Blue Jays Discussion: The off-season is on. (Robbie Ray wins AL Cy Young)
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Eyedea
The Legend Continues
In hindsight you don't target Hand but Adams was always expendable. He's got a good eye at the plate but too many holes in his swing. Plus (SSS but reports aren't glowing to begin with) his defence is below average and he's one of the worst rated framers in the league.
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kb
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- Aug 28, 2009
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Oh definitely, but I was just speaking to the amount of depth the Jays had at C more than the trade itself. Jays are loaded at C.
Kurtz
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- Jul 17, 2005
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kb
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- Aug 28, 2009
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Yeah.....seems quite low. Just ballparking the arb figures, and his first couple FA years comes up way above that.
I wonder if there is something going on there. It's the 2nd time he's been here in the last few weeks and unless he just really loves the city I can't think of many other reasons to keep coming back this time of year.
trellaine201
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phillipmike
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- Oct 27, 2009
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His girlfriend still lives here and she just had his kid. Said he will be spending most of the off-season here with them.
trellaine201
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Canada4Gold
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- Dec 22, 2010
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This about Donaldson? He's got 2 years left at a not so reasonable salary. 21 million each year with an option year with an 8 million buyout. 50 million total. The Twins would have to eat a bunch of that or take Grichuk or both.
Eyedea
The Legend Continues
200m guaranteed and entering free agent at age 30 sounds pretty good to me. Trout for instance made 190m by age 30 and has 334m in future salaries. And then Tatis has 338m in future salaries but committed to 118m by age 30 (6/220 beyond that). Franco would be in line for another super contract immediately after this one.
And you get a guaranteed 200M. He gets injured or flames out, he still gets set for life.
Kurtz
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That's just so rare for a hitter to sustain such a catastrophic injury or for a prospect of that ilk to flame out. He'd be better off signing for 6/7 - still more than set for life, but isn't giving up those monster contract years on the back end.
Maybe if he gets the full $200 I could see the allure, but if it's closer to the lower end and $150, he'd be a fool imo.
LeafChief
Matthew Knies Enthusiast
No!
I love JD and he loves Toronto. But if we are winning now, it isn't with JD. Also, Minnesota doesn't do that trade (giving up a 3B for an OF creating a hole at 3B with no benefit). Basically, we would then need to sign an OF (who will either be a significant downgrade or will make approximately the same money or more) for the benefit of a 3B who appears to be declining fast.
LeafChief
Matthew Knies Enthusiast
I can't argue with you lol I don't know a lot about the other teams in baseball.
I just love JD!
We all love him and wish the best for him. In the past 4 years (taking him back to 2017 when he was a big part of our playoff team), he's finished 17th, 19th, 8th, and 29th in fWAR among 3B (going backwards).
phillipmike
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phillipmike
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Garlando
Registered User
Here are a few of my ideal Blue Jays free agent targets:
SP Robbie Ray – The AL Cy Young Award winner reached new levels in 2021 as a Blue Jay and I think there’s a good bit of mutual interest to have Ray back as a rotation stalwart for this competitive window. Ray made an adjustment to throw more fastballs over the plate this past year & his slider was excellent. While I think there should be some regression of some kind expected (90% LOB rate!), Ray’s ability to generate whiffs at an elite rate (15.5 SwStr% which was 3rd best in baseball) gives him a very high ceiling. If the fastball command sticks, he can continue getting batters to chase the slider below the zone (really helps his CSW% as he doesn’t get a lot of called strikes for some reason), and go deep in games, then he should be a strong asset worth holding onto.
SP Alex Wood – Durability has been a concern the last few years, but from a skills perspective, Alex Wood is a highly intriguing lefty who likely won’t demand a big contract. He was excellent this past year, posting a 3.83 ERA supported by a 3.48 FIP and 3.60 SIERA, all of which point to him being a similar level of talent as a guy like Jose Berrios. Wood is a heavy groundball pitcher who can get outs both by managing contact (50.8% GB rate + 86th percentile barrel suppression) and also generating called strikes at an elite rate. In fact, his 32.9 CSW% actually ranked 5th best in baseball, ahead of names like Aaron Nola, Walker Buehler, Robbie Ray, Brandon Woodruff, Yu Darvish, etc. Add in that he limits walks really well and has been a consistent sub-1.00 HR/9 guy, and it’s clear that he’s a high floor option given health that can contribute as a top 30-ish starter when on.
RP Hector Neris – One of the best whiff factories is baseball thanks to mid-90’s heat and a downright nasty splitter. He’s coming off a year in which he posted a 3.63 ERA across 74.1 innings supported by an 11.87 K/9 and a 3.87 BB/9. He’s notoriously been HR prone, and he does groove his fastball more than ideal, but I think he could be an approach change away from being elite elite. His 3.27 SIERA already suggests he is really good, but I think if he learns to trust his fastball up more to set up the splitter low, he will become truly lights out. His bat missing ability is already rare, he was top 10 in swinging-strike rate, and he ranked in the top 5% in terms of xBA. I think he would be a great addition to the back of the bullpen at a relative bargain (projected for 2 years for $15 million).
2B/3B Eduardo Escobar – Regardless of the outcome of Semien re-signing or someone else coming in to play at 2B, I think Escobar is an interesting player who separates himself from other free-agent options due to his combination of consistent performance, positional flexibility, and financial commitment. Take away the pandemic shortened 2020 season, and you can see that Escobar has been a consistent 3.0 WAR player who features power and defense at multiple positions. His 2021 featured a .253/.314/.472 batting line with 28 HRs while striking out just 20.7% of the time, culminating in a slightly above-average 107 wRC+. His heavy pulled-flyball approach is very conducive to HR power, and bringing him into the Rogers Centre and AL East could really help him (he had 28 HRs last year compared to 36.8 xHRs). Also of note, he’s a switch hitter so he could balance the lineup with all of the righties currently. Do know that he’s much better vs lefty pitchers as he posted a 129 wRC+ against them last year compared to a league-average 98 wRC+ against righties. His ability to be a positive defensive player at both 2nd and 3rd base also would give the Jays positional flexibility to play Biggio/Espinal when and where they fit best. His 2 year, $20 Million contract prediction would fit well too with Groshans and Orelvis Martinez’s timeline.
2B/SS – Javier Baez – I’m not a fan of Baez’s profile analytically, he has a terrible approach at the plate, striking out over a 3rd of the time and barely getting on base via walks. That’s always a red flag for me. On the plus side though, he is a wonderful defender and base runner who has elite bat speed and power potential. He also is an elite athlete and magnetic personality who would be straight-up fun to watch up the middle. Due to the low walk rate and many strikeouts, his offensive value is highly BABIP volatile but all told he was worth an above-average 116 wRC+ last year while managing a .265/.319/.494 batting line and 31 HRs. And similarly to Escobar above, if you take out the pandemic shortened season of 2020, he’s been an above-average hitter consistently (131,112, 55, and 116 wRC+ marks the last 4 years) which along with his base running make him a highly valuable player (career-best is 5.4 fWAR which highlights the immense ceiling with him). The concern to me is the $ and year commitment due to the low floor he offers due to his plate approach. On the plus side, he’s not tied to a qualifying offer so he wouldn’t cost a draft pick to sign. If he can be brought in for a reasonable contract, he could be a high risk/high reward alternative to Semien.
SP Robbie Ray – The AL Cy Young Award winner reached new levels in 2021 as a Blue Jay and I think there’s a good bit of mutual interest to have Ray back as a rotation stalwart for this competitive window. Ray made an adjustment to throw more fastballs over the plate this past year & his slider was excellent. While I think there should be some regression of some kind expected (90% LOB rate!), Ray’s ability to generate whiffs at an elite rate (15.5 SwStr% which was 3rd best in baseball) gives him a very high ceiling. If the fastball command sticks, he can continue getting batters to chase the slider below the zone (really helps his CSW% as he doesn’t get a lot of called strikes for some reason), and go deep in games, then he should be a strong asset worth holding onto.
SP Alex Wood – Durability has been a concern the last few years, but from a skills perspective, Alex Wood is a highly intriguing lefty who likely won’t demand a big contract. He was excellent this past year, posting a 3.83 ERA supported by a 3.48 FIP and 3.60 SIERA, all of which point to him being a similar level of talent as a guy like Jose Berrios. Wood is a heavy groundball pitcher who can get outs both by managing contact (50.8% GB rate + 86th percentile barrel suppression) and also generating called strikes at an elite rate. In fact, his 32.9 CSW% actually ranked 5th best in baseball, ahead of names like Aaron Nola, Walker Buehler, Robbie Ray, Brandon Woodruff, Yu Darvish, etc. Add in that he limits walks really well and has been a consistent sub-1.00 HR/9 guy, and it’s clear that he’s a high floor option given health that can contribute as a top 30-ish starter when on.
RP Hector Neris – One of the best whiff factories is baseball thanks to mid-90’s heat and a downright nasty splitter. He’s coming off a year in which he posted a 3.63 ERA across 74.1 innings supported by an 11.87 K/9 and a 3.87 BB/9. He’s notoriously been HR prone, and he does groove his fastball more than ideal, but I think he could be an approach change away from being elite elite. His 3.27 SIERA already suggests he is really good, but I think if he learns to trust his fastball up more to set up the splitter low, he will become truly lights out. His bat missing ability is already rare, he was top 10 in swinging-strike rate, and he ranked in the top 5% in terms of xBA. I think he would be a great addition to the back of the bullpen at a relative bargain (projected for 2 years for $15 million).
2B/3B Eduardo Escobar – Regardless of the outcome of Semien re-signing or someone else coming in to play at 2B, I think Escobar is an interesting player who separates himself from other free-agent options due to his combination of consistent performance, positional flexibility, and financial commitment. Take away the pandemic shortened 2020 season, and you can see that Escobar has been a consistent 3.0 WAR player who features power and defense at multiple positions. His 2021 featured a .253/.314/.472 batting line with 28 HRs while striking out just 20.7% of the time, culminating in a slightly above-average 107 wRC+. His heavy pulled-flyball approach is very conducive to HR power, and bringing him into the Rogers Centre and AL East could really help him (he had 28 HRs last year compared to 36.8 xHRs). Also of note, he’s a switch hitter so he could balance the lineup with all of the righties currently. Do know that he’s much better vs lefty pitchers as he posted a 129 wRC+ against them last year compared to a league-average 98 wRC+ against righties. His ability to be a positive defensive player at both 2nd and 3rd base also would give the Jays positional flexibility to play Biggio/Espinal when and where they fit best. His 2 year, $20 Million contract prediction would fit well too with Groshans and Orelvis Martinez’s timeline.
2B/SS – Javier Baez – I’m not a fan of Baez’s profile analytically, he has a terrible approach at the plate, striking out over a 3rd of the time and barely getting on base via walks. That’s always a red flag for me. On the plus side though, he is a wonderful defender and base runner who has elite bat speed and power potential. He also is an elite athlete and magnetic personality who would be straight-up fun to watch up the middle. Due to the low walk rate and many strikeouts, his offensive value is highly BABIP volatile but all told he was worth an above-average 116 wRC+ last year while managing a .265/.319/.494 batting line and 31 HRs. And similarly to Escobar above, if you take out the pandemic shortened season of 2020, he’s been an above-average hitter consistently (131,112, 55, and 116 wRC+ marks the last 4 years) which along with his base running make him a highly valuable player (career-best is 5.4 fWAR which highlights the immense ceiling with him). The concern to me is the $ and year commitment due to the low floor he offers due to his plate approach. On the plus side, he’s not tied to a qualifying offer so he wouldn’t cost a draft pick to sign. If he can be brought in for a reasonable contract, he could be a high risk/high reward alternative to Semien.
Canada4Gold
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- Dec 22, 2010
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Really? He looks like a run of the mill reliever to me. Sure he had a good ERA and WHIP this year for the first time finally but the K rate is below average and the BB rate while decent in Buffalo for his 17 innings there he was walking 4.5 per 9 in NH. I wouldn't even consider putting him on the 40 and I'm not concerned he gets taken at all. If he does I don't even give it a second thought TBH.
ShaneFalco
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