Salary Cap: The Endless Speculation Edition

[Gurglesons]

@Peat @Ryder71 I get your arguments, but did we not have the same situation with Bonino on the ice way to two cups?

 

[Peat]

@Peat @Ryder71 I get your arguments, but did we not have the same situation with Bonino on the ice way to two cups?

You lost me on the corner. McCann's like Bonino, right? In what way?

 

[Gurglesons]

You lost me on the corner. McCann's like Bonino, right? In what way?

Dependent on quality wingers to be a legitimate threat.

 

[JTG]

McCann is more talented than Bonino.

 

[Peat]

Dependent on quality wingers to be a legitimate threat.

Oh right, with you.

My recollection of the situation is different, although it may be flawed. I thought Bonino was more dependent on usage and his own mindset - I thought he played like a legit 2C when he was up for it and Geno was out. Maybe his wings were part of that? I never recall watching a good Bonino line and thinking he wasn't a big part of it though.

Not that it probably matters. Its working and I don't see why it'd stop all of a sudden other than general hockey luck.

 

[Gurglesons]

McCann is more talented than Bonino.

Uh. No.

 

[ownal]

Why did JR not pay Bonino after the cups?

 

[HandshakeLine]

Who cares? It's been 3 years now.

 

[Harvey Birdman]

Why did JR not pay Bonino after the cups?

I remember reading something back then that it was less about the salary and more about the term Bonino wanted that JR let him walk.

 

[JackFr]

I think we have a lot of flexibility somehow thanks to some real stepping up by cheap guys.

Guentzel (6) - Crosby (8.7) - Kahun (2)
Hall/Hoffman/Kreider - Malkin (9.5) - Rust (3.5)
Simon (1.5) - McCann (3) - Hornqvist (5.3)
Aston-Reese (1) - Blueger (0.75) - Tanev (3.5)
Lafferty (0.7)

Pettersson (3) - Letang (7.25)
Dumoulin (4.1) - Marino (0.9)
Muzzin/TVR/POJ - Riikola (0.8)

Murray (5)
Jarry (1.25)

That's about 68 million on that roster (assuming we can shed Bjugstad and Johnson) or 71.5 if we can't. That leaves us ~12-15 million to spend on upgrades. That could be Hall (10) + a 3rd pairing depth guy like TVR. It could be Hoffman (6) + Jake Muzzin (6). Or we could make a big trade.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Please no Muzzin.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Uh. No.

Yes and no. He has clear first-round pedigree in skating, hands, and shot. However I don't think his vision on the ice is...well, very good. Certainly Bonino's was better. I still don't think he's a center and I wish we'd let him blossom into a top-6 legit LW instead of switching him back and forth. Make Teddy the 3C for now.

 

[Peat]

I think we have a lot of flexibility somehow thanks to some real stepping up by cheap guys.

Guentzel (6) - Crosby (8.7) - Kahun (2)
Hall/Hoffman/Kreider - Malkin (9.5) - Rust (3.5)
Simon (1.5) - McCann (3) - Hornqvist (5.3)
Aston-Reese (1) - Blueger (0.75) - Tanev (3.5)
Lafferty (0.7)

Pettersson (3) - Letang (7.25)
Dumoulin (4.1) - Marino (0.9)
Muzzin/TVR/POJ - Riikola (0.8)

Murray (5)
Jarry (1.25)

That's about 68 million on that roster (assuming we can shed Bjugstad and Johnson) or 71.5 if we can't. That leaves us ~12-15 million to spend on upgrades. That could be Hall (10) + a 3rd pairing depth guy like TVR. It could be Hoffman (6) + Jake Muzzin (6). Or we could make a big trade.

I think you're a million light on your estimates for Kahun, McCann, Simon and Pettersson - and at least two million light on Murray.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I think we have a lot of flexibility somehow thanks to some real stepping up by cheap guys.

Guentzel (6) - Crosby (8.7) - Kahun (2)
Hall/Hoffman/Kreider - Malkin (9.5) - Rust (3.5)
Simon (1.5) - McCann (3) - Hornqvist (5.3)
Aston-Reese (1) - Blueger (0.75) - Tanev (3.5)
Lafferty (0.7)

Pettersson (3) - Letang (7.25)
Dumoulin (4.1) - Marino (0.9)
Muzzin/TVR/POJ - Riikola (0.8)

Murray (5)
Jarry (1.25)

That's about 68 million on that roster (assuming we can shed Bjugstad and Johnson) or 71.5 if we can't. That leaves us ~12-15 million to spend on upgrades. That could be Hall (10) + a 3rd pairing depth guy like TVR. It could be Hoffman (6) + Jake Muzzin (6). Or we could make a big trade.

I really want to see us sign or even trade for Hall this year if we had an extension in place. Would go a long-way to being long-term competitive once Sid/Geno/Tanger fade off.

In order of moving out money - or just letting money walk - here's my order:

1) Chucky
2) Schultz
3) Bjugs
4) JJ
5) Horny. He's been really good this year but I'm worried about his long-term health and the length of that deal. He's injured again. Last year he was bad upon coming back from injury. Let's see if it happens again.
6) Murray (ducks)

 

[JackFr]

I think you're a million light on your estimates for Kahun, McCann, Simon and Pettersson - and at least two million light on Murray.

I don't think Simon or Kahun will rack up the points necessary to get anything like 3.5 or 3. Plus they're restricted free agents, it wouldn't surprise me to see them bridged. McCann is of greater concern but again 4 seems high for him. But I guess we'll see if he can keep up his hot play.

Murray has not been good enough since his previous contract to warrant 7 in my mind, and I don't think that would be his rate unless JR goes nuts and gives him 8 years. Other than the Cups (before his last contract) he hasn't done anything to earn a gigantic raise.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I don't think Simon or Kahun will rack up the points necessary to get anything like 3.5 or 3. Plus they're restricted free agents, it wouldn't surprise me to see them bridged. McCann is of greater concern but again 4 seems high for him. But I guess we'll see if he can keep up his hot play.

Murray has not been good enough since his previous contract to warrant 7 in my mind, and I don't think that would be his rate unless JR goes nuts and gives him 8 years. Other than the Cups (before his last contract) he hasn't done anything to earn a gigantic raise.

If Murray wants 7, he's welcome to walk.

 

[JackFr]

If Murray wants 7, he's welcome to walk.

Since 2017 he's been a league average goaltender. That's worth 4.5-5.5 million in my books. I don't know what his agent can point at since they signed that last contract to say he deserves more than that

 

[Gurglesons]

Since 2017 he's been a league average goaltender. That's worth 4.5-5.5 million in my books. I don't know what his agent can point at since they signed that last contract to say he deserves more than that

The bigger situation is we can take him to arbitration where it would get even tougher unless he pulls out numbers like last year to finish off the season.

On the McCann note I’d try and sign him for 3.75 x 4 like today.

 

[Ginormousthumbs]

If Murray wants 7, he's welcome to walk.

Word

 

[JackFr]

The bigger situation is we can take him to arbitration where it would get even tougher unless he pulls out numbers like last year to finish off the season.

On the McCann note I’d try and sign him for 3.75 x 4 like today.

Isn't he a UFA after a 1 year deal though?

 

[Gurglesons]

Isn't he a UFA after a 1 year deal though?

Yes. But, you buy a year to trade him or see how Jarry does.

 

[Peat]

I don't think Simon or Kahun will rack up the points necessary to get anything like 3.5 or 3. Plus they're restricted free agents, it wouldn't surprise me to see them bridged. McCann is of greater concern but again 4 seems high for him. But I guess we'll see if he can keep up his hot play.

Murray has not been good enough since his previous contract to warrant 7 in my mind, and I don't think that would be his rate unless JR goes nuts and gives him 8 years. Other than the Cups (before his last contract) he hasn't done anything to earn a gigantic raise.

Looking at some of the recent RFAs...

Fiala got a 3m bridge off of a 39 point season, high of 48.
Buchnevich got a 3.25m bridge off of a 38 point season (albeit great pacing), high of 43.
Compher got a 3.5m deal with term off of a 32 point season, high of 32.
Vrana got a 3.35m bridge off of a 47 point season, high of 47.
Burakovsky got a 3.25m one year deal off of a 25 point season, high of 38.
Kerfoot got 3.5m with term off of a 42 point season, high of 43.
Johnsson got 3.4m with term off of a 43 point season, high of 43.
Kapanen got 3.2m off of a 44 point season, high of 44.

What that's saying to me is that if you get to around 40 points, you're talking about 3m, and a bridge deal doesn't really change that. Both Kahun and Simon are on pace for around 40, for Kahun that'd be the second straight season of around that pace so its pretty plausible, Simon needs extended Sid time for that but does seem likely to get it... and in any case, me adding a million to your estimate only puts him there for 2.5m, which is Lehkonen/Armia/Bennett/Iafallo - 31, 23, 27, 33 points respectively last season. Simon's 28 in 71 is a very close comparable to Bennett's numbers last season.

And McCann pacing for 50 puts him in Konecny/Schmaltz territory, which is about 5m, so here's hoping he cools down just to be talking 4m.

And I've had enough Murray chat this season already so I'll just say agree to disagree.

The bigger situation is we can take him to arbitration where it would get even tougher unless he pulls out numbers like last year to finish off the season.

On the McCann note I’d try and sign him for 3.75 x 4 like today.

Okay - I will do Murray chat on this.

If you are really that far apart on a guy with his asset value and importance to the franchise's PR, you don't inject the poison of arbitration/looming UFA drama into your veins for an entire season, you trade him there and then.

And trading him as a RFA is far easier than trading him as a looming UFA who has zero reason not to go to free agency.

 

[Gurglesons]

Looking at some of the recent RFAs...

Fiala got a 3m bridge off of a 39 point season, high of 48.
Buchnevich got a 3.25m bridge off of a 38 point season (albeit great pacing), high of 43.
Compher got a 3.5m deal with term off of a 32 point season, high of 32.
Vrana got a 3.35m bridge off of a 47 point season, high of 47.
Burakovsky got a 3.25m one year deal off of a 25 point season, high of 38.
Kerfoot got 3.5m with term off of a 42 point season, high of 43.
Johnsson got 3.4m with term off of a 43 point season, high of 43.
Kapanen got 3.2m off of a 44 point season, high of 44.

What that's saying to me is that if you get to around 40 points, you're talking about 3m, and a bridge deal doesn't really change that. Both Kahun and Simon are on pace for around 40, for Kahun that'd be the second straight season of around that pace so its pretty plausible, Simon needs extended Sid time for that but does seem likely to get it... and in any case, me adding a million to your estimate only puts him there for 2.5m, which is Lehkonen/Armia/Bennett/Iafallo - 31, 23, 27, 33 points respectively last season. Simon's 28 in 71 is a very close comparable to Bennett's numbers last season.

And McCann pacing for 50 puts him in Konecny/Schmaltz territory, which is about 5m, so here's hoping he cools down just to be talking 4m.

And I've had enough Murray chat this season already so I'll just say agree to disagree.



Okay - I will do Murray chat on this.

If you are really that far apart on a guy with his asset value and importance to the franchise's PR, you don't inject the poison of arbitration/looming UFA drama into your veins for an entire season, you trade him there and then.

And trading him as a RFA is far easier than trading him as a looming UFA who has zero reason not to go to free agency.

Taking him to arbitration or having him opt for it does not mean he goes through the process. But, with the threat looming he probably signs for cheaper long term like we see consistently.

I also think you are leaving the argument out for those wingers that their production is dependent on Sid / Malkin outside of Kahun. That being said that also leaves out the caveat that Tanev got 3.5 x6 from this team so if any of them out produce Tanev how do you argue they aren’t worth 3.5...

 

[Peat]

Taking him to arbitration or having him opt for it does not mean he goes through the process. But, with the threat looming he probably signs for cheaper long term like we see consistently.

I also think you are leaving the argument out for those wingers that their production is dependent on Sid / Malkin outside of Kahun. That being said that also leaves out the caveat that Tanev got 3.5 x6 from this team so if any of them out produce Tanev how do you argue they aren’t worth 3.5...

You don't get Crosby/Malkin product discounts from wingers signing new deals and in terms of their reliance on those guys for production, that's factored into my estimates. As for them bringing up Tanev, the answer is "Tanev was a one of a type player and a UFA, you're neither, end of discussion". They don't have enough leverage to continue it.

As for Murray and arb... if I'm his agent, I regard the team threatening it as a paper tiger for the reasons I've listed, and opting for it as a weaker option than waiting for offer sheets. I don't think it comes up.

 

[JTG]

Uh. No.

Uh. Yeah.

Bonino meshed well with talent. McCann has produced this year regardless of who he plays with. He's better defensively, he has a better shot, more speed, is more physical, is bigger, has more pedigree, and way more upside. The two areas Bonino gets the nod is faceoff ability and passing.