Blue Jays Discussion: The long, slow march of a winter off-season

[ryno23]

wonder if AA would do business with Shatkins. I think Inciarte is on the block and would make a good addition to the roster. Gold Glove CF can leadoff get on base and can steal you some bases. Would be an ideal candidate but would AA want to help his old team. The Braves have too many OF's so why not try to pry him away from them.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

wonder if AA would do business with Shatkins. I think Inciarte is on the block and would make a good addition to the roster. Gold Glove CF can leadoff get on base and can steal you some bases. Would be an ideal candidate but would AA want to help his old team. The Braves have too many OF's so why not try to pry him away from them.

Prior to them signing W. Smith, I would’ve said Giles for a package including one of Pache or Waters was the right move to make. Now that’s likely not a viable avenue.

As for Inciarte in general, I’m not sure he fits what they’re building toward at this point of the aging curve.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Blue Jays facing tough decisions ahead of Rule 5 protection deadline - Sportsnet.ca

Candidates to be added

IF Santiago Espinal | 25 | 122 games | 7 HR | 27 2B | 12/13 SB | .287/.347/.393 | reached AAA
OF Josh Palacios | 24 | 82 games | 7 HR | 18 2B | 15/20 SB | .266/.371/.416 | reached AA
OF Forrest Wall | 24 on Wednesday | 123 games | 11 HR | 30 2B | 14/22 SB | .268/.351/.422 | reached AAA

All three of these players have gotten serious consideration for 40-man spots in recent months, but it’s not clear if any are locks ahead of Wednesday’s deadline. Of all the decisions facing the Blue Jays front office, these three cases are most likely to be real challenges.

Wall, a former first-round pick who came to Toronto in the Seung-hwan Oh trade, had a solid but unspectacular season in which he reached triple-A. But his double-A teammate, Palacios, is also in the mix for a roster spot after posting a .371 on-base percentage in 82 games with the New Hampshire Fisher Cats.

If the Blue Jays add one position player, it seems likely to be Espinal, who they obtained for 2018 World Series MVP Steve Pearce. Listed at 5-foot-10 and 175 Lbs., Espinal doesn’t hit for much power, but he projects as a capable backup whose bat-to-ball skills give him a lifetime .285 average in the minors.

Baseball America recently listed Palacios and Espinal as players who could draw interest if left unprotected.

Likely to be added

RHP Thomas Hatch | 25 | 4.12 ERA | 135.1 innings | 39 walks | 127 strikeouts | reached AA

The David Phelps trade looks like a good one for the Blue Jays thanks to Hatch, who posted a 2.80 ERA in six starts with the Fisher Cats late last summer. His final outing of the year was his best: a seven-inning effort in which he struck out 11 and walked none.

Expect the Blue Jays to keep stretching Hatch out in 2020, but some believe he could also be a shutdown late-inning reliever. Either way, he should be on the roster by Wednesday evening.

 

[Discoverer]

Prior to them signing W. Smith, I would’ve said Giles for a package including one of Pache or Waters was the right move to make. Now that’s likely not a viable avenue.

As for Inciarte in general, I’m not sure he fits what they’re building toward at this point of the aging curve.

If Atlanta wants to move him primarily to open up a bit of extra payroll space and make room for Pache/Waters, and the return would be fairly minimal, I'm ok with it. A slightly below average hitter, excellent baserunner, and plus CF defender at $17 million total for his age 29-30 seasons with an option is pretty ok for me, even just as a bridge if they really don't think Alford is going to pan out.

(Oddly enough, that description sounds a lot like Pillar. It's amazing how much more enticing an OBP-driven offensive profile is to me compared to the endless frustration of .285 OBP with a bit of pop.)

 

[ryno23]

Prior to them signing W. Smith, I would’ve said Giles for a package including one of Pache or Waters was the right move to make. Now that’s likely not a viable avenue.

As for Inciarte in general, I’m not sure he fits what they’re building toward at this point of the aging curve.

He is 29 but still has a bunch of good years left. They need to bring in some vet help who can play and become leaders. If smoak leaves who is the vet on the team? Grichuk? The window to win is open and a guy like Inciarte can spark and offence that is badly in need of a leadoff guy to allow Bichette, Vlad, Biggio slot into more appropriate slots. Gold Glove defence will help the SP's especially if they are a young bunch.

This is a perfect guy to help shape the culture and accountability of the young kids and to boot he is latin so gives Vlad someone to bounce ideas off and be a mentor.

Can't put all a bunch of early 20 year olds and not have any veteran leadership to guide them.

 

[phillipmike]

Baseball-America's newly released Blue Jays Top 10

1. Nate Pearson (70 FV, Risk: Medium)
2. Jordan Groshans (65 FV, Risk: Very High)
3. Simeon Woods Richardson (60 FV, Risk: High)
4. Alejandro Kirk (55 FV, Risk: High)
5. Alek Manoah (55 FV, Risk: High)
6. Orelvis Martinez (60 FV, Risk: Very High)
7. Gabriel Moreno (55 FV, Risk: High)
8. Miguel Hiraldo (55 FV, Risk: Very High)
9. Anthony Kay (45 FV, Risk: Medium)
10. Adam Kloffenstein (55 FV, Risk: Very High)

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

If Atlanta wants to move him primarily to open up a bit of extra payroll space and make room for Pache/Waters, and the return would be fairly minimal, I'm ok with it. A slightly below average hitter, excellent baserunner, and plus CF defender at $17 million total for his age 29-30 seasons with an option is pretty ok for me, even just as a bridge if they really don't think Alford is going to pan out.

(Oddly enough, that description sounds a lot like Pillar. It's amazing how much more enticing an OBP-driven offensive profile is to me compared to the endless frustration of .285 OBP with a bit of pop.)

He is essentially the more fundamentally sound Pillar, hence my thought that they wouldn't be interested. I could absolutely be wrong. That said, its not how I would deploy my funds, as reasonable as the contract seems. CF defense simply isn't as valued as it was prior to the strikeout era taking off, and IMO ~7-8MM is best utilized elsewhere.

He is 29 but still has a bunch of good years left. They need to bring in some vet help who can play and become leaders. If smoak leaves who is the vet on the team? Grichuk? The window to win is open and a guy like Inciarte can spark and offence that is badly in need of a leadoff guy to allow Bichette, Vlad, Biggio slot into more appropriate slots. Gold Glove defence will help the SP's especially if they are a young bunch.

This is a perfect guy to help shape the culture and accountability of the young kids and to boot he is latin so gives Vlad someone to bounce ideas off and be a mentor.

Can't put all a bunch of early 20 year olds and not have any veteran leadership to guide them.

You have no idea what kind of person Ender Inciarte is. He could be Granderson-esque or he could be Omar Vizquel-esque. We have no idea.

Also, he would not lead off. At least not if the lineup was being optimized, which it would be.

 

[ryno23]

He is essentially the more fundamentally sound Pillar, hence my thought that they wouldn't be interested. I could absolutely be wrong. That said, its not how I would deploy my funds, as reasonable as the contract seems. CF defense simply isn't as valued as it was prior to the strikeout era taking off, and IMO ~7-8MM is best utilized elsewhere.



You have no idea what kind of person Ender Inciarte is. He could be Granderson-esque or he could be Omar Vizquel-esque. We have no idea.

Also, he would not lead off. At least not if the lineup was being optimized, which it would be.

where would you have him hitting? There are tons of articles about him being a great teammate and was a mentor to some of the young guys on the Braves the past couple of years.

 

[Discoverer]

where would you have him hitting? There are tons of articles about him being a great teammate and was a mentor to some of the young guys on the Braves the past couple of years.

He would hit somewhere in the bottom third. Vlad, Bo, Bichette, Grichuk, Gurriel, and Teoscar are all better hitters. Most of the rest of the lineup (Jansen, Rowdy) has more upside but is less proven. I would be happy with a guy like that near the bottom of the lineup, but that's where he belongs even assuming there were no other additions.

Unlike Pillar, he at least profiles as the kind of hitter you could plug into the leadoff spot now and then as needed, but if you have him there on a regular basis, someone is doing something wrong.

 

[Discoverer]

Baseball-America's newly released Blue Jays Top 10

1. Nate Pearson (70 FV, Risk: Medium)
2. Jordan Groshans (65 FV, Risk: Very High)
3. Simeon Woods Richardson (60 FV, Risk: High)
4. Alejandro Kirk (55 FV, Risk: High)
5. Alek Manoah (55 FV, Risk: High)
6. Orelvis Martinez (60 FV, Risk: Very High)
7. Gabriel Moreno (55 FV, Risk: High)
8. Miguel Hiraldo (55 FV, Risk: Very High)
9. Anthony Kay (45 FV, Risk: Medium)
10. Adam Kloffenstein (55 FV, Risk: Very High)

I don't have a BA subscription, so maybe you or someone else can clear this up for me: are they rating all these guys as 55s in the same way MLB.com does (where everyone in every system is a 50 and if you show any promise you get a 55) or does this list actually compare favourably to other teams?

 

[hoc123]

I don't have a BA subscription, so maybe you or someone else can clear this up for me: are they rating all these guys as 55s in the same way MLB.com does (where everyone in every system is a 50 and if you show any promise you get a 55) or does this list actually compare favourably to other teams?

I would say personally, as someone with a BA account
A) I would say it's different, mostly because BA seems to have their FV as a prospect's ceiling, with their risk being how likely a player is to reach it. MLB.com just uses their FV to show how good a prospect is overall. I think the Jays system just has a lot of 55 FV because the system right now is filled with low level, but pretty talented players at the moment.
B) I won't be sure until they release their organization rankings later, but I would say it's pretty good, at least in the top half of the league, which is impressive considering the Blue Jays graduated their three top prospects last year.

 

[Anthrax442]

 

[hoc123]

Hatch makes sense, with the way he ended the year I doubt the Jays would just let him get picked. Espinal is interesting, but also makes sense considering he’s pretty close to the majors and would have likely been picked. The two Jays who might get picked this year are Forrest Wall, and Josh Palacios.

 

[Eyedea]

I don't have a BA subscription, so maybe you or someone else can clear this up for me: are they rating all these guys as 55s in the same way MLB.com does (where everyone in every system is a 50 and if you show any promise you get a 55) or does this list actually compare favourably to other teams?

You could say they fall around the middle of the spectrum, with MLB.com and FG being on opposite ends.

 

[canucksfan]

Not really surprising but still nice to read about

 

[aingefan]

Hatch makes sense, with the way he ended the year I doubt the Jays would just let him get picked. Espinal is interesting, but also makes sense considering he’s pretty close to the majors and would have likely been picked. The two Jays who might get picked this year are Forrest Wall, and Josh Palacios.

Mayza is a calculated drop given his injury.
I don’t think there’s much risk of losing either of those two, but even if so neither seems better than the existing glut of guys.
There are other interesting upper level arms still not on the 40 man that seem like higher risks to be picked (Bergen again for one).

 

[phillipmike]

some high praise for Pearson and Kirk.

 

[canucksfan]

The placement of Kirk surprises me. Most of what I have read seems to indicate Moreno the better catching prospect.

 

[Hoverhand]

Should Groshans become a trade trip to add an outfielder or a pitcher because the infield depth is so deep?

 

[Morgs]

Should Groshans become a trade trip to add an outfielder or a pitcher because the infield depth is so deep?

Nope. One of Biggio/Guerrero can/will probably move have to move off their position at some point.

 

[Hoverhand]

Nope. One of Biggio/Guerrero can/will probably move have to move off their position at some point.

Even in that case, you could just move Gurriel back into the infield. Seems like a no-brainer especially since the outfield is severely lacking.

 

[Morgs]

Even in that case, you could just move Gurriel back into the infield. Seems like a no-brainer especially since the outfield is severely lacking.

Gurriel was really bad in the IF defensively. I'd rather trade one of the catchers (Moreno, Kirk, Adams, McGuire) for OF help than Groshans. Imo if he can find a way to stay healthy, we'd regret trading him.

 

[The Nemesis]

Even in that case, you could just move Gurriel back into the infield. Seems like a no-brainer especially since the outfield is severely lacking.

Gurriel was a bit of a sideshow as an infielder. He's acquitted himself much better in the outfield. The nice thing about the giant glut of infielder prospects is that some of them might be moveable to the outfield if there's no place for them. And if there is a place for them, you can always work around the holes.

 

[The Nemesis]

I'm a little surprised that they couldn't find a way to sneak Jackson McClelland in. He's not a finished product and needs to prove it in AAA, but he's a big power arm with enticing stuff that would seem to be exactly the kind of guy other teams would go after in the Rule 5. I would've gladly jettisoned Breyvic Valera for him. his potential as a flamethrower middle reliever by season's end seems more valuable than a replaceable quad-A utility IF. Especially when you just added a guy like Espinal who can take his utility gig from him. Also factor in that we're nearing the end of the line for Giles and it would be nice to have an heir apparent to be the big, strong guy out of the pen.

I like Palacios as a dark horse prospect still, but even the most rebuild-conscious MLB teams probably aren't going to want to hold a full-year MLB roster spot for a guy who profiles as maybe a good 4th OF who's only been as far as AA. I have the same sort of reason to believe that Forrest Wall was a sensible gamble as a non-add just because he lacks the ultimate upside.

 

[as Pure as Evil]

so since we kept Elvis Luciano for the full year, we are now able to place him in AA/AAA instead of hiding him on the 25 man?