The Morgan Rielly Conundrum

[TheShape]

I believe Rielly will re-sign as I don't see him making ridiculous contract demands. I'll say this though, he is looking more and more expendable, he has been arguably our 4-5th best D man this year and I believe we have better options to run the 1st PP unit. By the time his next contract kicks in his true prime will be behind him.

Factor in a guy like Sandin who won't be on ELC forever, all of a sudden that's a lot of money on the back end.

 

[RogerR]

Leaf fans worry too much about players leaving. When has a player left Leafs really wanted to keep? JVR admitted Leafs didn't even try and told him weeks before they won't give him an extension.
This isn't Seth Jones becoming UFA after next season(Although the media will only mention Rielly leaving). Rielly will want to stay.
We've got Matthews, Marner. Nylander Locked-up.

 

[Leaftors]

Morgs is one of those leafs players that we wouldn't know what we got till its gone.

I do believe he wants to stay, and i do believe we want him to stay.

 

[Critical13]

A lot of people riding the highs of a winning streak in a division where we never ply a Tampa/Colorado/Boston tier team. I will take the heat now, but we will see how having him play 25 minutes against the top teams go. I still think he’s been the worst of our top 4, and is still a liability against top lines.

 

[Ryan52]

Can't believe people want to run him out already. He's a huge part of this team. 7 per season is a no brainer value wise

 

[Notsince67]

A lot of people riding the highs of a winning streak in a division where we never ply a Tampa/Colorado/Boston tier team. I will take the heat now, but we will see how having him play 25 minutes against the top teams go. I still think he’s been the worst of our top 4, and is still a liability against top lines.

So he has gone from being potentially too expensive to being a liability now.
Sounds like you wont only take the heat now but into the future. The differences in Quality of competition are pretty big.

 

[Notsince67]

Can't believe people want to run him out already. He's a huge part of this team. 7 per season is a no brainer value wise

I can. The leaf fan base can be a death cult at times.

 

[4thline]

Don't want to run Rielly out of town, but when his contract is up I think we're facing a choice between him and Nylander. Trading Reilly this summer or Willy next. Right now I'm leaning towards keeping this team materially intact as long as possible.

 

[moon111]

Morgan Reilly isn't the best defenseman on Toronto. He's the best offensive defenseman on Toronto.

It goes back to Kaberle day's that we've been expecting our defense to be able to make stretch passes.
When Pat Burns was the coach, we were cool with Lefebvre doing his thing in his own end and weren't
disappointed with his .16 assists per game. Someone like Marincin has been torn up by fans, but all to often
he's been given the job to win a battle (which he does a lot more then getting credit for), but then has to
get the puck out by himself while still being attacked.

The Leafs are playing better. Watching Wayne Simmonds for the first time, the puck was in the Leaf's end and then
I saw something incredible. He was at the top of the blueline skated all the way down to the hash marks,
the defenseman won the battle, flipped it to Simmonds and off the Leafs went. Just amazing. A forward
supporting the defense!!! Part of the reason Reilly is looking bad is because the other defensemen are looking
good with the support the forwards are giving. Currently Kerfoot has a smidgeon better points per 60 over
Tavares. But Tavares isn't a minus player this season either. And the Leafs are winning more.

The Leafs have changed, not Morgan. The way the team is functioning, you don't need to be the most
amazing playmaker on the blueline to be effective. Muzzin, Holl, Bogosain, Dermott are all in the top
10 on the team for +/-. What we need now from this young defenseman is for him to focus on the game
in his own zone. Stop focusing totally on the puck and just worry about where the bodies are. Rotate
your head! We can see opposition sneaking around him and he doesn't have a clue where they are.
He needs to know he can physically take someone out in his own zone and he doesn't have to worry about also
playing the puck, the forwards will support.

 

[Critical13]

Can't believe people want to run him out already. He's a huge part of this team. 7 per season is a no brainer value wise

You sign Rielly for 7 and it means moving one of Muzzin, Hyman or Nylander.

 

[cannucky]

Can't believe people want to run him out already. He's a huge part of this team. 7 per season is a no brainer value wise

Well you certainly got the "No Brain " part right when it comes to giving him 7 per season , if he didn't have the modified NM kicking in this year I'd say expose him to Seattle in lieu of future considerations from the Kraken . He could move home to Van and commute to Seattle via Harbor Air , everybody wins .

 

[zeke]

So he has gone from being potentially too expensive to being a liability now.
Sounds like you wont only take the heat now but into the future. The differences in Quality of competition are pretty big.
View attachment 395920

Nice chart. Mo has always received super elite qoc usage which has hurt his defensive stats.

But tbh one thing I was expecting this year was that Muzzin-Holl's great play last year would let Keefe lighten the matchup load on Mo and go for a more even qoc split between the top two pairs but so far its still been much heavier lifting for Mo's pair.

 

[zeke]

Solid chance the cap will rise when it's time to re-sign Mo, btw.

 

[Ryan52]

You sign Rielly for 7 and it means moving one of Muzzin, Hyman or Nylander.

who is the most important out of those 4?

 

[leafsfan5]

I just can’t see Mo on any other team, he’s our heart and soul

 

[Confucius]

We can and we will, as long as he doesn't want a raise.

 

[Jmo89]

His struggles this year are a bit concerning, but he's still facing top lines. He hasn't been bad enough to get rid of IMO. He's also a core guy and good leader.

Defensemen are weird and go from good to bad to good sometimes. I remember when Letang was basically traded by HF years ago, and then the next season Pitts fans loved him again.

Our top 4 is set for at least 2 more seasons after this (assuming Rielly is kept,) and Rielly has gone through a carousel of D partners pretty much his whole career. Hopefully the stability season to season will help him return to what we know he can be.

Personally, I'd only let him go next season if he's asking for (way) too much money and the Leafs still have Dermot.

 

[Notsince67]

Nice chart. Mo has always received super elite qoc usage which has hurt his defensive stats.

But tbh one thing I was expecting this year was that Muzzin-Holl's great play last year would let Keefe lighten the matchup load on Mo and go for a more even qoc split between the top two pairs but so far its still been much heavier lifting for Mo's pair.

I'm having difficulty finding scoring chance generation info. By my eye, Rielly provides exceptional assistance for this including zone entries at al. He is definitely part of planned attack execution which is a different dimensional addition to Holls responsibilities. Take Rielly away and you see a reduced attack option. I dont think people have thought this out very well.
As for the QOC, it is early days. The defense totality looks like it is getting better. Distributing some of that workload multiplied by the number of minutes Rielly actually plays would be onerous on players like Holl. He is gaining confidence and it makes no sense throwing him to the wolves all at once. Quite frankly, he is better because he has been allowed to gain confidence on Rielly's back. Keefe has obviously attempted to shift the burden but so far, Holl and Muzzin has had mixed results. Run with your stallions until you need to make adjustments. Last year we saw it didnt work so well when Rielly got hurt.

 

[zeke]

BTW Rielly is not only getting the biggest and toughest minutes, but he's at a 12gl/65pt pace and a 52.7xgf% and a 58.0gf%.

That is.....pretty dang good.

His "struggles" may have been a wee bit overblown.

 

[Notsince67]

BTW Rielly is not only getting the biggest and toughest minutes, but he's at a 12gl/65pt pace and a 52.7xgf% and a 58.0gf%.

That is.....pretty dang good.

His "struggles" may have been a wee bit overblown.

The dangers of recency bias demonstrated yet again.

 

[IPS]

BTW Rielly is not only getting the biggest and toughest minutes, but he's at a 12gl/65pt pace and a 52.7xgf% and a 58.0gf%.

That is.....pretty dang good.

His "struggles" may have been a wee bit overblown.

he was a defensive mess for the first 10 or so games but he's picked it up.

 

[IPS]

Don't want to run Rielly out of town, but when his contract is up I think we're facing a choice between him and Nylander. Trading Reilly this summer or Willy next. Right now I'm leaning towards keeping this team materially intact as long as possible.

We don't need to trade Willy.

Kessel's retention also comes off the books when it's time to re-sign Mo (if we do). So we're already working with 6.2M off the bat. We can trade Kerfoot and re-sign him no problem.

 

[Notsince67]

We don't need to trade Willy.

Kessel's retention also comes off the books when it's time to re-sign Mo (if we do). So we're already working with 6.2M off the bat. We can trade Kerfoot and re-sign him no problem.

Muzzin will also be 32 vs Rielly at 27. Muzzin might be a good option to replace with younger players. I still think Dermott, Sandin and Lil will be future fixtures

 

[cookie]

I'd give Rielly some time to gel with Brodie (if not that, then to to gel with another RHD) and at the bare minimum get easier match-ups before actually trading him. There's fat and redundancy elsewhere in the lineup that can be trimmed before coming for Rielly and the fact that his skating actually looks better this year than last year (when he was playing hurt) is a positive sign. If we do need to trade him, I would think the Penguins' GM Burke would not be shy to strike a deal for him... the only issue is that we've basically stolen a bunch of their prospects already. Unless there's a demand, we're gonna be selling low on Rielly - let's see how our internal options at LHD actually play out before trading the guy.

 

[Menzinger]

The question to ask is if 5-6 mil in free agency can buy a player of similar on ice impact (maybe even a more balanced two way one) and also allows the team to save money on that raise.