Buffalo Bills The offseason begins

[zenthusiast]

Well, you could have said the same about Andy Reid before he got to KC and could work with Mahomes...

That’s true. Even without a championship though I’d rate his performance in Philly above MMC’s in Green Bay given the relative quality of McNabb/Rodgers. Allen is obviously better than Prescott so who’s to say how that would pan out.

Tangentially I do wonder if Reid would have been hired if they’d been looking to take an already-established Mahomes over the top rather than rebuilding. Clearly it worked out for them

 

[Husko]

Well, you could have said the same about Andy Reid before he got to KC and could work with Mahomes...

McCarthy has already had two stints, though. And has never been viewed as the offensive genius that Reid is.

I just think your perception of McCarthy is a little warped. He would've been fired years ago if Jones wasn't so cheap. He's not thought highly of. And he's not "taking a year off" by choice, but because no one wanted him except the team that no one wants to go to. McDermott to McCarthy would be a serious downgrade, and is exactly the sort of reason I'm pretty against moving on from McDermott, most doors lead to downgrades.

 

[zenthusiast]

As someone who’s been very clear with how I feel about coaching I don’t think there needs to be a clear “better” option as much of a change of approach.

Find a baseline competent coach who will do things a little differently, like Gruden in TB or Gary Kubiak in Denver, and even if they aren’t savants, that change in approach can be enough.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Hot take: I'm ok with the CB2 solution being Ingram, Elam, a day 3 pick, and a very cheap vet battling for the position.

I'd add in a traits type CB is one fell into Beane's lap on draft day. Beyond that, I'm all for DL.

 

[Husko]

Ok here's my first stab at a preliminary offseason plan because this is how I cope:

Note: I'm using spotrac, which currently has us 2.5 over the cap, not OTC, which has us 7.4 over, because of it's roster tool, even though I find OTC more reliable with numbers.

Cuts

• Von Miller: This is a no brainer and was always the plan. Him finding relevance as a pass rush specialist was nice, but not worth the huge cap hit. Getting out from under this with 8 million saved and nothing on the books in 2026 is the obvious move.
• Trubisky: He was never going to play on his over 3 million cap hit. Saves 2.5. If he doesn't land somewhere he can come back for cheap to compete with Mike White for the job.
• Epenesa: He's not guaranteed much, so I hope they can force a pay cut to save some money. But if he won't take one, 3.3 in savings looks nice to me.
• Daquan Jones: He's been a nice piece, but regressed a lot this year and is owed a decent chunk of change this year and with a void next year. I designate him a post June 1 cut which opens up about 5 million on June 1 (rookie money) and keeps a similar cap hit next year to what the void was going to cost anyway.
• I'd happily trade Elam or Samuel if anyone would take them off our hands for cap relief on their guaranteed salaries, but it's not happening. We're stuck with them.

Cap space is now about +12 million, with 5 million in reserve for June 1

Restructures and Extensions

• New Allen contract: 300 over 5 years or something huge, but which lowers his current cap hit by about 10 million.
• Oliver full base conversion, opens up about 10 million more in cap space
• McGovern extension: Saves a couple million
• Edwards one year extension: Saves a couple million
• Knox extension / paycut with more guarantees: Saves about 6 million
• Bernard, Benford, and Shakir big boy extensions, which don't save much, maybe 5 million total
• Cook extension, saves 3 million

Cap space is now at about 39 million, without needing a huge reserve for rookies because of the DJ money coming

Resignings

• Mack Hollins: 2-3 year deal, let's say a 3 million hit this year
• Ty Johnson: 1-2 year deal, 3 million cap hit
• Gilliam, Reid, Van Denmark, Alec Anderson, Morris: Cheapish deals, lets say 6 million in cap space total

Cap space is down to about 31 million (because many of those details just replace similar top 51 deals)

Free Agents

• I'd like to sign a WR in the Cooper mold (older, good route runner, ok with limited snaps), but for cheaper than I expect Cooper will go for. I'm thinking in the 5-10 million range. Maybe Keenan Allen is an option coming off a bad year. Darius Slayton has been mentioned and is thought of as a high character guy. Diontae Johnson seems like a poor locker room fit at this point despite be loving his game.
• Julius Blackmon or a similar safety: Our safety room has a lot of guys that play well in the box and lacks more of a deep option, which is where Blackmon excels despite being able to do a bit of everything. He's still young and the Bills were interested before he returned to Indy on a one year deal last year. I'm sure there are similar options. ~5+ million cap hit.
• Baron Browning (edge): If the Bills take a swing on a DE, I want it to be a young pass rusher that has good underlying numbers but lacks productivity. These are the kind of guys that could pay off big bets in a new situation. Malcolm Koonce would be another name I'd throw out. Don't get me wrong, these guys won't be cheap for what they've done so far in their careers. But these are the kind of bets I would make.
• Calais Campbell: He's not the disruptive player he used to be, but he's still an elite interior DL run stuffer, and I think he would go a long way towards shoring up one of our biggest weaknesses

Draft

I haven't studied these players so this mock draft is mostly a testament to the approach I would take:

General feelings I have:

• Hammer defense and especially DL with our early picks
• Draft a receiver somewhere that's not late day 3
• Draft a RB on day 3
• Take a safety somewhere
• Take a corner somewhere
• Add some interior OL depth somewhere

 

[Der Jaeger]

Ok here's my first stab at a preliminary offseason plan because this is how I cope:

Note: I'm using spotrac, which currently has us 2.5 over the cap, not OTC, which has us 7.4 over, because of it's roster tool, even though I find OTC more reliable with numbers.

Cuts

• Von Miller: This is a no brainer and was always the plan. Him finding relevance as a pass rush specialist was nice, but not worth the huge cap hit. Getting out from under this with 8 million saved and nothing on the books in 2026 is the obvious move.
• Trubisky: He was never going to play on his over 3 million cap hit. Saves 2.5. If he doesn't land somewhere he can come back for cheap to compete with Mike White for the job.
• Epenesa: He's not guaranteed much, so I hope they can force a pay cut to save some money. But if he won't take one, 3.3 in savings looks nice to me.
• Daquan Jones: He's been a nice piece, but regressed a lot this year and is owed a decent chunk of change this year and with a void next year. I designate him a post June 1 cut which opens up about 5 million on June 1 (rookie money) and keeps a similar cap hit next year to what the void was going to cost anyway.
• I'd happily trade Elam or Samuel if anyone would take them off our hands for cap relief on their guaranteed salaries, but it's not happening. We're stuck with them.

Cap space is now about +12 million, with 5 million in reserve for June 1

Restructures and Extensions

• New Allen contract: 300 over 5 years or something huge, but which lowers his current cap hit by about 10 million.
• Oliver full base conversion, opens up about 10 million more in cap space
• McGovern extension: Saves a couple million
• Edwards one year extension: Saves a couple million
• Knox extension / paycut with more guarantees: Saves about 6 million
• Bernard, Benford, and Shakir big boy extensions, which don't save much, maybe 5 million total
• Cook extension, saves 3 million

Cap space is now at about 39 million, without needing a huge reserve for rookies because of the DJ money coming

Resignings

• Mack Hollins: 2-3 year deal, let's say a 3 million hit this year
• Ty Johnson: 1-2 year deal, 3 million cap hit
• Gilliam, Reid, Van Denmark, Alec Anderson, Morris: Cheapish deals, lets say 6 million in cap space total

Cap space is down to about 31 million (because many of those details just replace similar top 51 deals)

Free Agents

• I'd like to sign a WR in the Cooper mold (older, good route runner, ok with limited snaps), but for cheaper than I expect Cooper will go for. I'm thinking in the 5-10 million range. Maybe Keenan Allen is an option coming off a bad year. Darius Slayton has been mentioned and is thought of as a high character guy. Diontae Johnson seems like a poor locker room fit at this point despite be loving his game.
• Julius Blackmon or a similar safety: Our safety room has a lot of guys that play well in the box and lacks more of a deep option, which is where Blackmon excels despite being able to do a bit of everything. He's still young and the Bills were interested before he returned to Indy on a one year deal last year. I'm sure there are similar options. ~5+ million cap hit.
• Baron Browning (edge): If the Bills take a swing on a DE, I want it to be a young pass rusher that has good underlying numbers but lacks productivity. These are the kind of guys that could pay off big bets in a new situation. Malcolm Koonce would be another name I'd throw out. Don't get me wrong, these guys won't be cheap for what they've done so far in their careers. But these are the kind of bets I would make.
• Calais Campbell: He's not the disruptive player he used to be, but he's still an elite interior DL run stuffer, and I think he would go a long way towards shoring up one of our biggest weaknesses

Draft

I haven't studied these players so this mock draft is mostly a testament to the approach I would take:

View attachment 969078

General feelings I have:

• Hammer defense and especially DL with our early picks
• Draft a receiver somewhere that's not late day 3
• Draft a RB on day 3
• Take a safety somewhere
• Take a corner somewhere
• Add some interior OL depth somewhere

Agree with almost all of this. Not sure I'd cut Epenesa and Jones. I think that takes the position too far into a deficit, with only a bunch of rookies to fill in. I'd maybe work a re-structure.

Agree with the approach of the draft (PFN is way off on their big board, in my opinion) but that's the right approach.

 

[Dirty Dog]

As someone who’s been very clear with how I feel about coaching I don’t think there needs to be a clear “better” option as much of a change of approach.

Find a baseline competent coach who will do things a little differently, like Gruden in TB or Gary Kubiak in Denver, and even if they aren’t savants, that change in approach can be enough.

Baseline competent coaching, which is already difficult to find, is far far below what we have achieved

 

[zenthusiast]

Baseline competent coaching, which is already difficult to find, is far far below what we have achieved

Baseline competent coaching got us what we achieved, which is losing a semifinal twice and only in competitive fashion once

The quarterback is the key

 

[26CornerBlitz]

One last look at the AFC Championship Game. The defense needs major improvement. Specifically at DT, CB, Edge, and Safety IMO. More speedy and explosive players with potential as Game Changers. Beane needs a big offseason with player acquisition in the draft and targeted free agency. Go Bills!

 

[Dubi Doo]

Man, I thought McD was awesome this year. A few hiccups, but the game is highly pressurized, and decisions have to be made quickly sometimes. Mistakes happen. I'm intrigued in how he grows over the next decade assuming he's still here.

Honestly, if Allen is more composed in the first half, I think we win that game. Leaning on Cook in the third really brought them back into it (wish they would've leaned on him more, honestly), and the defense, while I was annoyed with them, did a solid job in the 2nd half.

Unfortunately, KC has the best offensive mind in the game + possibly the best defensive mind in the game coaching them, and we nearly beat them, away, with Allen showing some rare nerves early on.

Given this was a retool year- I'd give this season an A. I can't say that's all on Allen. McD deserves credit. Firing Dorsey midseason (23') was a ballsy move, but it took this team to another level.

I don't know, I think McD is evolving and improving every year. We're knocking on the door, and while I think the odds are against us to win a SB in the Allen era (that's due more to quality of competition)- Buffalo has a better shot still than 90% of the league. Firing McD could hurt those odds quite a bit.

 

[Zman5778]

Agree with almost all of this. Not sure I'd cut Epenesa and Jones. I think that takes the position too far into a deficit, with only a bunch of rookies to fill in. I'd maybe work a re-structure.

Agree with the approach of the draft (PFN is way off on their big board, in my opinion) but that's the right approach.

Personally, I wouldn't cut AJE. I think he's a fine-to-good #3DE for us. Jones is the one I waffle on. He looked absolutely cooked at the start of the year but came on later. I'd lean towards cutting him.....but wouldn't hate it if they kept him

 

[Zman5778]

The defense needs major improvement. Specifically at DT, CB, Edge, and Safety IMO.

It's probably easier to say "everywhere but LB"......

 

[Der Jaeger]

Personally, I wouldn't cut AJE. I think he's a fine-to-good #3DE for us. Jones is the one I waffle on. He looked absolutely cooked at the start of the year but came on later. I'd lean towards cutting him.....but wouldn't hate it if they kept him

I'm a huge fan of the Jimmy Johnson method of DL. The Bills have two game changing defenders - Oliver and Rousseau. Johnson had Charles Haley and Russell Maryland. And even Maryland was a rotational run down defender.

He's what I could see, if I were running the team:

Run downs:
LE: Rousseau
3DT: Jones
NT: acquired
RE: Epenesa

Pass downs:
LE: Rousseau
3DT: Carter
NT: Oliver
RE: Solomon

I do think Oliver is better over the center, and on pass downs I think he would dominate. He'd need a contract re-structure.

 

[zenthusiast]

To my earlier point, I think the Peyton Manning path can render a lesson.

Tony Dungy is a NFL giant by virtue of popularizing what came to be called the Tampa 2 but you’ll recall that his success as head coach was actually more modest in Tampa (54-42 in the regular season, 2-4 in the playoffs). In Indianapolis, that script flipped to the tune of 85-27 in the regular season and 7-6 in the playoffs. Notably, they blew a few gimmes, battled the patriots, and finally spanked the rex grossman bears. After a few one and dones after that, Dungy retired.

I think we’d all agree that Jim Caldwell was nothing special, and it’s no surprise that he lost multiple jobs within a decade. In the two seasons that he had Peyton Manning starting, the Colts went 24-8 in the regular season and 2-2 in the playoffs, losing a Super Bowl to the Sean Peyton Saints. After leaving Indianapolis following the suck for luck season, Caldwell’s teams had modest success in Detroit with a 36-28 record and two wild card appearances.



After nearly losing his head Manning moved on to Denver, of course, where John Fox was 81-79 in his career prior to Manning’s arrival. They then went 38-10 over the next three regular seasons, and 2-3 in the playoffs, including a loss to super bowl champion Baltimore in the divisional round and a Super Bowl loss to Seattle. After being let go, Fox finished his career going 14-34 in Chicago.

Noted NFL warm body Gary Kubiak won a championship after replacing Fox, but by this point, Manning was old and broken. You’ll recall Brock Osweiler taking his job for a few weeks.

What does this mean for Buffalo, anyway? Josh Allen isn’t Peyton Manning, who for my money is the best (not the greatest, etc.) quarterback in the history of the NFL. But in this era, he’s arguably the best in the league. He can elevate a team, and a coach, past what might be the standard usually. His excellence should not be a reason to avoid seeking a change elsewhere. Granted, there’s a lot of luck in this game, and if you want to say that if not for luck, McDermott would have led the team to a Super Bowl victory, that’s your prerogative. But if that’s the case, how many years more can the Bills stay unlucky? Do they keep putting more quarters into the machine until Allen is 35?

 

[26CornerBlitz]

It's probably easier to say "everywhere but LB"......

Good point!

 

[DapperCam]

Ok here's my first stab at a preliminary offseason plan because this is how I cope:

Note: I'm using spotrac, which currently has us 2.5 over the cap, not OTC, which has us 7.4 over, because of it's roster tool, even though I find OTC more reliable with numbers.

Cuts

• Von Miller: This is a no brainer and was always the plan. Him finding relevance as a pass rush specialist was nice, but not worth the huge cap hit. Getting out from under this with 8 million saved and nothing on the books in 2026 is the obvious move.
• Trubisky: He was never going to play on his over 3 million cap hit. Saves 2.5. If he doesn't land somewhere he can come back for cheap to compete with Mike White for the job.
• Epenesa: He's not guaranteed much, so I hope they can force a pay cut to save some money. But if he won't take one, 3.3 in savings looks nice to me.
• Daquan Jones: He's been a nice piece, but regressed a lot this year and is owed a decent chunk of change this year and with a void next year. I designate him a post June 1 cut which opens up about 5 million on June 1 (rookie money) and keeps a similar cap hit next year to what the void was going to cost anyway.
• I'd happily trade Elam or Samuel if anyone would take them off our hands for cap relief on their guaranteed salaries, but it's not happening. We're stuck with them.

Cap space is now about +12 million, with 5 million in reserve for June 1

Restructures and Extensions

• New Allen contract: 300 over 5 years or something huge, but which lowers his current cap hit by about 10 million.
• Oliver full base conversion, opens up about 10 million more in cap space
• McGovern extension: Saves a couple million
• Edwards one year extension: Saves a couple million
• Knox extension / paycut with more guarantees: Saves about 6 million
• Bernard, Benford, and Shakir big boy extensions, which don't save much, maybe 5 million total
• Cook extension, saves 3 million

Cap space is now at about 39 million, without needing a huge reserve for rookies because of the DJ money coming

Resignings

• Mack Hollins: 2-3 year deal, let's say a 3 million hit this year
• Ty Johnson: 1-2 year deal, 3 million cap hit
• Gilliam, Reid, Van Denmark, Alec Anderson, Morris: Cheapish deals, lets say 6 million in cap space total

Cap space is down to about 31 million (because many of those details just replace similar top 51 deals)

Free Agents

• I'd like to sign a WR in the Cooper mold (older, good route runner, ok with limited snaps), but for cheaper than I expect Cooper will go for. I'm thinking in the 5-10 million range. Maybe Keenan Allen is an option coming off a bad year. Darius Slayton has been mentioned and is thought of as a high character guy. Diontae Johnson seems like a poor locker room fit at this point despite be loving his game.
• Julius Blackmon or a similar safety: Our safety room has a lot of guys that play well in the box and lacks more of a deep option, which is where Blackmon excels despite being able to do a bit of everything. He's still young and the Bills were interested before he returned to Indy on a one year deal last year. I'm sure there are similar options. ~5+ million cap hit.
• Baron Browning (edge): If the Bills take a swing on a DE, I want it to be a young pass rusher that has good underlying numbers but lacks productivity. These are the kind of guys that could pay off big bets in a new situation. Malcolm Koonce would be another name I'd throw out. Don't get me wrong, these guys won't be cheap for what they've done so far in their careers. But these are the kind of bets I would make.
• Calais Campbell: He's not the disruptive player he used to be, but he's still an elite interior DL run stuffer, and I think he would go a long way towards shoring up one of our biggest weaknesses

Draft

I haven't studied these players so this mock draft is mostly a testament to the approach I would take:

View attachment 969078

General feelings I have:

• Hammer defense and especially DL with our early picks
• Draft a receiver somewhere that's not late day 3
• Draft a RB on day 3
• Take a safety somewhere
• Take a corner somewhere
• Add some interior OL depth somewhere

Only thing missing here is who will play boundary corner opposite Benford? Douglas is a FA. I think if it’s Elam or Ingram we’re going to have real problems.

 

[ruff22]

I like that "Jumbo" better than Bills tush push formations (not all) with one or two flankers out wide, and/or having the RB tighter to the LoS.
Why? My assumption is the wideouts pose an easier d-matchup, and it's an obvious decoy which is doubtful to be used; and the RB closer to the LoS lacks the space and time to get wider faster for a potential pitch.
Also, w/o flankers on at least one side, you can more easily run a naked bootleg or option. If you go jumbo, defense will likely go bigger/slower across the defense end to end, vs. having a smaller d-back out wide who can cheat inside and risk a lob toss to the flanker if the QB adjusts on the option and seeks to throw vs. keep running.
But what do I know? I'm old.

The Stanley Cup is getting that way for me too. I've seen the final game and trophy presented every season since '74-75. This year would be 50 straight (lockout interrupted 51st). Given the lackluster state of the Sabres, I may tune in this year to reach 50 and then discontinue any/all playoff interest until the Sabres are in it (hopefully this decade). The weather where I live May-June is glorious and I've other interests and projects (although I did install a TV on the covered screened back porch I finished rebuilding in December, so maybe I'll reconsider this spring).

Panthers/Oilers and Bruins/Blues finales amongst the very few playoff games I've watched during the Sabres descent into oblivion. Last Sabres game I watched was the season opener versus the Rangers last year and only made it through the first two periods. Pretty sure I haven't seen an entire game since Dahlin was drafted! Super Bowl is the last one to fall, almost never watch much of any other sports unless my team is playing.

 

[Jim Bob]

McCarthy has already had two stints, though. And has never been viewed as the offensive genius that Reid is.

I just think your perception of McCarthy is a little warped. He would've been fired years ago if Jones wasn't so cheap. He's not thought highly of. And he's not "taking a year off" by choice, but because no one wanted him except the team that no one wants to go to. McDermott to McCarthy would be a serious downgrade, and is exactly the sort of reason I'm pretty against moving on from McDermott, most doors lead to downgrades.

I am not saying what I would do, especially now.

But, if the Bills have a down year in 2025, I am sure the minority McD grumblers will grow in numbers. And I could see McCarthy being a name that gets some traction as one of the few available candidates with HC experience and a SB ring.

Ben Johnson was everyone's favorite OC candidate and he's off the board. Slowik was just behind Johnson in a lot of lists 12 months ago and he got fired as Houston's OC after this season. So, things can change fast with the hot coordinator name. Just ask Eric Bieniemy.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

Chiefs-Bills sets AFC Championship viewership record

Sunday's AFC Championship game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills set a viewership record on CBS.

awfulannouncing.com

 

[Jim Bob]

NFL Market Value

Tracking the current calculated market values for various NFL players. Spotrac uses a simple but effective process to calculate value.

www.spotrac.com

Davante Adams and Amari Cooper at 2 yrs and around $13-14M per is interesting to see.

Keenan Allen and Marquise Brown being even cheaper veteran WR options are interesting, too.

 

[FIRE DRURY]

Dude's an absolute unit.

 

[KeyserSoze81]

Man, I thought McD was awesome this year. A few hiccups, but the game is highly pressurized, and decisions have to be made quickly sometimes. Mistakes happen. I'm intrigued in how he grows over the next decade assuming he's still here.

Yup. I have never been a huge fan of his style, but he has done a really good job of changing his approach (ceding control to Babich, allowing the defense to change it up when needed, and being near the top of the list in situational decisions). I have long wanted to change him for a consistent offensive mind (that would give Allen stability, as he is the only reason this team is contending), but I cannot make that argument in good faith this year.

They far exceeded my expectations in a reset year. I cannot fault them for losing by millimeters to an otherwise unbeaten team at Kansas City.

 

[Jim Bob]

Beane would have to re-work Crosby's deal, but that trade package isn't that bad...

 

[zenthusiast]

Beane would have to re-work Crosby's deal, but that trade package isn't that bad...

I’d be thrilled if they could pull that off.

 

[Husko]

Only thing missing here is who will play boundary corner opposite Benford? Douglas is a FA. I think if it’s Elam or Ingram we’re going to have real problems.

I'm envisioning a camp battle between Ingram, Elam, day 3 draft pick, and a cheap FA signing. I think CB2 is a low importance position and have faith they can find another replacement level option. If they can't, they will trade for someone like they did with Douglas.