The Jagr/Mario overlap

[VanIslander]

Gretzky & Lemieux were gods and Jagr the demi-god.

This was the word in sports bars in the mid-1990s (my grad school uni days).

Then Hasek wtf'd up us all.

Everyone else was chopped liver: worthy of a meal, but doesn't last long in the open air.

 

[WarriorofTime]

It wasn’t so easy, lots of hooking, clutching and grabbing, defense first systems, big emphasis on size over skill, high percentage of goals scored off powerplay. Generational superstar types will come and go but only influence the overall league so much no matter the extent they dominate the zeitgeist. You can generally expect the overall talent levels in the league to steadily rise over time outside of rapid expansion. Yet it may not always be the type of “talent” that is viewed as personally appealing to audiences.

 

[MadLuke]

Also, very few young players were competing for top scoring finishes during 96-97 to 02-03 compared to the previous years or the following years. This shows the weakness of the talent entering the league in those years.

From 92-93 through 95-96, top 10 scorers - 17 of the 40 spots (43%) went to players under 25. (Turgeon, Selanne, Mogilny, Recchi, Fedorov, Roenick, Bure, Shanahan, Jagr, Lindros, Zhamnov, Renberg, Forsberg, Kariya).

I think it is a mix, soviet collapse and so on causing some drop, but also the aging generation being possibly the best generation of players.

In 2000 the 35-40 years old were particularly strong but:

Oates-Francis-Yzerman-Reechi-Messier-Bourque-Roy-Hasek-Lemieux-Hull and co, were particularly good.

What is the argument that it got "worse" in the late '90s to the early '00s?

It would be a lot around how well old Sakic-Sundin-etc.... look versus their young version.

Mark Reechi, finished third in the scoring race in 2000:

1.	Jaromír Jágr • PIT	96
2.	Pavel Bure* • FLA	94
3.	Mark Recchi* • PHI	91
4.	Paul Kariya* • MDA	86
5.	Teemu Selänne* • MDA	85

Was he better having a better season than in 92-93 ?

.	Mario Lemieux* • PIT	160
2.	Pat LaFontaine* • BUF	148
3.	Adam Oates* • BOS	142
4.	Steve Yzerman* • DET	137
5.	Teemu Selänne* • WIN	132
	Pierre Turgeon* • NYI	132
7.	Doug Gilmour* • TOR	127
	Alexander Mogilny • BUF	127
9.	Luc Robitaille* • LAK	125
10.	Mark Recchi* • PHI	123

when he finished 10 ? Maybe Leclair-55 Lindros game, but maybe everyone above him in 93 finished above him in 2000.

It was a lot of top player missing game or slowed down by injury, not just less talent (if it was), Forsberg-Sakic-Lindros-Kariya-Selanne could have been ahead, obviously Mario if he play).

Was 1993 Sundin playing with the high octane nordiques offense significantly less a scorer than late 90s-00s Sundin or just playing against an higher field ? What peak Roenick look like if he does it from 01-04 instead of 91-94 when he was just one of many (91-94, Gretzky-Oates-Recchi-Hull-Yzerman had more points, Hull-Robitaille had more goals, who would have in 01-04 ?) .

 

[daver]

It would be a lot around how well old Sakic-Sundin-etc.... look versus their young version.

Mark Reechi, finished third in the scoring race in 2000:

1.	Jaromír Jágr • PIT	96
2.	Pavel Bure* • FLA	94
3.	Mark Recchi* • PHI	91
4.	Paul Kariya* • MDA	86
5.	Teemu Selänne* • MDA	85

Was he better having a better season than in 92-93 ?

.	Mario Lemieux* • PIT	160
2.	Pat LaFontaine* • BUF	148
3.	Adam Oates* • BOS	142
4.	Steve Yzerman* • DET	137
5.	Teemu Selänne* • WIN	132
	Pierre Turgeon* • NYI	132
7.	Doug Gilmour* • TOR	127
	Alexander Mogilny • BUF	127
9.	Luc Robitaille* • LAK	125
10.	Mark Recchi* • PHI	123

when he finished 10 ? Maybe Leclair-55 Lindros game, but maybe everyone above him in 93 finished above him in 2000.

It was a lot of top player missing game or slowed down by injury, not just less talent (if it was), Forsberg-Sakic-Lindros-Kariya-Selanne could have been ahead, obviously Mario if he play).

Was 1993 Sundin playing with the high octane nordiques offense significantly less a scorer than late 90s-00s Sundin or just playing against an higher field ? What peak Roenick look like if he does it from 01-04 instead of 91-94 when he was just one of many (91-94, Gretzky-Oates-Recchi-Hull-Yzerman had more points, Hull-Robitaille had more goals, who would have in 01-04 ?) .

You, and the other poster, are throwing out, one or two names/stats, to draw a conclusion. I threw out 130 pieces of stats e.g. the Top Ten scorers each season over a 13 year period that debunks narrative that older stars were dominating younger stars during the DPE.

As for Recchi, he was 31 years old and had the 6th best PPG in 00/01. He could have easily been out of the Top Ten that year because there a lot of parity. To paint him as the 3rd best scorer that year is pretty misleading.

A 30 year Claude Giroux was 2nd in 17/18 against prime MacKinnon, Kucherov/Draisaitl.

Lower tier players jumping up in any year, even after what you guess is their prime, is not a huge indicator of anything.

 

[daver]

Yes, Jagr's dominance in scoring was in part because his competition was cut down by injuries. Credit to him for being durable, but his scoring dominance would have been very different if Mario, Forsberg, Sakic, Kariya, Lindros, Palffy, Selanne, and Bure were playing full seasons and unaffected by major injuries.

There very well may have been an usually high amount of injuries during the DPE to the elite scorers. It certainly seems like players from the O6 played more full seasons and perhaps this was the case even well into the '80s. A star player having a relatively injury-free career (Crosby/Malkin/Kane/Matthews/MacKinnon/Kucherov) seems less likely in the past 30/40 years.

But that is another issue besides a fundamental shift in the league where the era's best scorer should be downgraded due to playing in a "weaker" era.

In determining the strength of an individual scoring season, I suggest giving weight to PPG almost as much as raw point totals. E.g. noone views Mario's 92/93 as being "only" 12 points ahead of Lafontaine. This should level things out when discussing the league's best players over a season or multiple seasons.

Did we not see enough from all those players listed to conclude that Jagr's best was better than everyone else's? I am sure some want to argue that we did not see the "best" from Lindros or Forsberg but that goes way to far down the "what if" rabbit hole.

IMO, Jagr was even with Lindros offensively through the 96/97 season then took it up a notch in 98/99 and 99/00. And that is saying nothing about Lindros' fundamental flaws.

From 94/95 to 00/01, Jagr played 20/30 more games than Sakic/Forsberg and had a 20% difference in PPG. He was a little bit less dominant per game in the playoffs.

At the end of the day, Jagr's massive points lead during his peak is backed up with clear PPG dominance.

 

[daver]

Also, very few young players were competing for top scoring finishes during 96-97 to 02-03 compared to the previous years or the following years. This shows the weakness of the talent entering the league in those years.

From 92-93 through 95-96, top 10 scorers - 17 of the 40 spots (43%) went to players under 25. (Turgeon, Selanne, Mogilny, Recchi, Fedorov, Roenick, Bure, Shanahan, Jagr, Lindros, Zhamnov, Renberg, Forsberg, Kariya).

From 96-97 through 02-03, top 10 scorers - 11 of the 70 spots (16%) went to players under 25. (Jagr, Kariya, Palffy, Forsberg, Allison, Demitra, Elias, Iginla, Thornton, Heatley).

99-00 through 02-03 was particularly lacking in young scorers, with only 4 of 40 top 10 spots (10%) claimed by players under 25. (Elias, Iginla, Thornton, Heatley).

And then from 03-04 to 09-10, 24 of 60 top 10 scoring spots (40%) went to players under 25. (Kovalchuk, Hossa, Tanguay, Ovechkin, Heatley, Crosby, Staal, Malkin, Spezza, Parise, Getzlaf, Backstrom, Stamkos, Kane).

It's pretty clear that the weak draft classes of the mid to late 90s caused the late 90s/early 00s to have weaker competition for top scorers. Especially the early 00s.

OK, but the drop in U25 players did not significantly affect the avg. age of the Top Ten during the DPE.

92/93 saw a huge increase in foreign born players, notably Russians. This needs to be considered.

Here are the # of Non-North American players (NNA), the #of U25s, and the # of U25s from outside NA (N25), in the Top Ten starting in 88/89:

88/89 - 1 NNAs, 5 U25s, 0 NU25

89/90 - 0 NNAs, 5 U25s, 0 NU25

90/91 - 0 NNAs, 3 U25s, 0 NU25

91/92 - 0 NNAs, 2 U25s, 0 NU25

Clearly the league is dominated by Canadians and some US players. Prior '88/89, there were, on average, 4 U25s per season and the avg. age among the Top 25 was younger.


92/93 - 2 NNAs, 4 U25s, 2 NU25

93/94 - 3 NNAs, 4 U25s, 3 NU25

94/95 - 3 NNAs, 4 U25s, 3 NU25

A clear influx of young talent from outside NA has arrived. It is the best prospects but arriving a couple of years after their draft and stepping into the Top 10 early in their career


95/96 - 4 NNAs, 4 U25s, 2 NU25

96/97 - 5 NNAs, 4 U25s, 3 NU25

97/98 - 6 NNAs, 2 U25s, 1 NU25

98/99 - 6 NNAs, 2 U25s, 1 NU25

This young talent is now over 25 and among the elite scorers.

90/00 - 3 NNAs, 3 U25s, 0 NU25

00/01 - 7 NNAs, 1 U25s, 1 NU25

01/02 - 5 NNAs, 1 U25s, 0 NU25

02/03 - 5 NNAs, 2 U25s, 0 NU25

03/04 - 5 NNAs, 3 U25s, 1 NU25

Still a healthy pattern of NNAs among the Top 10 but a clear drop in U25 talent. The U25 talent from NA was steady.

05/06 - 5 NNAs, 4 U25s, 2 NU25

06/07 - 2 NNAs, 1 U25s, 0 NU25

07/08 - 6 NNAs, 4 U25s, 3 NU25

08/09 - 5 NNAs, 4 U25s, 3 NU25

09/10 - 4 NNAs, 5 U25s, 2 NU25

Still a healthy pattern of NNAs among the Top 10. An increase in NU25 talent can be attributed to Ovechkin/Malkin. The U25 talent from NA was steady.

COMMENT:

It would appear that there was the intense influx of young NHL-ready, Non-NA talent affected the league from 92/93 to 03/04 in terms of young NA talent being among the Top Ten and then, during the DPE, for all young talent being among the Top Ten as that elite Non-NA talent was in their prime.

This is why the avg. age of the Top Ten doesn't take a significant jump during the DPE as it is not older NA stars still competing but rather the wave of Non-NA talent in their primes (age 25 to age 30) competing for the Art Ross.

So while there wasn't a superstar talent entering the league during the DPE, there was a lot of talent at the tier below i.e. consistent Top 3/5/10 Art Ross/Rocket finishers. I.e. the talent level of the "pack" did not diminish. It is more reasonable to argue that it got better as the elite Non-NA talent were hitting the Top Ten more.