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Game Analysis: The Great New Year's Analytics Card Dump

Lindgren has decent mobility for offense.... His decision making/IQ is as bad as it gets though. He somehow makes the worst possible play in any given outcome. It's actually impressive.
 
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Machinehead said:
One of the flaws of xG is that they boil everything down to single shot attempt.

Funny thing about xG is that they work the same way in soccer. Which is, you have a shot attempt, and that shot attempt is assigned a percentage likelihood of entering the net. A shot estimated to go in 25% of the time is 0.25 xG. 0.25 is a great chance BTW. The whole "no chance" thing is kind of overblown, especially with hockey goalies and their big pads and smaller nets.

I love using soccer to analyze xG because it's slower and the net is so much bigger. You really get to dig deep on analyzing a chance and the xG assigned to it.

Yesterday, Liverpool set a new Premier League record with 7.53 xG in a single game (not a typo). Were Liverpool phenomenal in that game? Yes. Is that number still likely skewed? Perhaps, and let me show you my evidence.

View attachment 794339

This is their second goal. 17 has the ball and the goalie dove out of position trying to stop the pass. Every defender is behind him. When this singular shot attempt leaves his foot, it's worth 0.999 xG. That makes sense. If you simulated this single shot attempt 1000 times, he scores 999 times.

Here's the thing, though: this is a particular set of circumstances that led to this one shot that literally any of us could have scored. Does it make the several passes and all the build-up to this moment more effective than Liverpool usually are on the break, or versus when they get, say, a 0.63 xG shot? Probably not.

What if the goalkeeper got a piece of the pass? Now there's no shot attempt and it's worth 0.0 xG. But it's the same rush and the same passes that led to the rush.

I think this may be a thing with Kakko. He gets chances in the slot and so do his teammates. For a single shot attempt in a single location, it rates well. However, Kakko isn't great at shooting. I think even more than that, Kakko isn't good at build-up. @duhmetreE says he's ass on the rush and he's touching on it. When Kakko gets that look in the slot, the defenders and goalies are in different positions than when Zibanejad gets the same look, in terms of distance, royal road, and all the other factors. Zibanejad is a guy who consistently outscores his expected.

Long story short, xG accounts for the likelihood of a single shot attempt going in but it doesn't account for the events that led to a shot attempt. Kakko forcing his way to the slot across the royal road with half-control is not the same as Zibanejad getting to the same spot clean as a whistle with an option to shoot or pass.
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For whatever reason we've played a stagnant perimeter game that leads to one shot attempt. ( whether it was an actually decent scoring chance or a muffin from a defender. ) We typically do not rotate or cause space with cohesive player movements. We'd rarely get to the slot or find/create openings for the puck in high danger areas. We were/are to easy to defend/maintain.

I think it plagues a lot of guys on the team as well. I do not know if it was a mindset instilled from past coaching but it's still prevalent.

Luckily, Panarin ( and Laffy ) are the antithesis to that this season and its visible. It's as easy as 'waiting for something to happen' as opposed to 'making something happen'. When we see players at their best, they are attacking the puck o attacking open space. Standing still/floating and puck watching is not how you have success.
 
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duhmetreE said:
For whatever reason we've played a stagnant perimeter game that leads to one shot attempt. ( whether it was an actually decent scoring chance or a muffin from a defender. ) We typically do not rotate or cause space with cohesive player movements. We'd rarely get to the slot or find/create openings for the puck in high danger areas. We were/are to easy to defend/maintain.

I think it plagues a lot of guys on the team as well. I do not know if it was a mindset instilled from past coaching but it's still prevalent.

Luckily, Panarin ( and Laffy ) are the antithesis to that this season and its visible. It's as easy as 'waiting for something to happen' as opposed to 'making something happen'. When we see players at their best, they are attacking the puck o attacking open space. Standing still/floating and puck watching is not how you have success.
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We don't really play that way anymore. The Panarin line is one of the best at incising to scoring positions. Every goal Kredier scores is from a high-danger area. Say what you will about Zibanejad, but he's not scoring at the rate he does shooting from 60 feet away.

Under Gallant, yes, but the whole team sucked at offense under Gallant. Now, we're up to 13th in xGF/60 after a brutal start where we still looked like a Gallant team.

Kakko still plays that way. He plays like he's waiting for everyone else to just disappear and he gets a breakaway. I can understand why he plays like that considering he loses the puck if you look at him funny. That's his biggest problem.
 
Machinehead said:
We don't really play that way anymore. The Panarin line is one of the best at incising to scoring positions. Every goal Kredier scores is from a high-danger area. Say what you will about Zibanejad, but he's not scoring at the rate he does shooting from 60 feet away.

Under Gallant, yes, but the whole team sucked at offense under Gallant. Now, we're up to 13th in xGF/60 after a brutal start where we still looked like a Gallant team.

Kakko still plays that way. He plays like he's waiting for everyone else to just disappear and he gets a breakaway. I can understand why he plays like that considering he loses the puck if you look at him funny. That's his biggest problem
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I'm not sure this is true. I would say that one of his biggest strengths is controlling the puck and pulling defenders to him so that he can dish it off. He did it countless times last year with Chytil and Lafreniere. The reason he is looking around is because that's his strategy. Hold the puck, make defenders come to him and dish it.
 
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One of the tribulations that you go through with a new coach is that some players will adjust to the style and get better, others will get worse, and you'll end up with some answers to questions you've had about the middle of your lineup.

Your elite end players should have no issue transitioning to a new style. Your bottom end players will likely continue to be that or completely fall off, but it's forwards 5-10 and your 3-8 defenders will be where you can get a bunch of answers.

Clearly Vesey is no longer just a one year wonder. He's going to earn himself a nice deal in a couple seasons. The results with Wheeler have been better, but that line is on a PDO bender. You can see how Laviolette takes Wheeler off that line late and close.

You have somewhat of a foundation on what can work when we get to the 2nd season, but there are a couple moves to make up front in house:
  • Reunite Kreider-Zibanejad-Vesey: Your swiss army knife forward should be used as such. These two aren't being separated, but when the postseason comes, you need someone willing to do the dirty work with them and help out on the defensive end.
  • Find a way to have Trocheck as the 3C: With the Chytil news not being great (not bad either), somehow getting Trocheck as the 3C would elevate this team. Now, the Panarin-Troch-Laffy line is working better, so maybe it's just taken time, but getting a C upgrade would be nice.
  • Give Cuylle the current role of Vesey: The line will not be the same, but the drop off may not be that bad, but having Cuylle-Goodrow-Brodz would be a good 4th line.
  • Only one of Pitlick/Bonino in the lineup: You already have Goodrow, you don't need two more of him. That was the plan at first I'm sure, but injuries have derailed that. A healthy Kakko and Chytil might bump them both out. I see the argument for either with both being very good on the PK, but you only need one of them.
As for the backend, it's becoming more apparent that the end of games trailing it comes to Miller-Fox and Gus-Schneider and it may need to go that way in general. Lindgren needs to be sold high or as high as he can be. Let Jones get a crack at the 3LD and then if not make a deal for a rental.

(One of the X's is Chytil if healthy)
Panarin-X-Lafreniere
Kreider-Zibanejad-Vesey
X-Trocheck-Kakko
Cuylle-Goodrow-Brodz
 
NYR Viper said:
I'm not sure this is true. I would say that one of his biggest strengths is controlling the puck and pulling defenders to him so that he can dish it off. He did it countless times last year with Chytil and Lafreniere. The reason he is looking around is because that's his strategy. Hold the puck, make defenders come to him and dish it.
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He does do it and he tries to do it, but I think there's a tendency to remember the 1/10 times he's Jaromir Jagr and forget the 9/10 times he's Pavel Brendl.
 
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Machinehead said:
He does do it and he tries to do it, but I think there's a tendency to remember the 1/10 times he's Jaromir Jagr and forget the 9/10 times he's Pavel Brendl.
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I agree that there are times it doesn't fit but last year, it clearly clocked for him and Chytil and at times in the pre-season he was the best player on the ice. If his linemates can get to open areas I think he can find them. Chytil and he work well together
 
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NYR Viper said:
I'm not sure this is true. I would say that one of his biggest strengths is controlling the puck and pulling defenders to him so that he can dish it off. He did it countless times last year with Chytil and Lafreniere. The reason he is looking around is because that's his strategy. Hold the puck, make defenders come to him and dish it.
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He doesn't do it at a high level, which seems obvious based on his production. If you look at the all three zones project which tracks microstats such as passes that lead to scoring chances Kakko has been below average. That lines up with what I see during games. He's not able to get the puck, either by himself or by passing the puck into high danger areas on the ice.
 
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That Trouba card does not really meet the eye test this year for me. Over the years, I've certainly been down on his play, but I thought he was playing pretty good hockey out of the gate this year. The only other card that just doesn't track at all for me compared to eye test is Lafreniere. I think he's been good, and not because of some dramatic overcompensation because our 1OA is showing signs of life, I just see the talent and skills there mostly every game now rather than once every 10-15 games. He's doing things.
 
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I wouldn't mind a defense pairing shuffle. Miller-Schneider the other day looked really good. Small sample size and all that, but I want to see it again. If the thought process is also to move Lindgren down, that would leave Gus-Fox and Lindgren-Trouba. Lindgren-Trouba sounds awkward and could be a nightmare pushing the puck up ice, but sometimes things you don't expect to be good turn out good. An argument could be made that Lindgren would stabilize Trouba defensively, and potentially allow Trouba to play a bit more aggressive. We haven't really seen Trouba in a position to play that kind of role. The role we have only really seen him in is the "stay home" role since he became a Ranger, and his partners have been offensive minded. First Skjei, then Miller. Maybe think outside of the box for a minute with respect to Trouba and see what happens. I don't know how you divvy up the minutes with these pairings, by the way, but I'd be more focused on finding the best pairings for the team and figuring that part out after.
 
duhmetreE said:
Lindgren has decent mobility for offense.... His decision making/IQ is as bad as it gets though. He somehow makes the worst possible play in any given outcome. It's actually impressive.
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I swear there was a play last game where he skated down towards the goal line with the puck, literally watched the winger on that side skate to a different area of the ice to cover for him (in my head the winger went back to the top of the circles but not to the left point corner) but then Lindgren threw a pass back to the point position he'd just vacated

It's like what...dude that's you're spot, and the guy covering for you both didn't have time to get there and wasn't headed to that spot anyways, what in the world are you doing.

NYR Viper said:
I'm not sure this is true. I would say that one of his biggest strengths is controlling the puck and pulling defenders to him so that he can dish it off. He did it countless times last year with Chytil and Lafreniere. The reason he is looking around is because that's his strategy. Hold the puck, make defenders come to him and dish it.
Click to expand...

I don't think that's a winning strategy for him at the NHL level though. It does work sometimes, and to be honest he got poor shooting luck from his linemates at the start of this year when it seemed like he was able to set up some good chances, but holding the puck and drawing players to you is a pretty passive way to play and he's not generating much with it, and when he does force his way to the slot he double clutches and tries at least one or two more moves instead of shooting.

I think he needs to simplify his game, shoot more, and stop falling back onto that "people say I'm good at controlling the puck along the boards so I'll just do that" since you're not scoring from that location all that often. Make a play with the puck, look up, then move it, then keep going and get into position to score. Attack the net at times with quick shots, etc. Attacking the net is the way he gets back on track if he ever does.

JimmyG89 said:
  • Find a way to have Trocheck as the 3C: With the Chytil news not being great (not bad either), somehow getting Trocheck as the 3C would elevate this team. Now, the Panarin-Troch-Laffy line is working better, so maybe it's just taken time, but getting a C upgrade would be nice.
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I mean Trocheck is on pace for 80 points so I'm not really fussed about debating whether he's a "true" 2C or should be 3C. Bottom line is they need an upgrade over Bonino. Where things shakeout after that is another question but Bonino being the 3C is a far far far far far (x100) bigger problem than Trocheck at 2C
 
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bbny said:
That Trouba card does not really meet the eye test this year for me. Over the years, I've certainly been down on his play, but I thought he was playing pretty good hockey out of the gate this year. The only other card that just doesn't track at all for me compared to eye test is Lafreniere. I think he's been good, and not because of some dramatic overcompensation because our 1OA is showing signs of life, I just see the talent and skills there mostly every game now rather than once every 10-15 games. He's doing things.
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We can disagree, but as somebody who generally goes with the analytics, this is my explanation on Trouba: he actually is very good at recovering when there's a problem, but he almost always caused it to begin with.

The other thing is that there's a lot of goals or scoring chances against that Miller takes heat for, where Trouba isn't even on the screen because he ran into the O-zone to hit somebody that didn't have the puck anymore.

Both of those happened in the Florida game.
 
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Stop me if I missed it but curious what the Brodzinski card looks like? Or too small sample size?
 
TopShelfSnipes said:
Stop me if I missed it but curious what the Brodzinski card looks like? Or too small sample size?
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Too small to rank but he has bars.

download (57).png


The bars are pretty much replacement level. He's the epitome of "exists."

It depends on how you look at it. It's super underwhelming but "exist" is better than what 90% of 4th liners do.
 
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Machinehead said:
Not really tho. The Cuylle-Bonino-Brodzinski line has been playing the least at 5v5 for awhile now.

If you go by 5v5 ice time trends, 10-16-13 are the top line with a bullet, 20-93-17 & 71-21-26 are (believe it or not) just about even, and 50-12-22 are by far bringing up the rear.
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Getting Kakko back should allow for that '3rd' line to at the very least pull up a bit higher in 5v5 time
 
NYR Viper said:
Getting Kakko back should allow for that '3rd' line to at the very least pull up a bit higher in 5v5 time
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We could possibly do that. The thing about it is, 71-21-26 are actually really f***ing good.

Well, 26 is anyway. The other two are just staying out of his way.
 
Machinehead said:
We could possibly do that. The thing about it is, 71-21-26 are actually really f***ing good.

Well, 26 is anyway. The other two are just staying out of his way.
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I don't think I want to limit their ice to less, but just more evenly distribute some minutes. I am also adamant that I want to see Kakko killing penalties
 
Fantastic and thanks for posting them all Machine.

My two cents - I never take these cards as the end all be all but they do hold some weight when "baselining" player tendencies.

A few notes:

Kakko's card is frustratingly accurate. Is there any other player like this? So odd and the eye test is even more puzzling. Finishing is all he should work on. He should room with Vesey, maybe some of his all-around prowess will rub off.

Speaking of which its hilarious but not a surprise that the most all around solid player is Jimmy Vesey and his 800K contract. He should be given a shot in Wheeler's spot, if not Cuylle or Laf (but I wouldn't dare break up that line now). When Lavy sat him the first game I chuckled. He just didnt know the player because before the season I said he will play his system better than anyone up front.

Mika's D isnt anything to write home about but need to remember he's matching up against very teams best. Would like to see how he compares to other top centers in that regard

Wheeler is cooked. I actually think hes had 4 good games all season. The last 5-7 or so I havent liked at all, despite the points. They need to address this if they havent begun to already.

Gust has been an incredible pickup and they need to find a way to retain his services.

When I hear talk about moving a 22 y/o RH D that has over 150 Games and almost 30 Postseason I want to lose it. Hes got a lot of room to grow. Defense is the most difficult position in the game and hes got the tools to become a solid second pairing guy with enough offense to back it up, shown here on his card

Goodrow's play has declined... er.. dropped off a cliff. He was never great to begin with and his past numbers were elevated by the teammates he played with - as you pointed out. He and Bonino on the PK however - will block howitzers with their faces. There is value in that in the standings column and when things really count - if they are left standing by then.
 
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The cards aren't the be-all, end-all, but they can send up flashing red lights about a player struggling that some on here want to simply dismiss like it's meaningless.
 
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