Speculation: The Jakob Chychrun Thread

[wickedwitch]

So I've posted a bunch about why I (and maybe the Caps) would be hesitant to sign Chychrun to a huge contract. I'm compiling all that here in one thread.

The number one point is that Chychrun to my eyes is not a 1D. He's a 2D at best. Carlson is still the team's 1D. (See this link: Capitals marvel at John Carlson ahead of 700 point ceremony or look at their total ice time.) Also Carlson is young enough (and playing well enough) that I suspect the Caps will extend him. Chychrun's very good but he's not amazing and thus should not be paid as such. However, I wonder of Chychrun and his agent feel like he is a 1D and should thus be paid as such.

Why do I not think he's a 1D? His point totals are very good this season, but this season has been a bit of an anomaly. For example, his shooting % is the highest of his career and nearly double what it's been the past 5 season. I suppose it's definitely possible he's turned a corner. But his analytics worry me. In particular, his xGF% is not good. This with-or-without chart is particularly damning: WSH 2425 Chychrun With-or-Without You. Basically every player on the Caps has a better xGF% without Chychrun.

Now, xGF% is not a perfect stat. By eye, Chychrun is genuinely better at finishing which compensates for the fewer good chances. But on top of the lousy xGF%, he's getting sheltered zone starts and the easiest opponents. Among all Caps defensemen (and ignoring Alexeyev and McIlrath), Chychrun plays against the opposing forwards with the least amount of ice time (which are typically the weakest forwards): WSH 2425 D QoCT. He also has the highest o-zone start % of all defensemen (2024-25 Washington Capitals Roster, Stats, Injuries, Scores, Results, Shootouts | Hockey-Reference.com).

So all of that troubles me. And Carbs doesn't trust him the way he trusts the other defenseman. Chychrun gets the least ice time when defending a 1 goal lead (WSH 2425 D Score Deployment). And he's the only defenseman to not PK. Now that doesn't mean tha Carbs doesn't trust him, just that he trusts him less.

So where does that leave the Caps? I honestly don't know. Their advance stats may have a more favorable view of Chychrun. But they haven't re-signed him yet, so maybe they're seeing the same things I am.

At some contract level, these issues don't matter. He's a very good player. So something like 8x$7 million would be appropriate to me. I could see the Caps going up to 8x$7.9 million just to keep him right behind Carlson. If Chychrun isn't interested in a contract like that, I'd be willing to go big money (>$12 million) on a very short term (2-3 year contract) with minimal no-trade protection. That way if it doesn't work, the Caps can retain half and trade him, because retaining for a year or two shouldn't kill them. But it's easy to imagine that some team feels that he's a 1D and would be willing to pay him like one. And it's certainly easy to imagine that his agent thinks he's a 1D.

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[kicksavedave]

Pretty much sums it up, I wonder what they'll actually do. I thought I read somewhere, that the Caps and Chych's agent have started some talks, so there is that.

 

[Chokingdogs]

Bird in hand…

I should, although hell will freeze over before I ever do, compile all the GDT posts that rail on Carlson for all his defensive gaffes.

 

[qc14]

I get all of the reservations about Chychrun but at the same time this team needs a 2D and they need one that can generate offense and he is both of those things. It's not really like there are any other options in trade or UFA either.

I'd rather overpay Chychrun than not have him ...

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Do we think Chychrun is better then prime Orlov? That might be the better comp used for 2D money.

Orlov wanted that type of contract and we traded his ass.

 

[Chokingdogs]

I do. JC puck handles in ways DO could only dream of. Not that I’m saying he was bad/sub par, it’s just that at least several times a game I’m left thinking, how did he do that?

Orlov played a bit more physical tho, he was good for a few solid pops a game, whereas JC - for as big as he is - is less apt to.

To me it seems JC’s skill set, combined with carberrys system and the other players, just fit together.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I do. JC puck handles in ways DO could only dream of. Not that I’m saying he was bad/sub par, it’s just that at least several times a game I’m left thinking, how did he do that?

Orlov played a bit more physical tho, he was good for a few solid pops a game, whereas JC - for as big as he is - is less apt to.

To me it seems JC’s skill set, combined with carberrys system and the other players, just fit together.

Yeah Orlov was prone to a pizza pass about every other game.

 

[Kazer]

Wanted to add an illustration of shooting impacts:

Adam Fox shot 12.4% last year (Chychrun is 12.2% currently) and scored 17 goals. This year, Fox is shooting 4.1% and has just 4 goals on the year (on pace for 6).

So, if Chychrun was shooting in line with his career average (7.3%), he would have 8 goals instead of 14. Caps must factor that (along with the poor underlying numbers) into their contract offer.

Having said all that, what really scares me is that if his offense dries up that he will basically be unplayable. I'll admit that it's probably unlikely, but it becomes a lot more plausible with a long-term contract. I would sign him immediately to a 3x8 type deal, but I would guess he would refuse that (as he probably should).

Ultimately, I trust BM & GMCP, but there's a lot of indigestion for me on this potential contract. If it was a slam dunk, my guess is that he would have re-signed already.

 

[Silky mitts]

If I'm his agent and the Caps aren't offering 8x$8.5M I don't consider presenting Chychrun the offer - Caps can say that's our current internal cap for non Hall of Famers - all these other offers he's clearly better waiting until the tampering period

 

[Brian23]

Adam Fox shot 12.4% last year (Chychrun is 12.2% currently) and scored 17 goals. This year, Fox is shooting 4.1% and has just 4 goals on the year (on pace for 6).

This seems a bit cherry picked as the whole team around Fox is trash, which is always going to bring down numbers. Doubly so for a defensemen who'll rely on his forwards less then himself to get good shooting opportunities.

The simple answer is this team has coveted Chychurn for years, he's been playing well, and he's a young good to great player in this league. I don't understand this hesitance in re-signing him.

 

[zappa4ever]

Locking down Top-4 D should always be a priority
Locking down Top-4 D that are Top-5 in GF should always be a priority
Pay the man. 8x8 = no-brainer (esp w/Cap jumping significantly)

don't care about shooting %
don't care about his Fancy stats, don't care that he's not being used on PK
He's a Net Positive by far and helps Win games

 

[Kolzilla]

Do we think Chychrun is better then prime Orlov? That might be the better comp used for 2D money.

Orlov wanted that type of contract and we traded his ass.

I think that was more a function of Orlov's age and the team direction at the time. If Orlov was 26 and willing to extend at market value, we most likely would've extended him.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Do we think Chychrun is better then prime Orlov? That might be the better comp used for 2D money.

Orlov wanted that type of contract and we traded his ass.

He wanted it at 31….big difference.