OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: Its January and we are still talking about Handball!?! Currently 10-6

[bigdaddyk88]

And Fields as a starter is a clear downgrade on Wilson as a starter.

Look I don't care if they go with Fields as a starter next year because they're not winning with either Fields or Wilson, but Wilson is clearly the best option they could sign for next year. Getting the actual long-term QB is going to have to be from the 2026 draft, if they intend on getting it as soon as possible.

RW has not eclipsed 210 passing yards since December 1. Watching the 2 minute drill last night was the last straw for me

 

[Peat]

I’m gonna at some point try to do a comparison of all their stats this year, but I think as a whole the numbers would say that’s it’s a lot closer between the two than people would think.

I know EPA and success rate favor Fields.

I think Baldwin's adjusted EPA favours Wilson by 0.05, or at least it did before the Bengals game, which is amusingly enough the gap between them last year too.

I'll be curious to see what a full deep dive shows. I suspect it's going to look close given the gauntlet Wilson just went through.

Eye test... I dunno man. It feels like they underwent different trials. But I find it hard to look at each guy's lows and think that one is lower than the other. Wilson opened more cans of whupass than Fields, but I wonder how much of that was just opportunity.

I suspect they're close enough that I wouldn't care and would give the job to the lowest bidder, with preference for Wilson given his standing in the game does seem to be a good thing for the locker room.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Wilson has been performing at a Kenny Pickett level the past 4 or 5 games. And half of his production during that time has been when the Steelers are down by 2 possessions while the defenses are backing off into a prevent mode. He just looks easily confused by the defenses and is taking extra time to process while not being able to identify an open lane/receiver. He of course does this standing flat-footed in the pocket with no awareness as to how the rush is developing. It’s a hard-to-watch 180 from where he was just a little over a month ago, and I can’t tell if he is genuinely cooked or other teams just figured him/Steelers out. The cookie cutter predictable play calling hasn’t exactly benefited him either.

Comically dumb take. Wilson threw 4 TDs and rushed for another one in those 4 games. Pickett threw 13 TD passes through 25 career games for the Steelers.

 

[NewAgeOutlaw]

Even if they found a qb in the draft they would almost certainly be broken by getting 8 pass attempts in an entire half exclusively in obvious passing situations.

The way the first 3 quarters was called was infuriating. When Russ returned they were going off based on play action passing and moonballs but they totally abandoned it because "that's not Stiller football!".

 

[Empoleon8771]

The whole comments about Wilson's numbers being bad to end the year is even dumber in my eyes when you realize that Pickens was out for 3 of their last 5 games and was a complete ghost in their last game. Yes, it's Russell Wilson's fault that he can't rack up passing yards with Calvin Austin as his WR1 and Smith as his OC!

Like I posted before last game, the fact that the Steelers last year ended up with an identical record despite having significantly worse QB play should be a blaring red siren about how there are much larger issues than QB on this team. But instead, it's just Wilson's fault that he can't make the passing offense work and how they need to move on from Wilson.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Yes Pickins is worth a td and 100 yards to RW and yet he had 1 target in the 1st half yesterday because he was on RW left side.
The same issues happened in Denver so its not new.
On December 1st RW had over 400 yards against that same bengals defense

 

[UnrealMachine]

Comically dumb take. Wilson threw 4 TDs and rushed for another one in those 4 games. Pickett threw 13 TD passes through 25 career games for the Steelers.

I wasn’t basing my opinion on a solitary stat, but if I was I’d be more likely to look at historical ones such as the team scoring 17 or less on 4 straight games. And again, how many of those stats that buoyed RW were compiled after the Steelers were already well behind in the score. So if you want to split hairs perhaps I’ll amend mine to say 1st half Pickett performances. He just looked really, really bad.

 

[Peat]

The whole comments about Wilson's numbers being bad to end the year is even dumber in my eyes when you realize that Pickens was out for 3 of their last 5 games and was a complete ghost in their last game. Yes, it's Russell Wilson's fault that he can't rack up passing yards with Calvin Austin as his WR1 and Smith as his OC!

Like I posted before last game, the fact that the Steelers last year ended up with an identical record despite having significantly worse QB play should be a blaring red siren about how there are much larger issues than QB on this team. But instead, it's just Wilson's fault that he can't make the passing offense work and how they need to move on from Wilson.

How much would you be willing to give Wilson?

 

[xlm34]

I think Baldwin's adjusted EPA favours Wilson by 0.05, or at least it did before the Bengals game, which is amusingly enough the gap between them last year too.

I'll be curious to see what a full deep dive shows. I suspect it's going to look close given the gauntlet Wilson just went through.

Eye test... I dunno man. It feels like they underwent different trials. But I find it hard to look at each guy's lows and think that one is lower than the other. Wilson opened more cans of whupass than Fields, but I wonder how much of that was just opportunity.

I suspect they're close enough that I wouldn't care and would give the job to the lowest bidder, with preference for Wilson given his standing in the game does seem to be a good thing for the locker room.

Here’s what I got. I’m sure there’s way more you can add to this and some context is needed…but man I’m just not seeing Wilson as significantly better. So I’m with you in that if only one comes back, just go with the cheaper option. If they bring both back, I would hope they would go into things with an open mind.

Justin Fields:


EPA/Play: .101

Adjusted EPA/Play: .11

Success Rate: 46.3%

Total Yards Per Game: 223

ANY/A: 5.86

TDS per game: 1.67

Turnovers per game: .33

Offense PPG: 20.67

Average Defense EPA Ranking Faced: 14



Russell Wilson:


EPA/Play: .019

Adjusted EPA/Play: .041

Success Rate: 43.3%

Total Yards Per Game: 240

ANY/A: 6.13

TDS per game: 1.63

Turnovers per game: .73

Offense PPG: 22

Average Defense EPA Ranking Faced: 19

 

[Empoleon8771]

How much would you be willing to give Wilson?

Probably max out at $25 million a year, but if the option is Wilson vs Fields and a legitimate WR2 like Higgins, that would easily change my mind.

Purely in a vacuum, I'd do Wilson at $25 million over Fields at like $10 million. But if it's Fields plus Higgins for $25 million, especially if Higgins is signed for multiple years (meaning your 2026 drafted QB will have another threat), I'd go Fields.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Probably max out at $25 million a year, but if the option is Wilson vs Fields and a legitimate WR2 like Higgins, that would easily change my mind.

Purely in a vacuum, I'd do Wilson at $25 million over Fields at like $10 million. But if it's Fields plus Higgins for $25 million, especially if Higgins is signed for multiple years (meaning your 2026 drafted QB will have another threat), I'd go Fields.

I wouldn’t even get to 20 million but yes I think it’s better to go fields and Higgins

 

[Peat]

Probably max out at $25 million a year, but if the option is Wilson vs Fields and a legitimate WR2 like Higgins, that would easily change my mind.

Purely in a vacuum, I'd do Wilson at $25 million over Fields at like $10 million. But if it's Fields plus Higgins for $25 million, especially if Higgins is signed for multiple years (meaning your 2026 drafted QB will have another threat), I'd go Fields.

Sounds fair. I'd agree with wanting to spend money on star skill players over Wilson. That's the big one for me.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Sounds fair. I'd agree with wanting to spend money on star skill players over Wilson. That's the big one for me.

Yeah because like I said, this team isn't winning with any QB they could reasonably acquire this year. They need to focus on building out the team to be ready for their actual next QB.

This is really what makes whiffing on the Pickett pick hurt so much. It's not anyone's fault that the class was just a bad year for QB, but they're in a position where they should have a QB on his last year of his rookie deal and a ton of money to spend surrounding him with talent. Instead, we're just talking about what they need to do to draft their actual next QB.

 

[Pens1566]

Skattebo falls into "great college player, fringe NFLer" category. He should focus on special teams play if he's really gonna make a career of it.

 

[WickedWrister]

Raiders up 10-3 right now, good if we want to play HOU

 

[WickedWrister]

Here’s what I got. I’m sure there’s way more you can add to this and some context is needed…but man I’m just not seeing Wilson as significantly better. So I’m with you in that if only one comes back, just go with the cheaper option. If they bring both back, I would hope they would go into things with an open mind.

Justin Fields:


EPA/Play: .101

Adjusted EPA/Play: .11

Success Rate: 46.3%

Total Yards Per Game: 223

ANY/A: 5.86

TDS per game: 1.67

Turnovers per game: .33

Offense PPG: 20.67

Average Defense EPA Ranking Faced: 14



Russell Wilson:


EPA/Play: .019

Adjusted EPA/Play: .041

Success Rate: 43.3%

Total Yards Per Game: 240

ANY/A: 6.13

TDS per game: 1.63

Turnovers per game: .73

Offense PPG: 22

Average Defense EPA Ranking Faced: 19

Visualization of some of these numbers. Fields better EPA, Wilson better CPOE. Cumulative of these two has Fields QB17 on the year, Wilson QB20. Pickett was like QB29 in 2023 and in the bottom left quadrant.

 

[metalan2]

Chargers scored 11 points in like a minute lol.

Aidan oconnel is Pejorative Slured. Raiders will always be bad.

 

[Goalie_Bob]

I’d go with Fields because he is younger and more dynamic and still has a chance to progress.

Wilson will only regress. He looked aweful against decent teams. No way do I want the Steelers paying him 25mil. Use that money to make the team better.

 

[metalan2]

Fields should be the starter with this inept coaching. Wilson threw the ball 20x and we were down double digits. Teams up 20 throw more than that.

Tomlin and Smith are utter imbeciles that think it's 1995. Just put Fields out there to much it up then.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Fields should be the starter with this inept coaching. Wilson threw the ball 20x and we were down double digits. Teams up 20 throw more than that.

Tomlin and Smith are utter imbeciles that think it's 1995. Just put Fields out there to much it up then.

RW only has 1 pass he is comfortable with you calling 20 moon balls

 

[metalan2]

Raiders are so sad.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Chargers scored 11 points in like a minute lol.

Aidan oconnel is Pejorative Slured. Raiders will always be bad.

johnston has 12 targets seems to come along way from being the bust every one said he was last year

 

[Andy99]

Raiders are so sad.

It’s fine. Play the better team. Nothing is gonna change if we squeak by or lose a close game. We need to be demolished lol

 

[wheelz87]

Raiders are so sad.

We had 4 chances to not shit the bed. Alas here we are.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

So Lamar has 2 wins in the playoffs and 2 wins in his career against Tomlin. You can guarantee it’s not going to be the prime exclusive game.