The offseason begins

[Ace]

Bengals have the second highest paid QB (tied with Allen and others), the highest paid WR 1 (highest paid non QB in the league), and the highest paid WR 2

And everyone else is shit. Except an edge rusher they’re probably going to trade.

Burrow and Chase pay whatever…you aren’t improving on them in any way. I wouldn’t be paying a WR2 that money when my team has so many needs.

 

[TehDoak]

Bengals have the second highest paid QB (tied with Allen and others), the highest paid WR 1 (highest paid non QB in the league), and the highest paid WR 2

And everyone else is shit. Except an edge rusher they’re probably going to trade.

Burrow and Chase pay whatever…you aren’t improving on them in any way. I wouldn’t be paying a WR2 that money when my team has so many needs.

They are going to have to have some unbelievable draft classes to be a contender.

It doesn;t help that Baltimore is in their division and Pittsburgh isn't a pushover.

 

[Zman5778]

Burrow and Chase holding tbe bengals hostage and forcing them to give Higgins that contract is a thing of beauty. Love to see it as a Bills fan. Hopefully next they leverage a record the deal Cook wants for Chase Brown.

What's going to be funny/tragic is when Burrow gets killed behind their O-line year after year. He's going to get Carson Palmer-ed. (or David Carr-ed).

As an aside: I know that AAV =/= cap in the NFL. Trust me, I get it. But the Bengals are putting out an AAV of ~$125M for a QB and 2 WRs. On a cap of $280M. That's ~45%. Now, I get that the cap numbers will be lower for a bit.

But they're still going to be unable to stop anyone....or keep Burrow upright.....or run the ball that well........

 

[PatLaFontaineASMR]

Bengals are now

1st in WR spending (two WRs in the top 5)

28th in OL spending
22nd in DEF spending

Interesting way of building a team

 

[Dirty Dog]

Interesting that Joe Burrow apparently needs weapons galore to have a top offense. Anyone that wants to put Burrow near Allen’s level, exhibit A of why thats wrong

 

[ValJamesDuex]

Interesting that Joe Burrow apparently needs weapons galore to have a top offense. Anyone that wants to put Burrow near Allen’s level, exhibit A of why thats wrong

uhh, he's been to a Super Bowl and won a National Championship too so lets be a little careful about the snide.

 

[TehDoak]

I am very curious if any studies have ever been done about The efficacy of paying #2 WR big dollars when you are already paying your #1 WR and QB. And what the drop is if you simply plug in lets say a 1st/2nd day drafted WR into that slot.

Can any team had success spending this much on QB/WRs as a % of the cap. I'm assuming not. Spending 70M on one position is problematic. Especially with all of them last year they weren't even a top 5 offense.

I can't imagine you are going to get more than 100-200 more yards total a season on having the best #2 WR in the business and just one you draft in the 1st round with the pick you traded him for. It doesn't take a superstar to play opposite a superstar #1 WR.

 

[Jim Bob]

I am very curious if any studies have ever been done about The efficacy of paying #2 WR big dollars when you are already paying your #1 WR and QB. And what the drop is if you simply plug in lets say a 1st/2nd day drafted WR into that slot.

Can any team had success spending this much on QB/WRs as a % of the cap. I'm assuming not. Spending 70M on one position is problematic. Especially with all of them last year they weren't even a top 5 offense.

I can't imagine you are going to get more than 100-200 more yards total a season on having the best #2 WR in the business and just one you draft in the 1st round with the pick you traded him for. It doesn't take a superstar to play opposite a superstar #1 WR.

The hilarious part for me is that the Bills scored 53 more points than the Bengals last year and we still have fans and media that feel like the Bills need a big money Alpha WR1.

If last year didn't show people that you don't need a big name WR1 to have an elite NFL offense, nothing will.

For me, building the offense around QB1 and the OL is the way to go.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Dirty Dog]

uhh, he's been to a Super Bowl and won a National Championship too so lets be a little careful about the snide.

Yup, and always had to have elite weapons to perform. If you’re a franchise qb, you don’t need 70 million tied up in your top two WRs.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

Yup, and always had to have elite weapons to perform. If you’re a franchise qb, you don’t need 70 million tied up in your top two WRs.

The Eagles won the Super Bowl with weapons, just sayin'

Maybe we get Hendrickson out of this although I dont see Brown trading with AFC

 

[Dirty Dog]

The Eagles won the Super Bowl with weapons, just sayin'

Maybe we get Hendrickson out of this although I dont see Brown trading with AFC

And Hurts also isn’t in the same tier as Allen. I’m not saying having weapons is bad or means you aren’t a top tier franchise QB. My point is that a true franchise QB can put the whole offense on his back and win consistently. Hurts definitely isn’t that. Burrow might be, but he’s always had incredible weapons to share the burden so I don’t know. Until I see Burrow do that, I don’t have him in the same tier as Allen.

 

[Jim Bob]

The Eagles won the Super Bowl with weapons, just sayin'

Maybe we get Hendrickson out of this although I dont see Brown trading with AFC

The cap hits for AJ Brown and DeVonta Adams total roughly $25M in 2025.

It won't shock me if Chase & Higgins are over $40M against the cap in 2025.

 

[Der Jaeger]

uhh, he's been to a Super Bowl and won a National Championship too so lets be a little careful about the snide.

2019 LSU is getting consideration as one of the top 10 CFB teams of all time. They were stacked.

The Eagles won the Super Bowl with weapons, just sayin'

Maybe we get Hendrickson out of this although I dont see Brown trading with AFC

When you have an elite, established franchise QB, you shouldn’t need elite receivers all around you.

Hurts is a tier or two below Allen and Burrow, Super Bowl win or not.

Plenty of less than elite QBs win Super Bowls. It just doesn’t happen often.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

The cap hits for AJ Brown and DeVonta Adams total roughly $25M in 2025.

It won't shock me if Chase & Higgins are over $40M against the cap in 2025.

2019 LSU is getting consideration as one of the top 10 CFB teams of all time. They were stacked.

When you have an elite, established franchise QB, you shouldn’t need elite receivers all around you.

Hurts is a tier or two below Allen and Burrow, Super Bowl win or not.

Plenty of less than elite QBs win Super Bowls. It just doesn’t happen often.

Until Josh gets to the big game and even perhaps wins one the narrative is bit shaky.

If you go the next 3 years and still do not pass the Chiefs/make the SB, does that narrative change to adding high end talent for Josh when he's 30? Sort of depends on what happens with the D as well a bit I guess.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Until Josh gets to the big game and even perhaps wins one the narrative is bit shaky.

If you go the next 3 years and still do not pass the Chiefs/make the SB, does that narrative change to adding high end talent for Josh when he's 30? Sort of depends on what happens with the D as well a bit I guess.

Peyton Manning has the best weapons of any NFL offense arguably ever. He still couldn’t get past the Pats for years, even with Brady throwing to Lake Dawson as one of his starting receivers. His best receiver was Deion Branch during the early 2000s. But the Pats had a better defense.

Did that diminish Manning?

I’d take Dan Marino all day over almost any QB ever and he lost one Super Bowl.

It’s a team thing. Allen has been lights out in the playoffs.

 

[Jim Bob]

Until Josh gets to the big game and even perhaps wins one the narrative is bit shaky.

If you go the next 3 years and still do not pass the Chiefs/make the SB, does that narrative change to adding high end talent for Josh when he's 30? Sort of depends on what happens with the D as well a bit I guess.

The losses to KC have been waaaaaaay more about the defense not even slowing down Mahomes in the playoffs than not having a big time WR1.

Heck, they had Diggs for all of the playoff disappointments before last year.

 

[Krieger Bot]

The thing is, a lot of the moves they have made so far fit with their priors when it comes to roster construction.

We shall see...

And I am all aboard the Draft Grant train, FWIW.

[I know that's not worth anything]

I’ll be the contrarian and say that I actively hope they don’t draft a big run plugger to start opposite Oliver. To me, that very much feels like trying to force a square peg into a found hole (much like Lotulelei and Elam).

At the end of the day, the Bills like guys on the DI who can penetrate and get into the backfield. They also like fast linebackers who can cover. And they compensate for this lack of size in the front 6 by having physical safeties and a physical nickel corner who are aggressive and attack the box. This approach has worked just fine for them over the years, and I don’t see why they would deviate from it. Nor do I expect them to do so. As a result, I just don’t think a big run stuffer type will ever be an ideal starter next to Oliver in our defense.

That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bills were trying to become more multiple on defense. The Hoecht signing in particular suggests that they may run more odd fronts this year to keep opposing offenses off balance. I could see them add a proper NT type to fit that alignment. But I would expect that player’s usage to be more in line with the Linval Joseph snap counts that were posted earlier – not with how we use Daquan. That role could be filled by a mid-round pick (Caldwell) or a cheap vet in free agency (Joseph).

 

[Krieger Bot]

I wouldn’t think of Hoecht as an edge. He will play there, sure. But also at DT and LB. If they signed him just to be a rushing down DE, that strikes me as a serious mismatch of his skill set.

If there is a DE they like early, they will take him. Players like Solomon (who couldn’t even get on the field) and Epenesa (who they like but struggled mightily down the stretch) won’t preclude that.

If I had to guess how the bills use their top 3 picks, it would be one each at DT, DE, and CB, with S and WR also in play.

The defense needs good players. With their various signings, they’ve positioned themselves to where they don’t have to shoehorn in any one position and can attack talent.

A couple thoughts:

• I wouldn’t expect Hoecht to take any meaningful snaps at DT. Per PFF, he hasn’t lined up in either the A or the B gap in over 2 years. He also only took 2 snaps lined up over tackle last year, and is over 20 pounds lighter than our next lightest DI.
  
  I tend to think of him as primarily being an edge defender. Sometimes he’ll line up with his hand in the dirt. Sometimes he’ll be standing up. And 1 out of about every 4 or 5 plays, he’ll drop into coverage so we can blitz someone else instead and keep offenses off balance.
  
  
• They really should spend a couple early picks on players to help the coverage unit IMO. That group needs a lot of work. The defense was 28th in EPA/dropback, and 28th in success rate against dropbacks last year. That’s despite posting pretty good pass rushing numbers (10th in pressure rate; 7th in hurry rate; 13th in knockdown rate; 9th best PFF pass rush grade – all while having the 6th lowest blitz percentage in the league). Their secondary just got shredded (2nd worst team coverage grade on PFF). Some of that was injuries. But some of it wasn’t. They need to make some heavy investments in coverage in the draft.
  
  
• They could add another edge defender if someone falls that they like. But I wouldn’t be surprised if they just added another Smoot/Toohill type in free agency and called it a day (or even decided to just give Solomon more reps, depending on how they feel about him). I’d imagine that, at full health, the thinking is to have Groot on the field for about 2/3 of our snaps, like he was last year. A Bosa/Hoecht tandem is opposite him, splitting the snaps about 50/50 (which is also in line with how they were used last year). Then, Epenesa mops up the rest, getting on the field about 1/3 of the time (which is more in line with how he was used prior to last year, when he was more effective).* It would help to have another edge defender to eat some snaps while Hoecht is out, and to otherwise be available for injuries. And while the role could be filled by a draft pick (especially if someone falls that they really like), I could just as easily see it filled by a journeyman vet type in free agency (or Solomon).
  
  *One caveat – Epenesa’s cap hit is pretty high to only be playing about 30-35% of our snaps. I don’t know what the post-free agency cap situation looks like yet, but it wouldn’t totally shock me if he was a cut candidate. Especially if they find someone in the draft to eat his snaps on a rookie deal instead.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

It’s a team thing. Allen has been lights out in the playoffs.

The losses to KC have been waaaaaaay more about the defense not even slowing down Mahomes in the playoffs than not having a big time WR1.

Heck, they had Diggs for all of the playoff disappointments before last year.

That's why I brought up the point about the D.

 

[Krieger Bot]

Details on Bernard’s contract are out, and it’s very team friendly. Example #1 million of why you should wait until the contract details are out before being concerned about the cost.

His cap hit is just $2.5 mil this year, and $5.5 mil the next. And while it balloons to $11m in year 3, the dead cap number is only $3.6 million if the Bills want to cut him.

Put differently, it’s basically just a 1 year extension at $5.5 mil, then a team option the Bills can exercise in the event Bernard turns into a pro bowler at some point in the next 2 years. Smart deal. Much better than what I was fearing when 4 years and $40m was announced.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

A couple thoughts:

• I wouldn’t expect Hoecht to take any meaningful snaps at DT. Per PFF, he hasn’t lined up in either the A or the B gap in over 2 years. He also only took 2 snaps lined up over tackle last year, and is over 20 pounds lighter than our next lightest DI.
  
  I tend to think of him as primarily being an edge defender. Sometimes he’ll line up with his hand in the dirt. Sometimes he’ll be standing up. And 1 out of about every 4 or 5 plays, he’ll drop into coverage so we can blitz someone else instead and keep offenses off balance.
  
  
• They really should spend a couple early picks on players to help the coverage unit IMO. That group needs a lot of work. The defense was 28th in EPA/dropback, and 28th in success rate against dropbacks last year. That’s despite posting pretty good pass rushing numbers (10th in pressure rate; 7th in hurry rate; 13th in knockdown rate; 9th best PFF pass rush grade – all while having the 6th lowest blitz percentage in the league). Their secondary just got shredded (2nd worst team coverage grade on PFF). Some of that was injuries. But some of it wasn’t. They need to make some heavy investments in coverage in the draft.
  
  
• They could add another edge defender if someone falls that they like. But I wouldn’t be surprised if they just added another Smoot/Toohill type in free agency and called it a day (or even decided to just give Solomon more reps, depending on how they feel about him). I’d imagine that, at full health, the thinking is to have Groot on the field for about 2/3 of our snaps, like he was last year. A Bosa/Hoecht tandem is opposite him, splitting the snaps about 50/50 (which is also in line with how they were used last year). Then, Epenesa mops up the rest, getting on the field about 1/3 of the time (which is more in line with how he was used prior to last year, when he was more effective).* It would help to have another edge defender to eat some snaps while Hoecht is out, and to otherwise be available for injuries. And while the role could be filled by a draft pick (especially if someone falls that they really like), I could just as easily see it filled by a journeyman vet type in free agency (or Solomon).
  
  *One caveat – Epenesa’s cap hit is pretty high to only be playing about 30-35% of our snaps. I don’t know what the post-free agency cap situation looks like yet, but it wouldn’t totally shock me if he was a cut candidate. Especially if they find someone in the draft to eat his snaps on a rookie deal instead.

Too bad Campbell hates cold weather, he would fill/fit in well I think.

 

[Jim Bob]

I’ll be the contrarian and say that I actively hope they don’t draft a big run plugger to start opposite Oliver. To me, that very much feels like trying to force a square peg into a found hole (much like Lotulelei and Elam).

At the end of the day, the Bills like guys on the DI who can penetrate and get into the backfield. They also like fast linebackers who can cover. And they compensate for this lack of size in the front 6 by having physical safeties and a physical nickel corner who are aggressive and attack the box. This approach has worked just fine for them over the years, and I don’t see why they would deviate from it. Nor do I expect them to do so. As a result, I just don’t think a big run stuffer type will ever be an ideal starter next to Oliver in our defense.

That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bills were trying to become more multiple on defense. The Hoecht signing in particular suggests that they may run more odd fronts this year to keep opposing offenses off balance. I could see them add a proper NT type to fit that alignment. But I would expect that player’s usage to be more in line with the Linval Joseph snap counts that were posted earlier – not with how we use Daquan. That role could be filled by a mid-round pick (Caldwell) or a cheap vet in free agency (Joseph).

DaQuon Jones is listed at 6'4" 320 and he does play a bit more of a penetrating style than a lot of NTs do.

Kenneth Grant is 6'4" 331 and is the guy that a lot of Bills fans would love at 30, or after a move up.

I have seen some people say that Oregon DT Derrick Harmon, who is 6'4" 313, might be more of a "Bills guy" in the DaQuan mold.

But, I do think Grant plays more athletically and might be a fit than your average 330+ DT.

So, it will be interesting to see both who is there in the 25-35 range and who the Bills like. Fans that want a bigger DT next to Oliver might want guys like Grant, Tyliek Williams, Alfred Collins, and Deone Walker. But, I am not sure they are the type of DT that fits with what the Bills like.

I also think that a bigger, run stuffing DT that can play two gaps could help the undersized second level the Bills have with Bernard, Milano, and Taron.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

 

[Jim Bob]

Not surprised.

The Bosa signing seemed to me to be driven by Beane finding out he couldn't trade for Garrett, Crosby, or Hendrickson, and having to move on to the FA market to try and fill the need.