Speculation: The market for Mitch Marner's mega millions

[FriendlyGhost92]

so he can get a larger deal and a 8th year so he would have more stability.

Year 8 provide security in case he gets hurt or falls off. Other than that, it probably does less in terms of actual money.

Say he gets $12.75M x 8 but could get $13.5M x 7 on the open market. It's a net difference of $7.5M.

He probably gets more than that on a new contract in 7 years.

 

[macbowes]

Oh... So Bjorkstrand is worth his cap hit but Marner is only getting $9M?

LOLWUT

Bjorkstrand is probably worth $5.4M in TOR. TBL, and other no-tax states can pay guys 25%~ less because of the tax difference. $10M in TOR is $8M in TBL. It's actually a little bit worse than that even, for TOR, but it's close enough. Bjorkstrand at $5.4M in TBL is an overpay, but in TOR its probably close to correct value. So for Marner, $9M in TBL is equivalent to over $12M in TOR. The AAV that Marner is worth is dramatically higher in high-tax regions (e.g. Canada, New York, California) compared to low/no-tax regions (e.g. Florida, Texas, Tennessee, etc.).

I wouldn't get hung up too much on the AAV. The AAV that Marner gets paid is wholely dependant on the team he signs with. No-income tax regions will always pay significantly less, because the take-home for the player is significantly more. There is no amount of tax wizardry that can change this. None.

 

[macbowes]

You can espouse the whole taxes concept but these are extremely wealthy people who don’t pay the basic tax rates because they have accountants and lawyers make sure they don’t. Someone already posted that signing bonuses fall into the 15% tax bracket.
Marner will get 15 x 7 from a club. Not too sure which one though?

There is zero chance he gets $15Mx7. He will absolutely not be the highest paid player. Maybe Kaprizov gets that from MIN, but no chance for Marner.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Bjorkstrand is probably worth $5.4M in TOR. TBL, and other no-tax states can pay guys 25%~ less because of the tax difference. $10M in TOR is $8M in TBL. It's actually a little bit worse than that even, for TOR, but it's close enough. Bjorkstrand at $5.4M in TBL is an overpay, but in TOR its probably close to correct value. So for Marner, $9M in TBL is equivalent to over $12M in TOR. The AAV that Marner is worth is dramatically higher in high-tax regions (e.g. Canada, New York, California) compared to low/no-tax regions (e.g. Florida, Texas, Tennessee, etc.).

I wouldn't get hung up too much on the AAV. The AAV that Marner gets paid is wholely dependant on the team he signs with. No-income tax regions will always pay significantly less, because the take-home for the player is significantly more. There is no amount of tax wizardry that can change this. None.

What the f*** is this gibberish I just read...

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Hawks, Isles or Canes

 

[macbowes]

What the f*** is this gibberish I just read...

What has you confused?

 

[The don godfather]

Bruins .

 

[MikeS24]

He will thrive in the playoffs if he takes a tad less and goes to a team where he is the third best player. Maybe fourth

Edmonton would be great for him

Big two dawgs and Bouchard pulling the rope. Marner along for the ride

We know Oilers love leafs seconds and they thrive in Edmonton

 

[MikeS24]

I feel pretty confident in saying LA will pursue him aggressively.

They need a right shot winger. They have the cap space. They think they can contend and want to make a big move.

There's also the Jim Hiller and DJ Smith connection.

LA is about as far away from Toronto as possible

I think having to go through Edmonton will scare Marner going there. If he doesn't care about winning a cup for a while then yes. Or sj. Just relax and make more bank

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

What has you confused?

The random bullshit numbers.

Coupled with you acting like Florida is the only tax free state and every other organization pays the high taxes Canadian and Californian organizations pay.

 

[Blue and Green]

Chicago is currently third in the poll but I have a hard time seeing Marner and Bedard as a good fit, plus it's questionable that he would be willing to go to a team that far down in the recent standings. If he is willing to go to one of the recent bottom-feeders, I think San Jose makes more sense because Celebrini seems more like the kind of player that Marner can complement well.

 

[Captain Controversy]

He will thrive in the playoffs if he takes a tad less and goes to a team where he is the third best player. Maybe fourth

Edmonton would be great for him

Big two dawgs and Bouchard pulling the rope. Marner along for the ride

We know Oilers love leafs seconds and they thrive in Edmonton

f*** that. Oilers already had a marner in Jordan Eberle. Completely useless.
Let calgary have him.

 

[quietbruinfan]

Isles make sense, Canes too. My Bruins would but they know Marner too well.

 

[Jeune Poulet]

He's an 8.5M player disguised as a star.

But he's probably gonna pull a Skinner and go for 11-12M on a really shitty franchise, hurt their cap flexibility and take his usual vacations during the playoffs.

But if he miraculously accepts getting paid under 9M, he'll have his pick of a quality franchise, be happy, and get a real chance at racking up a lot of individual and collective hardware.

 

[macbowes]

The random bullshit numbers.

Coupled with you acting like Florida is the only tax free state and every other organization pays the high taxes Canadian and Californian organizations pay.

Not sure why you think the numbers are BS, you can take a look at whatever source you wish, be it Puckpedia, or whatever else. The difference in contract value is as dramatic as I've stated. All tax-free states will have the same advantage as Florida, I simply used Florida because that's the state where my hypothetical trade had him going. Any no-tax state (e.g. Florida, Tennessee, Texas) is going to have to pay him significantly less than a high tax region. DAL, TBL, FLA, NSH could pay him less than $10M, and the equivalent contract will be $12M+ in any high-tax region (e.g. Canada, California, New York).

 

[MikeS24]

f*** that. Oilers already had a marner in Jordan Eberle. Completely useless.
Let calgary have him.

Eberle is not even Marners league. What does he have to do with this? lol. Eberle played with a younger and zero seasoned supporting cast

 

[Captain Controversy]

Eberle is not even Marners league. What does he have to do with this? lol. Eberle played with a younger and zero seasoned supporting cast

They are both skilled , soft, defensively unreliable forwards that only produce in the regular season.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

I think Utah hits him with a deal he can't refuse. As much as Marner loved being a Maple Leaf, I think too much media attention and criticism isn't good for him. I think he could end up being a much better player in a low-stress market. Playing for the Leafs had him go too hard on himself.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I don’t think he’ll end up in Columbus especially if he’s just looking for top dollar, but if he’s willing to take a “discount” in the name of 11-13 mill I think we could be a contender for him.

Smaller market, close to home for his family, good family city, young roster with some guys he may be familiar with (Werenski, Monahan, Fantilli)

My guess is he goes to somewhere like Anaheim but I would like if the CBJ got involved here.

 

[Devonator]

I would have to assume he wants to get away from the spot light and far away from Toronto....and no doubt he wants to win....he will sign with a team like Vegas or even the Kings and the upcoming Ducks.....that is where he is going.....

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Not sure why you think the numbers are BS, you can take a look at whatever source you wish, be it Puckpedia, or whatever else. The difference in contract value is as dramatic as I've stated. All tax-free states will have the same advantage as Florida, I simply used Florida because that's the state where my hypothetical trade had him going. Any no-tax state (e.g. Florida, Tennessee, Texas) is going to have to pay him significantly less than a high tax region. DAL, TBL, FLA, NSH could pay him less than $10M, and the equivalent contract will be $12M+ in any high-tax region (e.g. Canada, California, New York).

It's already been stated here that the numbers aren't accurate because you only get paid 41 games in your market's tax percentage and the other 41 are wherever your away games are located.

Secondly, you led off with an absurd 8 x $9M proposal for Marner under your claims that other markets wouldn't/couldn't compete with it.

For reference, just going off Puckpedia's calculator:

Seattle and Nashville have the same tax rate.

Boston, Carolina, Chicago, Colorado, and Utah would all only have to pay him $9.75M/year to match or beat that.

Columbus, Pittsburgh, and St. Louis would have to pay less than $10M/year to match that. Detroit and Philly would barely have to pay more than $10M.

There's twelve teams right there. Now assume at least two offer Marner $12.5M. Shit. Assume those two are Detroit and Philly. I gave you the two most distant ones. Tampa has to offer $11.2M to beat those two after taxes, not even considering the calculators are inaccurate and it only accounts for half the games.

So again, you really think 8 x $9M is getting the job done?

 

[macbowes]

It's already been stated here that the numbers aren't accurate because you only get paid 41 games in your market's tax percentage and the other 41 are wherever your away games are located.

Secondly, you led off with an absurd 8 x $9M proposal for Marner under your claims that other markets wouldn't/couldn't compete with it.

For reference, just going off Puckpedia's calculator:

Seattle and Nashville have the same tax rate.

Boston, Carolina, Chicago, Colorado, and Utah would all only have to pay him $9.75M/year to match or beat that.

Columbus, Pittsburgh, and St. Louis would have to pay less than $10M/year to match that. Detroit and Philly would barely have to pay more than $10M.

There's twelve teams right there. Now assume at least two offer Marner $12.5M. Shit. Assume those two are Detroit and Philly. I gave you the two most distant ones. Tampa has to offer $11.2M to beat those two after taxes, not even considering the calculators are inaccurate and it only accounts for half the games.

So again, you really think 8 x $9M is getting the job done?

I think he'll sign for somewhere between $9M-$11M if he signs an 8 year deal in a no/low-tax region. If he signs in high tax region, I could see anywhere from $11M-$12.75M on an 8 year deal, trending higher for the worse teams. Honestly, I think there's really wide range of AAVs he would demand, depending on the team, and tax situation.

His current cap hit % is 13.37%, so that's probably the high water mark for what he could hope for. If he's getting those offers from low tax teams, certainly he won't sign an $9Mx8y deal, but I doubt he does. If he get's an offer of $11Mx8years from CBJ, and $9Mx8 from TBL, I would be shocked if he chose CBJ. Now, if it's $12.5M from CBJ, maybe TBL have to offer something closer to $11M to get it done. Regardless, I think his ability to essentially choose his team, will mean going to a good team, in a low tax region. For this reason, I think his deal is in the $9M-$11M range, depending on what kind of deals he gets.

Really, I don't care too much about the nitty gritty of his deal. Whether it's $9M per or $11M per, it's relatively small potatoes. Admittedly, $9M is probably unrealistically low, but I don't think by that much. Half of the leagues GMs sign bad $3M deals each season, so I'm no too fussed over what the high-end players make. If your point of contention with my original post was the AAV of the contract, then fair enough, it wasn't some major sticking point for me. The main thing is recognizing he's going to have a lower AAV in low/no-tax states, and lower still on a good team, with good cap structure. Maybe we could use Guentzel as his floor, and Rantanen as his ceiling. Somewhere in that range.

 

[KrisLeturnover]

He went to Chicago in my FHM game, so there.

 

[AVictoryDive]

I think he'll sign for somewhere between $9M-$11M if he signs an 8 year deal in a no/low-tax region. If he signs in high tax region, I could see anywhere from $11M-$12.75M on an 8 year deal, trending higher for the worse teams. Honestly, I think there's really wide range of AAVs he would demand, depending on the team, and tax situation.

His current cap hit % is 13.37%, so that's probably the high water mark for what he could hope for. If he's getting those offers from low tax teams, certainly he won't sign an $9Mx8y deal, but I doubt he does. If he get's an offer of $11Mx8years from CBJ, and $9Mx8 from TBL, I would be shocked if he chose CBJ. Now, if it's $12.5M from CBJ, maybe TBL have to offer something closer to $11M to get it done. Regardless, I think his ability to essentially choose his team, will mean going to a good team, in a low tax region. For this reason, I think his deal is in the $9M-$11M range, depending on what kind of deals he gets.

Really, I don't care too much about the nitty gritty of his deal. Whether it's $9M per or $11M per, it's relatively small potatoes. Admittedly, $9M is probably unrealistically low, but I don't think by that much. Half of the leagues GMs sign bad $3M deals each season, so I'm no too fussed over what the high-end players make. If your point of contention with my original post was the AAV of the contract, then fair enough, it wasn't some major sticking point for me. The main thing is recognizing he's going to have a lower AAV in low/no-tax states, and lower still on a good team, with good cap structure. Maybe we could use Guentzel as his floor, and Rantanen as his ceiling. Somewhere in that range.

He can’t get 8 years once he hits UFA. Mac term is 7. Only team he can get 8 from is Toronto, but once free agency hits then that’s out the door

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

I think he'll sign for somewhere between $9M-$11M if he signs an 8 year deal in a no/low-tax region. If he signs in high tax region, I could see anywhere from $11M-$12.75M on an 8 year deal, trending higher for the worse teams. Honestly, I think there's really wide range of AAVs he would demand, depending on the team, and tax situation.

His current cap hit % is 13.37%, so that's probably the high water mark for what he could hope for. If he's getting those offers from low tax teams, certainly he won't sign an $9Mx8y deal, but I doubt he does. If he get's an offer of $11Mx8years from CBJ, and $9Mx8 from TBL, I would be shocked if he chose CBJ. Now, if it's $12.5M from CBJ, maybe TBL have to offer something closer to $11M to get it done. Regardless, I think his ability to essentially choose his team, will mean going to a good team, in a low tax region. For this reason, I think his deal is in the $9M-$11M range, depending on what kind of deals he gets.

Really, I don't care too much about the nitty gritty of his deal. Whether it's $9M per or $11M per, it's relatively small potatoes. Admittedly, $9M is probably unrealistically low, but I don't think by that much. Half of the leagues GMs sign bad $3M deals each season, so I'm no too fussed over what the high-end players make. If your point of contention with my original post was the AAV of the contract, then fair enough, it wasn't some major sticking point for me. The main thing is recognizing he's going to have a lower AAV in low/no-tax states, and lower still on a good team, with good cap structure. Maybe we could use Guentzel as his floor, and Rantanen as his ceiling. Somewhere in that range.

... You think his high water mark is the same amount he got as an RFA, with a lesser career year?

Jesus...