Buffalo Bills The offseason begins

I mean, the Chiefs team is designed to win close games by keeping the ball.

It was a pretty terribly called game by the offensive coordinator for the Chiefs. I am pretty sure this was a 'Trying to be the smartest guy in the room' f*** up by them. They came out pass, pass, pass as a tendency breaker to try to catch the eagles off guard. And the offensive/defensive line mismatch just ate them up. The pick six was really the end of the game. They simply don't have the horses for a big comeback against a good defense.

Also, it should be noted that they basically put everything they had into beating the bills in the AFCCG. Basically an entirely new playbook.

I think they tried the same thing against the Eagles and they simply didn't have time to make anything work and they didn't know the playbook well enough for the 2nd/3rd reads to be reliable. The eagles made them one dimensional in the second half and they don't have the O-line or Skill players to make it work anymore.

The Chiefs still have an elite defense....the offense just imploded.
The O needed a lot of help to get here and they were same o

Philly put more pressure on .mahomes than us kudos. although didn't really watch much.. but what little I saw and heard..and seemed very few flags to bail out Kermit and crew
 
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All these Vet WR's (Kupp, Samuel, Cooper, etc) and their agents are scrambling to get ahead of the line for the offseason imo.
This offseason will be interesting.

Personally, I think that the fact that they went with a room full of team first guys in the WR room, TE room, and RB room and Josh Allen had his most efficient season of his career was not an accident.

While there will be plenty of fans and media that are once again stumping for a WR1, I don't think that is the best approach to tweaking the offense.

They have been keeping 5 WRs over the past few years. I don't know how many people proposed keeping 6 WRs last offseason. And it didn't happen. Again.

So, I think the expectation should be that they keep 5 WRs on the 53 man roster again in 2025.

They have 3 guys under contract for 2025: Shakir, Coleman, and Samuel. I don't expect them to walk away from any of the three.

Mack Hollins is firmly a "re-sign unless the money is stupid" guy for almost everyone this offseason as WR5/STs guy/locker room glue guy.

That 5th spot should go to a speed and/or separation WR that can win on the boundary, IMO. The only guy that I am open-minded about that doesn't fit that description is if Amari Cooper is willing to re-sign to a team friendly deal and see what can happen with a full offseason and developing more chemistry with Josh.
 
The bills had the best offense in the nfl. Other than replacing or re-signing cooper, and trying to add a cheap speed element, I can’t phantom dedicating resources to that side of the ball while the defense is such a disaster.

The defense certainly wasn’t a disaster. By any metric. Or anything close to half a disaster. But it certainly has more room for improvement
 
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The bills had the best offense in the nfl. Other than replacing or re-signing cooper, and trying to add a cheap speed element, I can’t phantom dedicating resources to that side of the ball while the defense is such a disaster.
Here is a position by position heading into the offseason starting point for me:

QB: Josh Allen, Mitch Trubisky, Mike White, and Shane Buechele are all signed for 2025.The only questions here are who will be the backup and who will be the PS QB in 2025?And will this be the offseason that Josh Allen gets his deal re-done?

RB: James Cook, Ray Davis, and Frank Gore, Jr are signed for 2025.The two questions here are will they re-sign Ty Johnson to be the 3rd down RB? And will they extend James Cook?

WR: Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir, and Keon Coleman are signed for 2025.The two questions here are will they re-sign Mack Hollins? And who is the 5th WR to start the season in the Amari Cooper/MVS spot?

TE/FB: Dawson Knox, Dalton Kincaid, and Zach Davidson are all signed for 2025.The two questions here are will they re-sign FB/STs ace Reggie Gilliam? And how long will it take to re-sign RFA TE Quintin Morris?

OL: The only OL that played in 2025 that is not signed today is Alec Anderson. And Anderson is an Exclusive Rights FA.So, the only questions here are how long will it take to sign Anderson and can the OL stay as healthy in 2025 as they have been in 2024 & 2023.

There are really only 3 spots on offense that are open heading into the offseason: the 2 WR spots and the 3rd down RB spot.

And two of them could be filled by bringing back Ty Johnson and Mack Hollins.

DL: There are way more questions than answers on the DL. Do they cut Von Miller? Do they extend Greg Rousseau? Do they pull off a huge trade for an impact edge rusher like Maxx Crosby or Trey Hendrickson? How can they improve at DT?

LB: From a signed players POV, LB is much like QB and OL in that most of the guys you expect back are already signed in Milano, Bernard, Williams, Andreessen, Spector, & Ulofoshio.The only questions here are about a potential Bernard extension and Milano's health and effectiveness.

CB: This is another interesting position. They have a cornerstone CB in Christian Benford who is another extension candidate entering the final year of his rookie deal in 2025.Taron Johnson at NCB is a high level starter, too.After that, it's all questions...

S: Taylor Rapp and Cole Bishop are signed for 2025. As is Dime S and utility DB Cam Lewis.The questions here are whether Damar Hamlin re-signs to a team-friendly deal or not. And if not, who their 3rd safety will be given Rapp & Bishop getting hurt a lot.

LB is set on defense. After that, there are questions all over the place up front and on the back end.
 
I'm content with the offensive structure of the team, I feel where they need improvement is actually in their play-calling, and working at times of layering routes and getting guys open in space especially with their 1st 15 plays. It feels like Brady really struggles in game-planning for an opponent and he really struggles vs competent defensive coordinators. Too many times the offense didn't start fast/on-time.

Their defense, I feel needs to get bigger, and quicker to a guy/position. They are perfectly fine with matching up and being able to survive the lesser teams in the league, but their strongest competition, I feel they are just a bad matchup to everybody which is weird considering the differences/strengths of each quality opponent. Our defense feels like a unit that just doesn't have an advantage against anybody.

I'm not trying to say that we are horrible, but the level of the roster feels like a 7/10 on defense, and doesn't come through with the necessary stops from their own play. Too many times it feels like we need to rely on the other good teams to make a mistake for us to have a chance. When you face better and better teams, those mistakes come less and less.
 
Here is a position by position heading into the offseason starting point for me:

QB: Josh Allen, Mitch Trubisky, Mike White, and Shane Buechele are all signed for 2025.The only questions here are who will be the backup and who will be the PS QB in 2025?And will this be the offseason that Josh Allen gets his deal re-done?

RB: James Cook, Ray Davis, and Frank Gore, Jr are signed for 2025.The two questions here are will they re-sign Ty Johnson to be the 3rd down RB? And will they extend James Cook?

WR: Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir, and Keon Coleman are signed for 2025.The two questions here are will they re-sign Mack Hollins? And who is the 5th WR to start the season in the Amari Cooper/MVS spot?

TE/FB: Dawson Knox, Dalton Kincaid, and Zach Davidson are all signed for 2025.The two questions here are will they re-sign FB/STs ace Reggie Gilliam? And how long will it take to re-sign RFA TE Quintin Morris?

OL: The only OL that played in 2025 that is not signed today is Alec Anderson. And Anderson is an Exclusive Rights FA.So, the only questions here are how long will it take to sign Anderson and can the OL stay as healthy in 2025 as they have been in 2024 & 2023.

There are really only 3 spots on offense that are open heading into the offseason: the 2 WR spots and the 3rd down RB spot.

And two of them could be filled by bringing back Ty Johnson and Mack Hollins.

DL: There are way more questions than answers on the DL. Do they cut Von Miller? Do they extend Greg Rousseau? Do they pull off a huge trade for an impact edge rusher like Maxx Crosby or Trey Hendrickson? How can they improve at DT?

LB: From a signed players POV, LB is much like QB and OL in that most of the guys you expect back are already signed in Milano, Bernard, Williams, Andreessen, Spector, & Ulofoshio.The only questions here are about a potential Bernard extension and Milano's health and effectiveness.

CB: This is another interesting position. They have a cornerstone CB in Christian Benford who is another extension candidate entering the final year of his rookie deal in 2025.Taron Johnson at NCB is a high level starter, too.After that, it's all questions...

S: Taylor Rapp and Cole Bishop are signed for 2025. As is Dime S and utility DB Cam Lewis.The questions here are whether Damar Hamlin re-signs to a team-friendly deal or not. And if not, who their 3rd safety will be given Rapp & Bishop getting hurt a lot.

LB is set on defense. After that, there are questions all over the place up front and on the back end.
Some notes on various positions:

QB: Mitch is most certainly either getting cut or taking a paycut down to very cheap. No way he gets brought back at that cap hit.
RB: I think they resign Ty, they clearly like him. I'd also use a day 3 pick on a RB, not because they need one, but because it's an amazing RB class so I want a piece of that just for the value. Will provide nice insurance against a possible Cook walk.
WR: I'd like to re-sign Mack, add a vet FA to fill the Amari role, and draft a receiver on day 3, preferably someone with serious speed. If you want the speed from the FA signing, Tutu Atwell is interesting.
TE/FB: I'm sure both will be back, but personally I'd love to see Morris's spot go to a punishing in-line blocker instead of a big converted WR in Morris.

DL: I pour most of our resources here. At least 2, if not 3, of our top 3 picks.
LB: I could see them bringing Dodson back for depth. I'd like to draft a blitz specialist to diversify. Otherwise I don't see much happening here.
CB: A lot of questions but if there's one position I trust McDermott to get the most out of lesser talent, it's this one.
S: Hamlin I expect to walk or come back for depth money. I do worry Rapp is a bigger issue than many consider. He's not awful, but he's only average, and I think McDermott's defense needs better than average at S. Also, he plays SS, which is where you want Bishop. I'd love if they could find a center field type FS. Maybe there's a diamond in the rough they can uncover like Poyer/Hyde. If Starks falls in the draft because of position devaluation he's pretty much the only non-DL I'd take high.
 
Some notes on various positions:

QB: Mitch is most certainly either getting cut or taking a paycut down to very cheap. No way he gets brought back at that cap hit.
RB: I think they resign Ty, they clearly like him. I'd also use a day 3 pick on a RB, not because they need one, but because it's an amazing RB class so I want a piece of that just for the value. Will provide nice insurance against a possible Cook walk.
WR: I'd like to re-sign Mack, add a vet FA to fill the Amari role, and draft a receiver on day 3, preferably someone with serious speed. If you want the speed from the FA signing, Tutu Atwell is interesting.

TE/FB: I'm sure both will be back, but personally I'd love to see Morris's spot go to a punishing in-line blocker instead of a big converted WR in Morris.

DL: I pour most of our resources here. At least 2, if not 3, of our top 3 picks.
LB: I could see them bringing Dodson back for depth. I'd like to draft a blitz specialist to diversify. Otherwise I don't see much happening here.
CB: A lot of questions but if there's one position I trust McDermott to get the most out of lesser talent, it's this one.
S: Hamlin I expect to walk or come back for depth money. I do worry Rapp is a bigger issue than many consider. He's not awful, but he's only average, and I think McDermott's defense needs better than average at S. Also, he plays SS, which is where you want Bishop. I'd love if they could find a center field type FS. Maybe there's a diamond in the rough they can uncover like Poyer/Hyde. If Starks falls in the draft because of position devaluation he's pretty much the only non-DL I'd take high.
I expect them to keep 3 RBs and 5 WRs. So, if those spots are filled before the draft, I would be surprised if they took multiple guys with no real path to the roster and would be PS only guys unless it was in the 6th/7th round range.

And I want a much more talented WR than Tutu Atwell. Atwell would be a lottery ticket camp body guy and not someone that I want to count on being a top 3-4 WR on the roster next year.
 
I expect them to keep 3 RBs and 5 WRs. So, if those spots are filled before the draft, I would be surprised if they took multiple guys with no real path to the roster and would be PS only guys unless it was in the 6th/7th round range.

And I want a much more talented WR than Tutu Atwell. Atwell would be a lottery ticket camp body guy and not someone that I want to count on being a top 3-4 WR on the roster next year.
Anyone you have in mind? I fear that anyone decent is going to be really expensive. Look at how much Curtis Samuel cost
 
The bills had the best offense in the nfl. Other than replacing or re-signing cooper, and trying to add a cheap speed element, I can’t phantom dedicating resources to that side of the ball while the defense is such a disaster.

The Bills did not have the best offense in the NFL. Not by any metric.

Our point total is inflated by the insane turnover ratio, which isn't likely repeatable.

Probably top 5, definitely top 10. You look at the Lions, Ravens, and Bengals I think they'd all rate a bit higher

We have a very good offense, an above average defense, and a meh special teams unit.

While I think we need less work on offense than on defense, I definitely feel there is room to grow there.
 
This game, like so many playoff games, was won in the trenches and in the turnover battle.

The Chiefs did a good job limiting Saquon and they were good on 3rd & 4th down (Philly was 3/12 on 3rd down and 0/1 on 4th down). But, they lost the turnover battle 3 to 1 and the Time of Possession battle 36:58-23:02.

The Chiefs only gave up one long, sustained TD drive. And that was the start of the game.

After that, it was the 2 play, 14 yard drive after the INT late in the 2nd quarter and the 1 play 46 yard drive with the big pass play to Smith.

The Eagles had 3 long, time consuming drives that stalled out and ended in FGs. Those three drives had over 16 minutes in time of possession.

I think it was crazy how dominant the Eagles defense was. The fact that this game was 40-6 with 5 minutes to go is insane.
I mean, yes and no. They were the beneficiaries of repeated turnovers and bad plays by the chiefs.

Their offense in the first half had 170 yards, and three scoring drives (one of which was a 15 yard drive). Half of their possessions were punts or turnovers. But their offense stepped on the gas in the second half once it was a 24 point lead.

Like any blowout in the NFL, it was a bit of an anomaly and you can’t take much from it
Sort of to both. You've got to do some things to make this strategy work. Reid scripts his first 16 plays, and both Reid and Spagnuolo make the best adjustments of any coordinator in the league.

The Eagles got a tad lucky with their first drive, clearly looked at some historical game film, and got aided by some anomalies from the Chiefs.

Eagles first drive was 6 plays, 2 rushes and 4 passes (1 Hurts scramble). The Chiefs got aided by the ticky tack offensive pass interference. They punted.

Chiefs first drive was 4 passes and they punted after a first down. Mahomes went 2-4, missing Kelce and Brown on the last two plays. They punted. The Eagles avoided what could've been a 7-0 hole - Reid historically does that to teams.

Eagles second possession was a touchdown aided by the phantom unnecessary roughness. 5 rushes and 3 passes. 7-0 Eagles.

Second Chiefs drive was a 3 and out, with one run. Chiefs have now called 7 passes and one run in their first two drives, with one first down. Eagles have not sacked Mahomes yet.

Eagles third drive: 6 passes and 6 runs. Ends with Hurts interception.

Chiefs third drive: 3 passes. 3 and out. Chiefs have now called 10 passes and 1 run. Eagles have still not sacked Mahomes. Chiefs punt.

Eagles 4th drive. 3 rushes, 3 passes (1 Hurts scramble). 48-yard field goal. 10-0 Eagles. Eagles have called 16 runs and passed 16 times.

Chiefs 4th drive: the Chiefs entered the drive calling 10 passes and a run. The 12th scripted play was a pass and Mahomes was sacked for the first time. The 13th scripted play was a pass and Mahomes was sacked for the second time. The 15th scripted play was a pass and Mahomes was intercepted for a TD by DeJean. 17-0 Eagles.

At the 17-0 point, Reid called 14 passes in his first 15 plays. That's crazy. On the drive where DeJean made the interception, the Eagles were already teeing off on Mahomes, but they weren't being crazy about it. The ends were driving outside in to prevent Mahomes breaking the pocket, and the DTs were pushing hard. No blitzing (the first Eagles blitz came with 4 minutes left in the game). This is the exact same strategy Spagnuolo used against Brady. 4-man pressure but the main part of the pressure was in Brady's face. Same as Mahomes. The ends got there but it was through disciplined rushing, and the Chiefs OTs aren't good.

Chiefs 5th drive: 2 rushes and a pass, 3-0 punt. Mahomes sacked again on 3rd and 9, obvious passing down. Reid's first 16 plays were 14 passes and 2 runs.

Eagles 5th drive: 4 rushes, 4 passes, holding penalty short circuits the drive. Eagles are now at 21 runs and 19 passes. The punt to the KC 6.

Chiefs 6th drive: first play was a pass, pressure on Mahomes, intercepted by Baun.

Eagles 6th drive: one run and a TD pass to Brown: 24-0 Eagles.

Chiefs 7th drive: starts with a pass but Mahomes scrambled so it counts as a run. 3 more passes and KC punts. KC is now 18 called passes and 2 runs.

Eagles 7th drive: Eagles run and then let the clock run out. End of the half.

Chiefs 8th drive: starts with a run, 3 called passes where Mahomes is sacked twice. Then Mahomes scrambles on a called pass. Chiefs punt. 22 called passes and 3 runs.

Eagles 9th drive: 4 passes, 7 rushes (two were scrambles by Hurts), FG, 27-0 Eagles.

Chiefs 10th drive: Pass, rush (fumble recovery by Chiefs), pass where Mahomes fumbles but recovers. Rush, two passes with the 4th down pass break up by Maddox. 4 called passes (Mahomes fumbled on a scramble) and 2 runs. The Chiefs count is now 26 passes to 5 runs.

Eagles 10th drive: dagger TD to Smith, Eagles, 33-0. Ball game. Eagles 28 called runs and 27 called passes.

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I don't know what Reid saw in the Eagles defense, but he wanted no part of running the ball. I suspect it was Carter, Davis, Baun, etc in the middle of the defense. But I don't know for sure. What I do know from watching was the Eagles used a very similar rush technique to what the Giants did to Brady twice, which emphasized middle pressure with outside rushers maintaining integrity. So Mahomes was stepping up into the pressure when the DEs got close to him. The back end for the Eagle mixed man and zone, and didn't blitz until 4 minutes left in the 4th quarter, when the game was over. Fangio stayed in two high safeties almost all game, and mixed man and zone underneath. This is not a very far departure to what McDermott does. In an alternative universe where McDermott got fired and went to Philly as the DC, this would be really close to what he would've called.

The Chiefs went one-dimensional, and the Eagles completely took advantage. The different between the Eagles and the Bills is that the Eagles played the pass but their front 4 was so good that the Chiefs didn't run. Again, look at the defensive line.

The Eagle kept balanced on offense and made the Chiefs play honest. The Chiefs took away Barkley but couldn't stop the pass. They took their shots but played a pretty diverse passing game. Hurts was over 50% in attempting passes shorter than 10 yards, with YAC factoring in. The Eagles stayed balanced and allowed their offensive line to take over the game. Even so, the Chiefs stopped Barkley. Hurts made them pay with scrambling and with passing, even with the interception. This is also not a far departure from the Bills and what Brady do.

I said it in a short post before, but I don't see the Bills as being far off. Imagine getting Garrett and using draft picks on DTs. Most of what the Eagles do, the Bills also do. And get Reid to slip back into Eagles Andy Reid and get pass happy.
 
The Bills did not have the best offense in the NFL. Not by any metric.

Our point total is inflated by the insane turnover ratio, which isn't likely repeatable.

Probably top 5, definitely top 10. You look at the Lions, Ravens, and Bengals I think they'd all rate a bit higher

We have a very good offense, an above average defense, and a meh special teams unit.

While I think we need less work on offense than on defense, I definitely feel there is room to grow there.
Buffalo finished the year 2nd in offensive DVOA, behind only Baltimore. But overall your feeling corresponds pretty closely with DVOA. The defense was 11th and the special teams was 28th.

Detroit benefited overall from the defense the same way we did, and also had the #1 special teams. Cincinnati was almost completely one dimensional resulting in a lot of sacks (48 on Burrow) and negative plays and Burrow/Chase can't quite make up that difference. They ended up 5th offensively.
 
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3 round mock from The Athletic.

30. Buffalo Bills, Jahdae Barron, DB, Texas​

One of my favorite players in the class, Barron could come off the board before Starks and it wouldn’t be a huge shock. Barron might not blow anyone away with his testing, but he has the potential to be this draft’s version of Brian Branch — a do-it-all defender who can make plays at safety, outside corner or in the slot, so long as you’ve got a plan for him.
Notables on the board: DT Tyleik Williams, CB Shavon Revel Jr,

56. Buffalo Bills (from MIN): Jack Bech, WR, TCU​

The best story from the Senior Bowl, Bech’s on-field performance in Mobile, Ala., was reminiscent of what Puka Nacua did at the event a few years ago. Bech took the long way to get here, but he’s reminded scouts and GMs exactly who he is — and why he could land in Round 2.

62. Buffalo Bills: T.J. Sanders, DT, South Carolina​

Notable on the board: DT Deone Walker


I wouldn't hate the way this went......................IF we address the pass-rush via trade or free agency. Not taking a DE in the first 2 rounds strikes me as a mistake otherwise.
 

3 round mock from The Athletic.


Notables on the board: DT Tyleik Williams, CB Shavon Revel Jr,



Notable on the board: DT Deone Walker


I wouldn't hate the way this went......................IF we address the pass-rush via trade or free agency. Not taking a DE in the first 2 rounds strikes me as a mistake otherwise.

Im typically a need moaaarrr speed. Get a top WR, somehow.

Not this year. I'd prefer DT/DL/CB with our top 3 picks. If anything Sign Cooper and run it back with the same WR group. Or go get your Hollywood Brown type from the somewhat bargain bin. I'd be fine with shuffling some picks around and grabing a WR in the late 3rd or 4th by moving up after splurging on D. But man do we need to hit on the D line picks.

I'd also prefer a mid/late round pick on the OL. Someone we can develop, no pressure to start, get used to Allen and the synergy up front in practice that can step in for injury and at worst case be ready in 2026 to start. I'd prefer that over a RB.

Edit: Cooper Dejean, a rookie, with a pick 6 against Pat Mahomes in the SB on Cooper's BIRTHDAY is insane. Wish we had this guy!!!
 

3 round mock from The Athletic.


Notables on the board: DT Tyleik Williams, CB Shavon Revel Jr,



Notable on the board: DT Deone Walker


I wouldn't hate the way this went......................IF we address the pass-rush via trade or free agency. Not taking a DE in the first 2 rounds strikes me as a mistake otherwise.
They way that mock shook out, I would've taking Tyleik Williams in the 1st, Walker at 56 and Kyle Kennard at 62. Each writer mock goes off the board another writer sets (Brugler for the Athletic). So it'll differ. But I like all three of those player. Probably also means Buffalo would need to look at someone like Slayton or Brown as a speed receiver option.

I'm skeptical Walker is there at 56. Jordan Phillips of Maryland might be the pick.
 
Anyone you have in mind? I fear that anyone decent is going to be really expensive. Look at how much Curtis Samuel cost
The UFA market is not great for WR.

For me, Amari Cooper on a team friendly deal is probably the best veteran option and the one that is the most likely to have a sizable impact in 2025 given that he already has some time on task in the offense and with Josh. And they know he's a culture fit.

Beyond that, it is look for the speedy guys in the draft for me.


There are a handful of speed guys that they could look at to add speed to the WR room.

We shall see what they actually do...
 
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Im typically a need moaaarrr speed. Get a top WR, somehow.

Not this year. I'd prefer DT/DL/CB with our top 3 picks. If anything Sign Cooper and run it back with the same WR group. Or go get your Hollywood Brown type from the somewhat bargain bin. I'd be fine with shuffling some picks around and grabing a WR in the late 3rd or 4th by moving up after splurging on D. But man do we need to hit on the D line picks.

I'd also prefer a mid/late round pick on the OL. Someone we can develop, no pressure to start, get used to Allen and the synergy up front in practice that can step in for injury and at worst case be ready in 2026 to start. I'd prefer that over a RB.

Edit: Cooper Dejean, a rookie, with a pick 6 against Pat Mahomes in the SB on Cooper's BIRTHDAY is insane. Wish we had this guy!!!
Saquon and Cooper celebrated their birthdays, by winning the SB...Talk about a day to remember.
 

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