The Dallas Stars look really bad

[Turin]

There's plenty of skilled players that are still putting up huge numbers in their 30s.

Obviously right now Benn's not one of them, but I'm just saying there's no one else to blame for his decline in recent years.

Something's clearly missing from his game.

He’s had pretty nagging injuries if I’m remember correctly, plus he’s slower and the league is faster. It’s strange how he can’t make much of himself in the way of a solid puck support player though.

 

[Hokinaittii]

Heisikanen looks really bad. A stint in the AHL would help.

He has been their best player so far.

 

[absolute garbage]

I'm just waiting for the Benn Eriksson trade to happen.

 

[ZeHockeyFan]

It was certainly a message from the owner.

Not the horseshit part. That was all Lites.

If Gaglardi told his lap-dog to bark out expletive tirades about his players then the organization is more toxic than I thought it was.

 

[Dr Pepper]

He has been their best player so far.

Pretty sure that poster was just trolling.

At least I hope so. Pretty moronic thing to say otherwise.

 

[Dr Pepper]

I'm just waiting for the Benn Eriksson trade to happen.

Might be waiting a while.

 

[MrHeiskanen]

It's a great feeling knowing you won't make the playoffs in October.

 

[Sanchise90]

I've been saying this for years, the problem with the Stars is Jim Nill. While he is a good trader, there have been numerous issues with him:

1) Since he has been our GM, we have been one of the worst drafting teams in the NHL. Nill doesn't even have the excuse of a team like San Jose or St. Louis where they have picking at the end of the first for years. We have been picking consistently in the top half of the draft and only Miro (who was a fluke we even got up there) has shown anything resembling All-Star talent.

2) The problem with missing on draft picks is that Nill ends up signing guys in FA to compensate and those guys always end up being older, which in a speed era is problematic.

3) The guy has gone through 2 coaches and everyone is clamoring for him to get rid of the 3rd. How much leeway are you going to give him on his 4th coach in like 6 years...

 

[Elysian]

I've been saying this for years, the problem with the Stars is Jim Nill. While he is a good trader, there have been numerous issues with him:

1) Since he has been our GM, we have been one of the worst drafting teams in the NHL. Nill doesn't even have the excuse of a team like San Jose or St. Louis where they have picking at the end of the first for years. We have been picking consistently in the top half of the draft and only Miro (who was a fluke we even got up there) has shown anything resembling All-Star talent.

2) The problem with missing on draft picks is that Nill ends up signing guys in FA to compensate and those guys always end up being older, which in a speed era is problematic

3) The guy has gone through 2 coaches and everyone is clamoring for him to get rid of the 3rd. How much leeway are you going to give him on his 4th coach in like 6 years...

I don't want him hiring another coach, I want his replacement doing that, or deciding to keep Monty, whichever.

 

[AveryStar4Eva]

Clearly we are setting ourselves up for a St Louis type comeback.

 

[Dubi Doo]

It's a great feeling knowing you won't make the playoffs in October.

As a Sabres fan, I feel for yall. Been there way too many times. At least we made it to Januaryast year before the realization of another year with no playoffs hit.

 

[Nighthock]

too much Whataburger

 

[StLHokie]

Blues had the same start last year, I wouldn't be too concerned yet.

 

[BrettHullsToe]

Blues had the same start last year, I wouldn't be too concerned yet.

They really didn't, the Stars are much worse. Dallas has to win the next 6 games straight to catch up to the Blues' record from last season in terms of standings points per games played.

 

[Frosty415]

Pavelski was bound to hit the wall

we been telling people he’s declining, even tho he scored a lot last year, the sharks system and Burns had a lot to do with it, he scores mostly garbage goals not clean wristers.

if Dallas doesn’t use him right expect an awful year from him.

that’s why I was on the EK65 > Pavs train, no matter the hate thrown towards EK.

 

[HabsMD97]

Stars don't have anywhere near the depth of St Louis also, the blues had terrible goaltending in the 1st half

 

[SladeWilson23]

Wait, what’s the 2?

How do you get OTLs in regulation?

It's regulation ties.

 

[serp]

This is where the problem is. The players who are paid big money have not played like the teams best players.

 

[a mangy Meowth]

I wonder what Jim Lites is gonna say

 

[serp]

Corey Perry to the rescue !

 

[Niten Ichi Ryu]

They're this years St.Louis. This is almost the exact same team last year that pushed the Stanley Cup champs harder than any other team, right to game 7 2nd overtime.
And watching Ben Bishop halt the flyers 40 shots today, it's inevitable they'll come back to form. Also Pavelski in mid-season form, and a growing Heiskanen, they'll wake up by December

Dallas vs Edmonton, WCF

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

Yeah, that’s ridiculous. I can’t imagine having watched more than a handful of Sharks games last season and reaching the conclusion that Pavelski was the driver in that relationship.

Out of curiosity, how did the model make the distinction? I’m genuinely curious what data could provide that conclusion.

As far as I can understand, the model uses only on-ice results, and not any individual numbers. And it's basically a regression model which attempts to isolate a player's impact on on-ice results.

Here is the description of his model: Model Description: Magnus 2

Here is Pavelski's isolated impact in 2018-2019:

Here is Burns's isolated impact in 2018-2019:

It's worth noting that the model is extremely favorable to forwards in general. The author of the model, Micah McCurdy has acknowledged this flaw in his model and explained why, but he has said he isn't sure how to fix it.

I agree with your conclusion - that anybody who watched the team would clearly reach the conclusion that Burns was the driving force behind that duo. And there are plenty of other statistics that point tot hat conclusion as well.

 

[Elysian]

Hopefully they're turning the corner, have won 3 in a row now.

 

[Unspecified]

Stars don't have anywhere near the depth of St Louis also, the blues had terrible goaltending in the 1st half

Sure they do, are they playing like it? No.

 

[MoPucks]

I honestly expected Dallas to win the division this year, so I'm definitely surprised by the bad start. I think they will turn it around though and make the playoffs.