The Elite Prospects NHL Draft guide is here!

[Saga of the Elk]

Just want to say I appreciate all you guys do at EP. Truly one of the internet's indispensable resources for a hockey fan.

 

[DavidStLouis]

Thanks for doing this and love your content on Twitter (also a gars de chez nous)!

A few questions on Will Smith:
- Do you think he would go higher than Cooley if they were in the same draft?
- How does he compare to Zegras during their DY?

And one question on Benson:
- I think I'd be happy with either Benson or Will Smith at 5 for the Habs, but I have the impression that they wouldn't draft him Benson cause he's on the smaller side. Don't you think they learned from the Caufield draft and isn't one of the reasons why they drafted Slaf last year so they can draft based purely on skill going forward? I know it's not a process/ranking question, but would love your thoughts regardless!

Last one if you can on Reinbacher:
- Pronman just released a ranking combining both 2022 and 2023 drafts and has Jiricek at 8 and Reinbacher at 9 saying they are pretty similar. If I remember well, I believe you were pretty high on Jiricek and are lower on Reinbacher. What do you think separates both players?

View attachment 715567

*cracks knuckles*

All right.

1) Very hard questions because I think part of the reason why people like Smith so much is because of the favourable environment in which he played. If you put Cooley between Perreault and Leonard, he would score a lot and his finer skills (his deception) would shine a lot more. So it would depend on who would get the better usage. That said, if we run this as a thought experiment and say that they're playing in parallel worlds with the same quality teammates, then, I think Cooley would get drafted a bit higher. He's more dynamic (makes his plays at higher speeds) and projects better in terms of two-way play. It's extremely close. Smith is a better manipulator, one of the best feinters I've seen.

Honestly, it would depend on the team and what they value.

2) Smith and Zegras are very similar. The difference is that Zegras was way more aggressive, more physical, and meaner even. That side of his game didn't add that much to his projection, but I think he was clearly more competitive than Smith. So, overall, I think Zegras was a slightly better prospect.

Still, I didn't like him that much in his DY. I have a bias against these types of players. I know it. When ranking players like Smith or Cooley or Cristall or Stutzle, I have to fight this bias and remember what I learned over the past years. I'm getting better at it.

Top prospects in creative and free environments like the USNTDP like to experiment -- a lot. Just because they make bad decisions doesn't mean they lack hockey sense. You have to evaluate their flashes, their great moments, and project what they could become as they mature (while also taking into account their projectable flaws).

3) You can ask questions about anything. I really think they should target Benson and I'm sure they really like him, too. He's everything scouts love -- except for the size/skating combo. But Habs do consider team-building when drafting. I would be surprised to see them draft Benson, considering Caufield and maybe even Farrell. I think having two smaller players on two different top-six lines is perfectly fine, but there's a lack of precedent in the playoffs. That may scare them. They will probably target Smith, Leonard, or Reinbacher. All 3 are great choices at 5, tbh. I believe in Reinbacher even if we have him lower. Not as exciting, but could become very effective.

4) Honestly, I think it's just a matter of the 2023 NHL draft being way stronger than the 2022 one. Both prospects are almost equal in my mind. So we have Reinbacher at 9, but in 2022, he would probably have been in our top-4 somewhere. Reinbacher is a better defender and mover and Jiricek has more a better offensive instinct. He's a better playmaker. If I had to pick, I would still choose Jiricek, but it's very close. We believe in him, but Jiricek needs to improve his skating.

The guide is fantastic. I will enjoy reading through this.

I have my fair share of placement disagreements, but that is to be expected. I'm sure you've had these debates internally ad nauseam, so I'm sure you don't care to debate or defend your rankings to a random HFB user. The one thing I have to ask is how is Fantilli only a 6 skater?

Curious about your approach in other areas -

How do you handle internal disagreements to come to a final ranking? Of course not everyone will always see eye to eye, especially as you get past the top 10.

How much emphasis do you put D-1 performances? For someone like Yager I'm concerned with his development stalling after a great D-1 whereas Sale I still think quite highly of him largely based on what he did in his D-1.

How much emphasis do you put on 'big game' moments? Playoffs, tournaments, etc. For someone like Cristall, I feel like his flaws were on full display in the WHL playoffs / U18s whereas with Barlow I don't think much differently of him despite a pedestrian U18 tournament since his skill set is more translatable.

Also, curious your take on video vs live viewings.

Keep up the great work!

Thank you, everyone, for the kind words!

1) I think 6 is a fair grade for Fantilli's skating (obviously since it's our guide haha). 6.5 would have been fine, too. He has a lot of power, a lot of speed in a straight line when he gets going, and I like his crossovers. 6 is a clear above-NHL average projection, so it's a good mark.

When we evaluate skating, we give more weight to agility than other scouting services, I think. We care more about posture and weight shifting and cutbacks and pivots...Those fine movements that players are required to master in the NHL to evade pressure in tight spaces. Fantilli is more speedy and quick than agile. He skates a bit wide, a bit hunched over, and makes many of his moves in a glide. So, we appreciate the power, but to reach a 7, 8, or 9, like Molendyk or Moore, he would need to become even more fluid in his changes of direction (which is hard for a player his size). His agility isn't a weakness, but closer to NHL average than high-end, in terms of projection.

2) We try to respect the work of regional scouts when making our board. So if they have a player ahead of another one, we try our best to keep it that way, and we were pretty good at that this time around. Hard disagreements are rare inside our team because we're all reasonable people and we're discussing these players together during the season, so people already know what to expect when we meet to make our board for the most part. And we're also pretty clear about our formula to rank. We value upside the most, but also the chance of prospects reaching their upside (and many other things to a lesser extent).

I think everyone has been at EP long enough to have kind of internalized how our list will work and where prospects should go.

That said, disagreements do happen. In that case, crossover scouts and our team leaders decide what to do. It makes sense, too, because they have seen the most prospects in a draft.

So it's a mix of respecting people's work, everyone understanding our general philosophy and being relatively aligned on it, and some people having more say in the end, if needed.

So far, even if we make mistakes, it works very well. Honestly, everyone on our team is fantastic and gets along well (...from my perception at least haha).

3) We don't watch prospects as closely in their D-1, but a good D-1 is always factored in. The reason we didn't drop Salé further than where we have him is that we know his talents are still there. He showed them before.

But I find, that when you watch a D-1 prospect, you tend to not factor in flaws as much. Subconsciously. you're always thinking ''ah well he's young, I like the strengths and the rest will fix itself'' but then, if you go back and watch the tapes months later, you realize that the flaws were bigger back then than what you thought. You simply didn't focus on them as much.

So the answer is we factor in a bit, but the draft year is a lot more important, not only because we want to see progress, but because I don't trust D-1 evaluations as much.

4) We do like gamers, but we don't value them as much as other agencies or NHL scouts. Honestly, the clutch factor is often quite random (unless you're a Tkachuk). We like tournament viewings simply because it gives us another look at prospects in a different environment.

Smith became more efficient at the u18s, more engaged overall. We liked that, so he moved up. We wanted to see Cristall perform in a team where he would have to share the puck more and check harder. He didn't perform. His flaws became too hard to stomach. He dropped. Cam Allen is a good example of us dropping a prospect due to his inability to handle outside pressure, however.

5) I like video viewings more than live ones. I'm in the minority here, but while I do the work of a scout, and I'm very invested in it, what I enjoy the most is explaining the details of the game and presenting prospects to the public. Video viewings allow me to take clips and prepare articles and videos. I can rewind and look at multiple prospects. Video is also way more efficient.

My answer would change if I worked for a team, however, as it's much easier to evaluate skating and shooting live than on video. Camera angles play with your speed perception. I hate that.

Will be curious to see if Mtl is going to pick Ethan Gauthier at #31

He fits their style. I think it's a real possibility.

 

[Daniel Gee]

Thanks for checking out the guide everyone! Great to see people are enjoying it.

 

[DavidStLouis]

@DavidStLouis

David, as a Ducks fan I noticed that you had some criticism for Fantilli, and I think it is fair. Outside of what is already in the report, do you have any assessment or expectations of Fantilli's production in the NHL in the short and long-term future? Perhaps not necessarily point-wise, but in general.

And how he compares to Beniers, who had a similar situation (same system and position, leading their teams, etc)

He's a better prospect than Beniers for sure. Some of our game reports are a bit harsh, but it's just that we have high expectations. I think Fantilli can become an 80pts + center and contribute defensively, too. He projects to become the most complete prospect in this draft.

 

[95snipes]

*cracks knuckles*

All right.

1) Very hard questions because I think part of the reason why people like Smith so much is because of the favourable environment in which he played. If you put Cooley between Perreault and Leonard, he would score a lot and his finer skills (his deception) would shine a lot more. So it would depend on who would get the better usage. That said, if we run this as a thought experiment and say that they're playing in parallel worlds with the same quality teammates, then, I think Cooley would get drafted a bit higher. He's more dynamic (makes his plays at higher speeds) and projects better in terms of two-way play. It's extremely close. Smith is a better manipulator, one of the best feinters I've seen.

Honestly, it would depend on the team and what they value.

2) Smith and Zegras are very similar. The difference is that Zegras was way more aggressive, more physical, and meaner even. That side of his game didn't add that much to his projection, but I think he was clearly more competitive than Smith. So, overall, I think Zegras was a slightly better prospect.

Still, I didn't like him that much in his DY. I have a bias against these types of players. I know it. When ranking players like Smith or Cooley or Cristall or Stutzle, I have to fight this bias and remember what I learned over the past years. I'm getting better at it.

Top prospects in creative and free environments like the USNTDP like to experiment -- a lot. Just because they make bad decisions doesn't mean they lack hockey sense. You have to evaluate their flashes, their great moments, and project what they could become as they mature (while also taking into account their projectable flaws).

3) You can ask questions about anything. I really think they should target Benson and I'm sure they really like him, too. He's everything scouts love -- except for the size/skating combo. But Habs do consider team-building when drafting. I would be surprised to see them draft Benson, considering Caufield and maybe even Farrell. I think having two smaller players on two different top-six lines is perfectly fine, but there's a lack of precedent in the playoffs. That may scare them. They will probably target Smith, Leonard, or Reinbacher. All 3 are great choices at 5, tbh. I believe in Reinbacher even if we have him lower. Not as exciting, but could become very effective.

4) Honestly, I think it's just a matter of the 2023 NHL draft being way stronger than the 2022 one. Both prospects are almost equal in my mind. So we have Reinbacher at 9, but in 2022, he would probably have been in our top-4 somewhere. Reinbacher is a better defender and mover and Jiricek has more a better offensive instinct. He's a better playmaker. If I had to pick, I would still choose Jiricek, but it's very close. We believe in him, but Jiricek needs to improve his skating.



Thank you, everyone, for the kind words!

1) I think 6 is a fair grade for Fantilli's skating (obviously since it's our guide haha). 6.5 would have been fine, too. He has a lot of power, a lot of speed in a straight line when he gets going, and I like his crossovers. 6 is a clear above-NHL average projection, so it's a good mark.

When we evaluate skating, we give more weight to agility than other scouting services, I think. We care more about posture and weight shifting and cutbacks and pivots...Those fine movements that players are required to master in the NHL to evade pressure in tight spaces. Fantilli is more speedy and quick than agile. He skates a bit wide, a bit hunched over, and makes many of his moves in a glide. So, we appreciate the power, but to reach a 7, 8, or 9, like Molendyk or Moore, he would need to become even more fluid in his changes of direction (which is hard for a player his size). His agility isn't a weakness, but closer to NHL average than high-end, in terms of projection.

2) We try to respect the work of regional scouts when making our board. So if they have a player ahead of another one, we try our best to keep it that way, and we were pretty good at that this time around. Hard disagreements are rare inside our team because we're all reasonable people and we're discussing these players together during the season, so people already know what to expect when we meet to make our board for the most part. And we're also pretty clear about our formula to rank. We value upside the most, but also the chance of prospects reaching their upside (and many other things to a lesser extent).

I think everyone has been at EP long enough to have kind of internalized how our list will work and where prospects should go.

That said, disagreements do happen. In that case, crossover scouts and our team leaders decide what to do. It makes sense, too, because they have seen the most prospects in a draft.

So it's a mix of respecting people's work, everyone understanding our general philosophy and being relatively aligned on it, and some people having more say in the end, if needed.

So far, even if we make mistakes, it works very well. Honestly, everyone on our team is fantastic and gets along well (...from my perception at least haha).

3) We don't watch prospects as closely in their D-1, but a good D-1 is always factored in. The reason we didn't drop Salé further than where we have him is that we know his talents are still there. He showed them before.

But I find, that when you watch a D-1 prospect, you tend to not factor in flaws as much. Subconsciously. you're always thinking ''ah well he's young, I like the strengths and the rest will fix itself'' but then, if you go back and watch the tapes months later, you realize that the flaws were bigger back then than what you thought. You simply didn't focus on them as much.

So the answer is we factor in a bit, but the draft year is a lot more important, not only because we want to see progress, but because I don't trust D-1 evaluations as much.

4) We do like gamers, but we don't value them as much as other agencies or NHL scouts. Honestly, the clutch factor is often quite random (unless you're a Tkachuk). We like tournament viewings simply because it gives us another look at prospects in a different environment.

Smith became more efficient at the u18s, more engaged overall. We liked that, so he moved up. We wanted to see Cristall perform in a team where he would have to share the puck more and check harder. He didn't perform. His flaws became too hard to stomach. He dropped. Cam Allen is a good example of us dropping a prospect due to his inability to handle outside pressure, however.

5) I like video viewings more than live ones. I'm in the minority here, but while I do the work of a scout, and I'm very invested in it, what I enjoy the most is explaining the details of the game and presenting prospects to the public. Video viewings allow me to take clips and prepare articles and videos. I can rewind and look at multiple prospects. Video is also way more efficient.

My answer would change if I worked for a team, however, as it's much easier to evaluate skating and shooting live than on video. Camera angles play with your speed perception. I hate that.


He fits their style. I think it's a real possibility.

Interesting stuff, thanks for the response!

 

[Kcoyote3]

I guess to continue the conversation from the Sawchyn thread on here, do either one of you, Daniel or David, have any thoughts about his play late in the year? He was pretty ineffective during the Memorial Cup, possibly due to injury. Does that change thoughts on his ranking at all? 13 is probably the highest rank he's gotten on a maintstream list.

 

[Vasilevskiy]

I subscribed. Amazing guide. Just wanted to say thanks for all the work and videos in yt. They're very nice

 

[DavidStLouis]

I guess to continue the conversation from the Sawchyn thread on here, do either one of you, Daniel or David, have any thoughts about his play late in the year? He was pretty ineffective during the Memorial Cup, possibly due to injury. Does that change thoughts on his ranking at all? 13 is probably the highest rank he's gotten on a maintstream list.

We can't confirm that, but let's just say that it would make sense based on his play. And no it doesn't change our view of him at all.

We project prospects mostly based on their highs. And we saw so many great things from Sawchyn in the first part of the season that it's easy for us to completely discard his performance over the last couple of months, especially because, as you said, there might be an easy explanation for that.

Honestly, we don't really understand why we're the only ones having him so high. I'm betting a team will reach for him.

 

[AHShadow]

*cracks knuckles*

All right.

1) Very hard questions because I think part of the reason why people like Smith so much is because of the favourable environment in which he played. If you put Cooley between Perreault and Leonard, he would score a lot and his finer skills (his deception) would shine a lot more. So it would depend on who would get the better usage. That said, if we run this as a thought experiment and say that they're playing in parallel worlds with the same quality teammates, then, I think Cooley would get drafted a bit higher. He's more dynamic (makes his plays at higher speeds) and projects better in terms of two-way play. It's extremely close. Smith is a better manipulator, one of the best feinters I've seen.

Honestly, it would depend on the team and what they value.

2) Smith and Zegras are very similar. The difference is that Zegras was way more aggressive, more physical, and meaner even. That side of his game didn't add that much to his projection, but I think he was clearly more competitive than Smith. So, overall, I think Zegras was a slightly better prospect.

Still, I didn't like him that much in his DY. I have a bias against these types of players. I know it. When ranking players like Smith or Cooley or Cristall or Stutzle, I have to fight this bias and remember what I learned over the past years. I'm getting better at it.

Top prospects in creative and free environments like the USNTDP like to experiment -- a lot. Just because they make bad decisions doesn't mean they lack hockey sense. You have to evaluate their flashes, their great moments, and project what they could become as they mature (while also taking into account their projectable flaws).

3) You can ask questions about anything. I really think they should target Benson and I'm sure they really like him, too. He's everything scouts love -- except for the size/skating combo. But Habs do consider team-building when drafting. I would be surprised to see them draft Benson, considering Caufield and maybe even Farrell. I think having two smaller players on two different top-six lines is perfectly fine, but there's a lack of precedent in the playoffs. That may scare them. They will probably target Smith, Leonard, or Reinbacher. All 3 are great choices at 5, tbh. I believe in Reinbacher even if we have him lower. Not as exciting, but could become very effective.

4) Honestly, I think it's just a matter of the 2023 NHL draft being way stronger than the 2022 one. Both prospects are almost equal in my mind. So we have Reinbacher at 9, but in 2022, he would probably have been in our top-4 somewhere. Reinbacher is a better defender and mover and Jiricek has more a better offensive instinct. He's a better playmaker. If I had to pick, I would still choose Jiricek, but it's very close. We believe in him, but Jiricek needs to improve his skating.

Did not expect you to reply to every single one, but really really appreciate the thoughtful answer.

I really do hope the Habs draft either Smith or Benson at 5 (if Michkov is not available). We haven't that type of dynamic forward for a long time, so really hoping that we get one of the 3.

I'd be also okay with Reinbacher, but would still prefer a forward overall.

Once again, thanks for the response!

 

[ponder]

Thanks for posting @DavidStLouis , really enjoy your videos, love your focus on decision making/hockey IQ. Great scouting insights, and even useful as a (beer league) hockey player myself. I try to work in some of the ideas about how to move the puck and create opportunities in different situations

Do you have any personal favourite steal picks for the 2023 draft? Guys you have ranked significantly higher than most?

 

[WeThreeKings]

Do you think Ryan Leonard could have a similar D+1 to Gauthier?

Someone who wasn't looked at in the top 5 until the noise came out around the combine, and then followed it up with a great D+1 season in the NCAA along with a strong showing at the Worlds?

Or do you think because Leonard lacks a high end tool like Gauthier's shot, that picking Leonard in the top 7 would be a reach predicated solely on his style of play?

 

[Daniel Gee]

Do you think Ryan Leonard could have a similar D+1 to Gauthier?

Someone who wasn't looked at in the top 5 until the noise came out around the combine, and then followed it up with a great D+1 season in the NCAA along with a strong showing at the Worlds?

Or do you think because Leonard lacks a high end tool like Gauthier's shot, that picking Leonard in the top 7 would be a reach predicated solely on his style of play?

I don't have much insight on Gauthier (one of the guys I haven't had many viewings of) but Leonard is such an impressive player. I think he will continue to increase in value as time roars on. When you look at the interaction and blend of his tools -- the skating (explosiveness, motor), the pro-level shooting, small and large-ice handling, even the deception used in transition, you already have a hell of a player. Then layer upon elite sense and so many physical attributes -- it's an easy sell. One of the true power forwards of this draft, I think we were most impressed with how much more he added to his game throughout the season. Growth is huge for us, comparing the start of the season to the end of the season performances, and it's clear that Leonard had levelled up in terms of incorporating more nuance into his game. We don't think it's too much of a reach when we placed him at 6. The floor is high and the upside, in our opinion, is ridiculous. Teams win with impact players of his archetype, and if an organization decided that's what they want early in the order, I can't knock that decision at all.

 

[WeThreeKings]

I don't have much insight on Gauthier (one of the guys I haven't had many viewings of) but Leonard is such an impressive player. I think he will continue to increase in value as time roars on. When you look at the interaction and blend of his tools -- the skating (explosiveness, motor), the pro-level shooting, small and large-ice handling, even the deception used in transition, you already have a hell of a player. Then layer upon elite sense and so many physical attributes -- it's an easy sell. One of the true power forwards of this draft, I think we were most impressed with how much nuance he added to his game throughout the season. Growth is huge for us, comparing the start of the season to the end of the season performances, and it's clear that Leonard had levelled up in terms of incorporating more nuance into his game. We don't think it's too much of a reach when we placed him at 6. The floor is high and the upside, in our opinion, is ridiculous. Teams win with impact players of his archetype, and if an organization decided that's what they want early in the order, I can't knock that decision at all.

Thanks Daniel - btw, love your input on the YouTube ranking videos you guys do.

Can't tell you how many times you, David, Mitch and Lauren have turned me on to an underrated prospect and shone a light on someone undervalued or under-hyped.

 

[DavidStLouis]

Thanks for posting @DavidStLouis , really enjoy your videos, love your focus on decision making/hockey IQ. Great scouting insights, and even useful as a (beer league) hockey player myself. I try to work in some of the ideas about how to move the puck and create opportunities in different situations

Do you have any personal favourite steal picks for the 2023 draft? Guys you have ranked significantly higher than most?

Thank you! That's great to hear. I like talking about the details of the game (as I see them) even more than prospects. Steals? Gracyn Sawchyn, Quentin Musty, Andrew Cristall, Jayden Perron, amd Beau Akey could all easily surpass their draft slot value. In terms of mid-rounds guys, I like Noah Dower Nilsson and Luke Coughlin (my favorite Q prospect this season).

 

[LGB]

I'd be interested in your thoughts on Matthew Wood vs. Calum Ritchie. I like Ritchie a lot, but most outlets have him ranked later and Wood has been a huge riser even in the top 10 in a lot of places. They also of course played together at the U18's. I could see both being on the Blues radar at 10th.

 

[Rebels57]

One day Will Smith will be loved by Elite Prospects

#7 is just criminal

As a Flyers fan with the 7th overall pick, I love it.

 

[Frozenice]

Where do you have Brzustewicz ranked? I thought he was going to be a slam dunk for being a 1st rounder and now a lot of other draft lists seem to have him going later then that.

 

[Static]

 

[DavidStLouis]

I'd be interested in your thoughts on Matthew Wood vs. Calum Ritchie. I like Ritchie a lot, but most outlets have him ranked later and Wood has been a huge riser even in the top 10 in a lot of places. They also of course played together at the U18's. I could see both being on the Blues radar at 10th.

I love Ritchie. Big fan. I think he was the glue on that first-line at the u18s (Wood-Celebrini-Ritchie), what made it work. He connects passing plays, always moves to the right spot, gives a great effort defensively.... We believe in his combination of details, hockey sense, and high-level handling and playmaking skills a lot. He's not as flashy as some others, but there is not a lot missing there (apart from an extra skating gear).

Where do you have Brzustewicz ranked? I thought he was going to be a slam dunk for being a 1st rounder and now a lot of other draft lists seem to have him going later then that.

I like Brzustewicz the most on our team. The issue is that the skating is more of an average projection and he's not that effective at defending the rush. If his tools were a bit better or if his hockey projected more as high-end, then he would be higher on our board. In other words, he's a bit too vanilla as a prospect for an older one.

I'm giving you our overall team view here, as personally, I do believe in his skating and sense a bit more. I would have given both of those abilities above-average grades and I like his elusiveness and reads on breakouts. If I were to make a board, he would be closer to 40 than 52, where we have him.