fresh gives him a better chance of bringing his A game in each of the remaining regular season games that he plays down the stretch. Additionally, while Binner is the #1 and will be 'the guy' in the playoffs, Hofer is from Winnipeg and has been fantastic against them in his young career (2-2-1 with a .929 SV%). Binner has been sub-.900 in each of the 3 times he's played Winnipeg in the last 2 seasons. These small samples don't concern me long term, but I think that there is a very real argument that Hofer vs Winnipeg Monday increased the team's chances of maximizing points over the last 4 games compared to going with Binner.

One of the things that fueled our incredible record since 4 Nations has been excellent goaltending and one of the reasons it has been excellent is because they have been sharing the load and keeping each other fresh. Starts are 13-10 in favor of Binner since 4 Nations and we haven't hid Hofer from the good teams. The split was 7-5 during the 12 game win streak and there was only one instance where Binner started 2 games in a row. Binner's best play this season has come when the coaches have eased his workload and increased Hofer's.

The answer to the question 'how do I give our team the best chance to get great goaltending in each of the next 4 games' is not always 'play your #1 every game.'

I also think that entering this week, Winnipeg was the least crucial of our remaining 4 games. It was certainly the one where we had the lowest expected points capture. We will have to lose at least 1, and very likely 2+ of these last 3 games to miss the playoffs and all 3 games are against opponents that are significantly 'easier' matchups than Winnipeg in Winnipeg (whose 29-6-4 home record is just behind LA/Carolina as best home record in the league). If we stumble and miss the playoffs, losing that one won't be the nail in the coffin. Losing to a massively depleted Oilers team would be a much bigger deal. So would losing to the Kraken in their 81st game of the year when they have been mathematically eliminated. So would losing to Utah in their 82nd game of the year when they are on the tail end of a road back-to-back that is also their 3rd road game in 4 days.

 

[WATTAGE4451]

I wouldn't describe your post as 'doomerism' and I get the pragmatism.

But I do think that your reaction about the goalie decision and the relative importance of the Winnipeg game is an overreaction. Starting Hofer was not just to rest Binner for playoffs. Both goalies have been playing very well down the stretch and keeping Binner fresh gives him a better chance of bringing his A game in each of the remaining regular season games that he plays down the stretch. Additionally, while Binner is the #1 and will be 'the guy' in the playoffs, Hofer is from Winnipeg and has been fantastic against them in his young career (2-2-1 with a .929 SV%). Binner has been sub-.900 in each of the 3 times he's played Winnipeg in the last 2 seasons. These small samples don't concern me long term, but I think that there is a very real argument that Hofer vs Winnipeg Monday increased the team's chances of maximizing points over the last 4 games compared to going with Binner.

One of the things that fueled our incredible record since 4 Nations has been excellent goaltending and one of the reasons it has been excellent is because they have been sharing the load and keeping each other fresh. Starts are 13-10 in favor of Binner since 4 Nations and we haven't hid Hofer from the good teams. The split was 7-5 during the 12 game win streak and there was only one instance where Binner started 2 games in a row. Binner's best play this season has come when the coaches have eased his workload and increased Hofer's.

The answer to the question 'how do I give our team the best chance to get great goaltending in each of the next 4 games' is not always 'play your #1 every game.'

I also think that entering this week, Winnipeg was the least crucial of our remaining 4 games. It was certainly the one where we had the lowest expected points capture. We will have to lose at least 1, and very likely 2+ of these last 3 games to miss the playoffs and all 3 games are against opponents that are significantly 'easier' matchups than Winnipeg in Winnipeg (whose 29-6-4 home record is just behind LA/Carolina as best home record in the league). If we stumble and miss the playoffs, losing that one won't be the nail in the coffin. Losing to a massively depleted Oilers team would be a much bigger deal. So would losing to the Kraken in their 81st game of the year when they have been mathematically eliminated. So would losing to Utah in their 82nd game of the year when they are on the tail end of a road back-to-back that is also their 3rd road game in 4 days.

Exactly. Very good post. Likewise, jake allen always played better whej he was in tandem. Whenever the blues tried making him a workhirse, he played worse. In the first year binny was starter to begin the year, he started hot, then had a mid year rough stretch until we started subbing allen in for some games to give him more rest. In the year that husso had that run. Binny started hot bht we workhorsed him, his play slipped andnhusso took over- which caused binnington to rebound and play well down stretch and then take net back from husso in playoffs.

Playing your starter every game actually makes your starter a worse goalie and eventually worse than your backup. Its a heavy load in the nhl these days now that goalies transitioned to butterfly technique. When goalies were workhorses back in the day, that was when more pfnthem played a standup style that was less hard on the knees hips and body.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

You could argue that Hofer has played better than Binnington lately, or not much difference between them. You could also argue that Binnington has played this well BECAUSE Hofer has taken a bigger load allowing Jordan to be fresher.

 

[TruBlueFan1970]

This is such an exciting and interesting race in the West. The East is all but over except for maybe a couple seeding changes. For example:

- Blues are close but still not mathematically sealed
- Blues still in it for WC1 or WC2
- Minny in same boat as Blues on both accounts
- Minny could also fall out completely (see crazy Oilers scenario below)
- CGY 6-2-2 in their last ten and keeping on the pressure. They could still end up as WC1 or WC2
- The crazy one. With all their injuries, CGY can still mathematically catch the Oilers for the 3 seed in the Pacific. Oilers have 93 points like the Blues and are skidding.
- If CGY catches them, it’s means the Oilers faltered in their last 5 and could mathematically fall below the Blues and Minny.

Tonight’s Blues and CGY games could really change the complexion of this race. If they both win in regulation, the Oilers fans might go into full freakout mode. They do have SJ twice, but they also have VGK and LA. Both those teams would be going all out if they think there was a chance to eliminate the Oilers or push them to the Central as a wildcard.

Love the playoff race and all the subplots. Gonna be an awesome week to finish this one out. LGB!!!!!

 

[WATTAGE4451]

This is such an exciting and interesting race in the West. The East is all but over except for maybe a couple seeding changes. For example:

- Blues are close but still not mathematically sealed
- Blues still in it for WC1 or WC2
- Minny in same boat as Blues on both accounts
- Minny could also fall out completely (see crazy Oilers scenario below)
- CGY 6-2-2 in their last ten and keeping on the pressure. They could still end up as WC1 or WC2
- The crazy one. With all their injuries, CGY can still mathematically catch the Oilers for the 3 seed in the Pacific. Oilers have 93 points like the Blues and are skidding.
- If CGY catches them, it’s means the Oilers faltered in their last 5 and could mathematically fall below the Blues and Minny.

Tonight’s Blues and CGY games could really change the complexion of this race. If they both win in regulation, the Oilers fans might go into full freakout mode. They do have SJ twice, but they also have VGK and LA. Both those teams would be going all out if they think there was a chance to eliminate the Oilers or push them to the Central as a wildcard.

Love the playoff race and all the subplots. Gonna be an awesome week to finish this one out. LGB!!!!!

If it comes down to the lastvgame for the oilers, id imagine both mcdavid and draisaitl would come back for that final game vs san jose to ensure they dont blow it.

 

[WATTAGE4451]

Evidently ryan nugent hopkins is doubtful to play tonight now and oilers will play the blues with only 19 players and 17 skaters.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

Evidently ryan nugent hopkins is doubtful to play tonight now and oilers will play the blues with only 19 players and 17 skaters.

Trap game

 

[BlueOil]

 

[GoldenSeal]

I mean, its also possible we could have an 0-82 season next year. Its mathmatically possible.

Now us missing the playoffs is slightly more more probable than that, but to suddenly say that the hottest team in the league which has a lead and is generally favored in all its games has been hit nail in coffin because they lost 1 game is absolutely extreme pessimism.

Statistical models account for all the playoff chances. Heres one right here on moneypuck. NHL Playoff Odds -MoneyPuck 2025 Playoff & Cup Odds

It gives us a 96.4% chance of makjng the playoffs. Other models are similar. Yesnthat means its mathematically possiblemwith 3.6% chance if missing. But talking anout final nail in our coffin when we have 96.4% chance absolutely is doomerism and not being pragmatic. Especially coming off one of the best runs we had in franchise history. Theres a difference in saying its too early to celebrate and the extreme posts you had of decrying our downfall

I said nail in the coffin, not -final- nail in the coffin. At this point, each loss is just that, a nail in the coffin, until we make the playoffs.

 

[WeWentBlues]

Big slate of games tonight in the Western Conference wild card race. Will be watching the Blues and scoreboard watching

 

[GoldenSeal]

I wouldn't describe your post as 'doomerism' and I get the pragmatism.

But I do think that your reaction about the goalie decision and the relative importance of the Winnipeg game is an overreaction. Starting Hofer was not just to rest Binner for playoffs. Both goalies have been playing very well down the stretch and keeping Binner fresh gives him a better chance of bringing his A game in each of the remaining regular season games that he plays down the stretch. Additionally, while Binner is the #1 and will be 'the guy' in the playoffs, Hofer is from Winnipeg and has been fantastic against them in his young career (2-2-1 with a .929 SV%). Binner has been sub-.900 in each of the 3 times he's played Winnipeg in the last 2 seasons. These small samples don't concern me long term, but I think that there is a very real argument that Hofer vs Winnipeg Monday increased the team's chances of maximizing points over the last 4 games compared to going with Binner.

One of the things that fueled our incredible record since 4 Nations has been excellent goaltending and one of the reasons it has been excellent is because they have been sharing the load and keeping each other fresh. Starts are 13-10 in favor of Binner since 4 Nations and we haven't hid Hofer from the good teams. The split was 7-5 during the 12 game win streak and there was only one instance where Binner started 2 games in a row. Binner's best play this season has come when the coaches have eased his workload and increased Hofer's.

The answer to the question 'how do I give our team the best chance to get great goaltending in each of the next 4 games' is not always 'play your #1 every game.'

I also think that entering this week, Winnipeg was the least crucial of our remaining 4 games. It was certainly the one where we had the lowest expected points capture. We will have to lose at least 1, and very likely 2+ of these last 3 games to miss the playoffs and all 3 games are against opponents that are significantly 'easier' matchups than Winnipeg in Winnipeg (whose 29-6-4 home record is just behind LA/Carolina as best home record in the league). If we stumble and miss the playoffs, losing that one won't be the nail in the coffin. Losing to a massively depleted Oilers team would be a much bigger deal. So would losing to the Kraken in their 81st game of the year when they have been mathematically eliminated. So would losing to Utah in their 82nd game of the year when they are on the tail end of a road back-to-back that is also their 3rd road game in 4 days.

Excellent post. I like your pov on the situation. Respect.

 

[TruBlueFan1970]

Trap game

Man, I hope you are wrong. With the win streak behind them, I hope they come out flying with a purpose to get the wins they need to seal up a playoff spot.

 

[WeWentBlues]

Will have a close to final game underway with Minnesota when the puck drops tonight in EDM. Could be a nice motivator.

 

[Stealth JD]

The Oilers are icing a barely-NHL caliber roster...the Blues need to take care of business.
Draisaitl - out. McDavid - out. Nugent-Hopkins - Out. Jeff Skinner - Out. Mattias Ekholm - out. Trent Frederic - out. John Klingberg - out.

Lets get this train back on the tracks and shut down the Bakersfield Condors tonight.

 

[Xerloris]

The Oilers are icing the a barely-NHL caliber roster...the Blues need to take care of business.
Draisaitl - out. McDavid - out. Nugent-Hopkins - Out. Jeff Skinner - Out. Mattias Ekholm - out. Trent Frederic - out. John Klingberg - out.

Lets get this train back on the tracks and shut down the Bakersfield Condors tonight.

Holy f*** that's brutal

 

[AjaxManifesto]

Should be easy wins for Flames and Wild tonight

Must win tonight for the Blues to stay in control of their future.