GDT: "The object of war is not to die for your team, but to make the other bastard die for his." (Game #3 - Oct. 13) Battle of Alberta [6pm MT, 3am EEST]

[Rubi]

Ehhhhhh

I’d have to see the overtop angle, but I’m not seeing it. Anyways, I won’t press this any further because f*** the oilers and I don’t really give af.

Here ya go...

 

[super6646]

Here ya go...

Okay that’s actually pretty ironclad. Thanks for the overhead view.

 

[joescores]

Just finishing watching. Ras looked like Zary on that goal what a great game by him.

Glad Savard is gone; now Toronto is struggling.

Just nice to see us crush the Oil.

Such an unexpected nice feel being 3-0 when expecting to be 0-3. Craziness.

So very true about Savard being gone.

 

[King In The North]

I don't know if it's funny or sad that the Oilers are accustomed to a shit start, firing a coach and hoping to go on another unsustainable run.

 

[Anglesmith]

I don't know if it's funny or sad that the Oilers are accustomed to a shit start, firing a coach and hoping to go on another unsustainable run.

The Oilers are always at one of the two extremes: either an unstoppable juggernaut or a laughing stock. No middle ground. Must be exhausting as a fan tbh.

 

[Khrox]

Watched this game today. Had to laugh so hard when they tried to say the reason the Oilers were struggling is "they played too many pre-season games and didn't have enough practice time to learn systems" as if every team didn't also play the same number of games and had the same amount of practice time.

 

[Volica]

Fun to be 3-0.
I don't think Calgary can sustain this pace, but it's really fun for the time being!

This team does look like it's having fun though. Like the guys seem to be out there having fun, they have each others' back; playing well structured hockey.

I've probably seen enough to think that the worst they'll do it probably in the 7-12 range at the draft. Which bodes well for Montreal.

 

[Kahvi]

Fun to be 3-0.
I don't think Calgary can sustain this pace, but it's really fun for the time being!

This team does look like it's having fun though. Like the guys seem to be out there having fun, they have each others' back; playing well structured hockey.

I've probably seen enough to think that the worst they'll do it probably in the 7-12 range at the draft. Which bodes well for Montreal.

Agree, they are not winning because of skill, they are winning because of hard work and giving 100%. It's not gonna last a full season and the eventual drop in play due to fatigue might be steep. But I'll enjoy this as long as it lasts.

 

[Lunatik]

Agree, they are not winning because of skill, they are winning because of hard work and giving 100%. It's not gonna last a full season and the eventual drop in play due to fatigue might be steep. But I'll enjoy this as long as it lasts.

the defense is going to catch up with us IMO, especially when we start sustaining some injuries. Also look at our opponents, season opener in Vancouver without their #1 goalie, we shouldn't have won but rallied for an injured teammate.... Philly on a night dedicated to Johnny... and then our #1 rival... these might be the 3 of the 5 most emotional games of the season for our guys (the two vs Columbus being the other 2)

 

[Figgy44]

the defense is going to catch up with us IMO, especially when we start sustaining some injuries. Also look at our opponents, season opener in Vancouver without their #1 goalie, we shouldn't have won but rallied for an injured teammate.... Philly on a night dedicated to Johnny... and then our #1 rival... these might be the 3 of the 5 most emotional games of the season for our guys (the two vs Columbus being the other 2)

Yeah, but when you taste that win streak, you might somehow keep finding more to keep playing hard. Then you get gassed in the playoffs. (ie: 2014-2015.)

 

[Lunatik]

Yeah, but when you taste that win streak, you might somehow keep finding more to keep playing hard. Then you get gassed in the playoffs. (ie: 2014-2015.)

I think that is extremely unlikely. Our defense is going to be f***ing terrible.

 

[Nanuuk]

Flames were 5-1-1 in the preseason and are now 3-0-0 in the regular season.

While I'm not planning a parade it appears a trend is developing. Not so much the record, but the underlying systems and effort of a team that is clearly not as bad as some people think.

If the system play and the identity of hard work and pace has taken hold, this Flames team will go as far as the goaltending will take us.

And I'm confident about that too. Wolf looked very much like a seasoned NHL pro against the Flyers. Vladar looked very much like a seasoned NHL pro against the Oilers.

Both had very good mechanics. Playing to to the top of the crease, covering angles, rebound control.

And being the underdog instills a fighting spirit, the us against the world mentality.

This group will be fun to watch this year.

 

[Figgy44]

I think that is extremely unlikely. Our defense is going to be f***ing terrible.

Currently not much worse than 14-15 Flames defense... and they somehow got into the second round on the backs of Brodie, Wideman, Russell and Engelland (Gio injured at around half way).

It'd be its own insanity if it's somehow a repeat of 14-15 and we go to ploffs and the Oilers win another lottery ball this season.

 

[Kahvi]

Flames were 5-1-1 in the preseason and are now 3-0-0 in the regular season.

While I'm not planning a parade it appears a trend is developing. Not so much the record, but the underlying systems and effort of a team that is clearly not as bad as some people think.

If the system play and the identity of hard work and pace has taken hold, this Flames team will go as far as the goaltending will take us.

And I'm confident about that too. Wolf looked very much like a seasoned NHL pro against the Flyers. Vladar looked very much like a seasoned NHL pro against the Oilers.

Both had very good mechanics. Playing to to the top of the crease, covering angles, rebound control.

And being the underdog instills a fighting spirit, the us against the world mentality.

This group will be fun to watch this year.

And that's why scorched earth rebuild is often not a good thing. You need good prospects, but you need to show them what it takes to win.

 

[Lunatik]

Currently not much worse than 14-15 Flames defense... and they somehow got into the second round on the backs of Brodie, Wideman, Russell and Engelland (Gio injured at around half way).

It'd be its own insanity if it's somehow a repeat of 14-15 and we go to ploffs and the Oilers win another lottery ball this season.

we were also one of the highest scoring teams in the league that year, comparing this team to that one is a fools errand... and that defense was still SIGNIFICANTLY better. Even after Gio was hurt, we had 3 legit top 4 defensemen. We have 2 starting the year.

 

[Yepthatsme]

I think that is extremely unlikely. Our defense is going to be f***ing terrible.

Honestly the defense is shaping up to not actually be god awful with how good Bahl as well as his pair have looked out of the gates.

Bahl-Andersson: 55.9 xG%, 2.05 xGA/60,
Weegar-Miromanov 37.5 xG%, 2.9 xGA/60
Bean-Pachal 58.8 xG%, 1.62 xGA/60

Miromanov’s defensive deficiencies are really the only part that’s looked out of place in that top 4 so far, everyone else has looked pretty great and the underlyings back it up. The crazy part to is this actually could’ve been somewhat predicted looking at all of our additions underlying from the previous year, they were all excellent. Comparing them against players with a min 500 minutes played on their teams:

Bahl: 52.28 xG% (4th out of 7), 2.37 xGA/60 (1st)
Bean: 45.5 xG% (5th out of 7), 2.82 xGA/60 (3rd)

As well as the guys results who finished last season with us:

Miromanov: 57.8 xGF%, 2.23 xGA/60
Pachal: 51.14 xGF%, 2.21 xGA/60

Really paints a picture that we added a lot of guys without much flash but who are all capable of giving you reliable and sound defensive minutes (with the exception of Miro, who is the opposite). They all showed well or atleast relatively well on the team they were on in similar roles that they’re currently playing.

 

[Figgy44]

we were also one of the highest scoring teams in the league that year, comparing this team to that one is a fools errand... and that defense was still SIGNIFICANTLY better. Even after Gio was hurt, we had 3 legit top 4 defensemen. We have 2 starting the year.

Hmm... semantics? Russell was a 4/5, Engelland was a 5/6, Wideman was a flawed 3/4 that needed the right partner (closer to a 4/5), Brodie a solid 2/3 though. Russell, Wideman and Engelland elevated their games after Gio went down though. Gio was a solid #1 though, can't overlook that.

This season assuming no major injuries, we're looking at Weegar and Andersson as solid 2/3s, Bahl as much as I don't like how he looks when playing, statistically I think is a solid #4 with growth potential. Everyone else is more like 5/6 but again have growth potential to be solid 4/5 calibre (Bean, Pachal, Miromanov etc.).

I think it could end up being comparable to 14-15 if circumstances are right.

We were high scoring because we scored by committee. Other teams sorta ignored our guys which gave them all sorts of great scoring chances, especially off the rush.

I'm not necessarily saying we will look and perform identical to 14-15. I'm saying I think we have the right stuff to create something surprising similar to 14-15.

 

[Lunatik]

Hmm... semantics? Russell was a 4/5, Engelland was a 5/6, Wideman was a flawed 3/4 that needed the right partner (closer to a 4/5), Brodie a solid 2/3 though. Russell, Wideman and Engelland elevated their games after Gio went down though. Gio was a solid #1 though, can't overlook that.

This season assuming no major injuries, we're looking at Weegar and Andersson as solid 2/3s, Bahl as much as I don't like how he looks when playing, statistically I think is a solid #4 with growth potential. Everyone else is more like 5/6 but again have growth potential to be solid 4/5 calibre (Bean, Pachal, Miromanov etc.).

I think it could end up being comparable to 14-15 if circumstances are right.

We were high scoring because we scored by committee. Other teams sorta ignored our guys which gave them all sorts of great scoring chances, especially off the rush.

I'm not necessarily saying we will look and perform identical to 14-15. I'm saying I think we have the right stuff to create something surprising similar to 14-15.

You're underrating Russell IMO, he was better than Wideman. I also think you are overrating the current defense. Bahl is a 3rd pairing, that we hope will grow into a top 4, but if we're really honest, Miro, Pachal, Bean, Barrie are all #6s at best IMO

Honestly the defense is shaping up to not actually be god awful with how good Bahl as well as his pair have looked out of the gates.

Bahl-Andersson: 55.9 xG%, 2.05 xGA/60,
Weegar-Miromanov 37.5 xG%, 2.9 xGA/60
Bean-Pachal 58.8 xG%, 1.62 xGA/60

Miromanov’s defensive deficiencies are really the only part that’s looked out of place in that top 4 so far, everyone else has looked pretty great and the underlyings back it up. The crazy part to is this actually could’ve been somewhat predicted looking at all of our additions underlying from the previous year, they were all excellent. Comparing them against players with a min 500 minutes played on their teams:

Bahl: 52.28 xG% (4th out of 7), 2.37 xGA/60 (1st)
Bean: 45.5 xG% (5th out of 7), 2.82 xGA/60 (3rd)

As well as the guys results who finished last season with us:

Miromanov: 57.8 xGF%, 2.23 xGA/60
Pachal: 51.14 xGF%, 2.21 xGA/60

Really paints a picture that we added a lot of guys without much flash but who are all capable of giving you reliable and sound defensive minutes (with the exception of Miro, who is the opposite). They all showed well or atleast relatively well on the team they were on in similar roles that they’re currently playing.

Not gonna lie, I checked out when you started using expected stats for a f***ing 3 game sample size. Not that I take them too seriously regardless because they are so massively overused and quoted like f***ing gospel. Congrats on wasting your time.

 

[joescores]

Honestly the defense is shaping up to not actually be god awful with how good Bahl as well as his pair have looked out of the gates.

Bahl-Andersson: 55.9 xG%, 2.05 xGA/60,
Weegar-Miromanov 37.5 xG%, 2.9 xGA/60
Bean-Pachal 58.8 xG%, 1.62 xGA/60

Miromanov’s defensive deficiencies are really the only part that’s looked out of place in that top 4 so far, everyone else has looked pretty great and the underlyings back it up. The crazy part to is this actually could’ve been somewhat predicted looking at all of our additions underlying from the previous year, they were all excellent. Comparing them against players with a min 500 minutes played on their teams:

Bahl: 52.28 xG% (4th out of 7), 2.37 xGA/60 (1st)
Bean: 45.5 xG% (5th out of 7), 2.82 xGA/60 (3rd)

As well as the guys results who finished last season with us:

Miromanov: 57.8 xGF%, 2.23 xGA/60
Pachal: 51.14 xGF%, 2.21 xGA/60

Really paints a picture that we added a lot of guys without much flash but who are all capable of giving you reliable and sound defensive minutes (with the exception of Miro, who is the opposite). They all showed well or atleast relatively well on the team they were on in similar roles that they’re currently playing.

That Hanifin trade doesn't look rosy...

 

[Figgy44]

That Hanifin trade doesn't look rosy...

It's a little more swing for the fences than we'd like at this point in time, but I think it's OK. Similar in nature to the other trade we did where we swung at RD (Brewski). Brewski isn't on the roster, but probably would be hoping for second pairing duties in his sophomore season. Miromanov played 2nd pairing but is looking more like 3rd pairing. Still, he's looking to be for sure an NHL regular even if his final ceiling is 4/5. He is easily our best RD after Hanifin/Weegar. We still need a stop gap regardless of what we do. He's extended for cheap too.

I also had a theory last TDL that Hanifin might end up in VGK colors even though everyone else was thinking other teams. I speculated VGK purely based on the fact Eichel and Hanifin are ultra tight. If Hanifin basically wanted VGK badly, then Conroy's hands were tied. However, I seem to recall the rumors that other teams weren't putting together a package much better than that, so perhaps Conroy got one of the best packages AND did Hanifin a solid, which is good.

EDIT: That pick is not protected? Well, I'd say that'd be tidy work for Conroy to really focus on rolling the dice on getting assets that are undervalued now vs could substantially increase in value later.

 

[Yepthatsme]

You're underrating Russell IMO, he was better than Wideman. I also think you are overrating the current defense. Bahl is a 3rd pairing, that we hope will grow into a top 4, but if we're really honest, Miro, Pachal, Bean, Barrie are all #6s at best IMO


Not gonna lie, I checked out when you started using expected stats for a f***ing 3 game sample size. Not that I take them too seriously regardless because they are so massively overused and quoted like f***ing gospel. Congrats on wasting your time.

I mean the real stats are hilarious if you like those as well, and the eye test has matched, but the meat and potatoes of the post was about last year’s stats…

I’d actually recommend using advanced stats to start the season over just checking results, really helps show who some of the pretenders are (Utah, us, and somehow still Chicago even with a mediocre start)

That Hanifin trade doesn't look rosy...

Let’s just ignore the unprotected 2026 1st we have of theirs? That thing is lotto max ticket with Theodore and Hill UFAs at the end of this year and how prone to injury their roster is.

 

[Lunatik]

I mean the real stats are hilarious if you like those as well, and the eye test has matched, but the meat and potatoes of the post was about last year’s stats…

Let’s just ignore the unprotected 2026 1st we have of theirs? That thing is lotto max ticket with Theodore and Hill UFAs at the end of this year and how prone to injury their roster is.

Let me repeat...

THREE f***ING GAMES

Stats after 3 games are about as reliable as a truck from 1920 that's never had any form of maintenance.