Speculation: The Official Bjugstad Thread: Alias Hate and Love not far from each other

[RainingRats]

Ah yes that great Panther team where Nick lead our team in points to make it look more one sided? Smith played for a 1st place team that year btw and the injuries/GP for Bjugstad make a difference. We're blaming Nick for getting injured?

The 15/16 season he only play 67 games and was nearing a 43pt pace. Not that big of a difference in my eyes to Smith's 50pts who was playing 3 more minutes per game than Nick.

I guess we agree to disagree, they're both complimentary players and both could be traded if needed be or both would add to the depth of this team.

I showed the last 5 seasons. Pretty good sample, imo. When they both played on the same team, Smith outperformed him. You can't really cherry pick seasons and then pro rate things and say if he was healthy because that's not reality.

Not that big of a difference in 15/16? Smith had harder matchups, played PK (which makes up for some of the 3 more minutes). Bjugstad on the third is playing against lesser competition.

Sorry, but staying healthy has value and is important. If someone is always injured, that matters. You also gotta give credit to guys who manage to stay healthy in this league. If they're both producing good numbers (they're both not), wouldn't you rather take the guy who stays healthy?

Smith is on the top line of a team, leading them to almost a first place finish in the regular season. Hardly a complimentary player. He's not on the wing of one of the best centers in the league, like Bjugstad. Bjugstad playing with Barkov is the definition of a complimentary player. Smith has 60 points with 16 games left.

 

[RainingRats]

Yeah if Bjugs can play like he has played this season and especially the last 40 games or so Smith is not as much superior as people make it out to be.

Especially if Smith continues his trend and has another off-year next season.

Bjugs needs to stay healthy, I think the injuries really did him in.

If Bjugstad puts outlier career numbers up playing with Barkov he'll be almost as good as Smith who still is better defensively and plays PK. IF if if... Come on.

I love how you say Smith's trend and has another off year next season, as if Bjugstad doesn't have a trend of getting hurt, being defensively average at best, and barely getting to 40 points.

Look at the last 5 seasons and you'll see who is superior statistically.

You guys love to forecast Bjugstad's recent uptick in production moving forward. If you're going to be honest and fair, do the same for Smith who is at almost a PPG pace moving forward as well. Bjgustad clearly the inferior player.

 

[RainingRats]

So he's good now after having one amazing game? Lol kk.

It's almost as if they forgot he got benched the game before.

 

[GrumpyKelly]

If Bjugstad puts outlier career numbers up playing with Barkov he'll be almost as good as Smith who still is better defensively and plays PK. IF if if... Come on.

I love how you say Smith's trend and has another off year next season, as if Bjugstad doesn't have a trend of getting hurt, being defensively average at best, and barely getting to 40 points.

Look at the last 5 seasons and you'll see who is superior statistically.

You guys love to forecast Bjugstad's recent uptick in production moving forward. If you're going to be honest and fair, do the same for Smith who is at almost a PPG pace moving forward as well. Bjgustad clearly the inferior player.

Yes, I think Smith is a superior player. I'm not so entrenched in my position that I can't acknowledge that. I just don't think Bjugstad is waiver fodder or as terrible as you claim.

Smith scored 37 points last year, was he waiver fodder back then too? Or two years before than when he scored 40?

What if he scores 40 points next year again? He's also making 25% more than Nick, shouldn't he bring more to the table to begin with?

Again, if Bjugstad can stay healthy he is a useful player. And no, I don't think it's fair to forecast injuries on Bjugstad the same way Smith has decided to bring a half-assed effort every other year in his short career. Which, by the way, is probably the reason why he is already on his fourth team by the age of 26.

 

[RainingRats]

Yes, I think Smith is a superior player. I'm not so entrenched in my position that I can't acknowledge that. I just don't think Bjugstad is waiver fodder or as terrible as you claim.

Smith scored 37 points last year, was he waiver fodder back then too? Or two years before than when he scored 40?

What if he scores 40 points next year again? He's also making 25% more than Nick, shouldn't he bring more to the table to begin with?

Again, if Bjugstad can stay healthy he is a useful player. And no, I don't think it's fair to forecast injuries on Bjugstad the same way Smith has decided to bring a half-assed effort every other year in his short career. Which, by the way, is probably the reason why he is already on his fourth team by the age of 26.

I don't claim he's terrible. He's a middle six winger.

What if Smith scores 70 points next year?

What if Nick plays 60 games and puts up 30 points.

What if, what if, what if.

This idea that players don't produce similar numbers each year is funny and some weird idea people have run with that Smith is uniquely inconsistent. He's only off by 10 points or so. His floor/down year would be a good year for Bjugstad.

Bjugstad - 38, 43, 34, 14, 38 -- so up 5, down 9, down 20, up 24+. LOL

 

[Gentle Man]

If Bjuggy gets at least 50-60 more shots....he very likely breaks 20 goals which would be huge for him and us as a team.

He is currently shooting below his career average so he should still see an uptick soon. His current SH% is more likely to increase than it is to decrease in the coming games so that would be huge.

He may be sniffing 50 points also, maybe 47-50.

 

[GrumpyKelly]

If Bjuggy gets at least 50-60 more shots....he very likely breaks 20 goals which would be huge for him and us as a team.

He is currently shooting below his career average so he should still see an uptick soon. His current SH% is more likely to increase than it is to decrease in the coming games so that would be huge.

He may be sniffing 50 points also, maybe 47-50.

Also out of the next seven games six are against opponenents that are out of the playoff race.

He should be getting a lot of opportunities against these teams and if he's hot... yeah, I could see him score a lot.

 

[jvr32]

Again, if Bjugstad can stay healthy he is a useful player. And no, I don't think it's fair to forecast injuries on Bjugstad the same way Smith has decided to bring a half-assed effort every other year in his short career. Which, by the way, is probably the reason why he is already on his fourth team by the age of 26.

I say no. This is such a stupid argument in my opinion. Marchessault is 4 months older than him, now why is it that he's on his fourth team too? (Columbus, Tampa, Florida, Vegas). It could be just unfortunate, circumstantial, that he's got traded three times (Dallas wanted Seguin, Tallon made a bad value trade etc). And nobody is saying he is a cornerstone player. There's worse and older players than Smith, who have never been traded from the team that drafted them.

Oh, but it looks as if Smith sulks too much on the bench. Bad character.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

I showed the last 5 seasons. Pretty good sample, imo. When they both played on the same team, Smith outperformed him. You can't really cherry pick seasons and then pro rate things and say if he was healthy because that's not reality.

Not that big of a difference in 15/16? Smith had harder matchups, played PK (which makes up for some of the 3 more minutes). Bjugstad on the third is playing against lesser competition.

Sorry, but staying healthy has value and is important. If someone is always injured, that matters. You also gotta give credit to guys who manage to stay healthy in this league. If they're both producing good numbers (they're both not), wouldn't you rather take the guy who stays healthy?

Smith is on the top line of a team, leading them to almost a first place finish in the regular season. Hardly a complimentary player. He's not on the wing of one of the best centers in the league, like Bjugstad. Bjugstad playing with Barkov is the definition of a complimentary player. Smith has 60 points with 16 games left.

They're both complimentary players, simple as that. You don't build a team around a guy like Smith do you?
You leave out factors like who Smith was playing with. Putting Bjugstad in a more defensive role that is not suited to his game.

This year you have Gallant who coached Smith and Marchessault for a couple year(s) and knows how to use him where Boughner has limited scope of what Bjugstad is.

Yes Smith has 60pts, Bjugstad would probably have the same amount if he was on the top line all year.
If we're going to blame Nick for injuries then we can blame everyone else like Barkov blocking a shot like a noob and getting injured.

Let's not act like Smith wasn't benched a couple times as well. Injuries play a role, should we have given up on Barkov, Huberdeau and Ekblad as well because they had some?

 

[RainingRats]

They're both complimentary players, simple as that. You don't build a team around a guy like Smith do you?
You leave out factors like who Smith was playing with. Putting Bjugstad in a more defensive role that is not suited to his game.

This year you have Gallant who coached Smith and Marchessault for a couple year(s) and knows how to use him where Boughner has limited scope of what Bjugstad is.

Yes Smith has 60pts, Bjugstad would probably have the same amount if he was on the top line all year.
If we're going to blame Nick for injuries then we can blame everyone else like Barkov blocking a shot like a noob and getting injured.

Let's not act like Smith wasn't benched a couple times as well. Injuries play a role, should we have given up on Barkov, Huberdeau and Ekblad as well because they had some?

The success in Vegas destroys your idea that he is a complimentary player. He's going to likely break 70 points. That's not the production of a complimentary player. He's a top line winger.

So many excuses for Bjugstad and probably and what ifs for him, but only criticism for Smith. Boughner doesn't know how to use him?what.

Smith got benched by the worst coach we've ever had. Are we now siding with Rowe over Smith?

Smith is clearly superior in every facet of the game. That doesn't make Bjugstad a bad player. He's just not as good as Smith.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

The success in Vegas destroys your idea that he is a complimentary player. He's going to likely break 70 points. That's not the production of a complimentary player. He's a top line winger.

So many excuses for Bjugstad and probably and what ifs for him, but only criticism for Smith. Boughner doesn't know how to use him?what.

Smith got benched by the worst coach we've ever had. Are now siding with Rowe over Smith?

Smith is clearly superior in every facet of the game. That doesn't make Bjugstad a bad player. He's just not as good as Smith.

I wish Smith was a UFA so they could sign him to a 5yr deal @ $6.5 million because he's guaranteed to put that up year after year.

Yes and you fail to realize that Bjugstad would have similar numbers to our top guys if he was on the top line ALL year....yes or no?

 

[RainingRats]

I wish Smith was a UFA so they could sign him to a 5yr deal @ $6.5 million because he's guaranteed to put that up year after year.

Yes and you fail to realize that Bjugstad would have similar numbers to our top guys if he was on the top line ALL year....yes or no?

Smith is absolutely worth his contract and now he's outperforming it. Your hypothetical is fine and teams would pay that. That's free agency for ya.

No. Definitely not. This team is on a hot streak, the first line is playing great, a lot of that is because of Barkov, and Bjugstad wouldn't maintain his pace over an 82 game season. You're projecting the best he's every performed over an 82 game season. That's unreasonable.

 

[Gentle Man]

Smith is absolutely worth his contract and now he's outperforming it. Your hypothetical is fine and teams would pay that. That's free agency for ya.

No. Definitely not. This team is on a hot streak, the first line is playing great, a lot of that is because of Barkov, and Bjugstad wouldn't maintain his pace over an 82 game season. You're projecting the best he's every performed over an 82 game season. That's unreasonable.

The 21 games of Dadonov Barkov Bjugstad has....statistically, by the numbers, been better than Huberdeau Barkov Dadonov and Huberdeau Barkov Bjugstad.

Although, Barkov has definitely turned it up a lot recently, it's still interesting to note.

Also....DBB has had, BY FAR, between the 3 lines the MOST defensive zone starts and its not even close. It is a significant jump.

 

[GrumpyKelly]

The success in Vegas destroys your idea that he is a complimentary player. He's going to likely break 70 points. That's not the production of a complimentary player. He's a top line winger.

Whoa... what happened to not forecasting and using what if's? Now Smith is a top line winger? lol

 

[Haj]

Smith is a superior player to Bjugstad. Offensively and defensively. Not sure how styles of play matter that much. Yes they're different, one is also not as good. One manages to stay healthy and play special teams, the other not so much.

I'm happy to see Bjugstad produce but let's not pretend he's on the same level as Smith.

Last 5 season point totals
13/14 - 51, 38
14/15 40, 43
15/16 50, 34
16/17 37, 14
17/18 60,38

Throw in PK responsibilities and being good defensively, and it's hard to see how they're on or near the same level.

And I'm not knocking Bjugstad, for all the criticism he gets, and a lot of it is deserved, we're winning with him on the top line, he's producing, and Barkov and Dadonov are putting up nice numbers. He's also not a defensive liability and has made some nice defensive plays lately.

I agree with you that Smith is the better player right now. He will also likely be a better player in the future.

However, there is a small chance that Bjugstad could become a more consistent goal scorer due to his size and puck protection.
- This is his first season at wing
- This is the first time he has significant ice time with Barkov
- He does not get a lot of Power Play Time

It will be interesting to see how he does with Barkov over the course of an entire season.

If he stays on the first line, it allows Borgstrom, Tippet to play on the 3rd.

Mcginn and Mamin could move down to line 4.

 

[SoupyFIN]

Bjugs needs to stay healthy, I think the injuries really did him in.

The injuries played a huge role no doubt, but I have another theory. Injuries aside, what was the one thing Bjugstad was known for prior to this season? Floating. Lazy half-assed defensive effort, that made him look like a beer league player on most nights. Now what is different this season compared to past seasons? Two things. New coach and the said coach slotting him primarily as a winger. When Boughner was announced as the new coach, he said that he'd watched a lot of tape of Panthers games and had many ideas on how to improve the line-up. Could it be that Boughner was Bjugstad's first NHL coach that told him like it is and he took it to heart to improve (and what an improvement it has been) that part of his game? I always found it weird how Gallant never benched Bjugs, even when he was playing really poorly. Maybe the injuries played a part, that it was a cop out for the coaches not to push him harder.

 

[RainingRats]

Whoa... what happened to not forecasting and using what if's? Now Smith is a top line winger? lol

Forecasting for this season is reasonable based on his entire season. Bjugstad forecasting into next season based on a 15 game stretch is not.

Yeah, he's proven himself to be that.

 

[GrumpyKelly]

Forecasting for this season is reasonable based on his entire season. Bjugstad forecasting into next season based on a 15 game stretch is not.

Yeah, he's proven himself to be that.

So he'll be that next year too?

 

[RainingRats]

I agree with you that Smith is the better player right now. He will also likely be a better player in the future.

However, there is a small chance that Bjugstad could become a more consistent goal scorer due to his size and puck protection.
- This is his first season at wing
- This is the first time he has significant ice time with Barkov
- He does not get a lot of Power Play Time

It will be interesting to see how he does with Barkov over the course of an entire season.

If he stays on the first line, it allows Borgstrom, Tippet to play on the 3rd.

Mcginn and Mamin could move down to line 4.

He's at wing because he couldn't hack it at center and lost the role. He's not on the first PP because there are better options. It's not outside forces that put him in this position, it's Bjugtsad.

He's doing well on Barkov's wing and I hope he can continue but Smith would be producing more and be a better player on this team.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Smith is absolutely worth his contract and now he's outperforming it. Your hypothetical is fine and teams would pay that. That's free agency for ya.

No. Definitely not. This team is on a hot streak, the first line is playing great, a lot of that is because of Barkov, and Bjugstad wouldn't maintain his pace over an 82 game season. You're projecting the best he's every performed over an 82 game season. That's unreasonable.

Well I'm glad it wasn't us willing to pay that then.

you say not to project but you're doing the same thing with Smith...

"DEFINITELY NOT"...how can you be so sure? Feel like he's played 35-40 games in the top 6 and the numbers would come in around 55-65pts....

 

[RainingRats]

So he'll be that next year too?

Smith, yes.

 

[RainingRats]

Well I'm glad it wasn't us willing to pay that then.

you say not to project but you're doing the same thing with Smith...

"DEFINITELY NOT"...how can you be so sure? Feel like he's played 35-40 games in the top 6 and the numbers would come in around 55-65pts....

Because everything would have to go right for him to hit that.

 

[Gentle Man]

He's at wing because he couldn't hack it at center and lost the role. He's not on the first PP because there are better options. It's not outside forces that put him in this position, it's Bjugtsad.

He's doing well on Barkov's wing and I hope he can continue but Smith would be producing more and be a better player on this team.

Well. Let me ask you this.

Who has played better this year, Karlsson or Trocheck? As Smith would likely be playing with Trocheck correct? You think Smith puts up Vegas numbers playing with Trocheck?

Where neither Huberdeau (better than Smith) or Dadonov (close) have failed.

Maybe Smith Trocheck and Jokinen was so succesful because Jokinen was really really good that year. Smith and Trocheck were bad together last year, snakebitten yes, but bad overall.

Smith is definitely better than Bjugstad. 10000% agree and is by far the biggest loss in the expansion just for PK-ing alone.

But, Id pump the breaks on saying Smith would have similar stats on the Panthers. Trocheck needs some culpability here. His play has changed the past two years

 

[GrumpyKelly]

Smith, yes.

So me projecting Smith having an off-year next year again, like he has in the past, is off-bounds but you projecting him to continue being a top line winger based on this season is ok?

Am I getting this right?

 

[RainingRats]

So me projecting Smith having an off-year next year again, like he has in the past, is off-bounds but you projecting him to continue being a top line winger based on this season is ok?

Am I getting this right?

Smith has always been a top 6 forward, now he's playing in his prime, top line minutes and producing like a top line player. March is also a top line forward. Do you disagree? Sometimes players need opportunities to shine.

Bjugstad went like 19 games without a goal. His success is because of Barkov and playing on the top line. He's not the reason the top line is having success. Playing on the top line doesn't make you a top line winger, otherwise Zach Hyman would be. If you want to project the best #'s he's ever had over a 15 game or so stretch onto next season and think that's totally reasonable, be my guest. No reasonable person would agree with that.