Confirmed with Link: The Jakob Chychrun Thread (update: 3/25/25 | signs 8-year, $72M extension)

[895]

I think once Ekblad signs 7x10m+ we’ll feel better

 

[Silky mitts]

Both topdown and viz say Chychrun is having a garbage season, way worse than he was last yea, I don’t see how it’s possible for numbers to say he’s having a worst season than last year. Even the heat map has Chychrun generating a ton of offense.

 

[kicksavedave]

Couple of posts about the NMC and potential expansion coming. We as fans need to be prepared that, while BM/CP will manage it well, we're going to lose a really nice player we don't want to lose. Would be fun to think about who we would protect if we assume the Seattle expansion rules?

 

[Calicaps]

Couple of posts about the NMC and potential expansion coming. We as fans need to be prepared that, while BM/CP will manage it well, we're going to lose a really nice player we don't want to lose. Would be fun to think about who we would protect if we assume the Seattle expansion rules?

And by fun, you mean heartbreaking?

 

[Calicaps]

I think once Ekblad signs 7x10m+ we’ll feel better

and full NMC

 

[um]

Both topdown and viz say Chychrun is having a garbage season, way worse than he was last yea, I don’t see how it’s possible for numbers to say he’s having a worst season than last year. Even the heat map has Chychrun generating a ton of offense.

Fancy stats continue to suck.

Nothing new here.

 

[wickedwitch]

Fancy stats continue to suck.

Nothing new here.

Fancy stats, like all stats, need context. When you remove the context, you remove much of the information in the stats.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Well, this is wild.

We sign a guy we *mostly ALL* wanted resigned, and yet!!!…..we are already thinking about how to get out of the contract *if* need be .

Good Lord people. Enjoy the moment. Don’t expect doom at the next corner.

I LOVE how the franchise is embracing THIS team, working to keep it together, and giving us all a looooooooong leash as fans to have a wonderful team to watch and root for!

I shake my head here, sometimes

 

[Silky mitts]

Fancy stats, like all stats, need context. When you remove the context, you remove much of the information in the stats.

2 things that show up the heat map, eye test, and line tools: Strome, with whom he’s played 1/3 of his minutes 5 on 5, drags him down, and he pulls TVR up, with whom he’s played half his minutes

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

 

[JayBeagleFanAccount]

Fancy stats continue to suck.

Nothing new here.

guy who hates "fancy stats" but swears by the eye test

 

[wickedwitch]

2 things that show up the heat map, eye test, and line tools: Strome, with whom he’s played 1/3 of his minutes 5 on 5, drags him down, and he pulls TVR up, with whom he’s played half his minutes

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

You're blaming Strome, when you could just as easily blame Ovechkin for "dragging him down." (The Chychrun+Ovechkin xGF% numbers are ghastly.) But this just emphasizes how stats like these need context.

 

[um]

guy who hates "fancy stats" but swears by the eye test

Aren’t you one of the tank guys?

 

[Silky mitts]

You're blaming Strome, when you could just as easily blame Ovechkin for "dragging him down." (The Chychrun+Ovechkin xGF% numbers are ghastly.) But this just emphasizes how stats like these need context.

Ovy/Chychrun GF% is 64%, Strome/Chychrun is 50%

 

[wickedwitch]

Ovy/Chychrun GF% is 64%, Strome/Chychrun is 50%

xGF% is different than GF%.

 

[Silky mitts]

xGF% is different than GF%.

Do you seriously think I don't know that?

Whatever the microstats say, Strome is bringing down Chychrun's on ice results as the forward he is most frequently paired with as scoring is even during that 1/3 of his ice time and in every other situation with Chychrun on the ice the Caps are dramatically outscoring their opponent, including with Ovy, with or without Strome.

 

[trick9]

Chychrun has his flaws and some of the analytics show that for sure. He's not #1D because of those flaws, IMO. Atleast not yet.

That said. Goals and generally a threat from the blue-line is expensive. Last season Caps were one of the worst teams among goals by D's. This season they are one of the best. Guess why?

They needed that threat and production from the blue-line, more so now that Carlson is closer and closer to retirement and propably needs to tone down his minutes as years go by. Our D is brilliantly built and has just about everything you'd want but take away Chychrun and the goal threat is gone. There aren't cheap fixes on that regard, unless you aren't banking fully on potential.

Could have always let him walk and gone after the next best D in the market in that regard. Here is the list, and their goal totals:

Jakob Chychrun - 18 goals (missed 5 games)

Neal Pionk - 9 goals - 5.875m AAV this season (missed 6 games)
Ivan Provorov - 7 goals - 6.750m AAV this season
Nate Schmidt - 5 goals - 0.800m AAV this season
Alec Martinez - 5 goals - 4.000m AAV this season (missed 29 games)
Dmitry Orlov - 5 goals - 7.750m AAV this season (missed 5 games)
Dante Fabbro - 5 goals - 2.500m AAV this season (healthy-scratch for a while)
Brent Burns - 5 goals - 8.000m AAV this season

Schmidt turns 34 this summer. Martinez turns 38 this summer. Orlov turns 34 this summer. Burns already over 40. Fabbro is younger but in the last 3 years he has 2, 3 and 2 goals.

I think we are going to be happy with this contract when we see the kind of contracts some of those guys are going to get in the summer. Pionk and Provorov are going to get paid, likely atleast around 6m per. In terms of value, Schmidt would propably have been the best option but he has about 30% of Chychrun's goals. In terms of goal threat that'd be like replacing Ovechkin with a Taylor Raddysh.