HF Habs: The official 2023-2024 tank thread

[G0bias]

Nylander would be one. Maybe Keller. Or with the Canes pushing for Karlsson and Aho about to hit UFA, I wonder if one of Svechnikov or Necas could become an option.

 

[Toene]

Problem with a young team and pipeline like the Habs have is that you don't really know what you're trading away. Guhle+ would be the ask from most teams as a return for their star player, and I wouldnt be comfortable trading him because I believe he'll blossom in the next few years into an all-star defenseman. For Draisaitl I'd be tempted, but even then, a 1D is really freaking valuable and I think KG will be one. His defensive contribution is already top-notch and I suspect he's got more offensive talent hidden in him. I hope he plays more PP because he has a bomb of a shot and he's so smart at navigating the blue-line.

 

[SlafySZN]

Drai will decline rapidly as is speed declines. See Gallagher.



Nylander will have an excellent 27 to 32 years old like his dad, in fact he might have his biggest years there and Nylander is exactly what we need. Our Marian Hossa.

Draisaitl has high IQ. He’ll still be good.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Problem with a young team and pipeline like the Habs have is that you don't really know what you're trading away. Guhle+ would be the ask from most teams as a return for their star player, and I wouldnt be comfortable trading him because I believe he'll blossom in the next few years into an all-star defenseman. For Draisaitl I'd be tempted, but even then, a 1D is really freaking valuable and I think KG will be one. His defensive contribution is already top-notch and I suspect he's got more offensive talent hidden in him. I hope he plays more PP because he has a bomb of a shot and he's so smart at navigating the blue-line.

Most of the times those players don't get the return people think they will get.

Like the best piece in the Meier deal was a late first guy, it was just quantity of assets more than anything.

The Mark Stone trade was so bad.

 

[NotProkofievian]

What on earth is going on in this thread lol

 

[WeThreeKings]

What on earth is going on in this thread lol

Catton around.

 

[Schooner Guy]

Draisaitl has high IQ. He’ll still be good.

And size. And puck skills. And creativity.

Drai will be fine.

 

[Kaladin]

I'd crawl over burning hot coals slowly for a chance to see Drai in a Habs jersey in the playoffs.

Stuff of dreams.

 

[SOLR]

And size. And puck skills. And creativity.

Drai will be fine.

He'll be fine for the next 3 years, if you get him you have to sign him 8 years for max salary. High probability you are in trouble by year 5.

 

[Schooner Guy]

He'll be fine for the next 3 years, if you get him you have to sign him 8 years for max salary. High probability you are in trouble by year 5.

I'd take 2/3 of Draisaitl. His tools, drive and performance are so elite that any fall-off during those years will still leave him as a star NHL player.

 

[NeptunesTrident]

Arizona will need to take cap to reach the floor so trade them Drai after 5 years. Works for everyone

 

[Andrei79]

Arizona will need to take cap to reach the floor so trade them Drai after 5 years. Works for everyone

Houston won't have any cap issues imo.

 

[Habs Icing]

I'd crawl over burning hot coals slowly for a chance to see Drai in a Habs jersey in the playoffs.

Stuff of dreams.

I'd pay to see that.

 

[Gustave]

How are we getting Drai exactly? Humor me for a second.

 

[Skip Bayless]

How are we getting Drai exactly? Humor me for a second.

Vibes

 

[DAChampion]

That's very bare compared to the best teams in terms of forward prospects. We are in the bottom tier.

Go see Buffalo...Benson, Savoie and Kulich not in the NHL yet, with Quinn and Peterka just getting started. Our prospects are middle 6 players / roles players. For a rebuilding team this ain't enough.

Yes our core is young, but it has not proven it can lead a winning offense yet.

The Habs don't have an elite forward in their prospect pool, but they will have the assets to acquire one by trade, they can get one with their 2024 draft pick, and they can get one with Calgary 's 2025 draft pick.

 

[blueberry]

The Habs don't have an elite forward in their prospect pool, but they will have the assets to acquire one by trade, they can get one with their 2024 draft pick, and they can get one with Calgary 's 2025 draft pick.

How often do elite forwards get moved? even for good draft picks. Maybe if the guy is having trouble with his team but then it's always an auction and it costs even more. If you want a really good player you kinda got to draft him.

 

[DAChampion]

How often do elite forwards get moved? even for good draft picks. Maybe if the guy is having trouble with his team but then it's always an auction and it costs even more. If you want a really good player you kinda got to draft him.

Elite forwards are moved every year.

 

[AHShadow]

That's very bare compared to the best teams in terms of forward prospects. We are in the bottom tier.

Go see Buffalo...Benson, Savoie and Kulich not in the NHL yet, with Quinn and Peterka just getting started. Our prospects are middle 6 players / roles players. For a rebuilding team this ain't enough.

Yes our core is young, but it has not proven it can lead a winning offense yet.

You know what's actually bullish about this? All of these picks were all 8+ picks from Buffalo.

As @Goldenhands mentioned, Buffalo is more advanced in their rebuild than us and solidified their defense through Power and Dahlin before getting Benson, Savoie and Kulich. Obviously Reinbacher is not Dahlin (could be as good as Power though if he hits his ceiling), but this also means we still have 2-3 years to get prospects that are as good as what Buffalo has today.

We are very likely to get another top 10 pick this year and we can potentially get 2 top ~10 picks next year with ours + Calgary if they continue trending downwards.

 

[SOLR]

You know what's actually bullish about this? All of these picks were all 8+ picks from Buffalo.

As @Goldenhands mentioned, Buffalo is more advanced in their rebuild than us and solidified their defense through Power and Dahlin before getting Benson, Savoie and Kulich. Obviously Reinbacher is not Dahlin (could be as good as Power though if he hits his ceiling), but this also means we still have 2-3 years to get prospects that are as good as what Buffalo has today.

We are very likely to get another top 10 pick this year and we can potentially get 2 top ~10 picks next year with ours + Calgary if they continue trending downwards.

Sure, they are more advanced, but we also made choices (Dach/Newhook) with our first rounders, which advances our rebuild to about the same kind of stage, probably 1 year behind still. My argument is not that I expect us to have a comparable prospect pool as a long-term tanking team; my argument is that we should be more aggressive with selling and getting more picks. The risk with what Hugo is doing is an "self-destructing rebuild," like Edmonton and Buffalo did in the first wave of their rebuild. They have both tanked 8 years because they were too anxious to get back, too soon, they tried too many shortcuts, and they never had the depth to cross the chasm.

This can lead to a worse situation. Imagine this rebuild fails, Suzuki and Dach are not as good as we think they are, the long-term mess we'd be in.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Sure, they are more advanced, but we also made choices (Dach/Newhook) with our first rounders, which advances our rebuild to about the same kind of stage, probably 1 year behind still. My argument is not that I expect us to have a comparable prospect pool as a long-term tanking team; my argument is that we should be more aggressive with selling and getting more picks. The risk with what Hugo is doing is an "self-destructing rebuild," like Edmonton and Buffalo did in the first wave of their rebuild. They have both tanked 8 years because they were too anxious to get back, too soon, they tried too many shortcuts, and they never had the depth to cross the chasm.

This can lead to a worse situation. Imagine this rebuild fails, Suzuki and Dach are not as good as we think they are, the long-term mess we'd be in.

What's left to sell?

Anderson will be done when the cap increases.
Dvorak will be traded at the deadline.
Hoffman might garner a late round pick at 50% retention.
Armia is immovable until the final year of his deal and again isn't bringing anything back.

I'm sure they'll trade Savard when the time is right.

But they already did most of their selling.

 

[SOLR]

What's left to sell?

Anderson will be done when the cap increases.
Dvorak will be traded at the deadline.
Hoffman might garner a late round pick at 50% retention.
Armia is immovable until the final year of his deal and again isn't bringing anything back.

I'm sure they'll trade Savard when the time is right.

But they already did most of their selling.

I don't disagree, but they could have moved to sell Anderson earlier, for example.

For the same reasons as the Newhook/Dach trades, assets in our pockets are better than future assets that might not materialize.

 

[WeThreeKings]

I don't disagree, but they could have moved to sell Anderson earlier, for example.

For the same reasons as the Newhook/Dach trades, assets in our pockets are better than future assets that might not materialize.

I'm not sure if they could have.. only Hughes knows, but I feel like his performance relative to his contract and the salary cap situation across the league, that the return wasn't really there.

I'd have liked to have moved him as well but I'm just not sure how viable its been to do so.

 

[AHShadow]

Man I'm still so confused when I look at those conditions...

So Montreal can choose the 2024 CGY 1st pick if its between 20 and 32 (won't happen, they'll bet on CGY sucking in 2025)

But if CGY pick is top 10 in 2025 and FLA is not (good chances), we receive FLA pick, which could be 24+.

So how is it possible we get a top 10 CGY pick in 2025?

FLA will not imo be a lottery pick in 2025 therefore all those other subconditions of their pick dont matter.

Haven't looked in a while, but I'm pretty sure that the 2025 pick is only top 1 protected. So unless they win the lottery, we should be able to keep their pick and if not I think we get their 2026 pick and their 2025 3rd round pick to compensate.

Sure, they are more advanced, but we also made choices (Dach/Newhook) with our first rounders, which advances our rebuild to about the same kind of stage, probably 1 year behind still. My argument is not that I expect us to have a comparable prospect pool as a long-term tanking team; my argument is that we should be more aggressive with selling and getting more picks. The risk with what Hugo is doing is an "self-destructing rebuild," like Edmonton and Buffalo did in the first wave of their rebuild. They have both tanked 8 years because they were too anxious to get back, too soon, they tried too many shortcuts, and they never had the depth to cross the chasm.

This can lead to a worse situation. Imagine this rebuild fails, Suzuki and Dach are not as good as we think they are, the long-term mess we'd be in.

I wasn't ecstatic with the Dach trade last year, since I would've preferred Nazar at 13 instead, but after a year, the trade is looking amazing and Dach can possibly turn into a 1a or 1b center for us.

Similarly, I do think we overpaid a bit for Newhook, but let's see how he does this first season under MSL and Nicholas helping out.

I actually feel Edmonton and Buffalo are the sort of teams that have been continuously tanking for the past 8 years and only recently got out of it (both starting from the McDavid/Eichel drafts). Neither team has done what the Habs have been doing, so I don't think they're a good example of teams that have tried to accelerate their rebuild.

I know Hughes doesn't want to be tanking for 5 years, but I still think we have at least 2 years of being a bottom 15 team in the league and only after that would we potentially try to make playoffs. And even then, we will probably struggle for 2-3 years and might get a high draft pick as well.

We're still missing a high-end forward or 2 to really be competitive, but I still think we have some time to get there. In the meantime, I do believe we have really good (and hopefully great) pieces for our team.

 

[Simarino]

Sure, they are more advanced, but we also made choices (Dach/Newhook) with our first rounders, which advances our rebuild to about the same kind of stage, probably 1 year behind still. My argument is not that I expect us to have a comparable prospect pool as a long-term tanking team; my argument is that we should be more aggressive with selling and getting more picks. The risk with what Hugo is doing is an "self-destructing rebuild," like Edmonton and Buffalo did in the first wave of their rebuild. They have both tanked 8 years because they were too anxious to get back, too soon, they tried too many shortcuts, and they never had the depth to cross the chasm.

This can lead to a worse situation. Imagine this rebuild fails, Suzuki and Dach are not as good as we think they are, the long-term mess we'd be in.

For me, the Buffalo and Edmonton rebuild took forever not because they try to take short cut but because they didn’t surround their young players with good veteran presence, and these young players felt into bad habits.