Buffalo Bills The offseason begins

[ValJamesDuex]

McCarthy has already had two stints, though. And has never been viewed as the offensive genius that Reid is.

I just think your perception of McCarthy is a little warped. He would've been fired years ago if Jones wasn't so cheap. He's not thought highly of. And he's not "taking a year off" by choice, but because no one wanted him except the team that no one wants to go to. McDermott to McCarthy would be a serious downgrade, and is exactly the sort of reason I'm pretty against moving on from McDermott, most doors lead to downgrades.

warped is one word for it

 

[GrierIsGod123]

I'm envisioning a camp battle between Ingram, Elam, day 3 draft pick, and a cheap FA signing. I think CB2 is a low importance position and have faith they can find another replacement level option. If they can't, they will trade for someone like they did with Douglas.

Beg to differ ... look at how much better KC's secondary looks with Watson healthy. Look at how much better ours got with Douglas instead of Dane Jackson. Next year is not the year to f*** around and find out. They need to shore up the defense and add a couple weapons into the offense, maybe fix their special teams while they're at it.

 

[zenthusiast]

I’m worried that Benford getting his brains scrambled twice in two weeks could prove more significant than one might expect

 

[ValJamesDuex]

I’m worried that Benford getting his brains scrambled twice in two weeks could prove more significant than one might expect

Said he's doing OK now

Christian Benford injury update: Bills cornerback comments on concussion vs. Chiefs

Benford let Bills fans know he was okay in an Instagram story.

www.syracuse.com

I'm sure they will monitor him over the off-season and he will need to see a neurologist. I would not be surprised to see him play with the Guardian cap in camp.

 

[NotABadPeriod]

I'm envisioning a camp battle between Ingram, Elam, day 3 draft pick, and a cheap FA signing. I think CB2 is a low importance position and have faith they can find another replacement level option. If they can't, they will trade for someone like they did with Douglas.

I firmly expect that "cheap FA signing" to be Levi Wallace.

Yes, Wallace looked awful on other teams. But that's likely because his best scheme fit was right here, and we know bringing guys back who know the defense is something this team has often done.

 

[buffa dud]

Curious if I'm the only one here that's going to boycott the Super Bowl this year (have seen every game, some not in their entirety, since Super Bowl IV).

We've talked it over with my parents and my wife's dad, and not one of us plan to watch this year.

My own personal take is that the NFL has gradually become a parody of a professional sports league.

It's become the WWE. And several years from now, we may very well find out that it's just as scripted.

 

[My Cozen Dylan]

Beane would have to re-work Crosby's deal, but that trade package isn't that bad...

Honestly I'd probably just rather trade pick 30 if they'd do that one for one.

 

[HaNotsri]

I’m worried that Benford getting his brains scrambled twice in two weeks could prove more significant than one might expect

Yeah I wouldn't sign a long term deal. One thing that scares me more than anything is the double concussion.

 

[Husko]

We've talked it over with my parents and my wife's dad, and not one of us plan to watch this year.

My own personal take is that the NFL has gradually become a parody of a professional sports league.

It's become the WWE. And several years from now, we may very well find out that it's just as scripted.

I'm currently leaning towards not watching. I just don't think it will bring me joy.

 

[Fezzy126]

Ok here's my first stab at a preliminary offseason plan because this is how I cope:

Note: I'm using spotrac, which currently has us 2.5 over the cap, not OTC, which has us 7.4 over, because of it's roster tool, even though I find OTC more reliable with numbers.

Cuts

• Von Miller: This is a no brainer and was always the plan. Him finding relevance as a pass rush specialist was nice, but not worth the huge cap hit. Getting out from under this with 8 million saved and nothing on the books in 2026 is the obvious move.
• Trubisky: He was never going to play on his over 3 million cap hit. Saves 2.5. If he doesn't land somewhere he can come back for cheap to compete with Mike White for the job.
• Epenesa: He's not guaranteed much, so I hope they can force a pay cut to save some money. But if he won't take one, 3.3 in savings looks nice to me.
• Daquan Jones: He's been a nice piece, but regressed a lot this year and is owed a decent chunk of change this year and with a void next year. I designate him a post June 1 cut which opens up about 5 million on June 1 (rookie money) and keeps a similar cap hit next year to what the void was going to cost anyway.
• I'd happily trade Elam or Samuel if anyone would take them off our hands for cap relief on their guaranteed salaries, but it's not happening. We're stuck with them.

Cap space is now about +12 million, with 5 million in reserve for June 1

Restructures and Extensions

• New Allen contract: 300 over 5 years or something huge, but which lowers his current cap hit by about 10 million.
• Oliver full base conversion, opens up about 10 million more in cap space
• McGovern extension: Saves a couple million
• Edwards one year extension: Saves a couple million
• Knox extension / paycut with more guarantees: Saves about 6 million
• Bernard, Benford, and Shakir big boy extensions, which don't save much, maybe 5 million total
• Cook extension, saves 3 million

Cap space is now at about 39 million, without needing a huge reserve for rookies because of the DJ money coming

Resignings

• Mack Hollins: 2-3 year deal, let's say a 3 million hit this year
• Ty Johnson: 1-2 year deal, 3 million cap hit
• Gilliam, Reid, Van Denmark, Alec Anderson, Morris: Cheapish deals, lets say 6 million in cap space total

Cap space is down to about 31 million (because many of those details just replace similar top 51 deals)

Free Agents

• I'd like to sign a WR in the Cooper mold (older, good route runner, ok with limited snaps), but for cheaper than I expect Cooper will go for. I'm thinking in the 5-10 million range. Maybe Keenan Allen is an option coming off a bad year. Darius Slayton has been mentioned and is thought of as a high character guy. Diontae Johnson seems like a poor locker room fit at this point despite be loving his game.
• Julius Blackmon or a similar safety: Our safety room has a lot of guys that play well in the box and lacks more of a deep option, which is where Blackmon excels despite being able to do a bit of everything. He's still young and the Bills were interested before he returned to Indy on a one year deal last year. I'm sure there are similar options. ~5+ million cap hit.
• Baron Browning (edge): If the Bills take a swing on a DE, I want it to be a young pass rusher that has good underlying numbers but lacks productivity. These are the kind of guys that could pay off big bets in a new situation. Malcolm Koonce would be another name I'd throw out. Don't get me wrong, these guys won't be cheap for what they've done so far in their careers. But these are the kind of bets I would make.
• Calais Campbell: He's not the disruptive player he used to be, but he's still an elite interior DL run stuffer, and I think he would go a long way towards shoring up one of our biggest weaknesses

Draft

I haven't studied these players so this mock draft is mostly a testament to the approach I would take:

View attachment 969078

General feelings I have:

• Hammer defense and especially DL with our early picks
• Draft a receiver somewhere that's not late day 3
• Draft a RB on day 3
• Take a safety somewhere
• Take a corner somewhere
• Add some interior OL depth somewhere

Right on, we have the same coping mechanism

My early draft approach is eerily similar to yours as well, and this is the perfect draft to attack the defensive line, there's a lot of talent this year.

The only difference is our approach with Benford & Rousseau.

Benford gives me crazy Josh Norman vibes after his first stint with McDermott in Carolina. He's solid and I love what he brings to the defense, but I doubt he grades out as highly on another team. CBs also tend to break down faster than other positions. I'm letting him play out his contract, especially with the injury history, while also signing a FA and drafting another CB pretty high. I won't be upset if they prioritize Benford, it's just not something I would do.

Rousseau on the other hand was a difference maker all year right up until the end. I think the last game has left sour taste and it's clouding judgement. Not singling you out, I'm seeing it all over social media. PFF had him graded as the 12th best DE in the league (yeah yeah normal PFF grading disclaimer here). He was a force for the majority of the year, and I'd be trying like hell to extend him and upgrade the other side (oh hello there Maxx).

Been seriously down about the loss, but I think seeing senior bowl practice clips on X has lit a tiny flame in me again.

 

[Husko]

To be clear, I like Rousseau. In a vacuum I want him on the team. I just don't know if I want him on the team at 25-30 million per year.

 

[Corto]

I'm just afraid that they might fool themselves into thinking the D was very good. It was decent, but prone to getting carved up by the stronger teams. The team lived off the turnover difference, which is great - but it's not sustainable.

I know people are crying for a #1 WR (fair enough), but they still had 32 ppg.
Coleman (sadly) looks a tier below Brian Thomas Jr, Nabers, McConkey, even Worthy... Though he struggled with injury in his rookie season, so we can hope for better there - but I think his ceiling might be a good #2/#3, a WR with low targets who'll be used in certain situations for contested catches.
Cooper... I don't know. When the trade was made, I was hoping he would become a mini-Diggs. He's still a good route runner, but I would say his impact was limited (at best).
Kincaid was out as well.
With all that... Offense was (mostly) fine.

Defense... Wasn't.

A healthy Milano should help for the full season, but they have to address the secondary, and a monster pass rusher would be great, but can't see that happening.

They need to be smart this offseason. The roster has room for improvement, with the right picks and good FA signings, the team could greatly improve.

But... The Chiefs might be better. The Ravens. Bengals will almost certainly be better.
Jets with Glenn might improve.
In the NFC, I expect the 49ers will be back.

This season was suppose to be a write-off, yet it was a (IMO blown) call away from going to the SB.
But it's all for naught if they don't improve this summer.

 

[buffa dud]

To be clear, I like Rousseau. In a vacuum I want him on the team. I just don't know if I want him on the team at 25-30 million per year.

It's the same conversation that we had about Edmunds. Would everyone have preferred he re-signed? Absolutely. Was he worth that extension? No. And that turned out to be the right move after all.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Ok here's my first stab at a preliminary offseason plan because this is how I cope:

Note: I'm using spotrac, which currently has us 2.5 over the cap, not OTC, which has us 7.4 over, because of it's roster tool, even though I find OTC more reliable with numbers.

Cuts

• Von Miller: This is a no brainer and was always the plan. Him finding relevance as a pass rush specialist was nice, but not worth the huge cap hit. Getting out from under this with 8 million saved and nothing on the books in 2026 is the obvious move.
• Trubisky: He was never going to play on his over 3 million cap hit. Saves 2.5. If he doesn't land somewhere he can come back for cheap to compete with Mike White for the job.
• Epenesa: He's not guaranteed much, so I hope they can force a pay cut to save some money. But if he won't take one, 3.3 in savings looks nice to me.
• Daquan Jones: He's been a nice piece, but regressed a lot this year and is owed a decent chunk of change this year and with a void next year. I designate him a post June 1 cut which opens up about 5 million on June 1 (rookie money) and keeps a similar cap hit next year to what the void was going to cost anyway.
• I'd happily trade Elam or Samuel if anyone would take them off our hands for cap relief on their guaranteed salaries, but it's not happening. We're stuck with them.

Cap space is now about +12 million, with 5 million in reserve for June 1

Restructures and Extensions

• New Allen contract: 300 over 5 years or something huge, but which lowers his current cap hit by about 10 million.
• Oliver full base conversion, opens up about 10 million more in cap space
• McGovern extension: Saves a couple million
• Edwards one year extension: Saves a couple million
• Knox extension / paycut with more guarantees: Saves about 6 million
• Bernard, Benford, and Shakir big boy extensions, which don't save much, maybe 5 million total
• Cook extension, saves 3 million

Cap space is now at about 39 million, without needing a huge reserve for rookies because of the DJ money coming

Resignings

• Mack Hollins: 2-3 year deal, let's say a 3 million hit this year
• Ty Johnson: 1-2 year deal, 3 million cap hit
• Gilliam, Reid, Van Denmark, Alec Anderson, Morris: Cheapish deals, lets say 6 million in cap space total

Cap space is down to about 31 million (because many of those details just replace similar top 51 deals)

Free Agents

• I'd like to sign a WR in the Cooper mold (older, good route runner, ok with limited snaps), but for cheaper than I expect Cooper will go for. I'm thinking in the 5-10 million range. Maybe Keenan Allen is an option coming off a bad year. Darius Slayton has been mentioned and is thought of as a high character guy. Diontae Johnson seems like a poor locker room fit at this point despite be loving his game.
• Julius Blackmon or a similar safety: Our safety room has a lot of guys that play well in the box and lacks more of a deep option, which is where Blackmon excels despite being able to do a bit of everything. He's still young and the Bills were interested before he returned to Indy on a one year deal last year. I'm sure there are similar options. ~5+ million cap hit.
• Baron Browning (edge): If the Bills take a swing on a DE, I want it to be a young pass rusher that has good underlying numbers but lacks productivity. These are the kind of guys that could pay off big bets in a new situation. Malcolm Koonce would be another name I'd throw out. Don't get me wrong, these guys won't be cheap for what they've done so far in their careers. But these are the kind of bets I would make.
• Calais Campbell: He's not the disruptive player he used to be, but he's still an elite interior DL run stuffer, and I think he would go a long way towards shoring up one of our biggest weaknesses

Draft

I haven't studied these players so this mock draft is mostly a testament to the approach I would take:

View attachment 969078

General feelings I have:

• Hammer defense and especially DL with our early picks
• Draft a receiver somewhere that's not late day 3
• Draft a RB on day 3
• Take a safety somewhere
• Take a corner somewhere
• Add some interior OL depth somewhere

Early morning swing prior to driving to my kid’s tournament:

Overall goals:
- develop a rotational defensive line (Jimmy Johnson Cowboys idea)
- add bigger DTs
- add REs who can allow Rousseau to stay at LE
- bolster the defensive backfield
- add BPA where it makes sense

Cuts:
- Von Miller.
- Trubisky

I don’t think the Bills can afford to cut many players and add in a lot of rookies, who are coming. I like the money saved by cutting Jones but I think there’s value in his reps for one year while rookies learn.

Re-structures and extensions:
- Allen
- Knox
- Milano
- Samuel
- Edwards
- McGovern
- look at Bernard, Shakir, and Benford for extensions but they have to be reasonable.
- Cook extension but also has to be with an eye to the RB market

Re-sign
- Hollins. No brainer
- Ty Johnson
- Gilliam
- Morris
- Van Demark (I think this is already done)
- Anderson
- Ferguson

Once Beane gets all this done, here’s your roster, with somewhere between $17 and $25M left (rookies included in that figure), based on how the deals work:

QB: Allen, White
RB: Cook, Johnson, Davis, Gilliam
WR: Coleman, Shakir, Hollins, Samuel
TE: Kincaid, Knox, Morris
OT: Dawkins, Brown, Grable, Van Demark
G: Torrence, Edwards, Anderson
C: McGovern, SVPG

DE: Rousseau, Epenesa, Solomon
DT: Oliver, Jones, Carter
LB: Milano, Bernard, Williams, Andreessen, Spector, Ulofoshio
CB: Benford, Elam, Ingram, Codrington
NB: Johnson, Lewis
S: Bishop, Rapp

ST: Bass, Martin, Ferguson

That’s 45 players, which is good because Beane can target who he wants.

Adds in free agency. I wouldn’t take a ton of big swings here. Short deal types will do.

Darius Slayton. The Bills could use another downfield threat who can pull coverage deep. If he’s affordable. Another idea for this need is trading Elam to the Giants for Jalin Hyatt.

Levi Wallace. An old friend comes back. He’s played well in bursts for other teams, but the aftermath of the Denver-Cleveland game and how Sean Payton handled it is weird, seems like there’s more to the story. But he was good in Buffalo and the Bills usually only need one really good CB. And that’s Benford.

Azeez Ojulari. Smaller pass rusher who was on IR for the Giants. Rotational pass rusher.

Calais Campbell. @Husko brought this idea up and it’s good. Rotational run stuffer.

Draft: went with PFN because it’s got a free 7 round mock. I don’t like there player list so I went off the board with some picks.

1: Kenneth Grant DT Michigan. I like Tyleik Williams more but he’ll be gone by pick 30.
2. Deone Walker DT Kentucky. Bills go Eagles style with big DTs.
2. Kyle Kennard DE South Carolina. Twitchy edge rusher with a motor.
**thought about Charles Grant here. He’s the type of lineman I’d love to let Kroger work with. Looks like a young Jason Peters to me.
4. Billy Bowman S Oklahoma. Smart versatile player
4. Jonah Monheim IOL USC. Played every position well for USC.
5. Theo Wease WR Missouri. Receiver with speed
5: Smael Mondon LB Georgia. Depth LB
6. Nazir Stackhouse DT Georgia. Run stuffing DT
6. Kyle Monangai RB Rutgers. Power back
7. Tony Grimes CB UNLV. Late round flyer on a traits CB who can play in zone.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[DolanPlsGoSabres]

The defense really wasn't fine for most of the season.
I think they were really poor in certain metrics (literally everything related to 3rd down lol) and some of it you can blame on scheme/philosophy, but you could also call it a talent issue as well. I think we had the overall weakest defense in the AFC playoff picture, especially based on personnel, and maybe only better than Washington/Detroit (injuries) if you expand to NFC, particularly on the DL and secondary. Every other team had multiple guys where you could only say "man, I wish we had somebody like that in our secondary/DL".

It was a high variance, opportunistic defense that maximized their opportunities for turnovers but in the end you don't have enough guys that just win their reps and get stops. It really showed against KC and tbh Baltimore (they got no 'stops', the Ravens either moved the ball and scored or moved the ball and turned it over). No in-game scheme or philosophy would succeed if guys were frequently losing the way they were.

 

[Husko]

Hendrickson is amazing. You're also trading assets for the right to give 30 million a year to someone that's already 30. He's the same age as Tre White, for comparison.

 

[WeDislikeEich]

I wouldn't want a rookie HC at this stage in Josh Allen's career.

It took McD a number of years to figure things out. You probably have a 2-3 year learning curve for a rookie head coach.

No thanks.

This

I don’t think they should move on from McDermott. But if they did, the only way it makes sense to me is if it was for a proven veteran coach we felt was a true upgrade, and there are very few coaches that would be a clear upgrade on McDermott. One that comes to mind would be Sean McVay. If he happened to become available then I think about moving on from McDermott (I would not fire McDermott for Mike McCarthy btw).

People want to move on from McDermott because he got out-coached by the absolute best coach in the NFL. But that doesn’t seem like a very good reason to me.

The Bills have been literally a play away from beating the best team + coach in the NFL (and possibly the best head coach + QB combo in NFL history when all is said and done). They are sooo close. I know it’s frustrating as fans but we need to be logical, not emotional.

What are the chances a first time head coach is better than McDermott?

Moving on would be a different story if the Bills hadn’t been so successful. They are one of the most successful teams in the entire NFL over the past 5 seasons. That’s not as easy to replicate as people think (and yes, I know we have Josh Allen).

Personally, I think it’s Beane who needs to step up. He needs to find McDermott more true difference makers. This team is lacking compared to other contenders.

 

[Fezzy126]

It's the same conversation that we had about Edmunds. Would everyone have preferred he re-signed? Absolutely. Was he worth that extension? No. And that turned out to be the right move after all.

Sure they both were graded highly by PFF, but other than that I don't see the parallels.

Considering positional value, DE is significantly more valuable than off the ball LB. DEs tend to age out more gracefully than the LB position. Edmunds also had glaring weaknesses (subpar agility and COD) that were continually exposed by good teams. Groot is elite at holding the edge and had a single bad game.

He's an elite run defender that had 8 sacks and 3 FF and is in his prime, if we don't extend him now for 20-25 per year, we'll be paying 25-30 to try and replace that level of production. No thanks, he's already a stud at a premium position, pay him.

 

[My Cozen Dylan]

Hendrickson is amazing. You're also trading assets for the right to give 30 million a year to someone that's already 30. He's the same age as Tre White, for comparison.

Obviously every player is different, but Von was 33 when he came to Buffalo and clearly still had gas left in the tank. Totally get your point but I think I’d be comfortable with it.

 

[Sabreality]

Amazing thing is Groot is still just turning 25 in April, I think his best days are still clearly ahead of him. I don't know what that deal looks like, but I'd now like to see him exclusively play LDE instead of having to defer to a guy like Von.

 

[Husko]

Obviously every player is different, but Von was 33 when he came to Buffalo and clearly still had gas left in the tank. Totally get your point but I think I’d be comfortable with it.

Yeah I don't have any harsh takes on this, Garrett, Crosby, etc. Any move like that would be a calculated risk but a big risk at that. It would be exciting but also might go the way of Von.

 

[Jim Bob]

I agree with this take from Beane.

 

[Dubi Doo]

Hendrickson is amazing. You're also trading assets for the right to give 30 million a year to someone that's already 30. He's the same age as Tre White, for cocomparisons.

Agreed. They likely need to acquire their premiere pass rusher in the draft. Elite DEs are EXPENSIVE asset to obtain, then the money on top of that? If he were in his 20s? Sure, but he's on the wrong side of 30.

Damn, as a 36 year old I still feel like I can whoop some ass on the ice, then I get on the ice and realize Im not quite as quick as I used to be. It's wild how much our bodies deteriorate in our 30s even if we are in good shape.

 

[BowieSabresFan]

Agreed. They likely need to acquire their premiere pass rusher in the draft. Elite DEs are EXPENSIVE asset to obtain, then the money on top of that? If he were in his 20s? Sure, but he's on the wrong side of 30.

Damn, as a 36 year old I still feel like I can whoop some ass on the ice, then I get on the ice and realize Im not quite as quick as I used to be. It's wild how much our bodies deteriorate in our 30s even if we are in good shape.

Hey! I just turned 60, and I can still....

What were we talking about again?