While I agree with this, I also believe that McKenna might have better stats than Bedard in his first 2 years due to better circumstances then people will come out of the woodwork rewriting history.
The Next Ones (after Bedard)
- Thread starter independent observer
- Start date
After drafting Lafreniere and Kakko, all I can tell you is, in the modern NHL, if you have a top 3 pick and you’re considering a player who doesn’t have at least near elite skating, look elsewhere. No one is going to convince me that Stutzle not going first was down to any reason beyond playing in the DEL. There isn’t a single facet of Lafreniere’s game that equals Stu’s and that isn’t because Stutzle has grown since entering the league; it’s been that way since day 1. If the best thing you can say about a prospect is they do everything good but nothing elite, they’re not an elite prospect. Neither Laf nor Kakko had a single elite aspect to their games and they will go down as two of the worst top picks in NHL history. Humiliating.
Seeing that you're a Rangers fan, I can understand your frustration on how they turned out. But you framing Lafreniere as not having elite skills is pretty much the opposite of every major scouting profile of him. Most scouting services actually praised his speed.
You can even re-read the entire Lafreniere thread on this forum, and other than a few trolls, everyone was in agreement that he was the top choice in 2020.
It's funny the re-writes of history on here about Laf. He was the consensus no. 1. And any team that didn't take him 1st overall would have been ripped to shreds.
I’m positive he was the consensus #1. We’ve rehashed dozens of various scouting reports on our boards though and he was really never considered to have any elite attributes besides IQ, which hasn’t really translated against NHL talent. My point about Stutzle wasn’t that the Rangers went against conventional wisdom, but that - especially during Covid - guys from the DEL just weren’t ever going to be viewed as highly as guys in the CHL. Stutzle is objectively better at every facet of hockey and has been since the first game of their first seasons, but evaluating prospects in the DEL and German’s second league is more difficult because it’s not nearly as scouted to begin with.
“A premier, point-producing machine of a forward. Extremely dangerous in one-on-one situations. Scores in a variety of ways. Brings the noise. Will be one of the rare wingers who will dictate everything. There’s little reason to believe he won’t immediately step into the NHL next fall and make an impact. A very worthy first-overall pick.” – Cam Robinson, DobberProspects
“His blend of elite power and puck protection with high-end puck skills as a handler, shooter and passer should make him an impact player immediately… Lafreniere’s now got a powerful stride that gives him the explosiveness he needs to cut through lanes and back defenders off, something that was once a (minor) concern. There’s also nothing about his game that makes me worry about his projection. He’s not passive, nor does he try to do too much — he takes calculated risks. He doesn’t tunnel vision as a shooter or passer, constantly surveying the ice for his best options. And he has all of the athletic tools he needs. When people lean on him, it’s like he doesn’t even notice they’re there. Even without the hardest shot or the quickest feet in the draft, he’s the clear best player and there shouldn’t be much — if any — hesitation for any team with the first overall pick.” – Scott Wheeler, The Athletic (from: “Wheeler: Midseason ranking for the 2020 NHL Draft’s top 62 prospects” – The Athletic – Feb. 19, 2020)
“A gifted scoring winger with outstanding hockey sense and the ability to elevate his game when the situation necessitates it…Although there are many things about Lafreniere that scream elite, specifically his vision and deadly wrist shot, it’s his insanely-high compete level, tenacity on the puck, and selflessness that set him apart from all his peers. Play him on a line with equally-heralded or accomplished prospects, and he’ll make it a point to tap into their strengths rather than make himself the center of attention. Lafreniere is an excellent skater in all directions, but his powerful stride allows him to separate from opponents in open ice. He can tailor his game to fit any style of play, and his ability to play physical causes significant matchup problems for smaller opponents.” – Steve Kournianos, The Draft Analyst
Fantastic work. Like I said, we’ve dredged up dozens of scouting reports. Do you think anyone wants him to be better than Rangers fans do? The deadly wrist shot hasn’t shown itself and the insanely high compete level has looked like a lot of complacency (though he’s done well bringing some extra gears in the playoffs). His power and puck protection hasn’t translated. He isn’t that big of a guy and it simply hasn’t manifested.
Those are a couple of quotes that are pumping his tires and I never said there were zero. In fact, even though, yes 100% the quote you chose does say there are things about Lafreniere that are elite, what it actually says is “even though he has some elite attributes, it’s actually his tenacity and compete level that sets him apart” - ie. his effort elevates his total package. The fact that they have to say “although he has these attributes… it’s his compete level that sets him apart” demonstrates that his skills alone didn’t really separate him from the pack. And it hasn’t been true in the NHL as 99% of Ranger fans will call out his effort level and conditioning as issues. No one points to elite skating, speed, edges, hands, size, vision, passing… the quotes you cherry picked said ready to step into the NHL, elite power and puck protection (fair enough, but turned out to not translate against pro D) and a “deadly” wrist shot with elite compete.
I wish he had elite compete, but even so that’s not so much a skill. His shot has certainly not shown up as deadly at the NHL level. If Laf’s shot is elite what are Matthews’ and Bedard’s? I’m not being facetious. Lafreniere very clearly doesn’t have an elite shot. He doesn’t have elite skating, vision, hands, passing or IQ. He was powerful against juniors but stopped progressing against men. We don’t need to split hairs - I’m not sure why you’re trying to “prove” to me that some scouting reports spoke highly of him when I said I’m positive he was the consensus #1 pick - my point was he didn’t have a real tangible elite skill that was his calling card and he’s fallen pretty flat at the pro level. The only thing that could really be construed as controversial about what I said was that Stutzle (clearly an elite skater, clearly has far superior hands, demonstrably has a better shot and displays a far higher compete level) was under-scouted which, especially during a global pandemic, accounted for him not being #1. It’s not like he was #15. He went 3… is it that wild to think he may well have gone 1 if he’d played in the OHL?
Your argument is completely based on hindsight and anything that has happened to his development post draft. You keep using Stutzle as a comparison but also post draft, and anything he has done post draft. The fact that Laf's skills have not translated to the NHL as well is irrelevant in terms of pre-draft comparisons and analysis.
It's ok to be wrong about Laf, I was wrong about him too. But based on the draft profiles of both players at THE TIME, 99 out of 100 would taken LAF.
I'm willing to bet you didn't feel this way on the day he was drafted.
My entire point is that its easy to say he will be better than Bedard when Bedard has been underwhelming. If you actually followed and watched the games you would remember the hype around Bedard. At the same point of their careers, Bedard was getting McDavid praise.History won’t require being rewritten for those who knew McKenna was better.
And my entire point is that Bedard has not been underwhelming, he trends to be a superstar, as I expected from him when he was 15, I expect even more from McKenna, hardly an easy statement to make.
Been following prospects professionally for 20+ years, I’ll stick with my assessment!
Bedard is closer to Matthews, McKenna will be the next McDavid/Crosby level player.
