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OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: Off Season We dont need a QB Edition

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I actually saw +190 on the Steelers taking him as the most recent moneyline.
Yeah draftkings is a little more bullish

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Also I think you have to be an extreme degenerate to bet on the NFL draft :laugh:

Is Shedeur a better prospect than Penix? I know he has a better health history, but does anyone have an opinion from an arm talent perspective?

Worse than Penix but on par with Nix and McCarthy IMO.

Him going #20 in the draft is an appropriate position for him to be going, while the QBs last year got really overdrafted due to a bunch of teams needing QBs.
 
I’d just feel a lot better about Sanders if the Steelers were in the NFC. I think he’ll be solid and you can make some noise in the NFC with solid.

I don’t think it plays in the AFC though.
 
Also I think you have to be an extreme degenerate to bet on the NFL draft :laugh:



Worse than Penix but on par with Nix and McCarthy IMO.

Him going #20 in the draft is an appropriate position for him to be going, while the QBs last year got really overdrafted due to a bunch of teams needing QBs.
There's good value in betting on the NFL draft if you're early to the scene. A lot of the lines are based on media narratives.

The 20's is such a poor range for drafting a QB in the first place, if that's where a prospect is correctly mocked, it probably means he's not a great QB prospect.

This tweet kind of sums it up for me:
 
Is Shedeur a better prospect than Penix? I know he has a better health history, but does anyone have an opinion from an arm talent perspective?

I think they're seen as similar prospects overall, with some having Sanders higher and some having Penix higher, but arm talent wise it's Penix and it's not even close. Penix is the next best thing to the elite of the elite throw it over the mountain monsters; Sanders is NFL average at best.

Honestly, Penix was a weird ass prospect from what I recall and my quick refresher. Very much like latter day Wilson - nasty deep ball but struggles with the more intermediate and short timing stuff. Also very fast, but nobody had any idea until he ran his 40 as it just wasn't on tape.

I think the obvious comp for Sanders with a QB from last year is Bo Nix. Very accurate, but helped by the scheme; NFL adequate arm rather NFL good; a smart player, but is he smart enough for what he is at the NFL? The obvious difference I can see between the two is that Nix is that bit more mobile and that Nix is very good at avoiding getting sacked and Sanders very bad.

I got to say, I lowkey thought I wanted Nix last draft. I was worried about the whole older prospect with so-so arm repeat, but I thought his profile showed that he was smarter than Pickett and I thought it could work out. So far that appears right, but the part where he looked shaky as hell at first makes me wonder a lot whether he'd have worked out if he hadn't landed with Payton.
 
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Steelers - Sanders
Browns - Milroe
Giants - Dart
Saints - Shough

Final answer.


Swap the Steelers and Browns and that's my bet for what happens.

I think the Browns trade up above the Steelers to get Sanders to pair with Hunter. Dart and Shough go in round 2 to the Giants and Saints and Milroe goes in round 3 to the Steelers.

The Saints apparently love Dart as well so maybe they trade up into the 1st to take him over the Giants.
 
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Steelers - Sanders
Browns - Milroe
Giants - Dart
Saints - Shough

Final answer.


Given the QBs that Stefanski has had the most success with, I'd be a bit puzzled if they plumped for Milroe.
 
Given the QBs that Stefanski has had the most success with, I'd be a bit puzzled if they plumped for Milroe.

There’s the Tommy Rees connection there that I could see playing some part in the interest.

As far as them trading up or something…I don’t know. It’d be a very Browns thing to do to spend a third and a future second to trade up and reunite Sanders and Hunter. I’m just very skeptical of that happening. They’re going to legitimately be bad enough to be in the running for a top pick next year as well. Sanders isn’t gonna help with that.

I could legitimately see them rolling with Pickett next year and taking the lotto ticket in Milroe.
 
What if this team goes 9-8 again next year and are picking #20 again? Do you just say "let's wait until 2027"?

That's why I don't like the idea of passing on Sanders for an unnamed better option. There's no guarantee you're ever in a position to get a better guy and there's no guarantee you can trade up to get that guy.
Should they go 9-8ish, with the extra picks they'll likely have in the 2027 draft, they'll have the ammunition to move up in the 1st rd to get the future starting QB.
 
Should they go 9-8ish, with the extra picks they'll likely have in the 2027 draft, they'll have the ammunition to move up in the 1st rd to get the future starting QB.

So they'll trade an additional 2027 1st to move up from about #20 to #10 to draft a QB, or have to use another 2 1sts (meaning probably #20 plus 3 1sts) to move up from #20 to the top-5 to draft a QB. Only for if that guy doesn't pan out, you've completely screwed in the next 5 years due to how much you paid to trade up.
 
While I am very much on board the elite or forget it bus for drafting QBs, the range that stops just short of the drafts with Love and Hurts is a little easy to criticise :laugh:
Yeah I guess but it's just the most recent data we have. I think it just demonstrates that we're talking about a ~10% hit rate. Finding a Jalen Hurts is the extreme outlier and every team that's tried to find one in the last 4 years has wasted their pick. Historically there's just a massive fall-off for QB outside the first 10 or 12 picks.
 
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