OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: 5 and 2 Justin who? Hand the Fields to Wilson

[xlm34]

This stretch is gonna be an absolute gauntlet and it’d be nice to stack up some more wins but I think I could come out of these next 3 feeling good about this team even if they go 1-2 or something as long as the offense can continue to put up points.

I’m already assuming the Chiefs will pull some of their voodoo shit and Boswell will miss a 30 yard chip shot to win it or something.

 

[WickedWrister]

I'm a little surprised the early line has Philly as -4.5 favorites. I watched some of their game yesterday and they didn't look like world beaters. An Xavier Legette drop away from losing. Eagles passing offense looks pedestrian this year. If we can shut down the likely OPOTY Barkley and force Hurts into 3rd and longs this is a winnable game. He has been held under 200 yards passing the last 3 weeks.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'll also give some credit to Jones, he has really settled down in the past few weeks after a bad start to the year. Jones was extremely good in the past few weeks according to PFF, with a score of roughly 70 or above in all of week 13 vs the Bengals, week 12 vs the Browns and week 10 against the Commanders since the bye. I don't know his score for yesterday yet, but I didn't notice him having any issues so I figure it will be another solid week.

It took a bit and he did have a bad game against the Ravens a few weeks ago, but he finally looks to be hitting his stride as at least an effective OT.

 

[MrBrightside]

The Steelers floor is the 5-seed given that they are 2 up AND have the tiebreaker on LAC and DEN, so they are really playing for the division. Given that, yes, every game matters, and the notion they should rest guys or play with less effort or whatever this is trying to suggest is nonsense.

I'm a little surprised the early line has Philly as -4.5 favorites. I watched some of their game yesterday and they didn't look like world beaters. An Xavier Legette drop away from losing. Eagles passing offense looks pedestrian this year. If we can shut down the likely OPOTY Barkley and force Hurts into 3rd and longs this is a winnable game. He has been held under 200 yards passing the last 3 weeks.

The Eagles are actually a pretty good matchup for the Steelers. Not saying they'll win, but Hurts is the worst QB (at least passing) they have left and that's where they are most susceptible.

 

[WickedWrister]

The venerable Gerry Dulac says Pickens has a grade 2 hammy and doesn't think they are expecting him to play in Philly either.

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[Peat]

Dulac saying Pickens is expected to miss the Eagles game.

It’s interesting but I suspect it’s a tough sell if they bring back Russ. Probably want immediate help.

Maybe you could move down to the mid 2nd for a 1st next year though?

You'd pick up a pick this year doing it. Not quite sure which as the best recent example for this I can find is the Eagles and that trade with the Saints was big and complicated, but I think you'd at least get a 3rd and you could maybe get a 2nd.

But yeah, tough sell. And very un-Steelers-esque.

You kind of answered your own question. This is Harris in a nutshell. He's inconsistent from game to game and he happened to be inconsistent within a game itself.

They can do better than a guy who only has managed 4 ypc his entire career.

Inconsistent players are rarely inconsistent for no reason and I always prefer to look for the reasons than think it's just one of those things, particularly in the NFL where every player's success is predicated on a complex and frail chain of events.

 

[xlm34]

If Russell Wilson can lead this team to a good offensive performance against the Eagles without Pickens, I will probably be fully on board giving him whatever contract he wants.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Tbh I'd plan on drafting a WR in round 1, because after they pay Wilson they're going to need cheap WR talent to support him. Especially with Pickens also being due an extension in the near term. The dream scenario would to find another Minkah situation but a WR instead, and just trade their 1st for a disgruntled rookie deal WR that they'll have for a few years. I have no clue who would fall in that group though.

Looking at Green Bay, maybe they could be an option to get a WR? They're insanely deep at WR with Reed, Watson, Doubs and Wicks all 25 or younger. I think Doubs only has 1 year left but he'd be the guy I'd be calling about.

 

[Peat]

This stretch is gonna be an absolute gauntlet and it’d be nice to stack up some more wins but I think I could come out of these next 3 feeling good about this team even if they go 1-2 or something as long as the offense can continue to put up points.

I’m already assuming the Chiefs will pull some of their voodoo shit and Boswell will miss a 30 yard chip shot to win it or something.

Boswell missing would be evidence of actual witchcraft/blackmail.

I just want to see them look good against these teams. I can live with losing, it's the performance that matters.

I'm a little surprised the early line has Philly as -4.5 favorites. I watched some of their game yesterday and they didn't look like world beaters. An Xavier Legette drop away from losing. Eagles passing offense looks pedestrian this year. If we can shut down the likely OPOTY Barkley and force Hurts into 3rd and longs this is a winnable game. He has been held under 200 yards passing the last 3 weeks.

Eagles get the benefit of the doubt as a team that elevates and plays its best football in big games, Steelers don't (even if that's all perception based). Think that's it really.

I have to say I'm a little bemused they've put themselves on the heavyweight end of the scale after that start and given how Hurts has been playing. Although Hurts has been playing very well for his attempts post-bye - only one game over 25 attempts - the amount of attempts raises questions about what will happen if he has to extend himself.

Tbh I'd plan on drafting a WR in round 1, because after they pay Wilson they're going to need cheap WR talent to support him. Especially with Pickens also being due an extension in the near term. The dream scenario would to find another Minkah situation but a WR instead, and just trade their 1st for a disgruntled rookie deal WR that they'll have for a few years. I have no clue who would fall in that group though.

Looking at Green Bay, maybe they could be an option to get a WR? They're insanely deep at WR with Reed, Watson, Doubs and Wicks all 25 or younger. I think Doubs only has 1 year left but he'd be the guy I'd be calling about.

Isn't Doubs the guy who didn't turn up to training?

 

[MrBrightside]

Boswell missing would be evidence of actual witchcraft/blackmail.

I just want to see them look good against these teams. I can live with losing, it's the performance that matters.



Eagles get the benefit of the doubt as a team that elevates and plays its best football in big games, Steelers don't (even if that's all perception based). Think that's it really.

The Steelers have won 8 straight regular season games against teams who made the playoffs or who are in the playoffs. To the contrary, the Steelers don't deserve the benefit of the doubt when they play bad teams and don't show up, not when playing good ones.

 

[WickedWrister]

Eagles get the benefit of the doubt as a team that elevates and plays its best football in big games, Steelers don't (even if that's all perception based). Think that's it really.

I have to say I'm a little bemused they've put themselves on the heavyweight end of the scale after that start and given how Hurts has been playing. Although Hurts has been playing very well for his attempts post-bye - only one game over 25 attempts - the amount of attempts raises questions about what will happen if he has to extend himself.

I don't think Hurts has been playing that well this year. Like not bench worthy, but it's clearly a different kind of offense with Saquon - way more skewed towards the run. Like 31st in raw passing offense and 1st in rushing.

 

[Peat]

I don't think Hurts has been playing that well this year. Like not bench worthy, but it's clearly a different kind of offense with Saquon - way more skewed towards the run. Like 31st in raw passing offense and 1st in rushing.

A lot of the numbers hold up and when I've seen him play he's looked solid, but I'm guessing you've seen a lot more of him.

I do wonder what will happen when Hurts' contract allows the Eagles to move on (2027 season from the looks of it) cos it looks like Steichen got him one great season at the best possible moment for Hurts, but otherwise he's not it.

 

[JTG]

I'll also give some credit to Jones, he has really settled down in the past few weeks after a bad start to the year. Jones was extremely good in the past few weeks according to PFF, with a score of roughly 70 or above in all of week 13 vs the Bengals, week 12 vs the Browns and week 10 against the Commanders since the bye. I don't know his score for yesterday yet, but I didn't notice him having any issues so I figure it will be another solid week.

It took a bit and he did have a bad game against the Ravens a few weeks ago, but he finally looks to be hitting his stride as at least an effective OT.

59. 39 PBK grade.

His grade the first time against Cleveland was a 69 though, so it is again just a tale of inconsistency. He has it in him.

I just want to see them look good against these teams. I can live with losing, it's the performance that matters.

Agreed. If they look like they can hang with Philly, that is a pretty good litmus test.

 

[pistolpete11]

I'm a little surprised the early line has Philly as -4.5 favorites. I watched some of their game yesterday and they didn't look like world beaters. An Xavier Legette drop away from losing. Eagles passing offense looks pedestrian this year. If we can shut down the likely OPOTY Barkley and force Hurts into 3rd and longs this is a winnable game. He has been held under 200 yards passing the last 3 weeks.

They are 11-2 with the #2 ranked defense and the #8 ranked offense on a 9 game win streak at home. Yes, they narrowly escaped with a win against a 3-9 team, but it wasn't that long ago the Steelers DID lose to a 2-8 team. Trying to be objective, the line makes sense to me.

As a Steeler fan, though, I think they have a real shot. Saquon is a different beast, but if they can slow down Henry, they can slow down Saquon. Not saying they will, but they can. And Hurts is a worse version of Jackson who they also slowed down. Problem is that's only half the battle considering how good their defense is, too.

 

[MrBrightside]

Burkhart and Brady to do the next 2 Steelers games on Fox.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

Inconsistent players are rarely inconsistent for no reason and I always prefer to look for the reasons than think it's just one of those things, particularly in the NFL where every player's success is predicated on a complex and frail chain of events.

But look no further than Warren who got above the 4.0 demarcation line in this game. He also out averages Harris throughout his career.

There is no context here. Warren outperforms Harris and there is enough data here to draw reasonable conclusions that Warren is the better back.

Now would Warren hold up as a bell cow? Nope, but that's not the question being posed. Who is the better back? It's Warren by a solid head.

The venerable Gerry Dulac says Pickens has a grade 2 hammy and doesn't think they are expecting him to play in Philly either.

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Would not surprise me if they sat some players this game who are coming back from injury.
This game is really inconsequential. It's the next 3 games in like 14 days that will determine their playoff fate

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Have not won in Philly since 65 this is the least of the big 3 games
Beat bmore clinch the division

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

Have not won in Philly since 65 this is the least of the big 3 games
Beat bmore clinch the division

And don't get me wrong, I always want to win. Plus it never hurts to have another W in terms of tiebreakers.
But the biggest test lies with Baltimore.

 

[pistolpete11]

Would not surprise me if they sat some players this game who are coming back from injury.
This game is really inconsequential. It's the next 3 games in like 14 days that will determine their playoff fate

I don't know that's true. I mean, sure, maybe it plays out that way somehow, but it's very reasonable that the Ravens win out. The Steelers *should beat the Bungles again. That's not a guarantee, but for demonstration purposes, let's say they do. That still means we need to beat the Eagles or Chiefs to tie the Ravens. I played around with the ESPN Playoff Machine and I believe the Steelers would win the tiebreaker over the Ravens, but we'd need to beat the Eagles or Chiefs, too.

They could make it easy on themselves and just beat the Ravens, but they tried their damnedest in the first 1 and beat them by 2 points at home.

Not to mention it keeps them alive for the #1 seed and/or could make the Bungles game meaningless and I'd rather rest the starters in Week 18 instead of needing to win that game.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

I don't know that's true. I mean, sure, maybe it plays out that way somehow, but it's very reasonable that the Ravens win out. The Steelers *should beat the Bungles again. That's not a guarantee, but for demonstration purposes, let's say they do. That still means we need to beat the Eagles or Chiefs to tie the Ravens. I played around with the ESPN Playoff Machine and I believe the Steelers would win the tiebreaker over the Ravens, but we'd need to beat the Eagles or Chiefs, too.

They could make it easy on themselves and just beat the Ravens, but they tried their damnedest in the first 1 and beat them by 2 points at home.

Not to mention it keeps them alive for the #1 seed and/or could make the Bungles game meaningless and I'd rather rest the starters in Week 18 instead of needing to win that game.

Yea my word choice probably wasn't the best. I believe winning the division is what the team is focused on. Big daddy phrased it better that it's the "least important of the 3 remaining games"

 

[MrBrightside]

This Dulac report on Pickens doesn't really make much sense. If he legitimately has a Grade 2 hamstring injury, his season is in doubt (at least the rest of the regular season) and the NFL would fine the shit out of the Steelers for calling him questionable on Sunday for what's normally a 6-8 week injury for a WR (pretty sure that's what Nico Collins had).

 

[bigdaddyk88]

 

[xlm34]

This Dulac report on Pickens doesn't really make much sense. If he legitimately has a Grade 2 hamstring injury, his season is in doubt (at least the rest of the regular season) and the NFL would fine the shit out of the Steelers for calling him questionable on Sunday for what's normally a 6-8 week injury for a WR (pretty sure that's what Nico Collins had).

There’s no chance they would get fined for this. They put him on the injury report as soon as the injury happened and then could just say it’s worse than they initially thought.

 

[Peat]

I can't see the Steelers getting fined.

But the point that a grade 2 hamstring is more likely to be him done for the season than being able to play 20 snaps vs the Browns is a true one. I wouldn't be surprised if they're blowing a ton of air about this to spring Pickens vs the Eagles as a surprise

 

[Andy99]

Dulac was also comparing the hamstring injury to Fields’ which was essentially a two-game recovery….zero suggestion it had the potential to be season-ending…