Not too difficult to predict his fate. If this team flops because of the goaltending he's cooked. This team is good enough to do some damage if they can get some f***ing saves. If they don't and their out in round 1 again for the 7th straight playoffs then sayonara. I like Dubas as a person and think he's made a decent amount of good moves, but after a certain point you need to get a new voice with a new vision.
Another first round failure will be the 5th straight with Tavares on a 7 year deal which took up a huge chunk of cap space. Matthews and Nylander would each be one year away from UFA, so would Muzzin and Brodie who are key parts of the defence built by Dubas. Keefe who is Dubas' guy as coach will have failed for the fourth straight year to get out of round one, and he fired a guy who cost $50 million to sign and was only barely halfway through his contract to promote his buddy. Dubas has also burned through a not insignificant amount of first round picks trying to get this team over the hump, and has seen talent like Andersen, Hyman, Campbell, Van Riemsdyk, and Bozak walk for nothing and getting no assets in return.
There will be a lot of reasons to let him go if next season ends in the same pathetic first round exit again. Of course there's a world where Murray bounces back and is healthy or Samsonov shows why he was a first round pick in 2015, but the chances are pretty grim for both outcomes. Hell he might find another Campbell mid-season, a backup with untapped potential who could save them if the goaltending struggles again.
I hope it doesn't come to having to fire him. I really hope his bet pays off and the Leafs go on a run of some kind in the playoffs. Not because I desperately want Dubas to keep his job, but I want this f***ing team to win something for Goddamn once and having playoff success will likely be key for getting Matthews to re-sign before he would want to test free agency.