The Jets D

[DRW204]

Call me crazy but the forum could be overthinking all this just a tad... it might just come down to age - Stanley was one year older than Samberg so got more of a shot - Samberg's first real season was last year and he won't get his first big contract until he is 26... I think its an outdated view but that might be what's going on...

Dillon has to go at the TD - and I think Chevy will get a decent return - but Dillon is a solid player... DeMelo would be good for another two years

I'm also a big proponent of Samberg on the right side with JoMo - that opens things up but still not sure what the Jets D looks like in two years

JoMo-Samberg
Heinola-Lundmark
Chisholm-Salomondsson

Big gamble on a lot of guys hitting... Jets need to figure out a way to get players into the lineup this year - likely after the TD

the way i see it, stanley had a solid canadian division year and the 21-22 year he struggled along with many others, and some organization distractions w/ a coach quitting mid-year or supposed team culture, accountability etc issues. so the 22-23 season was a bit of a blank slate for everyone with a new experienced coach and much more "positive vibes."

stanley was playing fine before he got hurt. in everyone's stat du off-season (xGF%) prior to getting hurt near the end of Oct the Jets w/ stanley on the ice were fine, as well as in xGA which i think is a bit more telling for Dmen (since Fwds influence heavily the xGF component). of course smaller sample of games, but given the same sample as everyone else he was fine to start. comes back against STL in December play well and the Jets Win, and then gets hurt again the following game. he struggled for the rest of the year and barely played. it was samberg's spot from thereon out.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

the way i see it, stanley had a solid canadian division year and the 21-22 year he struggled along with many others, and some organization distractions w/ a coach quitting mid-year or supposed team culture, accountability etc issues. so the 22-23 season was a bit of a blank slate for everyone with a new experienced coach and much more "positive vibes."

stanley was playing fine before he got hurt. in everyone's stat du off-season (xGF%) prior to getting hurt near the end of Oct the Jets w/ stanley on the ice were fine, as well as in xGA which i think is a bit more telling for Dmen (since Fwds influence heavily the xGF component). of course smaller sample of games, but given the same sample as everyone else he was fine to start. comes back against STL in December play well and the Jets Win, and then gets hurt again the following game. he struggled for the rest of the year and barely played. it was samberg's spot from thereon out.

I don't think Stan has ever been horrible. I don't think he has ever been good either. He has benn OK on the 3rd pair. There are worse Dmen in the league. Jets in recent years have given quite a lot of TOI to worse Dmen. But I think OK on the 3rd line is his ceiling and he has reached it.

The worst thing about him as #7 is just that he is part of a roadblock in front of other players who might turn out to be better.

 

[WolfHouse]

the way i see it, stanley had a solid canadian division year and the 21-22 year he struggled along with many others, and some organization distractions w/ a coach quitting mid-year or supposed team culture, accountability etc issues. so the 22-23 season was a bit of a blank slate for everyone with a new experienced coach and much more "positive vibes."

stanley was playing fine before he got hurt. in everyone's stat du off-season (xGF%) prior to getting hurt near the end of Oct the Jets w/ stanley on the ice were fine, as well as in xGA which i think is a bit more telling for Dmen (since Fwds influence heavily the xGF component). of course smaller sample of games, but given the same sample as everyone else he was fine to start. comes back against STL in December play well and the Jets Win, and then gets hurt again the following game. he struggled for the rest of the year and barely played. it was samberg's spot from thereon out.

The only reason I didn't include him is the rumour that he wants out and I have a hard time seeing where he will get real playing time - UNLESS there's two spots opened up at the TD from DeMelo and Dillon

That being said, I think he caps out at 3rd pairing... but is he actually better than Capo or even Chisholm? Sure seems like he was the wrong choice over Kovacevic

 

[DRW204]

Agreed, things like contracts, waiver status also play a role here. Sometimes it's not always about the best player but managing assets and contracts.

I think Ville was given positive feedback at the end of the year and him and the org have come to an understanding.

While I think Bones is a good defensive minded coach he hasn't been amazing for every defenseman that has gone through him. Heiskinen for example was pretty stagnant under him and exploaded to a Norris caliber dmen the moment he was gone.

the major difference b/w heiskanen w/ and w/o bowness is the pp usage. prior to this year, it seems like klingberg was performing v well in that role, and Dallas as a team was usually tops in the league in PP goal-scoring efficiency w/ him on the ice. so hardly any justification to be usurped.

w/o klingberg in Dallas now; heiskanen scored 3x as many PP-points this year than what he did in the 21-22 season with evidently a career-high in minutes. he got a bigger piece of the pie. do you think heiskanen would not have gotten the PP1 spot if Klingberg was gone during Bowness' time? it's basically the one thing Klingberg was actually good at DAL w/Klingberg was ranging from 2nd-11th in GF/60 the 3-years Bowness was there. if DAL was performing poorly w/ him on the PP id think there'd be room for criticism. but that's not the case.

if you want to see exploded, look at Morrissey this year. his last 3-years in 5v5 production would barely equal what he achieved this year. or Demelo. Both of them scoring at over 2x the efficiency compared to years prior. or how the Jets actually exploded up from their usual bottom-10 in the league in PK or 5v5 defense.

 

[TS Quint]

B

The only reason I didn't include him is the rumour that he wants out and I have a hard time seeing where he will get real playing time - UNLESS there's two spots opened up at the TD from DeMelo and Dillon

That being said, I think he caps out at 3rd pairing... but is he actually better than Capo or even Chisholm? Sure seems like he was the wrong choice over Kovacevic

The Habs defense is stupid bad. Kovacevic is what he is waiver wire fodder. Kovacevic is not going to contribute to winning hockey. Stanley would still walk into Montreal ahead of Kovacevic.

 

[WolfHouse]

B

The Habs defense is stupid bad. Kovacevic is what he is waiver wire fodder. Stanley would still walk into Montreal ahead of Kovacevic.

It is stupid bad... except Kova's metrics are good.

 

[TS Quint]

It is stupid bad... except Kova's metrics are good.

Some BS stats on the Habs 6th defenseman don't make him good. The limited time alone makes any stats dubious. You can hide a lot of shit with only 17:25 a game. If he was good the Habs would know it.

 

[WolfHouse]

Some BS stats on the Habs 6th defenseman don't make him good. The limited time alone makes any stats dubious. You can hide a lot of shit with only 17:25 a game. If he was good the Habs would know it.

I agree... you can hide even more with Stanley's 13-15 mins a game.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Some BS stats on the Habs 6th defenseman don't make him good. The limited time alone makes any stats dubious. You can hide a lot of shit with only 17:25 a game. If he was good the Habs would know it.

Without trying to claim that Kova is some late bloomer elite Dman ........... consider who we have playing the right side and what they are being paid.

I never thought he was any more than a 3rd pair Dman but he is a RHS 3rd pair Dman who is big, plays a physical game and skates well.

It is no secret that we need a legit 1st pair RHD. How good could our D corps be if we had that and Kova at 3RHD?

JMo - xxx, legit 1 RHD
Samberg - DeMelo
Dillon/Heinola/Chisholm - Kovacevic
CopaCabanna or Stanley

If our D corps is shaky it is because of the absence of that 1RHD and the presence of Pionk and Schmidt. It is not about the left side. Maybe you swap Dillon and Samberg as long as Dillon is here. Maybe we lose DeMelo and have to play Heinola in his spot. Still better than what we have and a lot less cap devoted to it.

 

[Bob E]

I wonder if Columbus is a better fit for a Scheifele trade for a Dman. They definitely need to add a scoring C to take the pressure off Fantilli, and (if Columbus is on his 10-team no trade list) Scheifele might find it appealing to play with Johnny hockey to get big point totals for a big contract and payday next year.

On D they have:

Werenski - Severson
Provorov - Peeke
Gudbranson - Boqvist

With Jiricek, Mateychuk, and Ceulemans developing. Jiricek is soon to be ready to push for an NHL spot on the right side.

Now, resigning Scheifele might be a problem for the Blue Jackets, so what would they give up to land him if he's only a rental? Likely not one of Jiricek, Werenski or Provorov and Severson has a NMC.

But perhaps the Jets and Jackets might be interested in deal including Peeke, Marchenko, Sillinger and conditional pick (if Columbus makes playoffs and Scheifele plays 50% of playoff games) for Scheifele, Ehlers and B prospect (say Lundmark or Harkins) going back to make the value work.

Jets get a bigger top 4 dman, a young middle 6 C who had a bad year after a strong rookie year, and a scoring RWer to offset the loss of Ehlers. Perhaps Chibrikov (Ehlers-lite) and Marchenko can create some chemistry in the future. The risk/reward would be Sillinger. If he gets back on track, this could be a really good deal for Jets.

Columbus gets a #1 C they can try to convince to sign (and if he's a fit, who knows) to play with Gaudreau, and Laine's buddy to help him get back to his previous scoring levels. They run with Gaudreau-Scheifele-Johnson, Ehlers-Jenner-Laine, Bemstrom-Fantilli-Roslovic, Robinson-Kuraly-Oliver. If Scheifele won't sign, then they move him at the deadline for a good haul of prospects and picks, and continue to develop Fantilli as their future #1 C. The added bonus for Columbus is Ehlers and his chemistry with Laine. Perhaps both resign when their deals are up in couple of years.

Edit: seems like too big a risk for the Jets with potentially very limited upside. I'd want a better dman than Peeke and less risk than Sillinger. I've learned my lesson. I should stop drinking at the cottage on a Sunday and posting.

 

[TS Quint]

Without trying to claim that Kova is some late bloomer elite Dman ........... consider who we have playing the right side and what they are being paid.

I never thought he was any more than a 3rd pair Dman but he is a RHS 3rd pair Dman who is big, plays a physical game and skates well.

It is no secret that we need a legit 1st pair RHD. How good could our D corps be if we had that and Kova at 3RHD?

JMo - xxx, legit 1 RHD
Samberg - DeMelo
Dillon/Heinola/Chisholm - Kovacevic
CopaCabanna or Stanley

If our D corps is shaky it is because of the absence of that 1RHD and the presence of Pionk and Schmidt. It is not about the left side. Maybe you swap Dillon and Samberg as long as Dillon is here. Maybe we lose DeMelo and have to play Heinola in his spot. Still better than what we have and a lot less cap devoted to it.

He's 5th pair waiver wire fodder. The Jets aren't missing him in the least. He's fulfilling his role in the NHL by helping the Habs secure top draft picks. The love of crap waiver wire players is just weird.

 

[Whileee]

Another look at the Jets' D, using the new HockeyViz "synthetic goal" aggregate metric.

Jets had four "top-4" level D (including two top pair D) last season. The problem was that Bowness played the Jets' worst-performing D (Pionk) in a top-pair role, and one of their top D (Samberg) really only got playing time on the 3rd pair, after spending time in the press box before Stanley's injury.

In any case, the Jets can put together a decent top-4 with Morrissey, Samberg, DeMelo and Dillon. If Pionk rebounds, he can certainly be a 3rd pair D along with Schmidt. But I am concerned that Bowness is more likely to deploy his D based on seniority, rather than performance.

Too bad the Jets haven't had this Pionk for the past couple of seasons. He really crashed after his injuries / concussion in the middle of 2021/22 season.

 

[surixon]

Another look at the Jets' D, using the new HockeyViz "synthetic goal" aggregate metric.

Jets had four "top-4" level D (including two top pair D) last season. The problem was that Bowness played the Jets' worst-performing D (Pionk) in a top-pair role, and one of their top D (Samberg) really only got playing time on the 3rd pair, after spending time in the press box before Stanley's injury.

In any case, the Jets can put together a decent top-4 with Morrissey, Samberg, DeMelo and Dillon. If Pionk rebounds, he can certainly be a 3rd pair D along with Schmidt. But I am concerned that Bowness is more likely to deploy his D based on seniority, rather than performance.

View attachment 737711

Too bad the Jets haven't had this Pionk for the past couple of seasons. He really crashed after his injuries / concussion in the middle of 2021/22 season.

View attachment 737712

Hoping Snerg gets a look up the lineup this year and maintains his performance. Not always easy to do in tougher usage. If he can then that is a massive boon for the teams dcore.

 

[BoneDocUK]

Hoping Snerg gets a look up the lineup this year and maintains his performance. Not always easy to do in tougher usage. If he can then that is a massive boon for the teams dcore.

Agree.

And thanks @Whileee for the detailed look at a possible Jets top 4 that is optimized for performance over seniority / contract.

2021-23 Pionk should be nowhere near a top 4, regardless of who he was traded for an how much he's paid.

 

[ps241]

Another look at the Jets' D, using the new HockeyViz "synthetic goal" aggregate metric.

Jets had four "top-4" level D (including two top pair D) last season. The problem was that Bowness played the Jets' worst-performing D (Pionk) in a top-pair role, and one of their top D (Samberg) really only got playing time on the 3rd pair, after spending time in the press box before Stanley's injury.

In any case, the Jets can put together a decent top-4 with Morrissey, Samberg, DeMelo and Dillon. If Pionk rebounds, he can certainly be a 3rd pair D along with Schmidt. But I am concerned that Bowness is more likely to deploy his D based on seniority, rather than performance.

View attachment 737711

Too bad the Jets haven't had this Pionk for the past couple of seasons. He really crashed after his injuries / concussion in the middle of 2021/22 season.

View attachment 737712

Interesting and does show how volatile results can be from season to season. We need to have Pionk bounce back to an acceptable level. Really tough to see 10+ million tied up on what should be our 3rd pair based on this aggregate metric at least.

 

[Whileee]

Interesting and does show how volatile results can be from season to season. We need to have Pionk bounce back to an acceptable level. Really tough to see 10+ million tied up on what should be our 3rd pair based on this aggregate metric at least.

Agree about volatility. Note that in 2020-21, Morrissey was performing at a below 3rd pair level based on injuries and personal challenges, but bounced back and has been outstanding the past couple of seasons. If Pionk can rebound to even a 2nd pair level and isn't over-utilized, the Jets' D could be a lot better next season.

A reminder that the Jets were top 10 in the NHL in xGA/60 at 5v5 in the second half of the season. If Hellebuyck is playing at his par, the Jets could be a strong defensive team next season.

 

[ecolad]

I wonder if Columbus is a better fit for a Scheifele trade for a Dman. They definitely need to add a scoring C to take the pressure off Fantilli, and (if Columbus is on his 10-team no trade list) Scheifele might find it appealing to play with Johnny hockey to get big point totals for a big contract and payday next year.

On D they have:

Werenski - Severson
Provorov - Peeke
Gudbranson - Boqvist

With Jiricek, Mateychuk, and Ceulemans developing. Jiricek is soon to be ready to push for an NHL spot on the right side.

Now, resigning Scheifele might be a problem for the Blue Jackets, so what would they give up to land him if he's only a rental? Likely not one of Jiricek, Werenski or Provorov and Severson has a NMC.

But perhaps the Jets and Jackets might be interested in deal including Peeke, Marchenko, Sillinger and conditional pick (if Columbus makes playoffs and Scheifele plays 50% of playoff games) for Scheifele, Ehlers and B prospect (say Lundmark or Harkins) going back to make the value work.

Jets get a bigger top 4 dman, a young middle 6 C who had a bad year after a strong rookie year, and a scoring RWer to offset the loss of Ehlers. Perhaps Chibrikov (Ehlers-lite) and Marchenko can create some chemistry in the future. The risk/reward would be Sillinger. If he gets back on track, this could be a really good deal for Jets.

Columbus gets a #1 C they can try to convince to sign (and if he's a fit, who knows) to play with Gaudreau, and Laine's buddy to help him get back to his previous scoring levels. They run with Gaudreau-Scheifele-Johnson, Ehlers-Jenner-Laine, Bemstrom-Fantilli-Roslovic, Robinson-Kuraly-Oliver. If Scheifele won't sign, then they move him at the deadline for a good haul of prospects and picks, and continue to develop Fantilli as their future #1 C. The added bonus for Columbus is Ehlers and his chemistry with Laine. Perhaps both resign when their deals are up in couple of years.

Edit: seems like too big a risk for the Jets with potentially very limited upside. I'd want a better dman than Peeke and less risk than Sillinger. I've learned my lesson. I should stop drinking at the cottage on a Sunday and posting.

While you have (arguably) understated how much the Jet`s might need in return for a trade of both Scheifele and Ehlers, I commend you for thinking of broadening the thinking so as to make Scheife only part of a larger trade. Probably the only way to make a "hockey trade" given the apparent trade market conditions for Scheifele alone.Gotta say, I don`t have much confidence that Chevy initiates potential trade discussions with other GM`s in this context but I`d luv to be surprised.

 

[WolfHouse]

Another look at the Jets' D, using the new HockeyViz "synthetic goal" aggregate metric.

Jets had four "top-4" level D (including two top pair D) last season. The problem was that Bowness played the Jets' worst-performing D (Pionk) in a top-pair role, and one of their top D (Samberg) really only got playing time on the 3rd pair, after spending time in the press box before Stanley's injury.

In any case, the Jets can put together a decent top-4 with Morrissey, Samberg, DeMelo and Dillon. If Pionk rebounds, he can certainly be a 3rd pair D along with Schmidt. But I am concerned that Bowness is more likely to deploy his D based on seniority, rather than performance.

View attachment 737711

Too bad the Jets haven't had this Pionk for the past couple of seasons. He really crashed after his injuries / concussion in the middle of 2021/22 season.

View attachment 737712

Is that not more of a reflection on the all-canadian season outlier though? Jordie Benn and Sami Niku are not second pairing D

I also think Samberg is a lot better than anyone is giving him credit for - simply the fact that Schmidt still ranks as a third pairing while playing in the same 'sheltered' role as Samberg says its all.

It does seem like we will let the two wrong vet D walk this year and struggle when we will need to actually lean on Schmidt and Pionk in 2024-25

 

[Whileee]

Is that not more of a reflection on the all-canadian season outlier though? Jordie Benn and Sami Niku are not second pairing D

I also think Samberg is a lot better than anyone is giving him credit for - simply the fact that Schmidt still ranks as a third pairing while playing in the same 'sheltered' role as Samberg says its all.

It does seem like we will let the two wrong vet D walk this year and struggle when we will need to actually lean on Schmidt and Pionk in 2024-25

Canadian season might have been a bit of an outlier, but Pionk was so much better than other Jets' D and ranked highly within the Division.

 

[Eyeseeing]

heinola is not the same level as morrissey, or the elite nhl dmen. there's no go play in the NHL and expect great results like morrissey this past year, or NHL-path like makar, fox (couple players brought up earlier). he's closer to replacement level than the elite tier.

he was not going to be afforded the same margin of mistakes and whatnot as those elite dmen b/c his strengths, production, or when he's playing at his best is likely going to be nowhere near theirs. if he had a game or production similar to those aforementioned players then there would be more leniency. you can live w/ Makar or Fox, (or Morrissey this year) making a grave mistake or 2... why? because they're putting up almost yearly 70+ pts/PPG, or 20 goals in Makar's case, as well as consistent Norris caliber Dmen, while being overall net positives at 5v5.

if there's one thing that i think posters (& including myself) sometimes need to realize is bowness has probably forgotten more about NHL defense than we will ever know. there's been 3 NHL coaches who have had eyes on heinola in games + practices + off-the-ice work + stats in the NHL and AHL. the one w/ the highest Defensive acumen doesn't believe he's ready to be a net positive contributor over and beyond what we currently have on defense. but somehow posters on here think it's as easy as - oh yea just go play like X star defenseman, or play his game (which is open to so much interpretation or variance), or quote some ambiguous AHL stat (which id like to see if there's high transference to the NHL) that they have it all figured out. i don't think it works that way.

i had high hopes for heinola, and perhaps he can turn it around there's lots of his career left. but so far there hasn't been much to write home about w/r/t his NHL play as of late. for fringe players they need to make the most of their opportunities, and a team needs to ice players that they feel are net-positives if they're in win-now/compete years.

You really don’t know what Bowness thinks to be fair.
Heinola is running out of time here regardless.
We can hash it to death but he really hasn’t gotten the same opportunities as others and that’s the reality of sports and life.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

You really don’t know what Bowness thinks to be fair.
Heinola is running out of time here regardless.
We can hash it to death but he really hasn’t gotten the same opportunities as others and that’s the reality of sports and life.

He kinda has tho. He was just drafted the latest of Stan Samberg and heinola. Stan didn't see any nhl action until what? Year 3 of his developed? Samberg played full season or 2 on the Moose. Ville is younger and was given more at a younger age. It's just reality

 

[DannyGallivan]

heinola is not the same level as morrissey, or the elite nhl dmen. there's no go play in the NHL and expect great results like morrissey this past year, or NHL-path like makar, fox (couple players brought up earlier). he's closer to replacement level than the elite tier.

he was not going to be afforded the same margin of mistakes and whatnot as those elite dmen b/c his strengths, production, or when he's playing at his best is likely going to be nowhere near theirs. if he had a game or production similar to those aforementioned players then there would be more leniency. you can live w/ Makar or Fox, (or Morrissey this year) making a grave mistake or 2... why? because they're putting up almost yearly 70+ pts/PPG, or 20 goals in Makar's case, as well as consistent Norris caliber Dmen, while being overall net positives at 5v5.

if there's one thing that i think posters (& including myself) sometimes need to realize is bowness has probably forgotten more about NHL defense than we will ever know. there's been 3 NHL coaches who have had eyes on heinola in games + practices + off-the-ice work + stats in the NHL and AHL. the one w/ the highest Defensive acumen doesn't believe he's ready to be a net positive contributor over and beyond what we currently have on defense. but somehow posters on here think it's as easy as - oh yea just go play like X star defenseman, or play his game (which is open to so much interpretation or variance), or quote some ambiguous AHL stat (which id like to see if there's high transference to the NHL) that they have it all figured out. i don't think it works that way.

i had high hopes for heinola, and perhaps he can turn it around there's lots of his career left. but so far there hasn't been much to write home about w/r/t his NHL play as of late. for fringe players they need to make the most of their opportunities, and a team needs to ice players that they feel are net-positives if they're in win-now/compete years.

Well said.

 

[DRW204]

You really don’t know what Bowness thinks to be fair.
Heinola is running out of time here regardless.
We can hash it to death but he really hasn’t gotten the same opportunities as others and that’s the reality of sports and life.

perhaps not. but other posters seem to believe they do. so why can't it work both ways? i look at the transactions the organization has done (or not done), the players they've inserted or prioritized across multiple coaches now. what has given you the impression that heinola is above any of the current 6-7 NHL Dmen? people probably still hanging on some little smidge of a Heinola mention that Chevy brought up years ago.

i still think his first stint with the Jets was his best and since then the Jets decided to bring in multiple high-priced & tenured vet Dmen via trade, Samberg has gotten better and established himself as a legit NHL player, and Stanley had also had a v good CDN Division year where he looked like a 3rd pair option.

i don't disagree he hasn't gotten opportunities. it's also hard to get opportunity when there's 6 maybe 7 dmen ahead of you that are better, & you're not a transcendent prospect like Makar, Fox, Heiskanen etc. they're not just going to make room for you or just insert you in the lineup and let you do your thing like those guys.

 

[KingBogo]

He kinda has tho. He was just drafted the latest of Stan Samberg and heinola. Stan didn't see any nhl action until what? Year 3 of his developed? Samberg played full season or 2 on the Moose. Ville is younger and was given more at a younger age. It's just reality

Actually this upcoming season will line up exactly with the seasons Stanley and Samberg got their opportunities. Both of those players got their opportunities in year 3 of their ELC and this will be year 3 of Heinola’s ELC. If Ville doesn’t get opportunity this season then it will be fair to say he has been given less opportunity.

 

[Howard Chuck]

Actually this upcoming season will line up exactly with the seasons Stanley and Samberg got their opportunities. Both of those players got their opportunities in year 3 of their ELC and this will be year 3 of Heinola’s ELC. If Ville doesn’t get opportunity this season then it will be fair to say he has been given less opportunity.

Agree. And I’m probably one of Ville’s biggest (hopeful) fans.