Speculation: The market for Mitch Marner's mega millions

[FriendlyGhost92]

Why would Marner agree to a sign and trade that has a contract of 9 mil x 8 years? He’s likely getting 15x7 July 1.

Also, why would TOR agree to sign and trade him to a division rival in exchange for a cap dump and the 2nd to pay for the cap dump lol.

 

[Antropovsky]

There will be about 20 teams that call him during courting with serious intent.

He’ll get to pick where he goes and for what dollar value.

I’m guessing Carolina to be honest.

If hes picking dollar value then thank lord there is a maximum because he cares more about money than winning.

Second round, he had just 2 shots from game 2-6. He was asked about his lack of shots and said "I get pucks to sticks down low, thats my game".

He is such a perimeter player that even Mcdavid called him one when asked about playing on a line with him at 4nations "Marner, the playmaker, kinda plays high in the zone". Yes.... he does, he literally lingers primarily around top of circle and blueline... he is frightened of corners and the front of the net. That $%*& doesnt create goals in the playoffs.

He also had just 3 primary assists in his final 30+ season games.

He is a very overrated playmaker and plain not that good.

Its gonna be downright ugly when he isnt riding Matthews coat tails, or not on a PP with natural goal scorers Tavares, Matthews and Nylander.

Dont say I didnt warn you. I cannot wait until this soft prima donna is no longer a Leaf.

 

[Fatass]

If hes picking dollar value then thank lord there is a maximum because he cares more about money than winning.

He had 2 shots from game 2-6, was asked about his lack of shots and said "I get pucks to sticks down low, thats my game"

He also had just 3 primary assists in his final 30 ish games.

He is a very overrated playmaker and plain not that good.

Its gonna be downright ugly when he isnt riding Matthews coat tails, or not on a PP eith natural goal scorers Tavares, Matthews and Nylander.

Dont say I didnt warn you. I cannot wait until this soft prima donna is no longer a Leaf.

Actually Marner makes Marthews better. Nylander is awful. He’s not even in the conversation imo.

 

[Antropovsky]

Actually Marner makes Marthews better. Nylander is awful. He’s not even in the conversation imo.

What stats you referencing?

because ive ran the stats and actually... Matthews played about 50% of 2023 and 2024 without Marner and he was MORE productive without Marner.

Meanwhile Marners point totals per 60 jumped about 1.00 with Matthews vs without, from around 2.6 to a 3.5.

Matthews make Marner way more productive but actually is less productive with Marner than without him.

 

[Fatass]

What stats you referencing?

because ive ran the stats and actually... Matthews played about 50% of 2023 and 2024 without Marner and he was MORE productive without Marner.

Meanwhile Marners point totals per 60 jumped about 1.00 with Matthews vs without, from around 2.6 to a 3.5.

Matthews make Marner way more productive but actually is less productive with Marner than without him.

Hey. Knock your socks off with fancy stats. Imo Marner is the Leafs best player and their club takes a big step backwards without him. Matthews will struggle without Marner.

 

[Sports2]

You have matthews and nylander who scored 45 goals this season but you’re blaming your playmaker for not getting more than 2 shots on goal? Hes right- its not his job.

 

[Fatass]

You have matthews and nylander who scored 45 goals this season but you’re blaming your playmaker for not getting more than 2 shots on goal? Hes right- its not his job.

It’s pretty much impossible to set up guys to score who refuse to get to high danger scoring spots because they’re afraid of the contact in those places.

 

[quackquackquack]

If hes picking dollar value then thank lord there is a maximum because he cares more about money than winning.

Second round, he had just 2 shots from game 2-6. He was asked about his lack of shots and said "I get pucks to sticks down low, thats my game".

He is such a perimeter player that even Mcdavid called him one when asked about playing on a line with him at 4nations "Marner, the playmaker, kinda plays high in the zone". Yes.... he does, he literally lingers primarily around top of circle and blueline... he is frightened of corners and the front of the net. That $%*& doesnt create goals in the playoffs.

He also had just 3 primary assists in his final 30+ season games.

He is a very overrated playmaker and plain not that good.

Its gonna be downright ugly when he isnt riding Matthews coat tails, or not on a PP with natural goal scorers Tavares, Matthews and Nylander.

Dont say I didnt warn you. I cannot wait until this soft prima donna is no longer a Leaf.

if any of this is true, its alarming. Its tough to balance the reality of what marner is vs what toronto fans think he is.

 

[macbowes]

Why would Marner agree to a sign and trade that has a contract of 9 mil x 8 years? He’s likely getting 15x7 July 1.

Keep in mind, $9M in TBL is equivalent to $12.15M in TOR. His AAV in a no-tax state is going to be 20%~ less than whatever it would be in a high-tax region. $15Mx7 in SJS is only a couple million more take home dollars than $9Mx8 in TBL, and I seriously doubt he would get a $15Mx7 deal (a $13.9Mx7 year deal would be the same take home, but in 1 fewer years).

A $10Mx8 deal from TBL would be basically unbeatable by any high-tax region.

 

[steelcurtain6]

I know... I live in Boston. My point was not "Pasta is soft" but rather, how are they any different than each other? Both have similar hits/60, blocks/60, Marner a more positive (less negative, I suppose) Giveway/Takeaway ratio. Neither of them shy away from contact or the corners.

For skilled guys, who aren't afraid to get dirty, they aren't that dissimilar... the idea that Marner wouldn't fit into Boston's "school of hard knocks" hockey culture is sorta silly. I think he would thrive here.

until April

 

[macbowes]

Also, why would TOR agree to sign and trade him to a division rival in exchange for a cap dump and the 2nd to pay for the cap dump lol.

Bjorkstrand is not a cap dump, he's worth his cap hit. TOR is not in a position to say no to a division rival, they have to take the best trade, regardless of where to, because otherwise Marner can easily just wait until July 1st. He's going to choose his trade destination, otherwise he's waiting until July 1st. Leafs get a top-9 W, and a pick for a player that can easily just walk.

 

[Comely]

Keep in mind, $9M in TBL is equivalent to $12.15M in TOR. His AAV in a no-tax state is going to be 20%~ less than whatever it would be in a high-tax region. $15Mx7 in SJS is only a couple million more take home dollars than $9Mx8 in TBL, and I seriously doubt he would get a $15Mx7 deal (a $13.9Mx7 year deal would be the same take home, but in 1 fewer years).

An $10Mx8 deal from TBL would be basically unbeatable by any high-tax region.

My understanding is the tax situation is more complicated in that and they pay the tax based on where they make the income as far as state tax is concerned. So 41 games of no state tax plus the hodge podge of the rest of the league.

 

[Fatass]

Keep in mind, $9M in TBL is equivalent to $12.15M in TOR. His AAV in a no-tax state is going to be 20%~ less than whatever it would be in a high-tax region. $15Mx7 in SJS is only a couple million more take home dollars than $9Mx8 in TBL, and I seriously doubt he would get a $15Mx7 deal (a $13.9Mx7 year deal would be the same take home, but in 1 fewer years).

An $10Mx8 deal from TBL would be basically unbeatable by any high-tax region.

You can espouse the whole taxes concept but these are extremely wealthy people who don’t pay the basic tax rates because they have accountants and lawyers make sure they don’t. Someone already posted that signing bonuses fall into the 15% tax bracket.
Marner will get 15 x 7 from a club. Not too sure which one though?

 

[I Hate Philadelphia]

I think Boston, because I know how the universe works at this point.

Bruins match up with Toronto in the first round and Marner scores the game 7 overtime winner in Toronto. Tell me I'm wrong.

 

[KaprizovSaveUs]

I’m suprised the amount of people who think he’ll sign with a non playoff team. Chicago, SJS, Anaheim, and even Utah are certainly not slam dunk playoff teams next year even if they add Marner. Why would he risk missing the playoffs for a few years when plenty of playoff teams will be lining up to add him?

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Bjorkstrand is not a cap dump, he's worth his cap hit. TOR is not in a position to say no to a division rival, they have to take the best trade, regardless of where to, because otherwise Marner can easily just wait until July 1st. He's going to choose his trade destination, otherwise he's waiting until July 1st. Leafs get a top-9 W, and a pick for a player that can easily just walk.

Oh... So Bjorkstrand is worth his cap hit but Marner is only getting $9M?

LOLWUT

 

[Hookslide]

Utah and Anaheim stick out as really good fits. Chicago probably wants him but I don't think Marner will want to go to that tire fire of a franchise.

You make a really good point, Anaheim, would be a little tight this year so they would need to move a contract, but after next year Trouba, comes off the books as does Fowler's buyout. I think the owner of Utah would be all over the chance to get Marner, they would need to move a contract also maybe a Crouse.

 

[ottawagm]

I said Columbus. I doubt he'll want to play for another Canadian team.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

I’m suprised the amount of people who think he’ll sign with a non playoff team. Chicago, SJS, Anaheim, and even Utah are certainly not slam dunk playoff teams next year even if they add Marner. Why would he risk missing the playoffs for a few years when plenty of playoff teams will be lining up to add him?

There's not a lot of surefire playoff teams that could afford him without making significant changes to their roster.

Do you wanna play Minnesota and be competitive now, but not really a Cup contender, or do you wanna go to SJS, likely for more money, and probably be a Cup contender in 2-3 years?

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Keep in mind, $9M in TBL is equivalent to $12.15M in TOR. His AAV in a no-tax state is going to be 20%~ less than whatever it would be in a high-tax region. $15Mx7 in SJS is only a couple million more take home dollars than $9Mx8 in TBL, and I seriously doubt he would get a $15Mx7 deal (a $13.9Mx7 year deal would be the same take home, but in 1 fewer years).

An $10Mx8 deal from TBL would be basically unbeatable by any high-tax region.

Hate to break this to you, but $13M beats $10M in Florida in about two thirds of the NHL markets.

 

[Static]

You make a really good point, Anaheim, would be a little tight this year so they would need to move a contract, but after next year Trouba, comes off the books as does Fowler's buyout. I think the owner of Utah would be all over the chance to get Marner, they would need to move a contract also maybe a Crouse.

Anaheim would not be tight whatsoever. They have like $40 million in cap space even with trouba. They need trouba just to meet the floor.

 

[KaprizovSaveUs]

There's not a lot of surefire playoff teams that could afford him without making significant changes to their roster.

Do you wanna play Minnesota and be competitive now, but not really a Cup contender, or do you wanna go to SJS, likely for more money, and probably be a Cup contender in 2-3 years?

I don’t think Minnesota would realistically invest as much money into wingers as would be required to retain Kaprizov and Marner, so I won’t entertain the “not really a contender thing”, but will say if you just dropped Mitch Marner into the same Wild team they had this year, that is definetly a “contender”.

The opinion I have more of a problem with is the idea that any of these teams, let’s use SJS because you said them in the example, are 2-3 years away from being a cup contender? Based on what? You’re talking about the worst team in the league this year (for the second year in a row). They are tons and tons of good players and quality experience away from being a true contender. No rebuild is ever a certainty. They could conceivably still be in the outside looking in in a playoff spot 5 years into 7 years of his contract. Why would he risk that?

 

[The don godfather]

I say Bruins nab him Donny desperately needs scoring and he knows him well from 4 nations. I bet they have a secret deal already.

 

[Fatass]

I don’t think Minnesota would realistically invest as much money into wingers as would be required to retain Kaprizov and Marner, so I won’t entertain the “not really a contender thing”, but will say if you just dropped Mitch Marner into the same Wild team they had this year, that is definetly a “contender”.

The opinion I have more of a problem with is the idea that any of these teams, let’s use SJS because you said them in the example, are 2-3 years away from being a cup contender? Based on what? You’re talking about the worst team in the league this year (for the second year in a row). They are tons and tons of good players and quality experience away from being a true contender. No rebuild is ever a certainty. They could conceivably still be in the outside looking in in a playoff spot 5 years into 7 years of his contract. Why would he risk that?

15 mil x 7, so 105 million reasons.

 

[Hookslide]

Anaheim would not be tight whatsoever. They have like $40 million in cap space even with trouba. They need trouba just to meet the floor.

I missed read that then, sorry