HF Habs: The Development Thread

[Goldthorpe]

I was talking about this particular projected top 6 as it currently stands; we're too small. Newhook is not the player we needed to add organizationally.

I don't think the habs went after Newhook to address a size issue, but for his speed and overall pacing.

I think they need more great players first and foremost.

 

[Twisted Sinister]

I don't think the habs went after Newhook to address a size issue, but for his speed and overall pacing.

I think they need more great players first and foremost.

Not with that profile in my view. Not enough of an offensive ceiling. But hey, that's why we're all here. To talk about it.

 

[Goldthorpe]

...if he has no future, why keep him?

Interesting Time for Drafting/Development

haven't had the time to do much scouting but either I'm out of touch or perhaps need new glasses as the little I did see I wasn't in favor of picking any of Reinbacher, Slaf, or KK as I wanted to trade down all 3 times for an extra 1st but my guys have been injured in Boqvist, Nazar and this...

forums.hfboards.com

 

[Chili]

You mean like the ones we just passed up on?

Does anyone that they didn't pick matter anymore?

 

[Sam de Mtl]

League is in a vacuum ATM it seems to me. The old guard is not as impactful, there are young impact players, but not enough to field a lot of competitive teams. It seems like there are only a handful of good goalies anymore and they are getting up there in age. A guy like Ullmark wins hardware; great for him, but he is not a guy I would expect at the top of this profession.

Can't see a path rebuilding thought those shit UFAs, therefore the only way forward is to develop your guys. I like what MSL has done so far on that front.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

I was talking about this particular projected top 6 as it currently stands; we're too small. Newhook is not the player we needed to add organizationally.

And no, after this week, I don't trust this management team anymore.

For christ sake. NEWHOOK IS NOT SMAL.L. He is 190 lb. Is Boldy small because he is only 10 lb heavier.

 

[ReHabs]

I think it is fair to say this organization has placed a lot of faith in its ability to unlock talent and develop players in a way we have not seen before.

I am not yet convinced this is a “one secret trick!” that other teams haven’t considered or been able to formulate. It’s likely very hard to execute because of all the variables and aspects involved.

MSL is crucial. The fact we don’t have expectations is evaporating and quickly so — if we lose, fans and media won’t shrug it off so easily next season. Suzuki will be challenged, Caufield will be challenged, the management will be challenged. I hope they succeed to add some support to the skill guys because on paper it looks like we are both underskilled and overfull.

 

[therocket9]

I would rather Heineman earns it.

Earns it RHP earned ice time how much is going to play with at least a dozen veteran forwards ahead of him.

 

[EXPOS123]

Way too early to say what they got from this draft as once they traded for Newhook they sort of signaled that they weren't too high on the depth of this draft. After pick 69 I think it was just more throw some picks at the wall and see what sticks. So let's see how this entire draft class looks in 10 years cause they clearly didn't think too highly of it or else they would have had more then 1 top 68 pick as that's a very MB like draft so it flashed serious PTSD for me from 2014 - 2016 drafts.

This could be a disaster but EVERYONE should keep an open mind as I don't give a f*** who anyone is, there is not a single person that knows how this will play out. Reinbacher could end up being the greatest or just average who knows. After that with the odds on draft picks playing 300 NHL games or more is so low after the 1st round that I don't expect much from a draft when you go into picking once in the top 68. That said they seemed to throw some picks away (no offense to Xhekaj but he looks like an ECHLer in the 1 game I saw) and some other odd ones. I can't say I see what they did in Reinbacher but I also haven't seen much of him as I only saw him at the WJC's and maybe a little of the WC's.



It makes sense in that the clearly are trying to find skilled players with elite speed/skating/motor. Heinemen, Newhook, Smilanic, Beck, Mesar are all great skaters with high end speed/motors. Now the question will be is that the right choice, I do like it myself as speed is a good start to build around but of course you will need lots of other things as well. Time will tell if they got it right or not.

The problem is we still don’t have a #1C Someone ideally in the mold of Matthew Tkachuk, or at the very least someone with skill and size who could handle himself physically.

You build around a #1C outwards. You can get all the character guys with speed you want and we are still just going in circles

 

[Twisted Sinister]

For christ sake. NEWHOOK IS NOT SMAL.L. He is 190 lb. Is Boldy small because he is only 10 lb heavier.

Average height of an NHL forward is 6'1" 197. He's small.

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

Broadly agree. The major area of strength is defence, and the major weakness is on offence. We've come a long way from the days where we thought we were set with Beaulieu and Tinordi. Lane had a monster season and isn't even our top dog on defence. I think it hasn't really sunk in just how good Engström season in Sweden was, he f***ing killed it this year, regular season, playoffs, juniors. And Reinbacher is the top D in this draft, IMO.

But the forwards is where it gets murky, as always in Montreal. Suzuki and Caufield are excellent players, but beyond that, we have a bunch of potential and no sure things. Maybe we get lucky, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

A lottery win this year would be just what the doctor ordered. Eiserman or Celebrini are exactly what this team needs.

But I think it’s worth it to note that it’s pretty damn good potential.

Dach made big strides and many people think he can be pretty damn close to being Suzuki’s equal with real potential for more.

Newhook’s upside is real and pretty high. I don’t think he’s that far off the aforementioned skill wise and no one’s really pointed out major red flags. He’s not 24-25.

And I sincerely hope no matter how cold one might be on Slaf, a top 6er with a size, skill, skating combo that is very rare is still a reasonable expectation. A player that could pay dividends come playoff time.

And you still have Roy, Heineman and a few others showing plenty of promise.

I’m very convinced we haven’t seen the best of Suzuki and Caufield. The latter especially. Who hasn’t quite put together that high end playmaking that he’s flashed in ncaa and the cup run.

I think we should be taking home run swings at high end scorers all day long going forward but I wouldn’t be all together surprised if what we have could turn into a more than fine top 6 honestly. Not saying it’s a sure thing of course but I still think there’s a ton of promise here and sure as helluva great foundation to build on. Better than I’ve seen in the last 20 years or so

 

[BenchBrawl]

One of Engstrom, Hutson or Mailloux has to hit and become a Top 3 defenseman, to support Guhle and Reinbacher.

The one with the best shot is Engstrom.

If this doesn't happen, the team will go nowhere.

 

[Habs]

Way too early to say what they got from this draft as once they traded for Newhook they sort of signaled that they weren't too high on the depth of this draft. After pick 69 I think it was just more throw some picks at the wall and see what sticks. So let's see how this entire draft class looks in 10 years cause they clearly didn't think too highly of it or else they would have had more then 1 top 68 pick as that's a very MB like draft so it flashed serious PTSD for me from 2014 - 2016 drafts.

This could be a disaster but EVERYONE should keep an open mind as I don't give a f*** who anyone is, there is not a single person that knows how this will play out. Reinbacher could end up being the greatest or just average who knows. After that with the odds on draft picks playing 300 NHL games or more is so low after the 1st round that I don't expect much from a draft when you go into picking once in the top 68. That said they seemed to throw some picks away (no offense to Xhekaj but he looks like an ECHLer in the 1 game I saw) and some other odd ones. I can't say I see what they did in Reinbacher but I also haven't seen much of him as I only saw him at the WJC's and maybe a little of the WC's.



It makes sense in that the clearly are trying to find skilled players with elite speed/skating/motor. Heinemen, Newhook, Smilanic, Beck, Mesar are all great skaters with high end speed/motors. Now the question will be is that the right choice, I do like it myself as speed is a good start to build around but of course you will need lots of other things as well. Time will tell if they got it right or not.

all true, but he is not considered to be an franchise D, from what I have read.. unless 2nd pairing D ceiling is adequate. If he is a Seider, wonderful. If not, it will be sad if he's a 3-4 dman and that's all we get out of it.

 

[Goldthorpe]

One of Engstrom, Hutson or Mailloux has to hit and become a Top 3 defenseman, to support Guhle and Reinbacher.

The one with the best shot is Engstrom.

If this doesn't happen, the team will go nowhere.

To be honest I like the chances of it happening.

I don't remember us having such a deep defensive prospect pool. Reinbacher just really solidified it.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

not me. I would rather see him in Laval first. Hoffman can help the tank.

So you're firmly on team tank for next season?

 

[JoelWarlord]

IMO Newhook is getting a little overanalyzed in terms of being a strong indicator of where the team is going, a sign of accelerating the rebuild, the future core being "finished", etc. I think that trade had more to do with having an obvious open spot in the top 6 for him TODAY for a development opportunity, plus our system already being pretty full with the kind of cutesy smallish high NHLe "steals" (Roy, Farrell, Ylonen, Roy, etc. plus Mesar as another small skill guy) that we might be targeting at those spots so they decided to go for a single more premium piece and skip the 3-4 year development gauntlet from draft year to NHLer.

I do think they're bullish on Newhook, but I don't really think Newhook is a guy they're absolutely locking in as a 100% CORE piece going forward in the same way as Dach was, and I think the price paid reflects that. They like his game and think he can take a jump on the wing, and if he becomes a top 6 playmaker but having too many small forwards becomes an issue down the line you can always just trade him, it's not like you won't get anything good for a 26 y/o top 6 playmaking winger if that's what he becomes but the fit isn't right. Same if he doesn't progress, a 25-26 y/o speedy 3C is still going to fetch a decent return (or could just be a good piece to keep).

I also don't think they're trying to "end" the rebuild or think it's done yet, we're still pretty clearly in a soft tank phase and outside of a fantasy scenario where everyone progresses hugely we're likely picking in the 6-12 range pre-lotto next year. 24-25 is probably their target to move up the standings but that's still going to hinge on development next year and how much bad money we can ship out too.

 

[JuJu Mobb]

Trade D prospects for forwards.

 

[First Line]

IMO Newhook is getting a little overanalyzed in terms of being a strong indicator of where the team is going, a sign of accelerating the rebuild, the future core being "finished", etc. I think that trade had more to do with having an obvious open spot in the top 6 for him TODAY for a development opportunity, plus our system already being pretty full with the kind of cutesy smallish high NHLe "steals" (Roy, Farrell, Ylonen, Roy, etc. plus Mesar as another small skill guy) that we might be targeting at those spots so they decided to go for a single more premium piece and skip the 3-4 year development gauntlet from draft year to NHLer.

I do think they're bullish on Newhook, but I don't really think Newhook is a guy they're absolutely locking in as a 100% CORE piece going forward in the same way as Dach was, and I think the price paid reflects that. They like his game and think he can take a jump on the wing, and if he becomes a top 6 playmaker but having too many small forwards becomes an issue down the line you can always just trade him, it's not like you won't get anything good for a 26 y/o top 6 playmaking winger if that's what he becomes but the fit isn't right. Same if he doesn't progress, a 25-26 y/o speedy 3C is still going to fetch a decent return (or could just be a good piece to keep).

I also don't think they're trying to "end" the rebuild or think it's done yet, we're still pretty clearly in a soft tank phase and outside of a fantasy scenario where everyone progresses hugely we're likely picking in the 6-12 range pre-lotto next year. 24-25 is probably their target to move up the standings but that's still going to hinge on development next year and how much bad money we can ship out too.

Exactly, rebuild is not done. They still havent unloaded all the contracts they want and put all their pieces in place especially a true 1G.

You want to know how long they plan on building, take a look on how long they planned on having Jake Allen as their #1.
So prepare for 2 more years and then we can judge the team they build and see it grow.

The biggest misunderstanding, again was the Hughes said we would try to compete. What he meant was that the mindset of the team would be aimed more towards competition and less toward giving everyone a chance to develop , for that you need depth and an internal competition.

He was not saying this team would be more competitive the way fans think. He already had to repeat this in the july 1st zoom call, it’s more a mindset than actual actions to make additions to the team. I just think he didn’t explain it well enough since many seem to think the rebuild is over even after Molson himself said 2 more years.

 

[JoelWarlord]

The biggest misunderstanding, again was the Hughes said we would try to compete. What he meant was that the mindset of the team would be aimed more towards competition and less toward giving everyone a chance to develop , for that you need depth and an internal competition.

Yeah I agree, it's pretty clear that they're not meaningfully trying to "compete" for the playoffs this year, and I'm surprised by all the talk of the rebuild being over. All they mean is that we're going into the year not explicitly intending to angle for a top 5 pick the way we were the last two years, not that the rebuild is over and we need to make the playoffs ASAP at all costs. We're still looking at picking in the 6-12 range unless pretty much everything goes right, and we could potentially end up picking top 5 again given we're likely last place in our division and our goaltending could easily crater.

All we've really done this offseason is bring back Monahan with the likely intention of flipping him again, dumped Edmundson, and trade a couple picks for a 22 year old who will get time in the top 6. Otherwise I think they'll trade Dvorak once teams miss out on their first wave of targets, and potentially dump Hoffman at 50% retained and sign a cheap depth plug or two. I don't think we'll do anything of consequence for the active roster unless something drops into our laps like eg. a team trading for Karlsson and having to dump a good 4-6M forward just to make the cap space. We might eat a bad contract for picks again too but not sure about that materializing with how weak this UFA class is.

 

[pickles555]

Team seems to be trending in the same direction it was going during the Carey Price years. 100% emphasis on preventing goals, not enough emphasis on scoring goals.

Too much wasted boring hockey during those years.

The team wasn't going onto the ice trying to WIN the game. The team was going onto the ice trying not to LOSE the game.

I would rather lose games 8-7 or 6-5 than 1-0 or 2-1

 

[Sorinth]

It will be very interesting to watch the D develop especially if we are relatively healthy. The current NHL group is pretty much established but where everyone ends up on the depth chart is very much up for grabs. Outside of Matheson and Guhle being in the top-4 nobody really has a spot locked down. Savard obviously has the inside track for one of those top-4 spot but it's far from secure given his age and style of play. For the rest being able to establish themselves in the coach's eye is critical for their future with the team because next year there are likely to be some pretty hyped guys pushing for an NHL spot.

 

[Maitz]

I was very frustrated when they didn’t go for Michkov, haven’t felt that angry in a while lol but the more I see the big picture the more I get it. I understand the « culture » thing as they wanna build a team of good players, gamers, that don’t wanna be selfish and have a guy asking 11M and screw up all the dynamic, they want a team that will be deep and balanced ala BOS/VGK, good defence wins you championship, it’s still true. Still want Michkov because I think he has 100 pts potential year after year. But if he disappear in the playoffs I will be very happy with Reinbacher playing big minutes and being a Montour/Pietrangelo for us

 

[Takeru]

IMO Newhook is getting a little overanalyzed in terms of being a strong indicator of where the team is going, a sign of accelerating the rebuild, the future core being "finished", etc. I think that trade had more to do with having an obvious open spot in the top 6 for him TODAY for a development opportunity, plus our system already being pretty full with the kind of cutesy smallish high NHLe "steals" (Roy, Farrell, Ylonen, Roy, etc. plus Mesar as another small skill guy) that we might be targeting at those spots so they decided to go for a single more premium piece and skip the 3-4 year development gauntlet from draft year to NHLer.

I do think they're bullish on Newhook, but I don't really think Newhook is a guy they're absolutely locking in as a 100% CORE piece going forward in the same way as Dach was, and I think the price paid reflects that. They like his game and think he can take a jump on the wing, and if he becomes a top 6 playmaker but having too many small forwards becomes an issue down the line you can always just trade him, it's not like you won't get anything good for a 26 y/o top 6 playmaking winger if that's what he becomes but the fit isn't right. Same if he doesn't progress, a 25-26 y/o speedy 3C is still going to fetch a decent return (or could just be a good piece to keep).

I also don't think they're trying to "end" the rebuild or think it's done yet, we're still pretty clearly in a soft tank phase and outside of a fantasy scenario where everyone progresses hugely we're likely picking in the 6-12 range pre-lotto next year. 24-25 is probably their target to move up the standings but that's still going to hinge on development next year and how much bad money we can ship out too.

Totally agree with your perspective on Newhook.

Sometimes lost in translation in those trade analyses is the fact roster construction is an ever dynamic process. Who knows how many of our current penciled top6 F/top 4 D are still here 2/3/5 years down the line? Even Bergevin understood the value of trading key players to adress roster issues, though his most significant trades were either ill-advised or lateral as he never managed to make a quantity for quality transaction.

It does seem like the idea is buying lowish on younger players hoping they find that other gear and turn into better assets than what they were dealt for. Then we have better options to make improvements via trades targetting more elite players.

 

[26Mats]

haven't had the time to do much scouting but either I'm out of touch or perhaps need new glasses as the little I did see I wasn't in favor of picking any of Reinbacher, Slaf, or KK as I wanted to trade down all 3 times for an extra 1st but my guys have been injured in Boqvist, Nazar and this year the only one I badly wanted us to get was Smith so we couldn't. I didn't know who Maiiloux was until a few days before the draft when it came out he didn't want to be drafted but I thought the pick made sense once I watched him. Of course I think just about everyone wanted Caufield.

With the team building it's self around Caufield, Suzuki, I can see why they want to add size/skill in guys like Slaf, Reinbacher as I'm sure they are looking at Hutson and seeing that with the right fit he could be a f***ing star in several years. You just have to hope that Hughes is looking at the situation closely and making decisions based off correct info. It's way too early but a year later gives you some indication and there's a lot to like and several to be concerned with from the Habs group of scouts.

But that doesn't mean anything at this point, it's just way, way too early to say what the Habs have in all these prospects they have amassed lately. We have a HC that looks like he can develop offensive talent, we have a lot of prospects that will need top notch development from this organization every step of the way going forward if they are to get this right imo. Or I could be wrong and Slaf, Reinbacher, Mesar end up kicking major ass vs Kulich, Leonard, Cooley as well as Dach and Newhook since they will need to hit on both to some degree.

Goaltending was my big concern as I just can't say I believe in Monty just yet to be the one to lead us to being a contender but it's hard to say how long that will take as clearly management is looking to speed things up by trading the 13th, 31st, 37th OA picks in the last year. That could be a very smart move or it could just set us back further. So now we'll need to see did they find their goalie of the future, cause right now we have the most goalie prospects I have ever seen, so I at least like our odds that we hit pay dirt on one of them.

I really like the D prospects, we know Guhle, Harris will be very solid NHLers or better, Barron is showing things but still needs improvement/development, Xhejkaj is a beast. They will need time to learn, grow, progress, improve. It should be lots of ups and downs. Hutson, Mailloux are very much boom or bust types but they are a lot of fun and highly skilled. Reinbacher looks to worse to be a solid bottom pairing D, of course you expect better but it's hard seeing him bust. That alone is an excellent mix, add in Engstrom who had an outstanding season in the SHL at 19, how much progress does he show will be massive for the Habs. Norlinder struggled badly in the first half but he really turned it around in the 2nd half so we'll see if he can show progress or is this it. Struble will play in the NHL at some point.

Clearly the strength is the D prospects/youth. Lots of hope in net but will likely need a few years to really get a good idea of where both stand. At least you can see how this could end up going either very well, good, great even as there is a lot to like here. Not saying it will or won't as how could I know one way or the other but I can at least see how we could be set here like really set. Which then leads to the offense where imo we still need a lot of work. As much as I like the Caufield/Suzuki do, I was surprised by Dach and RHP being so good this year and even a little bit by Guhle as I didn't think he would look so good so fast.

I really like Farrell but you got to wonder how it could work with Caufield in the top 6 and perhaps Newhook. Heineman at worst I think will be a 4th liner as he should be a safe bet to be an NHLer. Roy is certainly one of the most interesting prospects we have, how they develop him and Farrell in terms of improving their physical tools of strength, skating, speed, mass, will be very interesting to see how it unfolds.

It looks like they will need a high pick in '24 and '25 to help with the offense or trade for someone in the Dach-Newhook range or hopefully better as Anderson is 29 and this could be a few years so that asset could end up being wasted depending of course on how everything else goes, if Hughes gets this thing going faster then expected then hopefully the right moves are made. It's way way too early to say one way or the other at this point but it will be very interesting to see from a development standpoint at least.

My thoughts after reading your poat:

What did you think of Michkov? Were you scared off by the questions about his character, ability to translate his game to the NHL, amd other unknowns, as it seems Habs brass was?

I'd like to put Anderson and Dvo in positions to maximize their numbers so as to maximize their return of futures. I hope we use the cap space we have this year to get futures. Need to add more young offensive players to the roster. Not sure passing on Michkov was wise, as good as Reinbacher was. Ideally imo we would have traded Hutson for 6rh overall and taken both Reinbacher and Michkov. But no indications Arizona would have done that.

 

[montreal]

My thoughts after reading your poat:

What did you think of Michkov? Were you scared off by the questions about his character, ability to translate his game to the NHL, amd other unknowns, as it seems Habs brass was?

I'd like to put Anderson and Dvo in positions to maximize their numbers so as to maximize their return of futures. I hope we use the cap space we have this year to get futures. Need to add more young offensive players to the roster. Not sure passing on Michkov was wise, as good as Reinbacher was. Ideally imo we would have traded Hutson for 6rh overall and taken both Reinbacher and Michkov. But no indications Arizona would have done that.

For Michkov I watched him play a good bit when he was 15 and teammates with Hab prospect Alexander Gordin and I saw several games this year of his in the VHL (their AHL). I was not in favor of picking him because he reminds me a lot of Caufield but a better playmaker.

I just don't really believe you can have 2 Caufield's in the NHL playoffs and win a cup. That said I would have picked Michkov over Reinbacher because of the upside to Michkov is sky high just as it was with Caufield on his draft day. He should have never fell to 15th, so teams learned when a better version of Caufield (he's a little bigger) but neither seem to be all that concerned with team defense so I just don't think it would work.