Buffalo Bills The offseason begins

[ValJamesDuex]

Beane Post Season Press Conference (full)

 

[Selanne00008]

Report: Mike McCarthy won't coach in 2025

McCarthy removes name from consideration for Saints' head-coaching job.

www.nbcsports.com

If the Bills take a sizable step back next year, I think the Mike McCarthy to Buffalo talk could heat up.

Ive learned that with Josh, there is no step back. I am 100% confident the bills win the AFC east for years to come. Who are we concerned about? Tua and Tyreek? No. Rodgers and the shit show the jets produce? no. Pats have 100++ million in cap and maybe Maye is good? But enough to slay the Bills? Nope.

Short of one of these teams drafting the next Jayden Daniels, we are winning the east.

I wanted to boycott the SB, but at this point, the regular season is nearly pointless. Divisional round, then I'll start watching.

Yes yes I know, any given Sunday. look what happened to the Niners. I just don't see it with the AFC East.

 

[Selanne00008]

Ok here's my first stab at a preliminary offseason plan because this is how I cope:

Note: I'm using spotrac, which currently has us 2.5 over the cap, not OTC, which has us 7.4 over, because of it's roster tool, even though I find OTC more reliable with numbers.

Cuts

• Von Miller: This is a no brainer and was always the plan. Him finding relevance as a pass rush specialist was nice, but not worth the huge cap hit. Getting out from under this with 8 million saved and nothing on the books in 2026 is the obvious move.
• Trubisky: He was never going to play on his over 3 million cap hit. Saves 2.5. If he doesn't land somewhere he can come back for cheap to compete with Mike White for the job.
• Epenesa: He's not guaranteed much, so I hope they can force a pay cut to save some money. But if he won't take one, 3.3 in savings looks nice to me.
• Daquan Jones: He's been a nice piece, but regressed a lot this year and is owed a decent chunk of change this year and with a void next year. I designate him a post June 1 cut which opens up about 5 million on June 1 (rookie money) and keeps a similar cap hit next year to what the void was going to cost anyway.
• I'd happily trade Elam or Samuel if anyone would take them off our hands for cap relief on their guaranteed salaries, but it's not happening. We're stuck with them.

Cap space is now about +12 million, with 5 million in reserve for June 1

Restructures and Extensions

• New Allen contract: 300 over 5 years or something huge, but which lowers his current cap hit by about 10 million.
• Oliver full base conversion, opens up about 10 million more in cap space
• McGovern extension: Saves a couple million
• Edwards one year extension: Saves a couple million
• Knox extension / paycut with more guarantees: Saves about 6 million
• Bernard, Benford, and Shakir big boy extensions, which don't save much, maybe 5 million total
• Cook extension, saves 3 million

Cap space is now at about 39 million, without needing a huge reserve for rookies because of the DJ money coming

Resignings

• Mack Hollins: 2-3 year deal, let's say a 3 million hit this year
• Ty Johnson: 1-2 year deal, 3 million cap hit
• Gilliam, Reid, Van Denmark, Alec Anderson, Morris: Cheapish deals, lets say 6 million in cap space total

Cap space is down to about 31 million (because many of those details just replace similar top 51 deals)

Free Agents

• I'd like to sign a WR in the Cooper mold (older, good route runner, ok with limited snaps), but for cheaper than I expect Cooper will go for. I'm thinking in the 5-10 million range. Maybe Keenan Allen is an option coming off a bad year. Darius Slayton has been mentioned and is thought of as a high character guy. Diontae Johnson seems like a poor locker room fit at this point despite be loving his game.
• Julius Blackmon or a similar safety: Our safety room has a lot of guys that play well in the box and lacks more of a deep option, which is where Blackmon excels despite being able to do a bit of everything. He's still young and the Bills were interested before he returned to Indy on a one year deal last year. I'm sure there are similar options. ~5+ million cap hit.
• Baron Browning (edge): If the Bills take a swing on a DE, I want it to be a young pass rusher that has good underlying numbers but lacks productivity. These are the kind of guys that could pay off big bets in a new situation. Malcolm Koonce would be another name I'd throw out. Don't get me wrong, these guys won't be cheap for what they've done so far in their careers. But these are the kind of bets I would make.
• Calais Campbell: He's not the disruptive player he used to be, but he's still an elite interior DL run stuffer, and I think he would go a long way towards shoring up one of our biggest weaknesses

Draft

I haven't studied these players so this mock draft is mostly a testament to the approach I would take:

View attachment 969078

General feelings I have:

• Hammer defense and especially DL with our early picks
• Draft a receiver somewhere that's not late day 3
• Draft a RB on day 3
• Take a safety somewhere
• Take a corner somewhere
• Add some interior OL depth somewhere

You don't think Mack Hollins is worth more than that?

Just saw Cooper Kupp is not expected back in LA (Maybe just a random rumor). What's his market like you think at his age and injuries? I'd love that...

 

[Husko]

You don't think Mack Hollins is worth more than that?

Just saw Cooper Kupp is not expected back in LA (Maybe just a random rumor). What's his market like you think at his age and injuries? I'd love that...

He's never made 3 million in a single year. I suppose he could get a big contract somewhere, but "30 catches playing with Josh Allen" doesn't scream huge payday to me.

I could see something like 2-3 years with bigger numbers in years 2 and 3, but not guaranteed much. Maybe some incentives. He's talked before about liking to bet on himself. A contract like that would let him.

 

[Jim Bob]

Ive learned that with Josh, there is no step back. I am 100% confident the bills win the AFC east for years to come. Who are we concerned about? Tua and Tyreek? No. Rodgers and the shit show the jets produce? no. Pats have 100++ million in cap and maybe Maye is good? But enough to slay the Bills? Nope.

Short of one of these teams drafting the next Jayden Daniels, we are winning the east.

I wanted to boycott the SB, but at this point, the regular season is nearly pointless. Divisional round, then I'll start watching.

Yes yes I know, any given Sunday. look what happened to the Niners. I just don't see it with the AFC East.

I'm not predicting it happening. But, that is the one way that I foresee the "replace McD" talk to actually have some potential legs to it.

I am guessing that Pegula is just fine with McD winning the AFC East and winning at least one playoff game every year.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Husko]

If there is a defensive version of the Diggs trade, it's probably Crosby, not Hendrickson or Garrett. He's still only 27 and he's already on a big extension, wouldn't have to give him a new one. Inherited cap hits would be: 23 million in 2025 and 20 in 2026, could be even lower if you got Vegas to to concert some base to bonus before the trade. Could then potentially give him a new contract with lower cap hits at the beginning, if you wanted, for 2027+.

I'd probably trade our 1st or a 2nd+ for him. Maybe they'd even take Elam off our hands as part of it.

 

[Jim Bob]

If there is a defensive version of the Diggs trade, it's probably Crosby, not Hendrickson or Garrett. He's still only 27 and he's already on a big extension, wouldn't have to give him a new one. Inherited cap hits would be: 23 million in 2025 and 20 in 2026, could be even lower if you got Vegas to to concert some base to bonus before the trade. Could then potentially give him a new contract with lower cap hits at the beginning, if you wanted, for 2027+.

I'd probably trade our 1st or a 2nd+ for him. Maybe they'd even take Elam off our hands as part of it.

The Raiders are not big fans of doing that to help facilitate a trade.

And with Beane saying not to expect a splashy move on either side of the ball, I think the people hoping for a big trade for a DE are going to be disappointed this offseason.

 

[Husko]

The Raiders are not big fans of doing that to help facilitate a trade.

And with Beane saying not to expect a splashy move on either side of the ball, I think the people hoping for a big trade for a DE are going to be disappointed this offseason.

He said the same thing before signing Von, FWIW. I'm not expecting anything big, but you never know.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Jim Bob]

If Beane rolled up to the presser today in this hoodie...

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[ValJamesDuex]

McDermott Post Season Press Conference (full)

 

[stealth1]

I agree with this take from Beane.

Agreed they are more than one player away. What they need to do is start going after some elite play makers on both sides of the ball. They need to stop focusing so much on character guys. Who cares if they guy is a bit of a diva but can make plays you get him.

One thing IMO that needs a change is their defensive philosophy. It works great in the regular season but once again it failed in the playoffs. In all 3 playoff games the opposing offense scored a TD on the opening drive.
Baltimore and KC had no issue moving the ball all game long.

 

[Jim Bob]

Agreed they are more than one player away. What they need to do is start going after some elite play makers on both sides of the ball. They need to stop focusing so much on character guys. Who cares if they guy is a bit of a diva but can make plays you get him.

One thing IMO that needs a change is their defensive philosophy. It works great in the regular season but once again it failed in the playoffs. In all 3 playoff games the opposing offense scored a TD on the opening drive.
Baltimore and KC had no issue moving the ball all game long.

Biggest takeaways from Buffalo Bills GM end-of-season press conference

What will it take for Buffalo to get over the hump vs. the Chiefs?

www.newyorkupstate.com

Do Bills need game wrecker on defense?

Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones has been as impactful a player in the Bills-Chiefs playoff battles over the past five years as any player in the series. Asked if the Bills need a Chris Jones-like game-wrecker on defense, Beane joked that there aren’t many of those kinds of players floating around and available.

“I don’t know many teams that are going to hand you a Chris Jones or a game wrecker,” Beane said. “They’re probably sewed up, you know what I mean? You look around the league, there’s not a lot of players that make 28 to 30 some million dollars a year, which I think is kinda what those high end defensive players are making. We’re not ever picking in the top five, 10. Not to say you can never get those guys, Chris Jones actually fell to the second round, and we’ll turn over every stone we can to find them, but would I love to add one of those guys? Heck yeah, I would. But we have a cap. We pick where we pick.”

They need to draft and develop their early pick better. But, as they continue to draft at the bottom of the first round, it's hard to get elite playmakers.

But, they were a final four team in a reset year and over $70M in dead cap. I don't think they need big name, big money guys. They need to get a better in a few spots and then get the health luck and football luck that every team needs to advance in the playoffs.

And I completely disagree on the character piece. The change in the mood in the locker room because they removed some divas was a big part of the success this season. Keep that going.

 

[OkimLom]

Agreed they are more than one player away. What they need to do is start going after some elite play makers on both sides of the ball. They need to stop focusing so much on character guys. Who cares if they guy is a bit of a diva but can make plays you get him.

One thing IMO that needs a change is their defensive philosophy. It works great in the regular season but once again it failed in the playoffs. In all 3 playoff games the opposing offense scored a TD on the opening drive.
Baltimore and KC had no issue moving the ball all game long.

You want to build a defense of large/strong and fast players in the perfect scenario. But sometimes you have to settle with Small but fast players, or large/strong but average speed guys. What you don't want to do rely upon is small and average/slow players, and that's what Sean's D is composed of.

Improve each level of defense's speed by 30% and you'll have a defense that can hold their own in games.

 

[Jim Bob]

What is up with the AFC North?

 

[Husko]

Absolutely hate this.

 

[kirby11]

Agreed they are more than one player away. What they need to do is start going after some elite play makers on both sides of the ball. They need to stop focusing so much on character guys. Who cares if they guy is a bit of a diva but can make plays you get him.

One thing IMO that needs a change is their defensive philosophy. It works great in the regular season but once again it failed in the playoffs. In all 3 playoff games the opposing offense scored a TD on the opening drive.
Baltimore and KC had no issue moving the ball all game long.

I'd like them to bring in an older, experienced defensive mind as a consultant of sorts to get some fresh eyes/ideas in the building. The D both bends *and* breaks against high-level offenses too often for my liking, and Mahomes is consistently unstoppable and insanely efficient against us in the playoffs. Like, if we could ever get a slightly below average defensive game vs. KC instead of being trounced, we probably win.

 

[kirby11]

Absolutely hate this.

What dirt does this dude have on McDermott?

His unit is consistently unprepared for obvious stuff (DEN fake in the playoffs) and yields back-breaking/game-altering plays at an alarming rate. The only positives were more individual things--Bass rediscovering his mojo, Hollins making a couple plays as a gunner, Codrington coming in and immediately solidifying the punt return game--than aspects where you could point to Smiley's coaching as a major factor.

 

[Selanne00008]

If Beane rolled up to the presser today in this hoodie...

Would be hilarious. I'm not sure where I TRULY stand on any bias, or KC TRULY getting calls their way.

That being said, I have no qualms with bashing their dynasty with theories like this. I don't give a rats ass if it looks bad, salty, and KC players tell folks like me to kick rocks. If it helps tarnish their legacy I am ALL for it!

 

[ValJamesDuex]

I'd like them to bring in an older, experienced defensive mind as a consultant of sorts to get some fresh eyes/ideas in the building. The D both bends *and* breaks against high-level offenses too often for my liking, and Mahomes is consistently unstoppable and insanely efficient against us in the playoffs. Like, if we could ever get a slightly below average defensive game vs. KC instead of being trounced, we probably win.

Leslie Frazier (tongue an cheek sort of)

 

[ValJamesDuex]

If Beane rolled up to the presser today in this hoodie...

yah, that would of been a fine

 

[brian_griffin]

Just saw Cooper Kupp is not expected back in LA (Maybe just a random rumor). What's his market like you think at his age and injuries? I'd love that...

Not clear to me why Kupp would want to leave LAR. Decent QB, playoff team, will the grass be greener elsewhere? There's a limited list of other yards which will be as nice or better...

I don't understand NFL contracts and the cut now, cut after June, trade and retain, restructure, convert bonus to base, extension, etc., shenanigans as well as I likely need to to comment with any authority, but I don't think Kupp is affordable to BUF under any circumstances.

I'd rather the Bills attempt to have Coleman develop along the Kupp trajectory than acquire Kupp. ~30 catches in ~13 games started and a <50% catch rate shouldn't be difficult to improve upon.

Now, if Kupp wanted to join BUF for 4-5x of 2024 Amari Cooper money, I'm fine with that. But that ain't happening.

I'm all for Beane finding a 2025 version of a talented malcontent to replace Amari Cooper if Amari prices himself out of BUF.