The Leafs are flawed

[notbias]

Throwing money at the WRONG players didn’t help. Anyone who won’t admit the cap constraints created by paying 4 fowards half the cap is living in denial imo………

We have cap savings with guys like Knies, Robertson, Liljegren, Timmins, Woll, Holmberg...

We have a lot of self-inflicted wounds this year and could have a lot of cap to work with.

This lineup looks better and more balanced to me and we have 9 million in cap...

Knies - Matthews - Marner
Holmberg - Tavares - Nylander
Robertson - Domi - Jarnkrok
Gregor - Kampf - Lafferty

Rielly - Brodie
McCabe - Liljegren
Gio - Timmins

Woll
Samsanov

9 million to work with and a better lineup... anyone who thinks these aren't self-inflicted wounds is in denial in my opinion.

 

[4thline]

Throwing money at the WRONG players didn’t help. Anyone who won’t admit the cap constraints created by paying 4 fowards half the cap is living in denial imo………

Have you gone team by team to look at what their 5-9 forwards and 1-4 defense are being paid?

Edit:
I had some time this morning with the kid still adjusting to DST and did the forwards. Our 5-9 spend of 14.35 has us 19th in the league, a touch above the league average of 14.25. Terrible teams like Boston and Tampa are below 11m. Colorado, Vegas and NYR between 13.05 and 14.05.

Interestingly enough, our 5th forward is the tied for the 3rd highest across all teams.

Edit 2.0 - focusing on just the listed teams Defense 1-4
Boston - 23.8
Tampa - 22.7
Colorado - 22.6
Vegas - 22.1
NYR - 24.4

Toronto -20.65* (accounting for McCabe being a 4m player retained.

 

[BallardEra]

Thankfully Woll has been the opposite of Sammy. Could you imagine if the Leafs were going through a Skinner/Campbell situation as well?

 

[BraveCanadian]

No kidding

 

[hullsy47]

Thankfully Woll has been the opposite of Sammy. Could you imagine if the Leafs were going through a Skinner/Campbell situation as well?

Sammy looks kinda soupy .lol
Not sure if his mental state needs a blow
Medically he needs a 2 week stint in the ahl

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

This team is flawed all right.

The result of another trust fund baby hiring. Treliving appears to be equally smart as Dubas. The type who apologizes to his dinner before eating it.

Then trades a 2nd to the empty plate for dessert.

The incompetence of this management group is mind numbing. They tried to make the team better. Instead they accidentally made it worse.

That all starts at the top.

With the same shitheads following the same shit plan. With Dubas they had an idiot surrounded by idiots. Nothing has changed in that regards.

Whatever bad advice Treliving got, and chose to follow, is on him.

If someone tells me to do something stupid at work I don't just do it. Even if it's my boss. If fans on this forum could see the moves he made were bad at the time why couldn't Treliving?

He's the type that will pee on the electric fence despite all the warning signs.

 

[BallardEra]

Gotta work on that PK:

 

[rumman]

Have you gone team by team to look at what their 5-9 forwards and 1-4 defense are being paid?

Edit:
I had some time this morning with the kid still adjusting to DST and did the forwards. Our 5-9 spend of 14.35 has us 19th in the league, a touch above the league average of 14.25. Terrible teams like Boston and Tampa are below 11m. Colorado, Vegas and NYR between 13.05 and 14.05.

Interestingly enough, our 5th forward is the tied for the 3rd highest across all teams.

Edit 2.0 - focusing on just the listed teams Defense 1-4
Boston - 23.8
Tampa - 22.7
Colorado - 22.6
Vegas - 22.1
NYR - 24.4

Toronto -20.65* (accounting for McCabe being a 4m player retained.

No I haven’t, that’s a lot of math. Most if not all these teams have better D, and better supplemental players imo……..

 

[IPS]

This team is flawed all right.

The result of another trust fund baby hiring. Treliving appears to be equally smart as Dubas. The type who apologizes to his dinner before eating it.

Then trades a 2nd to the empty plate for dessert.

The incompetence of this management group is mind numbing. They tried to make the team better. Instead they accidentally made it worse.

That all starts at the top.

With the same shitheads following the same shit plan. With Dubas they had an idiot surrounded by idiots. Nothing has changed in that regards.

Whatever bad advice Treliving got, and chose to follow, is on him.

If someone tells me to do something stupid at work I don't just do it. Even if it's my boss. If fans on this forum could see the moves he made were bad at the time why couldn't Treliving?

He's the type that will pee on the electric fence despite all the warning signs.

I'm really starting to believe you prefer to just shit on the team rather then have them win.

What a horrible place to be in.

 

[notbias]

Gotta work on that PK:

View attachment 764396

We got rid of our best PKing D and a bunch of forwards... but I am sure the sv% is atrocious on the PK so hope it improves with just that.

 

[Jojalu]

Have you gone team by team to look at what their 5-9 forwards and 1-4 defense are being paid?

Edit:
I had some time this morning with the kid still adjusting to DST and did the forwards. Our 5-9 spend of 14.35 has us 19th in the league, a touch above the league average of 14.25. Terrible teams like Boston and Tampa are below 11m. Colorado, Vegas and NYR between 13.05 and 14.05.

Interestingly enough, our 5th forward is the tied for the 3rd highest across all teams.

Edit 2.0 - focusing on just the listed teams Defense 1-4
Boston - 23.8
Tampa - 22.7
Colorado - 22.6
Vegas - 22.1
NYR - 24.4

Toronto -20.65* (accounting for McCabe being a 4m player retained.

This seems to indicate that they spent their money poorly on forwards 5-9 and should have spent more on the backend.

The Leafs could have spent like Tampa and Bos and gone 11 million on 5-9 and had 3.5 million more to shore up the D.

 

[DraftSchmaft]

GM sucks because he couldn't fix inherited flaws in 1 free agency lol

 

[Darch]

I LOVE this team. I want to see them win, but top down there needs to be a shakeup or Brad needs to trade a core 4 member. Something must be done let’s not waste another season. It’s so sad to think of how much of Austin and Mitches career has been a waste

Just enjoy the show! Win/lose matters so little in the end.

 

[notbias]

GM sucks because he couldn't fix inherited flaws in 1 free agency lol

We had very few regular season flaws... not sure where this narrative is coming from...

Domi looks like he may be able to find his role at C so there is one bad signing that may turn out to be good, but the rest we still need to figure out.

The top 7 scorers on the team were already signed, same with the #1 goalie (or at least the goalie playing like a #1)

 

[4thline]

No I haven’t, that’s a lot of math. Most if not all these teams have better D, and better supplemental players imo……..

Don't you think that if you're going to constantly and insistently assert an inherently math based position as fact into every thread that having actually done the math would be a good start?

How can they? They're not spending enough

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

I'm really starting to believe you prefer to just shit on the team rather then have them win.

What a horrible place to be in.

Hard to believe that just a few short years ago I still thought this team was gonna win the cup.

I'm all for cutting off the foot to save the leg. That means them losing enough games to get Shanahan fired. I almost feel like the team is putting me into a position similar to 2015 where I need to cheer for them to lose again.

It's the only way I see them being able to move forward.

 

[4thline]

This seems to indicate that they spent their money poorly on forwards 5-9 and should have spent more on the backend.

The Leafs could have spent like Tampa and Bos and gone 11 million on 5-9 and had 3.5 million more to shore up the D.

That's a valid insight.

The one ironclad truth is that anyone that blames the performance of the F group/ depth at forward etc. on cap constraints from the core 4 is objectively wrong.

 

[Stephen]

The leafs have the same record at this point last year as they do now. Last year this is right about the time they turned in on and didn't look back. Can that happen again? Yes, it sure can.

But there is something different this year. Last year a large part of their slow start was that Matthews didn't get going, the offense wasn't producing well yet. That changed.

This year that isn't the problem. The issue seems more of a 'fundamental/not easy to fix'. This team is very flawed on the back end, playing worse than they were last year. Matthews is 'going' already, for them to turn this around the need to play better team-D and that starts with the blueline. I don't see that getting fixed as easily this year.

This year is a pretty weird dynamic for sure and the new middle class feels very cheaply put together and a bad fit… I suppose you can say our fate now rests on just normal NHLers finding their career level.

Domi, Bertuzzi to revert to career average, Klingberg to stabilize and just get an NHL body to replace Reaves and things can get back onto an even footing. Samsonov has had an up and down career so I don’t know how much you can expect, and how much you’ll need Woll and Jones to factor in.

The amount of hero mode efforts required from Matthews and Marner isn’t sustainable. If Matthews is scoring a hat trick every game and we’re 50/50 to pull out a win - not to mention having to go to OT - this season will slip away very quickly.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Have you gone team by team to look at what their 5-9 forwards and 1-4 defense are being paid?

Edit:
I had some time this morning with the kid still adjusting to DST and did the forwards. Our 5-9 spend of 14.35 has us 19th in the league, a touch above the league average of 14.25. Terrible teams like Boston and Tampa are below 11m. Colorado, Vegas and NYR between 13.05 and 14.05.

Interestingly enough, our 5th forward is the tied for the 3rd highest across all teams.

Edit 2.0 - focusing on just the listed teams Defense 1-4
Boston - 23.8
Tampa - 22.7
Colorado - 22.6
Vegas - 22.1
NYR - 24.4

Toronto -20.65* (accounting for McCabe being a 4m player retained.

This is interesting, good stuff. I just wanted to say that I much appreciate your posts and one reason for that is that most of the people who post a lot of stats seem to have an agenda. You seem to be of that rare breed who digs into the data with an open mind, trying to understand the situation better as opposed to going in with a set POV, and then only posting cherry picked stats that support your agenda while ignoring everything else.

Cliff notes

 

[Phion Keneuf]

We have cap savings with guys like Knies, Robertson, Liljegren, Timmins, Woll, Holmberg...

We have a lot of self-inflicted wounds this year and could have a lot of cap to work with.

This lineup looks better and more balanced to me and we have 9 million in cap...

Knies - Matthews - Marner
Holmberg - Tavares - Nylander
Robertson - Domi - Jarnkrok
Gregor - Kampf - Lafferty

Rielly - Brodie
McCabe - Liljegren
Gio - Timmins

Woll
Samsanov

9 million to work with and a better lineup... anyone who thinks these aren't self-inflicted wounds is in denial in my opinion.

I don’t get the Holmberg fascination. This guy should be nowhere near an NHL top 6. He’s barely a passable bottom liner at this point. Maybe the potential is there, but I don’t see anything in him that separates him from someone like Gregor.

 

[4thline]

This is interesting, good stuff. I just wanted to say that I much appreciate your posts and one reason for that is that most of the people who post a lot of stats seem to have an agenda. You seem to be of that rare breed who digs into the data with an open mind, trying to understand the situation better as opposed to going in with a set POV, and then only posting cherry picked stats that support your agenda while ignoring everything else.

Cliff notes

Aw shucks .

Thanks man

 

[GoonieFace]

Well, compared to other teams top 4 forwards the Leafs have spent significantly more. They are 40mil right now.

Boston is 27.2
Colorado is 34.95
Tampa is 33.75
Vegas is 30.4

This is without Matthews raise and eventually Marner and Nylander. Maybe they haven’t spent wisely on the mid level, but this much front loaded to 4 players is a little much.

 

[ACC1224]

It's always strikes me as odd when someone starts a thread and then never returns to post in it.
Weird.

 

[Buds17]

I don’t get the Holmberg fascination. This guy should be nowhere near an NHL top 6. He’s barely a passable bottom liner at this point. Maybe the potential is there, but I don’t see anything in him that separates him from someone like Gregor.

While I think he could play in the bottom six, a top six role definitely seems to be overly ambitious (which might very well continue to be the case going forward).

 

[colchar]

The Leafs are flawed from the top down.

Incredible analysis, just incredible.

Organizationally having a group own the team that has extreme power and control in Canada.

Huh?

Seemingly the fans and media are part of the issue.

Only morons believe that. Fans and media are far worse in other sports in other cities, but have winning teams.

The players feel they have to take as much as they can. The culture seems to suck.

Again, absolutely amazing analysis there.

I LOVE this team. I want to see them win, but top down there needs to be a shakeup or Brad needs to trade a core 4 member. Something must be done let’s not waste another season. It’s so sad to think of how much of Austin and Mitches career has been a waste

I fear nothing will be accomplished while Shanny is in charge.