Game Analysis: The Great New Year's Analytics Card Dump

[DanielBrassard]

the most surprising one to me is Lafreniere. to me he looks like our most dangerous forward at 5-on-5 on a consistent basis. it feels like he is constantly driving scoring chances, even moreso than Panarin (at 5v5). i was expecting Laf's xGAR to be way higher than his actual GAR but it's pretty close. the rest of them check out, maybe Miller's offense is a bit higher than I would've thought but he does have 7 goals in 33 games.

Nah, Laf looks like the most dangerous because Panarin has been setting him up with great looks all season long. improved but he’s still more of a passenger than he is driving the play. Which is fine but he needs to start finishing his chances more if that’s gonna be his play style.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Evolving Hockey has released their GAR/WAR based player cards for the first "half" (sort of? almost half?) of 2023-24 and I've done the good deed of compiling them for all of you.

By no means is this the be-all-end-all but I think it's interesting to look at. I'm going to post each one, and my thoughts, basically in lineup order:


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Yep, that's Chris Kreider. Moving on.

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Not surprised he's kind of mid because he started out horrible, but he's been heating up.

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Yeah, that sucks. Lower than I expected although some people won't be surprised.

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Yeah, that tracks. Next.

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Yep. About right.

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NOW HOLD ON! Before you yell, I think Lafreniere has been good this year. I've ranted and raved about how I hate the line he's on. I hate the line because the line SUCKS defensively. That tracks. EH blames Lafreniere on the line sucking defensively. I don't necessarily agree with that, but it matches my apprehension about the line. Please put him on a different one.

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I mean, yeah. If this seems low, it's not. Cuylle is better than about 35-40% of the league. I don't think that's a hot take. He's a third liner. He's a solid third liner with potential to be more.

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This is probably the least surprising card on the roster. Bonino is legit elite at penalty killing and black death at everything else. Yeah. Nobody's surprised.

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Kakko having a normal one. Solid at everything except for the small detail that his team would rather do anything besides score when he's on the ice. Turning into a really weird player. Another accurate card.

(Brodzinski doesn't have enough minutes to make a card yet).

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Here's Tyler Pitlick. He exists.

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Another elite penalty killer that should play 2 seconds a game at even strength. @McRanger92 was right that these guys are legitimately great at it tho.

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This is why I wanna move him up. Without exaggeration one of the best even strength players in the league.

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Even in a down year, Fox is well into a Norris-range percentile. Just a comically good hockey player. He is having a down year offensively. That might be because.......

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Yeah, that's why. Lindgren might literally be the worst offensive player in the National Hockey League through 30-whatever games. Fun.

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79 is an elite offensive defenseman now. His defense rating sucks. Do you wanna know why? I know why. I've seen them all already. This is why:

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*Curb Your Enthusiasm theme*

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Fun fact: Erik Gustafsson is listed as "Erik Gustafsson (D)" on EH because another Erik Gustafsson, who I didn't know existed, apparently plays forward. Another fun fact: he's f***ing excellent.

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I'm actually really excited about this. His defense could still use some work but him looking like he's good at offense now is not a mirage. 65th percentile is better than almost every #6 defenseman. Schneider is one of the best players in the NHL playing his current roe. Isn't that wild? Good for him.

MILLER-FOX NOW

Free both my mans

 

[DanielBrassard]

He has schmoints in 4 of his last 5 games. He's too good of a player to not turn things around. People are so quick to be done with guys it's frightening.

Who cares about points

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Nah, Laf looks like the most dangerous because Panarin has been setting him up with great looks all season long. improved but he’s still more of a passenger than he is driving the play. Which is fine but he needs to start finishing his chances more if that’s gonna be his play style.

Nah, he's been way more noticeable outside of Panarin setting him up. Getting better at zone entries, possessing the puck in the offensive zone, finding the open man, etc.

He's improved by leaps and bounds. He just can't finish/ guys can't finish his setups.

 

[DanielBrassard]

Nah, he's been way more noticeable outside of Panarin setting him up. Getting better at zone entries, possessing the puck in the offensive zone, finding the open man, etc.

He's improved by leaps and bounds. He just can't finish/ guys can't finish his setups.

I said he’s improved, but he’s still been benefiting more from Panarin being all world at making plays. The data backs that up. Mostly I’m just responding to zlev saying he looks like hes been the most dangerous player on that line

 

[SML2]

I think they need a stat to track how often you concoct things in relation to miller in your head.

This hate boner is hilarious.

You're right. I've been carrying this grudge for too long. It's time to let things go.

How long before the next "I can't believe we took Dylan McIlrath" thread?

 

[Fitzy]

Lindgren having a down season does not ipso facto mean he is in decline.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Lindgren having a down season does not ipso facto mean he is in decline.

There are a ton of signs that would lend one to believe that he very well may be though.

 

[I Eat Crow]

Lindgren having a down season does not ipso facto mean he is in decline.

This may be, but would you agree that we've seen the best of him?

 

[Fitzy]

This may be, but would you agree that we've seen the best of him?

I don’t think he fits as well in Laviolette’s system. It’s one of the reasons I’m open to trading him and re signing Gustafsson.

If Sauer had stayed healthy he would have floundered under Vignealt

 

[zlev]

Nah, Laf looks like the most dangerous because Panarin has been setting him up with great looks all season long. improved but he’s still more of a passenger than he is driving the play. Which is fine but he needs to start finishing his chances more if that’s gonna be his play style.

yeah it could be more Panarin than I think, but Laf has his own fair share of setups to the other two as well.

 

[Savant]

So...

Pitlick first man out?
Defensive center for Cuylle and Kakko?
Possibly juggling to improve top six defense?

Saving buy-out for Trouba?
Lindgren trade/no new contract.
Better Defensive LHD for Schneider?

Need to figure out what it takes to re-sign Gustafsson too.

Missing anything else here?

 

[Machinehead]

Anyone else surprised by Mika's defensive rating?

His ES defense is fine. His overall rating is getting tanked because of penalty killing.

He sucks at penalty killing. Always has. That's another thing the Rangers convinced themselves is good because they've done it before.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

His ES defense is fine. His overall rating is getting tanked because of penalty killing.

He sucks at penalty killing. Always has. That's another thing the Rangers convinced themselves is good because they've done it before.

I'd rather a worse PK player who is a threat shorthanded.

 

[Bacon Artemi Bravo]

Crazy how some of these match the eye test or confirm suspicions about players. That said, Vesey's card has to be overstated. I absolutely love the guy and I think he's playing great but that would put him in the top 50ish forwards in the NHL? If there are 32 teams that means hed be a very legit #2 forward on a middle to lower team in the league - just feels a bit overstated. Hes a great utility player that should be playing in a top 6 role right now with injuries but he's also a guy who did not work out in a full time top 6 role time and time again in his career.

 

[ReddestRum]

Do they have a stat that shows how frequently Miller hot potatoes a pass or reverses to Trouba when he has no play either to avoid getting hit?

Is this satire because I'm really having a hard time trying to wrap my head around a gripe with reversals to your D partner so you don't get drilled for a turnover, turn it over with a blind wring up the boards, and/or trying to skate through 2 or more forecheckers coming at you.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Crazy how some of these match the eye test or confirm suspicions about players. That said, Vesey's card has to be overstated. I absolutely love the guy and I think he's playing great but that would put him in the top 50ish forwards in the NHL? If there are 32 teams that means hed be a very legit #2 forward on a middle to lower team in the league - just feels a bit overstated. Hes a great utility player that should be playing in a top 6 role right now with injuries but he's also a guy who did not work out in a full time top 6 role time and time again in his career.

Isn't it possible that in his current role he could be a top 50 player but put in a top 6 role he doesn't play like that?

 

[aufheben]

Vesey’s made me lol

 

[TheDirtyH]

Vesey too low

 

[Machinehead]

Crazy how some of these match the eye test or confirm suspicions about players. That said, Vesey's card has to be overstated. I absolutely love the guy and I think he's playing great but that would put him in the top 50ish forwards in the NHL? If there are 32 teams that means hed be a very legit #2 forward on a middle to lower team in the league - just feels a bit overstated. Hes a great utility player that should be playing in a top 6 role right now with injuries but he's also a guy who did not work out in a full time top 6 role time and time again in his career.

Maybe it is a bit overstated and maybe his production is a result of a timely sample.

That being said, he's on pace for almost 20 goals barely playing. Of course that's going to reflect. The defense is legit -- he was elite at defense last year.

He's probably not a top 50 forward but he's probably pretty comfortably a middle six forward and I still want to move him up.

 

[Machinehead]

And when I say that Vesey is one of the better even strength forwards in the league, you have to keep in mind that the entire top 20 percent of forwards play first unit powerplay time.

He's playing with two absolute plugs in Pitlick and Goodrow and the line is effective.

Vesey is impressive.

 

[Machinehead]

I've been critical of Miller but those 40 or so minutes with Trouba out were enough for me to absolutely believe these results.

Miller looked like a 6'5" Cale Makar the second Trouba left the ice.

 

[Kakko]

Want show some love for Braden Schneider, mainly because he's gotten way too much flak until this year.
He's certainly not gonna be Fox. He's most likely not gonna be Miller. But 124 games as a serviceable defenseman before turning 22 is not exactly common. And almost all of those games were played partnered with garbage players.

Also biased towards him, cause he's a good interview. Shows actual enthusiasm/personality, despite remaining grounded.

 

[turcotte8]

Vesey too low

Figuring out his numbers is like trying to accurately measure the size of the universe.

 

[ArPanet]

I'd like to see more of Miller and Schneider together.