The Playoff Push, Tanking and Scoreboard Watching Thread

[WeWentBlues]

Fun with spreadsheets

 

[Xerloris]

This

Did anyone ever actually say what they heard or are they all Pejorative Slured and full of shit?

Team	Magic Number to clinch Playoffs	Current Points	Games Remaining	Possible Points	RW	ROW	Common Games
Blues	4	93	3	99	31	39	vs U
Wild	6	91	4	99	34	39	vs C, vs V
Flames	.	87	5	97	28	33	vs W
Canucks	.	83	5	93	27	32	vs W
Utah	.	82	5	92	27	34	vs B

The Blues are actually in WC2 at the moment. The Flames had to have that win to give themselves a chance.

Never seen anyone claim a team ahead of another team in the standings is actually in fact behind the team that they are in front of. Weird take on that.

 

[BlueDream]

Team	Magic Number to clinch Playoffs	Current Points	Games Remaining	Possible Points	RW	ROW	Common Games
Blues	4	93	3	99	31	39	vs U
Wild	6	91	4	99	34	39	vs C, vs V
Flames	.	87	5	97	28	33	vs W
Canucks	.	83	5	93	27	32	vs W
Utah	.	82	5	92	27	34	vs B

The Blues are actually in WC2 at the moment. The Flames had to have that win to give themselves a chance.

No, they’re not.

 

[Thallis]

Team	Magic Number to clinch Playoffs	Current Points	Games Remaining	Possible Points	RW	ROW	Common Games
Blues	4	93	3	99	31	39	vs U
Wild	6	91	4	99	34	39	vs C, vs V
Flames	.	87	5	97	28	33	vs W
Canucks	.	83	5	93	27	32	vs W
Utah	.	82	5	92	27	34	vs B

The Blues are actually in WC2 at the moment. The Flames had to have that win to give themselves a chance.

.589 to .583 the Blues are ahead.

 

[Thallis]

We are ahead of Minnesota by points and points percentage. I get that we are in WC2 if you go by 'possible points' but I don't consider Minnesota already ahead of us until they actually win that game in hand. I know their schedule has been hard lately and has now flipped to easy, but they have failed to get 2 points in 6 of their last 8 games, which includes two losses to the Devils, 1 loss to the Isles, and 1 loss to the Rangers. They have played 11 games against teams below them in the standings since the start of March and have won just 4 of those games.

Do I think they will win their game in hand? Yeah, it's probably more likely than not. But it is far enough away from being a slam dunk win that I'm not saying that they are currently higher than us on the assumption that they win it.

A lot depends on if/when Kaprizov and Eriksson Ek play and how well they play. They're both expected back before the regular season ends, but no word on when

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

We are ahead of Minnesota by points and points percentage. I get that we are in WC2 if you go by 'possible points' but I don't consider Minnesota already ahead of us until they actually win that game in hand. I know their schedule has been hard lately and has now flipped to easy, but they have failed to get 2 points in 6 of their last 8 games, which includes two losses to the Devils, 1 loss to the Isles, and 1 loss to the Rangers. They have played 11 games against teams below them in the standings since the start of March and have won just 4 of those games.

Do I think they will win their game in hand? Yeah, it's probably more likely than not. But it is far enough away from being a slam dunk win that I'm not saying that they are currently higher than us on the assumption that they win it.

I’m dealing in mathematical certainty about final regular season position, but you’ll note I left the Blues at the top.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Did anyone ever actually say what they heard or are they all Pejorative Slured and full of shit?



Never seen anyone claim a team ahead of another team in the standings is actually in fact behind the team that they are in front of. Weird take on that.

Minnesota has the tiebreaker on the Blues. If they win out we can’t do anything about it.

 

[StLewis11]

A lot depends on if/when Kaprizov and Eriksson Ek play and how well they play. They're both expected back before the regular season ends, but no word on when

According to the Minnesota forum, it's possible they both might return this week

 

[GoldenSeal]

Did anyone ever actually say what they heard or are they all Pejorative Slured and full of shit?



Never seen anyone claim a team ahead of another team in the standings is actually in fact behind the team that they are in front of. Weird take on that.

Games Played is our killer. Everyone other than us has games in hand and our schedule is going to be more difficult than others.

We got 3 Games left, so our best shot is 6 points @ 93 = 99 Points
Calgary has 5 Games left (2 in hand) @ 87 = 97 Points (And I expect them to win out the rest of their schedule)
Minny has 4 games left (1 in hand) @ 91 = 99 Points

This is why I was pissed that we played Binny last night over Hofer. We do NOT have a comfortable lead and are playing for our lives, so this resting him bullshit so he can be fresh for the playoffs, is absolutely stupid. There is NO room for error whatsoever. The loss last night might be the nail in the coffin. We can not lose a game and if we want the playoffs, it has to be all hands-on deck every night. Every game from hereonin should be looked at and approached as a playoff game. Because that's what it is going to take to get there.

Our sole saving grace is Minny, Vancouver and Calgary are playing one another in the last few games. If we make the playoffs and lose games, it'll be because of this.

The Oilers /look/ banged up but they're a team on a mission. We need to be the same.

 

[GoldenSeal]

A lot depends on if/when Kaprizov and Eriksson Ek play and how well they play. They're both expected back before the regular season ends, but no word on when

Minny's schedule looks gnarly, I think they rush both back on the ice even if they're not 100%.

 

[TruBlueFan1970]

Games Played is our killer. Everyone other than us has games in hand and our schedule is going to be more difficult than others.

We got 3 Games left, so our best shot is 6 points @ 93 = 99 Points
Calgary has 5 Games left (2 in hand) @ 87 = 97 Points (And I expect them to win out the rest of their schedule)
Minny has 4 games left (1 in hand) @ 91 = 99 Points

This is why I was pissed that we played Binny last night over Hofer. We do NOT have a comfortable lead and are playing for our lives, so this resting him bullshit so he can be fresh for the playoffs, is absolutely stupid. There is NO room for error whatsoever. The loss last night might be the nail in the coffin. We can not lose a game and if we want the playoffs, it has to be all hands-on deck every night. Every game from hereonin should be looked at and approached as a playoff game. Because that's what it is going to take to get there.

The Oilers /look/ banged up but they're a team on a mission. We need to be the same.

The issue with the remaining CGY schedule is the VGK and LA games. Neither of those teams will seem to have anything to play for and may be resting regulars. Vegas leads LA by 5 points, who lead EDM by 4 points. Not sure any of them have anything to play for, except maybe EDM who have not yet clinched a playoff spot.

CGY may very well run the table and put the pressure on us to win two games in regulation.

 

[TheDizee]

The issue with the remaining CGY schedule is the VGK and LA games. Neither of those teams will seem to have anything to play for and may be resting regulars. Vegas leads LA by 5 points, who lead EDM by 4 points. Not sure any of them have anything to play for, except maybe EDM who have not yet clinched a playoff spot.

CGY may very well run the table and put the pressure on us to win two games in regulation.

The MIN/CGY game needs to end in regulation. Worst thing would be a 3pt game.

 

[ToastedRavioli]

Calgary plays VGK, LA, MIN, SJS, and ANA. If they lose a single one of those games, which is very likely, we only need to win one game. Even if they win all 5 we only need to win 2/3 and we're facing Seattle, Utah, and an Oilers team without McDavid, Draisatl, Frederic, Kane, Skinner, and Ekholm. Let's hit the breaks on the doomerism. It's frankly more likely than not that we already have enough points to get in. Calgary dropping two out of 5 is actually a better record than the expected outcome. Moneypuck has them projected to pick up 5.5 points. They need 7 to pass us even if we lose all our games. If we can win 1/3 we'll have a ~95% (not hyperbole) chance to make the playoffs. Sure it'd be better to clinch and have 100% but this is not a doomsday scenario right now, it's not even a high risk one.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

If Vancouver loses, then they will be eliminated.

 

[GoldenSeal]

Calgary plays VGK, LA, MIN, SJS, and ANA. If they lose a single one of those games, which is very likely, we only need to win one game. Even if they win all 5 we only need to win 2/3 and we're facing Seattle, Utah, and an Oilers team without McDavid, Draisatl, Frederic, Kane, Skinner, and Ekholm. Let's hit the breaks on the doomerism. It's frankly more likely than not that we already have enough points to get in. Calgary dropping two out of 5 is actually a better record than the expected outcome. Moneypuck has them projected to pick up 5.5 points. They need 7 to pass us even if we lose all our games. If we can win 1/3 we'll have a ~95% (not hyperbole) chance to make the playoffs. Sure it'd be better to clinch and have 100% but this is not a doomsday scenario right now, it's not even a high risk one.

No one save maybe one has a hint of 'doomerism'. Discussing scenarios isn't doomerism. I think maybe hir the brakes on the extremism. The rest of your post is excellent and I'm glad you contributed to that 'doomerism' conversation.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

No one save maybe one has a hint of 'doomerism'. Discussing scenarios isn't doomerism. I think maybe hir the brakes on the extremism. The rest of your post is excellent and I'm glad you contributed to that 'doomerism' conversation.

One day, none of the current Blues players will be Blues players.

 

[TheDizee]

Epic choke by Dallas. Blew a THREE goal lead in the final minute and then lost in OT to Vancouver

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

That was insane. 3 goals in the final 52 seconds.

Dallas has defensive issues.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

That was insane. 3 goals in the final 52 seconds.

Dallas has defensive issues.

They are a paper tiger without Heiskanen. If he isn’t back, they are gonna have hellish time with Avs.

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

They are a paper tiger without Heiskanen. If he isn’t back, they are gonna have hellish time with Avs.

That's what I'm thinking. I've seen a lot of Stars action over the last month and they don't impress me. It's pretty much been the Jake Oettinger show over the last couple weeks. Avs do impress me, as much as I hate to say it.

 

[ToastedRavioli]

No one save maybe one has a hint of 'doomerism'. Discussing scenarios isn't doomerism. I think maybe hir the brakes on the extremism. The rest of your post is excellent and I'm glad you contributed to that 'doomerism' conversation.

Sorry, that wasn't intended to be insulting or anything. I just felt that

There is NO room for error whatsoever. The loss last night might be the nail in the coffin. We can not lose a game ...

was a bit of an extreme reaction given the scenario. I think saying the loss last night might be the nail in the coffin when we are guaranteed in the playoffs with 2 wins, extremely likely in with 1 win and still more likely than not with 0 wins was a bit doomery, but I wasn't trying to insult or be extreme lol

 

[TruBlueFan1970]

They are a paper tiger without Heiskanen. If he isn’t back, they are gonna have hellish time with Avs.

That's what I'm thinking. I've seen a lot of Stars action over the last month and they don't impress me. It's pretty much been the Jake Oettinger show over the last couple weeks. Avs do impress me, as much as I hate to say it.

Even with all their issues, I hope they demolish the Avs. Can’t stand COL and wish them nothing but the worst.

With Dallas struggling and EDM with some injury issues, this may finally open a path for WPG. I prefer them to go on a run versus a team like VGK.

 

[MissouriMook]

If I’m understanding the tiebreaker correctly, Vancouver can no longer finish ahead of us. They can tie us in points, tie us in RW, but can’t catch us in ROW. Not a “clinch” per se but seems relevant.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Team	Magic Number to clinch Playoffs	Current Points	Games Remaining	Possible Points	RW	ROW	Common Games
Blues	4	93	3	99	31	39	vs U
Wild	6	91	4	99	34	39	vs C, vs V
Flames	.	87	5	97	28	33	vs W
Canucks	.	85	4	93	27	33	vs W
Utah	.	84	4	92	28	35	vs B

Both Utah and Vancouver live to die another day.

For the critics of my table, if you wanted the NHL style standings you can just go to that page. I’m doing this ranking by magic numbers and by the ceiling each team has possible in the last few games. Yes, I know the points percentages…but it should be obvious I intentionally left that out. Personally, I don’t think point percentage is very interesting when we get down to a handful of games left.

I can’t believe the Blues only have 3 games remaining. There were so many years in a row where the Blues were in Calgary’s position - playing the densest schedule the last 2-3 weeks of the season.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

If I’m understanding the tiebreaker correctly, Vancouver can no longer finish ahead of us. They can tie us in points, tie us in RW, but can’t catch us in ROW. Not a “clinch” per se but seems relevant.

Yes, the Blues only need to pay attention to Minnesota and Calgary. But both Vancouver and Utah can mathematically pass Minnesota. Hopes are on fumes, but not dead yet.